Offshore
Video
Moon Dev
now my 6 opus's and i will be monitored by an ai agent who will cook up projects
and send those projects will be executed autonomously by my 5 openclaws
things are accelerating... https://t.co/kkdgT739S1
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now my 6 opus's and i will be monitored by an ai agent who will cook up projects
and send those projects will be executed autonomously by my 5 openclaws
things are accelerating... https://t.co/kkdgT739S1
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Offshore
Photo
Jukan
"Targeting 50% Semiconductor Operating Margin"… Samsung Restructures Product Portfolio
Samsung Electronics' DS (Device Solutions) division, which oversees the semiconductor business, is restructuring its product portfolio with a target of achieving operating margins above 50%. This is a strategic move to dramatically improve profitability, which had been sluggish through the first half of last year, with efforts to maximize operating profit expected to continue in line with rising memory prices.
According to industry sources on the 18th, Samsung Electronics' DS division has decided to pursue a product portfolio strategy aimed at substantially boosting profitability. The core objective is securing a 50% operating margin. The essence of the plan is to shift the center of gravity in production and sales toward products with operating margins of 50% or above.
This is a highly unusual undertaking. Many companies employ product mix strategies that optimize by segment and compose portfolios around high-value-added products. However, setting a specific operating margin target signals the need for an aggressive overhaul of product strategy.
An industry insider familiar with the matter said, "The focus will be on concentrating capabilities around high-margin products, with products below 50% operating margin seeing production cuts or exclusion from the core portfolio. Production line adjustments and sales strategy revisions could follow accordingly."
Attention is on whether Samsung's 1c DRAM — the 10nm-class 6th-generation DRAM for which the company is aggressively ramping capacity — will become a prime example. Final product allocation could vary depending on yield and profitability.
Yield — the proportion of usable chips from production — is directly tied to operating profit. Higher yields mean higher operating margins, but until stable yields are secured, it is critical to use product mix strategies to lift profitability.
The 1c DRAM yield is currently reported at around 60%, still short of the stable range of 80–90%. As a result, DRAM allocation is expected to be differentiated by application — HBM, server, smartphone, and PC.
Server DRAM currently commands operating margins above 50%, driven by strong demand. HBM, on the other hand, is expected to carry lower margins for now when factoring in finished-product yields. The likely approach is to prioritize server DRAM supply to boost profitability first, then increase HBM production weighting once yields stabilize.
Another industry source noted, "Given that Samsung's DRAM and HBM supply volumes could be adjusted, the market impact will be significant," adding that "price changes will be inevitable depending on supply volumes."
For NAND, production is expected to shift toward the latest, most profitable products — primarily 8th-generation (V8) and 9th-generation (V9) NAND. Samsung is currently ramping V8 NAND utilization rates while accelerating the transition to V9 to expand production capacity. Conversion investment from legacy generations to V9 is progressing rapidly.
In the System LSI (foundry) segment, the company is expected to focus on securing orders at the 4nm, 5nm, and 8nm nodes, where stable yields and assured profitability can be achieved. For the leading-edge 2nm node, the near-term priority is expected to be stabilizing yields and advancing the technology.
This strategic push is interpreted as an effort to reverse the operating profit decline that persisted through the first half of last year. Samsung recorded single-digit operating margins through Q2 last year. While margins began recovering from Q3, they still trail SK Hynix — Samsung's Q4 operating margin was 37.27% versus SK Hynix's 58.39%.
On top of this, the strategy incorporates efforts to maximize the earnings structure in response to the semiconductor supercycle. With AI infrastructure investment expanding, memory supply is failing to keep pace with demand, keeping prices on a sustained upward trajectory. Anal[...]
"Targeting 50% Semiconductor Operating Margin"… Samsung Restructures Product Portfolio
Samsung Electronics' DS (Device Solutions) division, which oversees the semiconductor business, is restructuring its product portfolio with a target of achieving operating margins above 50%. This is a strategic move to dramatically improve profitability, which had been sluggish through the first half of last year, with efforts to maximize operating profit expected to continue in line with rising memory prices.
According to industry sources on the 18th, Samsung Electronics' DS division has decided to pursue a product portfolio strategy aimed at substantially boosting profitability. The core objective is securing a 50% operating margin. The essence of the plan is to shift the center of gravity in production and sales toward products with operating margins of 50% or above.
This is a highly unusual undertaking. Many companies employ product mix strategies that optimize by segment and compose portfolios around high-value-added products. However, setting a specific operating margin target signals the need for an aggressive overhaul of product strategy.
