Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @altcap: As investors, we are thrilled $META is pressing their AI advantage, widening their moat & building the AI infra for sustained high growth. This is what great leaders do. Drive efficiency AND long term growth by doubling down on the AI that is already transforming the biz. ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€ https://t.co/w13JEg8EeK
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AkhenOsiris
$ZS Introduces ZDX Copilot

Zscaler, Inc. today announced groundbreaking innovations - ZDX Copilot, Hosted Monitoring, and Data Explorer - to its Zscaler Digital Experienceโ„ข (ZDXโ„ข) service. The new ZDX Copilot, an AI assistant, instantly analyzes and harnesses knowledge from over 500 trillion data points daily across users, devices, networks, and applications, to provide IT operations, service desk, and security teams insights they need related to digital experience and performance. Teams can ask sequences of questions to effectively converse with Copilot, which uses Generative AI, to review high-level trends and progressively narrow results down to specific actionable insights.

ZDX Copilot delivers numerous benefits across IT and security:

- Service desk teams can isolate root cause of user complaints to efficiently triage tickets, and collaborate with other teams; they can also easily look up technical information
- Networking teams can conversationally perform deep analysis across networks, applications and regions to identify trends or find opportunities for optimization
Security teams can ensure that their services are performant at all times, and instantly expose root cause of issues and affected parties when performance lags
- IT leaders can conveniently extract and present digital experience trends and performance insights to show progress, or to identify new opportunities

ZDX Copilot also automates common configuration tasks like setting alerts, when asked. Its versatility can help your IT teams significantly improve efficiency, and collaboration across IT operations, service desk, and security. Every customer is equipped with their own Copilot keeping their companyโ€™s data private and secure.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @qcapital2020: $META

My 2 cent on the post earning move (other than it was already up 450% from the October 2022 bottom without any meaningful pullback).

Shareholders have PTSD from Zuck overspending on the Metaverse ambitions in 2021-2022 and running a huge loss with Reality Labs with no achievable timeframe for ROI.

In essence , he was investing for the future but with little to no short or medium term ROI and the long term was also very questionable. The vision wasnโ€™t clear. This caused a serious and justifiable short term repricing of the stock in 2022. Markets being markets they overshot to the downside given at one point a 8x Operating Income multiple.

Fast forward to todays earnings. Numbers for the quarter were fine. The issue comes mainly imho from shareholders listening to Zuck talk about another ยซ investment cycle ยป with no short term ROI in sight. But I think where the market mightโ€™ve gotten it wrong today was that this AI infrastructure spent will have a much shorter timeframe and much more quantifiable return for the business. Meta AI has already been integrated and as Zuck mentioned AI is being used to target ads almost to the tune of 50% of feeds. Letโ€™s not forget ads are 95%+ of revenues and any meaningful upgrade through AI for ads can have a significant impact to the bottom line.

My guess is this investment cycle will be somewhat long perhaps 3-5yrs but the ROI will be a lot more quantifiable , justifiable and crucial to the next leg of the life cycle for the company. This does not feel like the Metaverse 2.0.
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The Long Investor
Just because you have a cash position it does not mean you need to spend it.
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
$BTC no changes to the chart below.

Since then the price has tested the 50 Day MA and rejected.

Bitcoin is following the market.

Itโ€™s not considered a safe haven for me but it will still present a great opportunity when Wave C completes

$BTC let there be no doubt who has been correct on $BTC for the last year.

Chart below on the 16th of March and today, with no changes.

Wave A is currently underway, 0.38 fib is the target. https://t.co/GcKUVTzYtM
- The Long Investor
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
RT @TheLongInvest: $BTC I brought you up from $19,000 to $73,000

Now I'll bring you down.

This pull back is an opportunity, when this ABC correction is complete, $BTC will start its next aggressive move up. https://t.co/7zGJoZ1ZFV
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Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
Follow me for more tennis insights. https://t.co/OC2HJAsPGI

@TheTennisLetter NGL, this match will be closer than most people think.

Will delete if wrong, obv.
- Brandon Beylo
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 29.33x
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 34.93x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 3.64%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 3.37%

As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% MORE in FCF per share ๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $MSCI is a good business

BALANCE SHEET๐Ÿ†—
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $519.31M
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $4.50B

$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.80x FFO Interest Coverate

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2019: 23.4%
โ€ข2020: 28.6%
โ€ข2021: 26.5%
โ€ข2022: 33.0%
โ€ข2023: 35.2%

RETURN ON EQUITY๐Ÿ†—
โ€ข2019: (463.5%)
โ€ข2020: (231.5%)
โ€ข2021: (239.3%)
โ€ข2022: (148.6%)
โ€ข2023: (131.4%)

*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt

$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2013: $913.36M
โ€ข2023: $2,528.92M
โ€ขCAGR: 10.72%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2013: $280.93M
โ€ข2023: $1,213.27M
โ€ขCAGR: 15.75%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $2.16
โ€ข2023: $13.52
โ€ขCAGR: 20.13%

SHARE BUYBACKSโœ…
โ€ข2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 79.60M

By reducing its shares outstanding 34.2%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51.9% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 82.2%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 53.9%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 44.6%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~9% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 14.67% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.67%) required growth rate:

2024E: $14.84 (9.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.07 (15.0% YoY)
2026E: $19.39 (13.6% YoY)

$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโ€™s assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.39 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

32x P/E: $620.48๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~14.6% CAGR

31x P/E: $601.09๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~13.2% CAGR

30x P/E: $581.70๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~11.9% CAGR

29x P/E: $562.31๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.5% CAGR

28x P/E: $542.92๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~9.1% CAGR

As you can see, $MSCI appears to have double-digit return potential if we assume >29x earnings, a level of fundamental support (first green line in P/E chart) & a level below its 10-year average multiple of 34.93x

Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety

Today at $446๐Ÿ’ต my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment

Knowing that $MSCI could trade down a bit more (closer to 25x as youโ€™ll see in second green line in P/E chart) I would piece into the position

In other words, if I wanted to allocate 5% to $MSCI, Iโ€™d likely look to initiate a 3% - 3.5% allocation & leave room to add more & make it 5% if we see $MSCI trade between $380๐Ÿ’ต - $400๐Ÿ’ต

#stocks #investing
___

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
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Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
We are long Sylvania Platinum $SLP.L

SLP is a South African PGM miner.

It's one of the lowest-cost producers globally with half its market cap in cash w/ no debt.

You get buybacks + divvys too.

If $PGMs recover, it could print 140% of EV in FCF.
https://t.co/eu67o3joqY
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Antonio Linares
RT @raja_babu_ji: @alc2022 Truer words were never spoken, its very easy to stay bearish and comment from the sidelines when you dont have any skin in the game, invest your money , make claims and come out successful on the other side.
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Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
Here's my write-up on Sylvania Platinum $SLP.L.

It's a hated commodity in a hated industry in a hated country.

SLP has half its market cap in cash with no debt and a history of shareholder returns.

Could print 140%+ of EV at normalized PGM prices.๐Ÿ‘‡
https://t.co/eu67o3joqY

Tomorrow I'm releasing my write-up on one of my favorite mining stocks.

It's a PGM miner with the following characteristics:

โ€ข Lowest-quartile AISCs
โ€ข Half its market cap in cash w/ no debt
โ€ข Buying back stock
โ€ข Dividend paying
โ€ข Insiders own shares

My other deep dives ๐Ÿ‘‡
- Brandon Beylo
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