Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$APP margin profile is a case study in operating leverage — revenue growth is impressive but the scaling efficiency is extraordinary.
FCF Margin: 72.46% https://t.co/kghfAxbilO
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$APP margin profile is a case study in operating leverage — revenue growth is impressive but the scaling efficiency is extraordinary.
FCF Margin: 72.46% https://t.co/kghfAxbilO
tweet
God of Prompt
Steal my prompt to build a personalized 30-day goal achievement plan through cognitive behavioral techniques.
------------------------------------
RETICULAR ACTIVATING SYSTEM
------------------------------------ <contextYou are building a personalized 30-day goal achievement protocol for one specific user.
Your methodology fuses cognitive behavioral techniques, identity-based habit formation
(James Clear), self-image psychology (Maxwell Maltz), Reticular Activating System
programming, and emotional state management (HeartMath Institute research).
You reject vague affirmation culture. Every output must be a concrete action
the user can execute Monday morning. <rolePerformance architect who reverse-engineers goal achievement through identity
reprogramming and behavioral system design. You spent 15 years studying why people
with identical goals get wildly different results. Your conclusion: the difference
is never strategy. It's the internal operating system running underneath. You fix
the operating system first, then build the execution vehicles on top. <methodologyFollow this sequence exactly. Do not skip steps. Do not merge steps.
STEP 1 — OPERATING SYSTEM AUDIT
Analyze the user's current identity, beliefs, and emotional patterns relative
to their goal. Identify:
a) Their current self-image in this domain (who they believe they ARE, not who
they want to be)
b) Their dominant emotional frequency around this goal (desperation, fear,
neutral, confidence, certainty)
c) Their limiting "no's" — beliefs that make the goal feel impossible or unlikely
d) Their confirmation bias loop — what evidence their brain currently filters
FOR and AGAINST their goal
e) What they've normalized — what level of results feels "just how it is" to them
STEP 2 — IDENTITY BLUEPRINT
Design the target identity the user needs to install BEFORE pursuing tactics:
a) Write 3 "I am" identity statements that describe who they'd BE if the goal
were already achieved (present tense, no "trying" or "becoming" language)
b) Define the decision filter: "What would [target identity] do?" for daily choices
c) Specify the emotional signature of the target identity — the feelings that
would be NORMAL if the goal were already real
d) Identify one belief that must flip from "no" to "yes" first (the keystone belief)
STEP 3 — RAS REPROGRAMMING PROTOCOL
Design a filter reset sequence:
a) The old filter: what their brain currently highlights as "relevant"
(obstacles, scarcity, reasons it won't work)
b) The new filter: what their brain needs to highlight instead
(opportunities, evidence, pathways forward)
c) Morning directive (one sentence they say to program the day's filter)
d) Evening evidence log (what to capture each night to reinforce the new filter)
e) Starvation protocol — how to dismiss old-filter evidence without spiraling
STEP 4 — EMOTIONAL STATE MANAGEMENT
Build a daily frequency maintenance system:
a) Morning state-setting ritual (60-second practice, no fluff — specific
visualization scene + target emotion + physiological shift)
b) Mid-day state check (one question to ask themselves + correction protocol
if they've dropped into fear/desperation/doubt)
c) Pre-sleep installation (one vivid scene implying the goal is achieved,
experienced with all senses — describe the exact scene for this user)
d) Desperation detection: 3 signs they've slipped into "needing" the outcome
vs. operating from internal completeness. Include the reset move for each.
STEP 5 — SPECIFICITY LOCKDOWN
Force radical clarity:
a) Translate their goal from vague to measurable with sensory detail
(numbers, dates, what they see/hear/feel when it's real)
b) Write the "allocation plan" — what they'll DO with the result once achieved
(this shifts the brain from acquisition mode to having mode)
c) Create the "normalization statem[...]
Steal my prompt to build a personalized 30-day goal achievement plan through cognitive behavioral techniques.
------------------------------------
RETICULAR ACTIVATING SYSTEM
------------------------------------ <contextYou are building a personalized 30-day goal achievement protocol for one specific user.
Your methodology fuses cognitive behavioral techniques, identity-based habit formation
(James Clear), self-image psychology (Maxwell Maltz), Reticular Activating System
programming, and emotional state management (HeartMath Institute research).