An industry insider familiar with the matter said, "The focus will be on concentrating capabilities around high-margin products, with products below 50% operating margin seeing production cuts or exclusion from the core portfolio. Production line adjustments and sales strategy revisions could follow accordingly."
Attention is on whether Samsung's 1c DRAM — the 10nm-class 6th-generation DRAM for which the company is aggressively ramping capacity — will become a prime example. Final product allocation could vary depending on yield and profitability.
Yield — the proportion of usable chips from production — is directly tied to operating profit. Higher yields mean higher operating margins, but until stable yields are secured, it is critical to use product mix strategies to lift profitability.
The 1c DRAM yield is currently reported at around 60%, still short of the stable range of 80–90%. As a result, DRAM allocation is expected to be differentiated by application — HBM, server, smartphone, and PC.
Server DRAM currently commands operating margins above 50%, driven by strong demand. HBM, on the other hand, is expected to carry lower margins for now when factoring in finished-product yields. The likely approach is to prioritize server DRAM supply to boost profitability first, then increase HBM production weighting once yields stabilize.
Another industry source noted, "Given that Samsung's DRAM and HBM supply volumes could be adjusted, the market impact will be significant," adding that "price changes will be inevitable depending on supply volumes."
For NAND, production is expected to shift toward the latest, most profitable products — primarily 8th-generation (V8) and 9th-generation (V9) NAND. Samsung is currently ramping V8 NAND utilization rates while accelerating the transition to V9 to expand production capacity. Conversion investment from legacy generations to V9 is progressing rapidly.
In the System LSI (foundry) segment, the company is expected to focus on securing orders at the 4nm, 5nm, and 8nm nodes, where stable yields and assured profitability can be achieved. For the leading-edge 2nm node, the near-term priority is expected to be stabilizing yields and advancing the technology.
This strategic push is interpreted as an effort to reverse the operating profit decline that persisted through the first half of last year. Samsung recorded single-digit operating margins through Q2 last year. While margins began recovering from Q3, they still trail SK Hynix — Samsung's Q4 operating margin was 37.27% versus SK Hynix's 58.39%.
On top of this, the strategy incorporates efforts to maximize the earnings structure in response to the semiconductor supercycle. With AI infrastructure investment expanding, memory supply is failing to keep pace with demand, keeping prices on a sustained upward trajectory. Anal[...]
Offshore
Jukan "Targeting 50% Semiconductor Operating Margin"… Samsung Restructures Product Portfolio Samsung Electronics' DS (Device Solutions) division, which oversees the semiconductor business, is restructuring its product portfolio with a target of achieving…
ysts note that the goal is to maximize profitability by reshaping the product portfolio while demand remains strong.
The new strategy is expected to remain effective through this year. The industry expects memory prices to continue rising through year-end. Signs of a moderation in the uptrend are unlikely to emerge until after the new manufacturing lines currently being prepared by memory makers come fully online toward year-end.
A Samsung Electronics spokesperson said, "We plan to pursue a product portfolio strategy to enhance profitability, but we cannot confirm specific figures."
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The new strategy is expected to remain effective through this year. The industry expects memory prices to continue rising through year-end. Signs of a moderation in the uptrend are unlikely to emerge until after the new manufacturing lines currently being prepared by memory makers come fully online toward year-end.
A Samsung Electronics spokesperson said, "We plan to pursue a product portfolio strategy to enhance profitability, but we cannot confirm specific figures."
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Offshore
Photo
DAIR.AI
Current LLM agents treat memory, learning, and personalization as a unified capability.
But they shouldn't.
MAPLE proposes separating these into specialized sub-agents.
> Memory manages storage and retrieval.
> Learning extracts insights asynchronously.
> Personalization applies knowledge in real-time within context constraints.
This results in a 14.6% improvement in personalization score compared to a stateless baseline, with trait incorporation jumping from 45% to 75% on the MAPLE-Personas benchmark.
As agents move toward long-term user relationships, treating personalization as a first-class architectural concern rather than an afterthought will be essential.
Paper: https://t.co/DJRzHA4dWL
Learn to build effective AI agents in our academy: https://t.co/LRnpZN7L4c
tweet
Current LLM agents treat memory, learning, and personalization as a unified capability.
But they shouldn't.
MAPLE proposes separating these into specialized sub-agents.
> Memory manages storage and retrieval.
> Learning extracts insights asynchronously.
