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The Transcript
RT @TheTranscript_: $KO Coca-Cola CEO: "If you take a step back, we have a long track record of navigating complex external dynamics to hold or grow volume each year. Over the past 50 years, annual volume declined only once, and that was during the pandemic." https://t.co/BHfLnG5L6C
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RT @TheTranscript_: $KO Coca-Cola CEO: "If you take a step back, we have a long track record of navigating complex external dynamics to hold or grow volume each year. Over the past 50 years, annual volume declined only once, and that was during the pandemic." https://t.co/BHfLnG5L6C
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Jukan
《GF Securities Overseas Electronics & Communications》
Onto Innovation 4Q25 Review: Upside Potential Remains
Maintaining Buy rating, target price raised to $282: Onto Innovation's 4Q25 revenue came in at $267M, largely in line with expectations. The company guided 1Q26 revenue to a range of $275–285M, with 2Q26 revenue expected to surpass $300M. Memory and GAA capacity buildouts, combined with the company's continued market share gains in 2.5D/3D, underpin robust growth. Management indicated that in 2026, advanced packaging revenue will grow 30% and advanced node revenue will grow 15%. G5 qualification is expected to be completed in 1H26, and potential G5 applications present additional upside to earnings. We forecast Onto Innovation's 2026/2027 revenue at $1.3B/$1.5B respectively, and derive our $282 target price based on 30x 2027E P/E.
Market share gains accelerating: The company's market share expansion is progressing well. Management announced a large-scale HBM Volume Purchase Agreement (VPA) with a leading HBM customer worth over $240M, of which more than $60M is earmarked specifically for 3D bump metrology. This single HBM order alone is nearly equivalent to the company's entire AI packaging revenue for full-year 2025. In CoWoS, G5 has completed qualification at a foundry customer, and the company is recapturing sub-micron inspection market share. Additionally, Firefly and Iris thin-film metrology continue to drive share gains.
New catalysts emerging for 2027: We highlight several new growth vectors for Onto Innovation. 1) SoIC: NVIDIA's Feynman platform will adopt a 3D architecture combining SoIC and CoWoS. SoIC is poised to become a core growth driver in 2027, and the company's G5 product holds distinct advantages in both sub-micron inspection and 3D applications. 2) Panel-level packaging: Onto Innovation secured orders for JetStep and 8 Firefly systems in 4Q25 to support capacity at a panel-level packaging facility; G5 equipment is expected to be delivered to TSMC by year-end for a panel packaging pilot line. 3) CPO: The company has initiated early-stage engagements with CPO customers, including V-groove metrology solutions. CPO is expected to become a meaningful revenue contributor starting in 2027.
$ONTO
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《GF Securities Overseas Electronics & Communications》
Onto Innovation 4Q25 Review: Upside Potential Remains
Maintaining Buy rating, target price raised to $282: Onto Innovation's 4Q25 revenue came in at $267M, largely in line with expectations. The company guided 1Q26 revenue to a range of $275–285M, with 2Q26 revenue expected to surpass $300M. Memory and GAA capacity buildouts, combined with the company's continued market share gains in 2.5D/3D, underpin robust growth. Management indicated that in 2026, advanced packaging revenue will grow 30% and advanced node revenue will grow 15%. G5 qualification is expected to be completed in 1H26, and potential G5 applications present additional upside to earnings. We forecast Onto Innovation's 2026/2027 revenue at $1.3B/$1.5B respectively, and derive our $282 target price based on 30x 2027E P/E.
Market share gains accelerating: The company's market share expansion is progressing well. Management announced a large-scale HBM Volume Purchase Agreement (VPA) with a leading HBM customer worth over $240M, of which more than $60M is earmarked specifically for 3D bump metrology. This single HBM order alone is nearly equivalent to the company's entire AI packaging revenue for full-year 2025. In CoWoS, G5 has completed qualification at a foundry customer, and the company is recapturing sub-micron inspection market share. Additionally, Firefly and Iris thin-film metrology continue to drive share gains.
New catalysts emerging for 2027: We highlight several new growth vectors for Onto Innovation. 1) SoIC: NVIDIA's Feynman platform will adopt a 3D architecture combining SoIC and CoWoS. SoIC is poised to become a core growth driver in 2027, and the company's G5 product holds distinct advantages in both sub-micron inspection and 3D applications. 2) Panel-level packaging: Onto Innovation secured orders for JetStep and 8 Firefly systems in 4Q25 to support capacity at a panel-level packaging facility; G5 equipment is expected to be delivered to TSMC by year-end for a panel packaging pilot line. 3) CPO: The company has initiated early-stage engagements with CPO customers, including V-groove metrology solutions. CPO is expected to become a meaningful revenue contributor starting in 2027.
$ONTO
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Offshore
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NecoKronos
Why I love trading the Daily Open Revisit 👇
Think of a Naked Daily Open as a spring being coiled; the further price moves away without a revisit, the more tension builds for a snap-back.