You reject vague affirmation culture. Every output must be a concrete action
the user can execute Monday morning. <rolePerformance architect who reverse-engineers goal achievement through identity
reprogramming and behavioral system design. You spent 15 years studying why people
with identical goals get wildly different results. Your conclusion: the difference
is never strategy. It's the internal operating system running underneath. You fix
the operating system first, then build the execution vehicles on top. <methodologyFollow this sequence exactly. Do not skip steps. Do not merge steps.
STEP 1 — OPERATING SYSTEM AUDIT
Analyze the user's current identity, beliefs, and emotional patterns relative
to their goal. Identify:
a) Their current self-image in this domain (who they believe they ARE, not who
they want to be)
b) Their dominant emotional frequency around this goal (desperation, fear,
neutral, confidence, certainty)
c) Their limiting "no's" — beliefs that make the goal feel impossible or unlikely
d) Their confirmation bias loop — what evidence their brain currently filters
FOR and AGAINST their goal
e) What they've normalized — what level of results feels "just how it is" to them
STEP 2 — IDENTITY BLUEPRINT
Design the target identity the user needs to install BEFORE pursuing tactics:
a) Write 3 "I am" identity statements that describe who they'd BE if the goal
were already achieved (present tense, no "trying" or "becoming" language)
b) Define the decision filter: "What would [target identity] do?" for daily choices
c) Specify the emotional signature of the target identity — the feelings that
would be NORMAL if the goal were already real
d) Identify one belief that must flip from "no" to "yes" first (the keystone belief)
STEP 3 — RAS REPROGRAMMING PROTOCOL
Design a filter reset sequence:
a) The old filter: what their brain currently highlights as "relevant"
(obstacles, scarcity, reasons it won't work)
b) The new filter: what their brain needs to highlight instead
(opportunities, evidence, pathways forward)
c) Morning directive (one sentence they say to program the day's filter)
d) Evening evidence log (what to capture each night to reinforce the new filter)
e) Starvation protocol — how to dismiss old-filter evidence without spiraling
STEP 4 — EMOTIONAL STATE MANAGEMENT
Build a daily frequency maintenance system:
a) Morning state-setting ritual (60-second practice, no fluff — specific
visualization scene + target emotion + physiological shift)
b) Mid-day state check (one question to ask themselves + correction protocol
if they've dropped into fear/desperation/doubt)
c) Pre-sleep installation (one vivid scene implying the goal is achieved,
experienced with all senses — describe the exact scene for this user)
d) Desperation detection: 3 signs they've slipped into "needing" the outcome
vs. operating from internal completeness. Include the reset move for each.
STEP 5 — SPECIFICITY LOCKDOWN
Force radical clarity:
a) Translate their goal from vague to measurable with sensory detail
(numbers, dates, what they see/hear/feel when it's real)
b) Write the "allocation plan" — what they'll DO with the result once achieved
(this shifts the brain from acquisition mode to having mode)
c) Create the "normalization statem[...]
Offshore
God of Prompt Steal my prompt to build a personalized 30-day goal achievement plan through cognitive behavioral techniques. ------------------------------------ RETICULAR ACTIVATING SYSTEM ------------------------------------ <contextYou are building a personalized…
ent" — reframe the goal as boring and
inevitable, not exciting and uncertain
STEP 6 — VEHICLE DESIGN
Build practical execution pathways:
a) Identify 2-3 vehicles (businesses, skills, platforms, relationships, systems)
that create channels for the goal to materialize through
b) For each vehicle: one specific action this week to start building it
c) Surface area expansion: one move to increase visibility, reach, or luck
(content, networking, outreach, showing up somewhere new)
d) Next step only — what's the single next action in front of them today?
Don't map the whole path. Just step one.
STEP 7 — 30-DAY PROTOCOL
Compile everything into a daily executable routine:
a) Morning block (5 minutes max): identity installation + state-setting +
filter directive
b) Decision protocol: the one question to ask before every choice throughout
the day
c) Evening block (5 minutes max): evidence log + pre-sleep visualization scene
d) Weekly vehicle check: one question to assess if they're building pathways
or just visualizing
e) Course correction triggers: 3 signs they've fallen back into the old loop +
exact reset sequence
STEP 8 — CONVICTION CALIBRATION
Test and strengthen their commitment:
a) The "when not if" reframe — rewrite their goal using certainty language
b) Failure inoculation — what they'll tell themselves when setbacks hit
(specific to their goal, not generic)
c) The detachment test — can they feel complete NOW without seeing external
proof? If not, prescribe the specific internal shift needed. <guidelines- Every recommendation must be a specific action, not a concept.
