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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $HD 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 22.57x
•10-Year Mean: 20.72x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.74%
•10-Year Mean: 5.12%

As you can see, $HD appears to be trading slightly above fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~8% LESS in earnings per share & ~7% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $HD is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Equivalents: $3.76B
•Long-Term Debt: $40.60B

$HD has an ok balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 10.90x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 56.7%
•2020: 45.3%
•2021: 38.2%
•2022: 50.7%
•2023: 44.7%
•2024: 39.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•In the thousands & negative in some years (due to heavy use of debt)

$HD has decent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $78.81B
•2024: $152.67B
•CAGR: 6.83%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $6.24B
•2024: $17.95B
•CAGR: 11.14%

LONG TERM DEBT🤔
•2014: $14.69B
•2024: $40.60B
•CAGR: 10.70%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $3.76
•2024: $15.11
•CAGR: 14.92%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.43B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.00B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~30%, $HD increased its EPS by ~43% (assuming 0 growth)

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $1.64
•2024: $8.52
•CAGR: 17.91%

MARGINS🆗
•LTM Gross Margins: 33.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 14.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 9.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~8% LESS in EPS & ~7% LESS FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $HD has to grow earnings at an 11.29% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (11.29%) required growth rate:

2025E: $15.35 (1.6% YoY) *FY January
2026E: $16.37 (6.6% YoY)
2027E: $17.56 (7.3% YoY)

$HD has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $HD ends 2027 with $17.56 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

23x P/E: $403.88💵 … ~8.7% CAGR

21x P/E: $368.76💵 … ~5.0% CAGR

20x P/E: $351.20💵 … ~3.1% CAGR

As you can see, EVEN when we assume 23x earnings — a multiple WELL above $HD mean (20.72x) & near the highest end of its range, $HD has subpar return potential

$HD also has some cyclicality to it & relying on estimates ~3 years from now adds a layer of risk (the further you extrapolate, the greater chance of error)

Given all this, and its hefty rising debt levels, $HD certainly doesn’t appear attractive today at $346.43💵

I’d reconsider $HD closer to $284💵 or at ~18.50x forward estimates (~18% below today’s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 20x end multiple in 2027

#stocks #investing

$HD reports Q1 2024 Earnings on Tuesday 05/14/2024 Before the Open
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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