Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $SBUX 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 21.32x
•10-Year Mean: 28.64x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.22%
•10-Year Mean: 3.17%

As you can see, $SBUX appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~34% MORE in earnings per share & ~33% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $SBUX is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Equivalents: $3.95B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.59B

$SBUX has a decent balance sheet, a BBB+ S&P Credit Rating & 10.92x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 34.9%
•2019: 76.4%
•2020: 9.0%
•2021: 25.5%
•2022: 29.1%
•2023: 33.2%

RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2018: 136.2%
•2019: (142.2%)
•2020: (13.2%)
•2021: (64.1%)
•2022: (46.9%)
•2023: (49.4%)

$SBUX has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $14.87B
•2023: $35.98B
•CAGR: 9.23%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $1.76B
•2023: $3.68B
•CAGR: 7.65%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.10
•2023: $3.54
•CAGR: 12.39%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.52B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.15B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~24%, $SBUX increased its EPS by ~31% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 27.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 15.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 11.5%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.45
•2023: $2.16
•CAGR: 16.98%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~34% MORE in EPS & ~33% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $SBUX has to grow earnings at an 10.62% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (10.13%) required growth rate:

2024E: $4.01 (13.3% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $4.65 (16.0% YoY)
2026E: $5.36 (15.3% YoY)

$SBUX has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, BUT let’s assume $SBUX ends 2026 with $5.10 in EPS (5% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

22x P/E: $112.20💵 … ~13.1% CAGR

21x P/E: $107.10💵 … ~11.0% CAGR

20x P/E: $102.00💵 … ~8.9% CAGR

As you can see EVEN when we assume a 20x - 21x multiple (a level that has rarely been breached in the past decade as you’ll see in the P/E chart) AND EVEN when we assume a 5% lower earnings estimate in 2026, $SBUX has attractive CAGR potential

So, there’s already a decent margin of safety 💪🏽

When we assume >22x (also well below its 10-year average and on the lower end of its valuation range), $SBUX has the potential to compound in the mid-teens

$SBUX appears to be an attractive consideration today at $88.00💵

$SBUX reports earnings today after close 🗓️

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Giuliano
It is a mistake to assume CAPs will be continuously maintained.
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The Long Investor
If $MSFT makes a new low below $388

Market correction has a high probability of following down next too.
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Brandon Beylo
Looks like a pod shop is blowing up that has my exact portfolio.

Can’t be because my names are overextend.

Anyone hearing anything?
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Brandon Beylo
Look at those outflows in Commodity ETFs.

I think there could be a massive reflexivity play here.

We’re approaching supply crises in multiple metals from Electrification, Military, and Bans.

Funds will then inevitably chase performance.

#commodities

H/t @RonStoeferle https://t.co/i0CdpFi2cQ
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Giuliano
I'll be doing research on Argentinian equities.

If you'd be interested in such a thing, or know someone who may, feel free to DM!
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The Long Investor
$PYPL

First Target hit 🎯 https://t.co/018vehyLee

$PYPL very nice test of the 50 and 200 Day MA for support and bounced

Moving well leading up to earnings tomorrow before the market opens.

First Target is at $71 if this gets a clean breakout.

They need a flawless report now, no surprises and improving margins. https://t.co/nPgUApsqHh - The Long Investor
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Giuliano
Writing weekly articles was fundamental for my understanding.

The next stage of growth will come from infrequent publishing, but with higher levels of depth.

I suspect many intellectual breakthroughs will be facilitated by this new path.
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The Long Investor
$GOOG it would be inappropriate of me to highlight the performance of $GOOG since it earnings report.

Completely inappropriate.
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The Long Investor
$SPY and $QQQ confirmed to have rejected at the 50 Day MA now

This was the first test, let's see if it can make another attempt

$MSFT, $BRK, $AAPL, $TSLA, $COST, $DIS, $BTC, $META, $NFLX

Have all tested their 50 Day MA from below and rejected now.

$MSFT is the first Mega Cap to TEST and reject at the 50 DAY MA.

$SPY also tested the 50 Day MA at the opening and held underneath....I think it is too early to confirm this is a rejection so far.

$AAPL and $TSLA have done enormous work to carry the market today. https://t.co/KoJgDuSIpt - The Long Investor
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 Q-Cap 
$AMZN

FCF last 5Y: $72.8B

FCF next 5Y: $515.2B

Lord have mercy

Source: Factset https://t.co/DprN5TnAhb
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