"Raise your vibration" = banned. "Spend 60 seconds feeling gratitude while
holding your hands on your chest" = acceptable.
- Write the visualization scenes FOR the user based on their goal details.
Don't say "visualize success." Describe the exact scene they should see.
- Identity statements must be visceral and personal, not corporate-motivational.
"I am a disciplined machine" = weak. "I'm the person who shows up at 6 AM
even when it's raining because that's just what I do" = strong.
- Call out any contradictions between what they say they want and what their
current behaviors reveal about their actual self-image.
- The 30-day protocol must fit on one page. If it won't fit, it's too complex
and the user won't do it. Compress ruthlessly.
- Treat the user as capable and intelligent. No hand-holding tone. No "you got
this!" cheerleading. Direct, precise, coach-on-the-field energy.
- When identifying limiting beliefs, use the user's own language patterns from
their input — mirror their words back to make the diagnosis land harder. <avoid- Generic affirmations ("I am worthy of abundance")
- Quantum physics claims or pseudoscientific framing
- Telling the user to "just believe" without giving them the behavioral mechanism
- Multi-page morning routines that take 45+ minutes
- Any practice that requires the user to buy something
- Spiritual bypassing — if the user has a real skill/knowledge gap, name it
as a vehicle they need to build, don't pretend mindset alone will fix it
- Vague timelines ("soon," "in time," "when you're ready") <information_about_me● My goal and where I am now: [WHAT YOU WANT + WHERE YOU CURRENTLY STAND — BE BRUTALLY HONEST]
● What's failed before and why: [PAST ATTEMPTS, WHAT BROKE, WHAT YOU QUIT AND WHY]
● What I have to work with: [SKILLS, ASSETS, TIME AVAILABLE, EXISTING NETWORK OR PLATFORMS] <output_format## OPERATING SYSTEM AUDIT
[Diagnosis of current identity, beliefs, emotional frequency, and confirmation bias loop.
Use the user's own words against them where revealing. 300 words max.]
## IDENTITY BLUEPRINT
[3 identity statements + decision filter + emotional signature + keystone belief flip.
Written in the user's voice, not generic. 200 words max.]
## RAS REPROGRAMMING PROTOCOL
[Old filter → new [...]
inevitable, not exciting and uncertain
STEP 6 — VEHICLE DESIGN
Build practical execution pathways:
a) Identify 2-3 vehicles (businesses, skills, platforms, relationships, systems)
that create channels for the goal to materialize through
b) For each vehicle: one specific action this week to start building it
c) Surface area expansion: one move to increase visibility, reach, or luck
(content, networking, outreach, showing up somewhere new)
d) Next step only — what's the single next action in front of them today?
Don't map the whole path. Just step one.
STEP 7 — 30-DAY PROTOCOL
Compile everything into a daily executable routine:
a) Morning block (5 minutes max): identity installation + state-setting +
filter directive
b) Decision protocol: the one question to ask before every choice throughout
the day
c) Evening block (5 minutes max): evidence log + pre-sleep visualization scene
d) Weekly vehicle check: one question to assess if they're building pathways
or just visualizing
e) Course correction triggers: 3 signs they've fallen back into the old loop +
exact reset sequence
STEP 8 — CONVICTION CALIBRATION
Test and strengthen their commitment:
a) The "when not if" reframe — rewrite their goal using certainty language
b) Failure inoculation — what they'll tell themselves when setbacks hit
(specific to their goal, not generic)
c) The detachment test — can they feel complete NOW without seeing external
proof? If not, prescribe the specific internal shift needed. <guidelines- Every recommendation must be a specific action, not a concept.
"Raise your vibration" = banned. "Spend 60 seconds feeling gratitude while
holding your hands on your chest" = acceptable.
- Write the visualization scenes FOR the user based on their goal details.
Don't say "visualize success." Describe the exact scene they should see.
- Identity statements must be visceral and personal, not corporate-motivational.
"I am a disciplined machine" = weak. "I'm the person who shows up at 6 AM
even when it's raining because that's just what I do" = strong.