> Personalization applies knowledge in real-time within context constraints.
This results in a 14.6% improvement in personalization score compared to a stateless baseline, with trait incorporation jumping from 45% to 75% on the MAPLE-Personas benchmark.
As agents move toward long-term user relationships, treating personalization as a first-class architectural concern rather than an afterthought will be essential.
Paper: https://t.co/DJRzHA4dWL
Learn to build effective AI agents in our academy: https://t.co/LRnpZN7L4c
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Offshore
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Bourbon Capital
"As AI becomes more pervasive across the enterprise, it expands the attack surface area and new classes of risk that simply did not exist before. In that environment, security cannot set the sidelines. Despite the current sentiment about AI and software, we firmly believe that security is enabling layer that allows innovation to move forward safely and at scale......" Nikesh Arora $PANW CEO
Mr. Market doesn’t care about cybersecurity today, but it will matter in the long term.
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"As AI becomes more pervasive across the enterprise, it expands the attack surface area and new classes of risk that simply did not exist before. In that environment, security cannot set the sidelines. Despite the current sentiment about AI and software, we firmly believe that security is enabling layer that allows innovation to move forward safely and at scale......" Nikesh Arora $PANW CEO
Mr. Market doesn’t care about cybersecurity today, but it will matter in the long term.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Illiquid
APAC, Siemens Energy and ASML hard carrying my port.
https://t.co/TaEmPpEfwY
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APAC, Siemens Energy and ASML hard carrying my port.
https://t.co/TaEmPpEfwY
Where do you think the $700bn of capex is flowing? tweet
Offshore
Video
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Bill Ackman on the biggest loss of his career:
“Biggest loss in my career is a company called Valeant Pharmaceuticals. We made an investment in a business that didn’t meet our core principles… And we lost $4 billion.”
___
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝘐𝘵’𝘴 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘧𝘰𝘤𝘶𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘴, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘈𝘤𝘬𝘮𝘢𝘯’𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦:
“𝙒𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙙𝙚 𝙖𝙣 𝙞𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙞𝙣 𝙖 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙙𝙞𝙙𝙣’𝙩 𝙢𝙚𝙚𝙩 𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙚𝙨.”
𝘛𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘥𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘴 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘪𝘴𝘥𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘣𝘰𝘰𝘬𝘴.
𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘱𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴.
𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘭𝘸𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘬 “𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨,” 𝘢𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘯𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘮𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘶𝘮, 𝘢𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘪𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘣𝘭𝘦. 𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘴𝘶𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘣𝘶𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺.
___
1️⃣ 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐓𝐲𝐩𝐞 𝟏 𝐯𝐬. 𝐓𝐲𝐩𝐞 𝟐 𝐄𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫 𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫𝐬:
• 𝐓𝐲𝐩𝐞 𝟏 𝐄𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫 (False Positive): Believing a bad investment is good → permanent capital impairment
• 𝐓𝐲𝐩𝐞 𝟐 𝐄𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫 (False Negative): Rejecting a great investment → opportunity cost
Nature offers the perfect analogy.
A deer making a Type 1 error (misjudging danger) may not survive.
A cheetah making a Type 2 error (skipping a chase) simply misses a meal.
In investing, Type 1 errors can be fatal.
𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐮𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫𝐬 — 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬.
Discipline is not restrictive. It is protective.
___
2️⃣ 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐲 & 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
Valeant was not just a bad outcome — it was a fragile system.
Ackman highlights something subtle but critical:
“A confidence-sensitive strategy.”
Businesses dependent on:
• Constant acquisitions
• Favorable capital markets
• Equity issuance
• Narrative momentum
carry hidden fragility.
𝘞𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘧𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘣𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘴, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘥𝘦𝘭 𝘪𝘵𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘧 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘣𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬.
Contrast that with businesses whose economics are self-funded and internally compounding. They may suffer volatility, but their survival doesn’t depend on market approval.
___
3️⃣ 𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 & 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐥
Ackman initially held a passive position.
When things deteriorated, he stepped in — but by then, he was reacting, not controlling.
Many investors frequently underestimate governance risk:
• Who is making capital allocation decisions?
• What incentives drive management?
• Can poor decisions be corrected early?
___
𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭
Great investors are rarely defined by avoiding mistakes.
They are defined by:
• Learning from them
• Refining their principles
• Increasing selectivity
This is exactly what Bill Ackman did.
He didn’t just move on from Valeant — he extracted the lesson, refined his framework, and even had his core principles chiseled onto a piece of granite as a permanent reminder not to stray from them again.
What makes this even more compelling is the context.
