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๎จ€ Q-Cap ๎จ€
Investing is easy folks

Just buy back 62.4M S/O in the last 10 years

Reduce your share count by 50.56% in 10 years

Watch your stock go up +653% in 10 years

$ORLY https://t.co/YYaROAJuR1
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The Long Investor
Because there is no greater return than a book.

An expert can spend years writing a book and you can buy it for $14

All their hard work can be transferred to you within a week or so.

Repeat this process every week.

personal spending on books https://t.co/xVdVodN3j4
- Sam Ro ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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Giuliano
Having an answer does not mean one effectively solved a problem.
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Brandon Beylo
The US has spent the past 85 years outsourcing critical mineral production.

Which is a problem in a world of escalating military conflict.

As of March 2023, the value of stockpiles was $912.3M.

That's just 1.2% of the stockpile's 1962 value of approximately $77.1B. https://t.co/0dSTc6GgKf
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: 10 Quality Stocks That Have Grown EPS At A >10% CAGR Last 10 Years | LTM ROIC ๐Ÿ’ต

๐Ÿ“ฒ Lam Research $LRCX
โ€ขEPS CAGR: 31.4%
โ€ขLTM ROIC: 30.5%

๐Ÿ’ณ Mastercard $MA
โ€ขEPS CAGR: 16.7%
โ€ขLTM ROIC: 61.1%

๐Ÿ–จ๏ธ ASML Holding $ASML
โ€ขEPS CAGR: 23.8%
โ€ขLTM ROIC: 48.7%

๐Ÿš— Copart $CPRT
โ€ขEPS CAGR: 22.1%
โ€ขLTM ROIC: 22.6%

๐Ÿ–ฑ๏ธ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
โ€ขEPS CAGR: 10.2%
โ€ขLTM ROIC: 28.1%

๐ŸŽ Apple $AAPL
โ€ขEPS CAGR: 15.7%
โ€ขLTM ROIC: 65.1%

๐Ÿฆฎ Zoetis $ZTS
โ€ขEPS CAGR: 14.1%
โ€ขLTM ROIC: 25.7%

๐Ÿ”ฉ Fastenal $FAST
โ€ขEPS CAGR: 10.2%
โ€ขLTM ROIC: 38.3%

๐Ÿฉป UnitedHealth $UNH
โ€ขEPS CAGR: 16.4%
โ€ขLTM ROIC: 19.1%

๐Ÿ‘œ Moรซt Hennessy $LVMH $LVMUY
โ€ขEPS CAGR: 16.2%
โ€ขLTM ROIC: 21.0%

#stocks #investing
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Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
Supply Risk For Critical Raw Materials in Military Applications

What metal do you see in the "Very High Risk" category more than any other?

Graphite.
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The Long Investor
RT @VladBastion: ๐Ÿ“ŠForecasted GDP Growth in 2024 by IMF:

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณIndia +6.8%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณChina +4.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ชUnited Arab Emirates +3.5%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บRussian Federation+3.2%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑPoland+3.1%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ทTรผrkiye +3.1%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUnited States +2.7%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆSaudi Arabia +2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝMexico+2.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ทKorea +2.3%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ทBrazil +2.2%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธSpain +1.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑIsrael +1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บAustralia +1.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญSwitzerland +1.3%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆCanada +1.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ตJapan +0.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡นItaly +0.7%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทFrance +0.7%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑNetherlands +0.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡งUnited Kingdom +0.5%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ชSweden +0.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ชGermany +0.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ทArgentina -2.8%
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Antonio Linares
Extending one more hour due to high demand.

My 2 Hour Deep Diver course is selling for $150 instead of $199 for the next 3 hours only.

Donโ€™t miss out.
- Antonio Linares
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $SBUX ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 20.26x
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 28.66x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 4.38%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 3.16%

As you can see, $SBUX appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~41% MORE in earnings per share & ~38% MORE in FCF per share๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $SBUX is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET๐Ÿ†—
โ€ขCash & Equivalents: $3.95B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $13.59B

$SBUX has a decent balance sheet, a BBB+ S&P Credit Rating & 10.92x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2018: 34.9%
โ€ข2019: 76.4%
โ€ข2020: 9.0%
โ€ข2021: 25.5%
โ€ข2022: 29.1%
โ€ข2023: 33.2%

RETURN ON EQUITY๐Ÿ†—
โ€ข2018: 136.2%
โ€ข2019: (142.2%)
โ€ข2020: (13.2%)
โ€ข2021: (64.1%)
โ€ข2022: (46.9%)
โ€ข2023: (49.4%)

$SBUX has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2013: $14.87B
โ€ข2023: $35.98B
โ€ขCAGR: 9.23%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2013: $1.76B
โ€ข2023: $3.68B
โ€ขCAGR: 7.65%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $1.10
โ€ข2023: $3.54
โ€ขCAGR: 12.39%

SHARE BUYBACKSโœ…
โ€ข2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.52B
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.15B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~24%, $SBUX increased its EPS by ~31% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 27.4%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 15.4%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 11.5%

PAID DIVIDENDSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $0.45
โ€ข2023: $2.16
โ€ขCAGR: 16.98%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~41% MORE in EPS & ~38% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $SBUX has to grow earnings at an 10.13% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (10.13%) required growth rate:

2024E: $4.04 (14.2% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $4.70 (16.2% YoY)
2026E: $5.42 (15.4% YoY)

$SBUX has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $SBUX ends 2026 with $5.42 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

22x P/E: $119.24๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~16.1% CAGR

21x P/E: $113.82๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~14.1% CAGR

20x P/E: $108.40๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~12.0% CAGR

19x P/E: $102.98๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~9.9% CAGR

As you can see, EVEN when we assume a 20x multiple (a level that has rarely been breached in the past decade as youโ€™ll see in the P/E chart), $SBUX has attractive CAGR potential

Even at 19x earnings โ€” a multiple that $SBUX hasnโ€™t traded at since 2010 โ€” $SBUX has near double digit potential

So, thereโ€™s already a decent margin of safety ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿฝ

When we assume 21x - 22x (also well below its 10-year average and on the lower end of its valuation range), $SBUX has the potential to compound in the mid-teens

$SBUX appears to be an attractive consideration today at $86.00๐Ÿ’ต

#stocks #investing
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
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Brandon Beylo
Junior mining stocks trying to close green during a commodity bull cycle. https://t.co/oT4zvPuqmu
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