- Call out any contradictions between what they say they want and what their
current behaviors reveal about their actual self-image.
- The 30-day protocol must fit on one page. If it won't fit, it's too complex
and the user won't do it. Compress ruthlessly.
- Treat the user as capable and intelligent. No hand-holding tone. No "you got
this!" cheerleading. Direct, precise, coach-on-the-field energy.
- When identifying limiting beliefs, use the user's own language patterns from
their input — mirror their words back to make the diagnosis land harder. <avoid- Generic affirmations ("I am worthy of abundance")
- Quantum physics claims or pseudoscientific framing
- Telling the user to "just believe" without giving them the behavioral mechanism
- Multi-page morning routines that take 45+ minutes
- Any practice that requires the user to buy something
- Spiritual bypassing — if the user has a real skill/knowledge gap, name it
as a vehicle they need to build, don't pretend mindset alone will fix it
- Vague timelines ("soon," "in time," "when you're ready") <information_about_me● My goal and where I am now: [WHAT YOU WANT + WHERE YOU CURRENTLY STAND — BE BRUTALLY HONEST]
● What's failed before and why: [PAST ATTEMPTS, WHAT BROKE, WHAT YOU QUIT AND WHY]
● What I have to work with: [SKILLS, ASSETS, TIME AVAILABLE, EXISTING NETWORK OR PLATFORMS] <output_format## OPERATING SYSTEM AUDIT
[Diagnosis of current identity, beliefs, emotional frequency, and confirmation bias loop.
Use the user's own words against them where revealing. 300 words max.]
## IDENTITY BLUEPRINT
[3 identity statements + decision filter + emotional signature + keystone belief flip.
Written in the user's voice, not generic. 200 words max.]
## RAS REPROGRAMMING PROTOCOL
[Old filter → new [...]
Offshore
ent" — reframe the goal as boring and inevitable, not exciting and uncertain STEP 6 — VEHICLE DESIGN Build practical execution pathways: a) Identify 2-3 vehicles (businesses, skills, platforms, relationships, systems) that create channels for…
filter + morning directive + evening evidence log + starvation
protocol. 200 words max.]
## EMOTIONAL STATE MANAGEMENT
[Morning ritual + mid-day check + pre-sleep scene (written out in full sensory detail
for this specific user) + desperation detection with resets. 300 words max.]
## SPECIFICITY LOCKDOWN
[Goal translated to measurable + allocation plan + normalization statement.
150 words max.]
## VEHICLE DESIGN
[2-3 vehicles + this week's action for each + surface area move + today's next step.
200 words max.]
## YOUR 30-DAY PROTOCOL (ONE PAGE)
[Complete daily routine: morning block, decision question, evening block, weekly check,
course correction triggers. Must be scannable in under 60 seconds. 250 words max.]
## CONVICTION CALIBRATION
["When not if" reframe + failure inoculation script + detachment test result.
150 words max.]
tweet
protocol. 200 words max.]
## EMOTIONAL STATE MANAGEMENT
[Morning ritual + mid-day check + pre-sleep scene (written out in full sensory detail
for this specific user) + desperation detection with resets. 300 words max.]
## SPECIFICITY LOCKDOWN
[Goal translated to measurable + allocation plan + normalization statement.
150 words max.]
## VEHICLE DESIGN
[2-3 vehicles + this week's action for each + surface area move + today's next step.
200 words max.]
## YOUR 30-DAY PROTOCOL (ONE PAGE)
[Complete daily routine: morning block, decision question, evening block, weekly check,
course correction triggers. Must be scannable in under 60 seconds. 250 words max.]
## CONVICTION CALIBRATION
["When not if" reframe + failure inoculation script + detachment test result.