Predatory algorithms seek out these "naked" levels because they represent the highest concentration of retail risk on the intraday chart.
This revisit isn't a trend change, but a high-velocity "stop run" used to rebalance the market before the next leg up.
#BTC
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Why I love trading the Daily Open Revisit 👇
Think of a Naked Daily Open as a spring being coiled; the further price moves away without a revisit, the more tension builds for a snap-back.
Predatory algorithms seek out these "naked" levels because they represent the highest concentration of retail risk on the intraday chart.
This revisit isn't a trend change, but a high-velocity "stop run" used to rebalance the market before the next leg up.
#BTC
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God of Prompt
Look at the red dots. That tiny sliver at the bottom right.
That’s the 2-5 million people actually building with AI coding tools. Out of 8.1 billion.
If you’re reading this tweet, you’re statistically in the top 0.04% of AI adoption on Earth. https://t.co/6GK4odqvyC
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Look at the red dots. That tiny sliver at the bottom right.
That’s the 2-5 million people actually building with AI coding tools. Out of 8.1 billion.
If you’re reading this tweet, you’re statistically in the top 0.04% of AI adoption on Earth. https://t.co/6GK4odqvyC
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kjnk
Highest-alpha accounts on X right now are zephyr, jukan, paulo, serenity, illiquid, and all the other AI supply chain guys. But I am not part of this tribe. Whoever is just blindly following these tribe leaders are, in fact, likely going to be the biggest losers this year.
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Highest-alpha accounts on X right now are zephyr, jukan, paulo, serenity, illiquid, and all the other AI supply chain guys. But I am not part of this tribe. Whoever is just blindly following these tribe leaders are, in fact, likely going to be the biggest losers this year.
Most people organize into tribes because it is in their DNA.
When people do this, they stop seeking truth or what's right. They just go along with all of their tribes ideas.
People have a real threat response when their tribe gets attacked, because it was a matter of life and death for so long.
I don't think people can overcome this. It's just way too hardwired. And so I just avoid them. And again, this is most people. Instead, I try to associate and work with people who are far less this way than average, even if everyone does it to some degree. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
David Orr (@orrdavid) on X
Most people organize into tribes because it is in their DNA.
When people do this, they stop seeking truth or what's right. They just go along with all of their tribes ideas.
People have a real threat response when their tribe gets attacked, because it…
When people do this, they stop seeking truth or what's right. They just go along with all of their tribes ideas.
People have a real threat response when their tribe gets attacked, because it…
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Elon Musk: “When something is important enough, you do it in spite of fear”
When asked how he can be so fearless investing his entire net worth into Tesla and SpaceX when everyone told him it was a crazy idea, Elon responds:
“It’s not as though I have the absence of fear. I feel it quite strongly. But there are times when something is important enough - you believe in it enough - that you do it in spite of fear… It’s normal to feel fear. There’d have to be something mentally wrong if you didn’t feel fear.”
He finds fatalism helpful for dealing with fear:
“If you just accept the probabilities, that diminishes fear. When starting SpaceX, I thought the odds of success were less than 10%. And I just accepted that I would probably just lose everything. But if we could just move the ball forward - even if we died - maybe some other company could pick up the baton and keep moving it forward. So that would still do some good. Same with Tesla - I thought the odds of a car company succeeding were extremely low.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
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Elon Musk: “When something is important enough, you do it in spite of fear”
When asked how he can be so fearless investing his entire net worth into Tesla and SpaceX when everyone told him it was a crazy idea, Elon responds:
“It’s not as though I have the absence of fear. I feel it quite strongly. But there are times when something is important enough - you believe in it enough - that you do it in spite of fear… It’s normal to feel fear. There’d have to be something mentally wrong if you didn’t feel fear.”
He finds fatalism helpful for dealing with fear:
“If you just accept the probabilities, that diminishes fear. When starting SpaceX, I thought the odds of success were less than 10%. And I just accepted that I would probably just lose everything. But if we could just move the ball forward - even if we died - maybe some other company could pick up the baton and keep moving it forward. So that would still do some good. Same with Tesla - I thought the odds of a car company succeeding were extremely low.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
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Offshore
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Moon Dev
No one would ever dare to tell you this about openclaw
But I will https://t.co/iBERgMf0kR
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No one would ever dare to tell you this about openclaw
But I will https://t.co/iBERgMf0kR
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Offshore
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Pristine Capital
RT @realpristinecap: The US is weighing limited military strikes to pressure Iran into a new nuclear deal.
To back this up, the Pentagon has orchestrated a massive deployment of military assets across the Middle East.
But experts are raising a red flag.
They warn that bombing Iran in the middle of active negotiations could have the exact opposite effect.
Instead of forcing a signature, military threats risk making Tehran walk away entirely.
The ultimate risk is derailing the deal and triggering a new, destabilizing conflict in the region.
High stakes diplomacy is in play 🌍
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RT @realpristinecap: The US is weighing limited military strikes to pressure Iran into a new nuclear deal.