During that period, Ackman was facing a low point both professionally and personally. As the saying goes, when it rains, it pours.
Many would have folded.
Instead, he did the opposite — demonstrating remarkable resilience and psychological endurance.
Tomorrow, I’ll share how Bill got through it — the tools, systems, and mindset shifts behind his epic comeback.
___
Video: Lex Fridman Podcast (02/[...]
Bill Ackman on the biggest loss of his career:
“Biggest loss in my career is a company called Valeant Pharmaceuticals. We made an investment in a business that didn’t meet our core principles… And we lost $4 billion.”
___
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝘐𝘵’𝘴 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘧𝘰𝘤𝘶𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘴, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘈𝘤𝘬𝘮𝘢𝘯’𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦:
“𝙒𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙙𝙚 𝙖𝙣 𝙞𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙞𝙣 𝙖 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙙𝙞𝙙𝙣’𝙩 𝙢𝙚𝙚𝙩 𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙚𝙨.”
𝘛𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘥𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘴 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘪𝘴𝘥𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘣𝘰𝘰𝘬𝘴.
𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘱𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴.
𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘭𝘸𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘬 “𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨,” 𝘢𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘯𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘮𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘶𝘮, 𝘢𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘪𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘣𝘭𝘦. 𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘴𝘶𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘣𝘶𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺.
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1️⃣ 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐓𝐲𝐩𝐞 𝟏 𝐯𝐬. 𝐓𝐲𝐩𝐞 𝟐 𝐄𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫 𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫𝐬:
• 𝐓𝐲𝐩𝐞 𝟏 𝐄𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫 (False Positive): Believing a bad investment is good → permanent capital impairment
• 𝐓𝐲𝐩𝐞 𝟐 𝐄𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫 (False Negative): Rejecting a great investment → opportunity cost
Nature offers the perfect analogy.
A deer making a Type 1 error (misjudging danger) may not survive.
A cheetah making a Type 2 error (skipping a chase) simply misses a meal.
In investing, Type 1 errors can be fatal.
𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐮𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫𝐬 — 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬.
Discipline is not restrictive. It is protective.
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2️⃣ 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐲 & 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
Valeant was not just a bad outcome — it was a fragile system.
Ackman highlights something subtle but critical:
“A confidence-sensitive strategy.”
Businesses dependent on:
• Constant acquisitions
• Favorable capital markets
• Equity issuance
• Narrative momentum
carry hidden fragility.
𝘞𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘧𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘣𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘴, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘥𝘦𝘭 𝘪𝘵𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘧 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘣𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬.
Contrast that with businesses whose economics are self-funded and internally compounding. They may suffer volatility, but their survival doesn’t depend on market approval.
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3️⃣ 𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 & 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐥
Ackman initially held a passive position.
When things deteriorated, he stepped in — but by then, he was reacting, not controlling.
Many investors frequently underestimate governance risk:
• Who is making capital allocation decisions?
• What incentives drive management?
• Can poor decisions be corrected early?
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𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭
Great investors are rarely defined by avoiding mistakes.
They are defined by:
• Learning from them
• Refining their principles
• Increasing selectivity
This is exactly what Bill Ackman did.
He didn’t just move on from Valeant — he extracted the lesson, refined his framework, and even had his core principles chiseled onto a piece of granite as a permanent reminder not to stray from them again.
What makes this even more compelling is the context.
During that period, Ackman was facing a low point both professionally and personally. As the saying goes, when it rains, it pours.
Many would have folded.
Instead, he did the opposite — demonstrating remarkable resilience and psychological endurance.
Tomorrow, I’ll share how Bill got through it — the tools, systems, and mindset shifts behind his epic comeback.
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Video: Lex Fridman Podcast (02/[...]
Offshore
Video
Moon Dev
Just added 2 more openclaws to my swarm
Mac minis are becoming hard to find https://t.co/xjcVQd9w7U
tweet
Just added 2 more openclaws to my swarm
Mac minis are becoming hard to find https://t.co/xjcVQd9w7U
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Javier Blas
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright tells me he sees Venezuelan production up 30-40% by year-end from current level (that's ~270,000-360,000 b/d extra).
Last month, I wrote this @Opinion column suggesting there're "low hanging oil barrels" in Venezuela ⬇️⬇️
https://t.co/ptdquUaohr
tweet
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright tells me he sees Venezuelan production up 30-40% by year-end from current level (that's ~270,000-360,000 b/d extra).
Last month, I wrote this @Opinion column suggesting there're "low hanging oil barrels" in Venezuela ⬇️⬇️
https://t.co/ptdquUaohr
tweet