150 words max.]
https://t.co/2e7wVoDaGb tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Termsheetinator (@termsheetinator) on X
this article found you for a reason
Offshore
Photo
Moon Dev
funny how quick we went from "hey check out my ai agents"
to keeping things secret because these agents can work 24/7 now
a lot of people are going to get left behind.
their companies are cooked if they dont have openclaw running 24/7
and most companies who try to set it up will cause a security breach or atleast some embarrassment
there are a couple spots available if you want me to setup & host your openclaw so it can work for you 24/7
you just need your idea
i will handle the setup, apis, and hosting + give you full access to the computer so you can do anything on it
https://t.co/bqvof621Rn
tweet
funny how quick we went from "hey check out my ai agents"
to keeping things secret because these agents can work 24/7 now
a lot of people are going to get left behind.
their companies are cooked if they dont have openclaw running 24/7
and most companies who try to set it up will cause a security breach or atleast some embarrassment
there are a couple spots available if you want me to setup & host your openclaw so it can work for you 24/7
you just need your idea
i will handle the setup, apis, and hosting + give you full access to the computer so you can do anything on it
https://t.co/bqvof621Rn
tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang: “I wish upon you plenty of pain and suffering”
There’s a phrase that says you should choose your career based on your passion. And usually people connect passion with happiness… Nothing there is wrong, but there’s something missing. And the reason for that is because when you want to build something great, it’s not easy to do. And when you’re doing something that’s not easy to do, you’re not always enjoying it.”
Jensen continues:
“I don’t love every day of my job… And every day I’m not happy… But I love the company every single second. And so I think what people misunderstand is [they think] the best jobs are the ones that bring you happiness all the time. I don’t think that’s right. You have to suffer. You have to struggle. You have to endeavor. You have to do those hard things and work through it in order to really appreciate what you’ve done. There’s no such thing that is great that was easy to do.”
He tells the audience:
“I wish upon you greatness, which by my way of saying it, I wish upon you plenty of pain and suffering.”
Video source: @stripe (2024)
tweet
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang: “I wish upon you plenty of pain and suffering”
There’s a phrase that says you should choose your career based on your passion. And usually people connect passion with happiness… Nothing there is wrong, but there’s something missing. And the reason for that is because when you want to build something great, it’s not easy to do. And when you’re doing something that’s not easy to do, you’re not always enjoying it.”
Jensen continues:
“I don’t love every day of my job… And every day I’m not happy… But I love the company every single second. And so I think what people misunderstand is [they think] the best jobs are the ones that bring you happiness all the time. I don’t think that’s right. You have to suffer. You have to struggle. You have to endeavor. You have to do those hard things and work through it in order to really appreciate what you’ve done. There’s no such thing that is great that was easy to do.”
He tells the audience:
“I wish upon you greatness, which by my way of saying it, I wish upon you plenty of pain and suffering.”
Video source: @stripe (2024)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
God of Prompt
RT @rryssf_: a company just admitted on r/analytics that their ai agent has been inventing metrics for 3 months straight
their VP of sales made territory decisions on fabricated data. their CFO showed the board a deck full of numbers that never existed.
nobody noticed because the outputs looked right. confident summaries. clean percentages. decisive recommendations.
they only caught it by accident when someone asked to double-check one number.
this is the problem nobody in the ai agent space wants to talk about 👇
tweet
RT @rryssf_: a company just admitted on r/analytics that their ai agent has been inventing metrics for 3 months straight
their VP of sales made territory decisions on fabricated data. their CFO showed the board a deck full of numbers that never existed.
nobody noticed because the outputs looked right. confident summaries. clean percentages. decisive recommendations.
they only caught it by accident when someone asked to double-check one number.
this is the problem nobody in the ai agent space wants to talk about 👇
tweet
Offshore
Photo
God of Prompt
RT @alex_prompter: Siri promised you a personal AI assistant in 2011.
14 years later, it still can't clear your inbox.
OpenClaw actually does it. From WhatsApp. While you sleep.
That's why I wrote the complete OpenClaw guide covering:
→ Full architecture breakdown
→ 30-minute setup walkthrough
→ Security hardening (this is critical)
→ Cost-saving tricks ($14/month vs $400/month)
→ A memory upgrade prompt that makes it 10x smarter
One user saved $4,200 negotiating a car through it.
Comment "Claw" and I'll DM you the full guide.
(Must be following me to receive it)
tweet
RT @alex_prompter: Siri promised you a personal AI assistant in 2011.
14 years later, it still can't clear your inbox.
OpenClaw actually does it. From WhatsApp. While you sleep.
That's why I wrote the complete OpenClaw guide covering:
→ Full architecture breakdown
→ 30-minute setup walkthrough
→ Security hardening (this is critical)
→ Cost-saving tricks ($14/month vs $400/month)
→ A memory upgrade prompt that makes it 10x smarter
One user saved $4,200 negotiating a car through it.