To back this up, the Pentagon has orchestrated a massive deployment of military assets across the Middle East.
But experts are raising a red flag.
They warn that bombing Iran in the middle of active negotiations could have the exact opposite effect.
Instead of forcing a signature, military threats risk making Tehran walk away entirely.
The ultimate risk is derailing the deal and triggering a new, destabilizing conflict in the region.
High stakes diplomacy is in play 🌍
tweet
The Transcript
RT @TheTranscript_: $CMG CEO: Core Chipotle customers skew affluent and digitally engaged.
“We learned that 60% of our core users are over $100,000 a year in household income… That gives us confidence that we can lean into that group in a more meaningful way.”
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RT @TheTranscript_: $CMG CEO: Core Chipotle customers skew affluent and digitally engaged.
“We learned that 60% of our core users are over $100,000 a year in household income… That gives us confidence that we can lean into that group in a more meaningful way.”
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Bourbon Capital
RT @BourbonCap: 5 Small-Cap Stocks with Strong Upside Potential
1. $SMR - NuScale
NuScale is the leading pure-play developer of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) and is uniquely positioned to benefit from rising demand for clean, reliable baseload energy, particularly as AI data centers and advanced manufacturing drive structural growth in electricity consumption.
Governments and utilities are increasingly prioritizing decarbonization while maintaining grid stability. SMRs are gaining momentum because they provide carbon-free baseload power with smaller footprints, faster deployment timelines, and enhanced safety features. This shift is translating into multi-year, multi-billion-dollar deployment opportunities.
NuScale holds a decisive regulatory advantage as the only SMR developer with full design certification from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). This significantly de-risks execution and accelerates commercialization relative to competitors.
The agreement involving ENTRA1 Energy and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for up to 6 gigawatts of SMR capacity (equivalent to 72 NuScale Power Modules), represents the largest SMR deployment program ever announced in U.S. history.
ENTRA1’s inclusion in the U.S.–Japan energy framework agreement could unlock up to $25 billion in investment for baseload energy projects, strengthening NuScale’s global commercialization pathway.
NuScale targets first commercial power around 2030, supported by rising demand for reliable, carbon-free energy and its ability to offer behind-the-meter solutions for data centers and industrial customers. Importantly, the company maintains a relatively clean balance sheet while revenue growth is expected to accelerate materially as projects advance.
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RT @BourbonCap: 5 Small-Cap Stocks with Strong Upside Potential
1. $SMR - NuScale
NuScale is the leading pure-play developer of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) and is uniquely positioned to benefit from rising demand for clean, reliable baseload energy, particularly as AI data centers and advanced manufacturing drive structural growth in electricity consumption.
Governments and utilities are increasingly prioritizing decarbonization while maintaining grid stability. SMRs are gaining momentum because they provide carbon-free baseload power with smaller footprints, faster deployment timelines, and enhanced safety features. This shift is translating into multi-year, multi-billion-dollar deployment opportunities.
NuScale holds a decisive regulatory advantage as the only SMR developer with full design certification from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). This significantly de-risks execution and accelerates commercialization relative to competitors.
The agreement involving ENTRA1 Energy and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for up to 6 gigawatts of SMR capacity (equivalent to 72 NuScale Power Modules), represents the largest SMR deployment program ever announced in U.S. history.
ENTRA1’s inclusion in the U.S.–Japan energy framework agreement could unlock up to $25 billion in investment for baseload energy projects, strengthening NuScale’s global commercialization pathway.
NuScale targets first commercial power around 2030, supported by rising demand for reliable, carbon-free energy and its ability to offer behind-the-meter solutions for data centers and industrial customers. Importantly, the company maintains a relatively clean balance sheet while revenue growth is expected to accelerate materially as projects advance.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @qualityvalueinv: New post today - stock write-up on Greens Co Ltd, a Japanese hotel operator. Link below. ⬇️ https://t.co/9n8SNCljFN
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RT @qualityvalueinv: New post today - stock write-up on Greens Co Ltd, a Japanese hotel operator. Link below. ⬇️ https://t.co/9n8SNCljFN
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Lumida Wealth Management
MidTerm Election: A Danger For Markets?
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged roughly +9.3% annually.
In midterm years, that drops to about +3%.
More important than the average return is the path.
The average peak-to-trough drawdown across all years is ~-13.7%.
In midterm years, it deepens to roughly -17%.
Half of the 20%+ intra-year drawdowns since 1945 occurred in midterm years.
How do you position in this regime?
Find out in today's newsletter: https://t.co/2LFZQ332rY
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MidTerm Election: A Danger For Markets?
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged roughly +9.3% annually.
In midterm years, that drops to about +3%.
More important than the average return is the path.
The average peak-to-trough drawdown across all years is ~-13.7%.
In midterm years, it deepens to roughly -17%.
Half of the 20%+ intra-year drawdowns since 1945 occurred in midterm years.
How do you position in this regime?
Find out in today's newsletter: https://t.co/2LFZQ332rY
tweet