Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Another timeless investing lesson from Chris Hohn:

“The 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐨𝐮𝐭, if you’ve got a great company, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬. Take a company we own — Moody’s… What do you think the average revenue growth over 100 years has been?

10%.

That’s a very unusual number over a very long time period. And so 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞, 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐲𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟… The intrinsic value compounding matters more than the stock price. If you have a great company, it will grow intrinsic value.

Here’s the thing about multiples.

𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝. 𝐁𝐮𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐫 𝐮𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲’𝐫𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠.

Which goes back to Warren Buffett’s definition of risk:

Not knowing what you’re doing.

𝐈𝐟 𝐚 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐜 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐭 𝐚 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞, 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐨𝐧.

𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐫𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐢𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐜 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞.”
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𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝘛𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘵’𝘴 𝘩𝘪𝘥𝘥𝘦𝘯. 𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘵’𝘴 𝘱𝘴𝘺𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘥𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘥. 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘪𝘯 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴, 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴. 𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘴. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘤𝘩 𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨: 𝘚𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘥𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘵𝘴.
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𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝𝐬:

Multiples dominate outcomes
Sentiment dominates perception
Volatility dominates emotion

𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝𝐬:

Earnings dominate returns
Cash flows dominate valuation
Intrinsic value dominates everything
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Multiples matter, but it’s secondary.

Growth + durability + time matter more.

And perhaps the most overlooked psychological truth:

𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘴𝘢𝘧𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴.

Because volatility ≠ risk.

Uncertainty ≠ risk.

Not understanding what you own = risk.

𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙨𝙣’𝙩 𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨. 𝙄𝙩’𝙨 𝙙𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙡𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙯𝙤𝙣 𝙧𝙚𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙧𝙚𝙙 𝙩𝙤 𝙡𝙚𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙢 𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠.
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$MCO $SPGI

Video: In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (02/13/2026)
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Startup Archive
Spotify founder Daniel Ek explains why he doesn’t worry about competition from Google and Apple

In this interview from 2015, Daniel Ek is asked how Spotify will compete against tech giants like Google and Apple who recently entered the music space. He responds:

“Apple and Google do this and 10,000 other things. We’re specialized. We don’t do anything other than our own service. This is all I do every day. We think with that focus and the thousands - if not millions of hours - that we put into creating [our] experience, we will win.”

He continues:

“The way you win in this fast-moving world… is by being super focused on solving one problem better than anyone else and by moving faster than everyone else in solving that problem. It’s really simple if you think about it like that… Sooner or later you’re going to get defocused if you do a thousand things. You can’t do all 1,000 things super well.”

In 2015 Spotify was valued at $8 billion. Today it’s valued at almost $100 billion

Video source: @twistartups @jason (2015)
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Illiquid
$dis is entering AI age of abundance with valuable in-person experiences (cruises, theme parks), valuable IP, and declining production costs (video models) at 15 p/e.
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The Transcript
$GOOG Google DeepMind CEO: Compute scarcity forced consolidation of Google Brain and DeepMind into one

"It was getting complicated having two groups, especially given the amount of compute needed in this scaling era… even someone like Google didn't have enough compute to have two frontier projects under one house, so we needed to combine all of our resources together.”
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Tomorrow https://t.co/nvxubflf0P
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Bourbon Capital
Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade (Part 2)

1. $SOFI - SoFi Technologies

SoFi has evolved from a single-product lender into a diversified digital financial ecosystem with bank-level economics, software-like margins, and expanding fintech infrastructure capabilities.

The company operates as a modern, mobile-first financial platform targeting younger consumers across personal banking, lending, investing, and crypto.

Product adoption continues to accelerate, with 1.6 million new products added in Q4, bringing the total to over 20 million products, up 37% YoY.

Member growth remains a key driver of long-term expansion. In Q4, SoFi added a record 1 million new members, bringing total membership to 13.7 million, up 35% YoY. This marked the first quarter in the company’s history with more than one million net additions.

SoFi has reached an important inflection point. The company has delivered positive net income since 2024, while Adjusted EBITDA reached $318 million in Q4 (+60% YoY), representing a 31% margin, exceeding management’s long-term 30% target. Full-year EBITDA reached $1.1 billion (+58% YoY) at a 29% margin, reinforcing SoFi’s transition from growth-at-all-costs to durable profitability.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
From Nicholas Smith @ CLSA. Much ado about nothing? https://t.co/l6qsU9xx30
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Clark Square Capital
RT @TheAppInvestor: This has been a good 5 days, thanks @ClarkSquareCap for the idea! https://t.co/XvEDWIGApA
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @InvestInJapan: JPX launched the JPX Start-Up Acceleration 100 Index focused on "high growth start-ups" that trade on TSE.

Although to be honest, not sure how useful this is..
Current constituents below with some familiar names.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @paulg: Prediction: In the AI age, taste will become even more important. When anyone can make anything, the big differentiator is what you choose to make.

https://t.co/3GQUlfH58t
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$APP CAGR Potential based on 2028 EPS estimates & different multiples:

Dec 2026: $15.68 (+67% YoY)
Dec 2027: $19.93 (+27% YoY)
Dec 2028: $25.80 (+29%)

CAGR assuming 2028 EPS Est:

26x → 20.6%
25x → 19.0%
24x → 17.3%
23x → 15.6%
22x → 13.8%
21x → 12.0%
20x → 10.1% https://t.co/TPT2n7QBnh
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