Comment "Claw" and I'll DM you the full guide.
(Must be following me to receive it)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: Claude is insane for product management.
I reverse-engineered how top PMs at Google, Meta, and Anthropic use it.
The difference is night and day.
Here are 10 prompts they don't want you to know (but I'm sharing anyway): https://t.co/7RApvBHQ66
tweet
RT @godofprompt: Claude is insane for product management.
I reverse-engineered how top PMs at Google, Meta, and Anthropic use it.
The difference is night and day.
Here are 10 prompts they don't want you to know (but I'm sharing anyway): https://t.co/7RApvBHQ66
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Pristine Capital
RT @realpristinecap: $IBIT #Bitcoin ETF on the verge of roundtripping all gains since inception https://t.co/uiEUwfBhkD
tweet
RT @realpristinecap: $IBIT #Bitcoin ETF on the verge of roundtripping all gains since inception https://t.co/uiEUwfBhkD
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Javier Blas
RT @JKempEnergy: CHINA’s oil stocks and readiness for war: https://t.co/LnBS92xTBk https://t.co/3J3ZJclmZP
tweet
RT @JKempEnergy: CHINA’s oil stocks and readiness for war: https://t.co/LnBS92xTBk https://t.co/3J3ZJclmZP
tweet
Offshore
Video
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Bill Ackman on $GOOG $GOOGL:
“Our view on Google, one way to think about it when a business becomes a verb, that's usually pretty good sign about the moat around the business... You know the Google advertising search, YouTube franchise is one of the most dominant franchises in the world... Now AI of course is a risk if all of a sudden people start searching or asking questions of Chat GPT...
Our view based on work we had done and talked to industry experts is that Google if anything had a, by virtue of the investment they've made, the time, the energy that people put into it, 𝙬𝙚 𝙛𝙚𝙡𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙞𝙧 𝘼𝙄 𝙘𝙖𝙥𝙖𝙗𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙞𝙛 𝙖𝙣𝙮𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙥𝙤𝙩𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙈𝙞𝙘𝙧𝙤𝙨𝙤𝙛𝙩 𝘾𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙂𝙋𝙏 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙝𝙖𝙙 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙.”
___
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: Markets constantly swing between fear and enthusiasm, often driven by stories rather than facts. The real advantage comes from maintaining independent thought — focusing on underlying business economics instead of prevailing sentiment. Contrarian investing is about staying grounded in the facts when narratives become loud, emotional, and disconnected from fundamentals.
___
1️⃣ 𝐒𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬
At the time:
• AI fear dominated headlines
• Bard’s early demo shaped perception
• The market concluded Google was “behind”
But Ackman did something most investors struggle to do:
He 𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 & 𝙛𝙤𝙘𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙤𝙣 𝙛𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙨:
• Dominant Search economics
• YouTube — a global advertising powerhouse
• Rapidly scaling Cloud business
• Extraordinary profitability
• Massive data advantages
• Deep engineering talent
• Enormous financial resources
• Potential for margin expansion
• 7% earnings yield with a large margin of safety
• Optionality of the businesses within
• Clean balance sheet and ton of cash
Narratives create volatility.
Fundamentals create value.
___
2️⃣ 𝐔𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 “𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤” 𝐀𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬
Ackman openly acknowledges AI as a risk.
But notice the nuance:
•Risk ≠ Headlines
•Risk ≠ Fear
•Risk ≠ Price declines
•Risk = Probability of long-term impairment
A critical distinction.
Most investors confuse uncertainty with danger.
𝘠𝘦𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘧𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 “𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘺” 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘯𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘬.
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3️⃣ 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲
“The market had overreacted.”
This sentence captures the essence of investing. Markets constantly swing between:
Overconfidence ↔ Panic
Euphoria ↔ Fear
When perception collapses faster than fundamentals… Valuation gaps emerge.
𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬𝘴 𝘰𝘣𝘷𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘳𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘰𝘣𝘷𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦. 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘴𝘺𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘣𝘺 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯.
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4️⃣ 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐯𝐬 𝐅𝐞𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬
Perhaps the most important takeaway:
Successful 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 is rarely 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 superior intelligence.
It is about 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫 𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞.
Facts are stable.
Sentiment is unstable. Yet sentiment is louder.
𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙤 𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙤 𝙣𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙩 𝙫𝙤𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮. 𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙤 𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙤 𝙛𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙩 𝙤𝙥𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙪𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙮.
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Final Thought:
The world often feels most certain at extremes. Yet, 𝘼𝙘𝙠𝙢𝙖𝙣’𝙨 𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚 𝙬𝙖𝙨 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝘼𝙄. 𝙄𝙩 𝙬𝙖𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙛𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙤 𝙡𝙚𝙩 𝙚𝙭𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙚 𝙛𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮. 𝙎𝙩𝙤𝙘𝙠 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝙢𝙤𝙫𝙚 𝙤𝙣 𝙚𝙢𝙤𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢. 𝘽𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙦𝙪𝙖𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙖𝙞𝙡𝙨 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧 �[...]
Bill Ackman on $GOOG $GOOGL:
“Our view on Google, one way to think about it when a business becomes a verb, that's usually pretty good sign about the moat around the business... You know the Google advertising search, YouTube franchise is one of the most dominant franchises in the world... Now AI of course is a risk if all of a sudden people start searching or asking questions of Chat GPT...
Our view based on work we had done and talked to industry experts is that Google if anything had a, by virtue of the investment they've made, the time, the energy that people put into it, 𝙬𝙚 𝙛𝙚𝙡𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙞𝙧 𝘼𝙄 𝙘𝙖𝙥𝙖𝙗𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙞𝙛 𝙖𝙣𝙮𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙥𝙤𝙩𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙈𝙞𝙘𝙧𝙤𝙨𝙤𝙛𝙩 𝘾𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙂𝙋𝙏 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙝𝙖𝙙 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙.”
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𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: Markets constantly swing between fear and enthusiasm, often driven by stories rather than facts. The real advantage comes from maintaining independent thought — focusing on underlying business economics instead of prevailing sentiment. Contrarian investing is about staying grounded in the facts when narratives become loud, emotional, and disconnected from fundamentals.
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1️⃣ 𝐒𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬
At the time:
• AI fear dominated headlines
• Bard’s early demo shaped perception
• The market concluded Google was “behind”
But Ackman did something most investors struggle to do:
He 𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 & 𝙛𝙤𝙘𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙤𝙣 𝙛𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙨:
• Dominant Search economics
• YouTube — a global advertising powerhouse
• Rapidly scaling Cloud business
• Extraordinary profitability
• Massive data advantages
• Deep engineering talent
• Enormous financial resources
• Potential for margin expansion
• 7% earnings yield with a large margin of safety
• Optionality of the businesses within
• Clean balance sheet and ton of cash
Narratives create volatility.
Fundamentals create value.
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2️⃣ 𝐔𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 “𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤” 𝐀𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬
Ackman openly acknowledges AI as a risk.
But notice the nuance:
•Risk ≠ Headlines
•Risk ≠ Fear
•Risk ≠ Price declines
•Risk = Probability of long-term impairment
A critical distinction.
Most investors confuse uncertainty with danger.
𝘠𝘦𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘧𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 “𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘺” 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘯𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘬.
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3️⃣ 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲
“The market had overreacted.”
This sentence captures the essence of investing. Markets constantly swing between:
Overconfidence ↔ Panic
Euphoria ↔ Fear
When perception collapses faster than fundamentals… Valuation gaps emerge.
𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬𝘴 𝘰𝘣𝘷𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘳𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘰𝘣𝘷𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦. 𝘉𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘴𝘺𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘣𝘺 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯.
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4️⃣ 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐯𝐬 𝐅𝐞𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬
Perhaps the most important takeaway:
Successful 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 is rarely 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 superior intelligence.
It is about 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫 𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞.
Facts are stable.
Sentiment is unstable. Yet sentiment is louder.
𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙤 𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙤 𝙣𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙩 𝙫𝙤𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮. 𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙤 𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙤 𝙛𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙩 𝙤𝙥𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙪𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙮.
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Final Thought:
The world often feels most certain at extremes. Yet, 𝘼𝙘𝙠𝙢𝙖𝙣’𝙨 𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚 𝙬𝙖𝙨 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝘼𝙄. 𝙄𝙩 𝙬𝙖𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙛𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙤 𝙡𝙚𝙩 𝙚𝙭𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙚 𝙛𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮. 𝙎𝙩𝙤𝙘𝙠 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝙢𝙤𝙫𝙚 𝙤𝙣 𝙚𝙢𝙤𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢. 𝘽𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙦𝙪𝙖𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙖𝙞𝙡𝙨 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧 �[...]