Jukan
Nomura SK Hynix Comment: SK Hynix 2026/27F Operating Profit Forecast at $130.8B / $184.8B
"We estimate that commodity memory price increases in 1Q26 significantly exceeded our initial expectations. We estimate commodity DRAM/NAND prices rose +90%/+60% QoQ in 1Q, substantially surpassing our previous forecasts of DRAM +56% and NAND +40% QoQ. Reflecting this, we raise our 1Q26F operating profit (OP) estimate for Hynix from KRW 29T to KRW 36T. We also raise our full-year 2026F commodity DRAM/NAND price growth forecasts from +126%/+115% YoY to +176%/+146% YoY. Accordingly, we revise up our 2026/27F operating profit (OP) estimates to KRW 189T / KRW 267T. We expect Hynix to achieve DRAM/NAND operating profit margins (OPM) of 76%/57% in 2026F. Factoring in higher quarterly performance bonus costs, we estimate 2026F DRAM/NAND cost per bit will increase +26%/+18% YoY, respectively."
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Nomura SK Hynix Comment: SK Hynix 2026/27F Operating Profit Forecast at $130.8B / $184.8B
"We estimate that commodity memory price increases in 1Q26 significantly exceeded our initial expectations. We estimate commodity DRAM/NAND prices rose +90%/+60% QoQ in 1Q, substantially surpassing our previous forecasts of DRAM +56% and NAND +40% QoQ. Reflecting this, we raise our 1Q26F operating profit (OP) estimate for Hynix from KRW 29T to KRW 36T. We also raise our full-year 2026F commodity DRAM/NAND price growth forecasts from +126%/+115% YoY to +176%/+146% YoY. Accordingly, we revise up our 2026/27F operating profit (OP) estimates to KRW 189T / KRW 267T. We expect Hynix to achieve DRAM/NAND operating profit margins (OPM) of 76%/57% in 2026F. Factoring in higher quarterly performance bonus costs, we estimate 2026F DRAM/NAND cost per bit will increase +26%/+18% YoY, respectively."
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @AzizSapphire: China’s 🇨🇳 industrial clusters
🇨🇳 🇨🇳 🇨🇳 https://t.co/A10bZ0QOrM
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RT @AzizSapphire: China’s 🇨🇳 industrial clusters
🇨🇳 🇨🇳 🇨🇳 https://t.co/A10bZ0QOrM
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Jukan
Nomura on Samsung Electronics: Raised 2026/27 operating profit (OP) forecasts to $168.2bn / $222.9bn
"We estimate that the rise in commodity memory prices significantly outpaced our expectation in 1Q26. We estimate that commodity DRAM/NAND prices rose by 90%/60% in 1Q26, which strongly beat our previous forecasts (DRAM +56%/NAND +40% q-q). We believe Samsung Electronics’ (SEC) HBM4 has better performance but higher production costs vs. competitors’, as the company fabricates core dies through 1C node and adopts base dies from 4nm-node foundry. While some of the customers require speed faster than 11.7Gbps, supplies from HBM suppliers are likely to be limited; thus, we see high potential for pricing premium of 30-40%. (Since low-speed HBM4 is also in tight supply, we do not think it can be viewed as a discount factor for memory companies.) Consequently, we anticipate SEC to benefit from high-speed HBM4 market and gain market share in HBM4. We raise our HBM ASP forecast for SEC, and raise 2026F HBM shipment growth from +112% y-y to +144% y-y. Reflecting these factors, we expect SEC’s 1Q26F memory OP to be at KRW44tn (+153% q-q), which is substantially above our previous forecast of KRW33tn. Although we anticipate commodity memory price growth to decelerate from 2Q26F, we think HBM ASP should rise q-q, based on rising mix of HBM4. We expect SEC to record 2026/27F OP of KRW243tn/322tn (+457%/+33% y-y; Fig. 6), and 2026/27F ROE of 42%/42%, which is higher than our previous estimates of 34%/35%."
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Nomura on Samsung Electronics: Raised 2026/27 operating profit (OP) forecasts to $168.2bn / $222.9bn
"We estimate that the rise in commodity memory prices significantly outpaced our expectation in 1Q26. We estimate that commodity DRAM/NAND prices rose by 90%/60% in 1Q26, which strongly beat our previous forecasts (DRAM +56%/NAND +40% q-q). We believe Samsung Electronics’ (SEC) HBM4 has better performance but higher production costs vs. competitors’, as the company fabricates core dies through 1C node and adopts base dies from 4nm-node foundry. While some of the customers require speed faster than 11.7Gbps, supplies from HBM suppliers are likely to be limited; thus, we see high potential for pricing premium of 30-40%. (Since low-speed HBM4 is also in tight supply, we do not think it can be viewed as a discount factor for memory companies.) Consequently, we anticipate SEC to benefit from high-speed HBM4 market and gain market share in HBM4. We raise our HBM ASP forecast for SEC, and raise 2026F HBM shipment growth from +112% y-y to +144% y-y. Reflecting these factors, we expect SEC’s 1Q26F memory OP to be at KRW44tn (+153% q-q), which is substantially above our previous forecast of KRW33tn. Although we anticipate commodity memory price growth to decelerate from 2Q26F, we think HBM ASP should rise q-q, based on rising mix of HBM4. We expect SEC to record 2026/27F OP of KRW243tn/322tn (+457%/+33% y-y; Fig. 6), and 2026/27F ROE of 42%/42%, which is higher than our previous estimates of 34%/35%."
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God of Prompt
How to use LLMs for competitive intelligence (scraping, analysis, reporting): https://t.co/xlGOSpRQPy
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How to use LLMs for competitive intelligence (scraping, analysis, reporting): https://t.co/xlGOSpRQPy
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: OpenClaw hit 145K GitHub stars and became the fastest-growing open-source AI project in history.
But 90% of people installing it have no idea how to set it up safely.
That's why I built the OpenClaw Starter Guide. It covers:
→ Full architecture breakdown (Gateway, Agent, Skills, Memory)
→ 30-minute setup walkthrough for any hardware
→ Security hardening so you don't end up on Shodan
→ Memory upgrade prompt that makes your agent actually remember you
If you want a personal AI assistant that actually does things, not another chatbot, this is the guide.
Comment "Claw" and I'll DM it to you.
(Must be following me to receive it)
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RT @godofprompt: OpenClaw hit 145K GitHub stars and became the fastest-growing open-source AI project in history.
But 90% of people installing it have no idea how to set it up safely.
That's why I built the OpenClaw Starter Guide. It covers:
→ Full architecture breakdown (Gateway, Agent, Skills, Memory)
→ 30-minute setup walkthrough for any hardware
→ Security hardening so you don't end up on Shodan
→ Memory upgrade prompt that makes your agent actually remember you
If you want a personal AI assistant that actually does things, not another chatbot, this is the guide.
Comment "Claw" and I'll DM it to you.
(Must be following me to receive it)
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @KerrisdaleCap: $ACMR has 4x'd since our writeup a year ago. Only 6x more to go to fulfill our report title "Fabrication of a 10-bagger". Shoutout to @TheBenSchmark from whom we got the idea and @Citrini7 for adding the rocket fuel. Teamwork makes the dream work
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RT @KerrisdaleCap: $ACMR has 4x'd since our writeup a year ago. Only 6x more to go to fulfill our report title "Fabrication of a 10-bagger". Shoutout to @TheBenSchmark from whom we got the idea and @Citrini7 for adding the rocket fuel. Teamwork makes the dream work
We're long $ACMR, our largest position. Report at https://t.co/z79uQd9L89 & we explain why $ACMR could be 10-bagger. The leading wafer-cleaning toolmaker in the fast-growing Chinese semicap sector, $ACMR is a Trump trade & a massive beneficiary of the US-China chip war 1/8 tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Kerrisdale Capital (@KerrisdaleCap) on X
We're long $ACMR, our largest position. Report at https://t.co/z79uQd9L89 & we explain why $ACMR could be 10-bagger. The leading wafer-cleaning toolmaker in the fast-growing Chinese semicap sector, $ACMR is a Trump trade & a massive beneficiary of the US…
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Barry Callebaut, Daikin and Olympus pitched here
https://t.co/f3jeZyJdRD
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Barry Callebaut, Daikin and Olympus pitched here
https://t.co/f3jeZyJdRD
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Javier Blas
According to the @FT, the Trump administration now has realized its tariffs are increasing the price of everyday items (read: beer and soda cans) and it's planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminium goods.
Link: https://t.co/YZh67QCaa4
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According to the @FT, the Trump administration now has realized its tariffs are increasing the price of everyday items (read: beer and soda cans) and it's planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminium goods.
Link: https://t.co/YZh67QCaa4
CHART OF THE DAY: Due to the impact of Trump's tariffs, the all-in cost of aluminum in America has surged to a record high well above $5,000 per metric ton (LME price + US Midwest premium).
The impact would be soon felt on anything made with aluminum -- including beer cans. https://t.co/hR2zsA0Khq tweet
Javier Blas
RT @ChristopherJM: The next round of trilateral peace talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine will be held in Geneva on February 17-18, says Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. He says the Russian delegation will be headed by Vladimir Medinsky, who annoyed the Ukrainians in Istanbul talks last spring by using his time to deliver a long-winded revisionist history lesson. President Zelenskyy just told reporters at a briefing last Friday that the Russian delegations in Abu Dhabi talks were more serious and productive, specifically because they weren't doing what Medinsky has notorious done when he's been involved. His inclusion in Geneva isn't a positive sign.
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RT @ChristopherJM: The next round of trilateral peace talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine will be held in Geneva on February 17-18, says Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. He says the Russian delegation will be headed by Vladimir Medinsky, who annoyed the Ukrainians in Istanbul talks last spring by using his time to deliver a long-winded revisionist history lesson. President Zelenskyy just told reporters at a briefing last Friday that the Russian delegations in Abu Dhabi talks were more serious and productive, specifically because they weren't doing what Medinsky has notorious done when he's been involved. His inclusion in Geneva isn't a positive sign.
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NecoKronos
Why split your attention across 10 different charts to get the full picture?
From delta and liquidations to OB imbalances and CVD, this Bar Statistics indicator packs everything you need into a perfectly clean layout.
It gives you the complete narrative behind every single candle on any timeframe.
#BTC
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Why split your attention across 10 different charts to get the full picture?
From delta and liquidations to OB imbalances and CVD, this Bar Statistics indicator packs everything you need into a perfectly clean layout.
It gives you the complete narrative behind every single candle on any timeframe.
#BTC
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Moon Dev
I Spent $100K on Developers Before Learning This: Building a 24/7 Polymarket Bot With Claude
most people think an ai bot trading polymarket 24/7 while they sleep is a dream until they see the actual p and l data that proves they are just burning money on fees. you see the flashy titles about automated wealth but the truth is usually found in a messy csv file that most traders are too scared to look at because it reveals their edge is actually non existent. i spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on developers in the past because i thought i was not smart enough to code and that mistake cost me more than just the cash. it cost me the ability to iterate fast enough to find a winning system which is the only way you actually survive in these markets.
building a bot that places trades is the easy part and anyone can do that with a bit of help from claude or gpt. the real challenge is building the tools that tell you when to stop trading a specific strategy before it liquidates your entire account. i have been running this stink bid bot on polymarket lately and while it feels like it is working the data shows i am up exactly eight cents after a full day of activity. that might sound like a joke but being break even in a new market is actually a massive win when you consider what most manual traders are paying in hidden costs. i will show you exactly why manual trading is basically a donation to the exchange and how a simple python filter can expose your biggest losers.
the core of my system right now is a p and l tracker that i built to slice and dice my trading history based on specific keywords. i realized that just looking at a total balance change is useless because it hides the specific behaviors that are draining your wallet. for example i can filter my history for any market that includes the word bitcoin or any market that asks if a price will resolve above a certain level. by doing this i found out that my trades on market cap predictions were actually bleeding money while my other positions were keeping me afloat.
this is where the loop starts to close on why most people fail because they treat trading like a single game instead of a series of mini games. if you do not have a way to isolate your performance in sports vs crypto vs political markets you are just gambling in the dark. i found that i was down over eight dollars on just three trades involving market cap keywords which told me to immediately strip that logic out of my automated systems. most traders would have just seen a slight dip in their total balance and assumed the whole bot was broken instead of just one specific niche.
there is a massive secret about fees that nobody on wall street wants you to understand because their entire business model depends on your ignorance. when you trade by hand you are often paying three times more in fees than you would if you just automated your entries and exits through the api. i was looking at my data and realized i had fifty two thousand in volume versus seventeen thousand in a different category and the fee discrepancy was staggering. if you are not careful you are essentially walking into the apple store and offering to pay three thousand dollars for a one thousand dollar phone just because you like doing things manually.
one of my colleagues recently pointed out that using specific routes like astradex can make you eight times more profitable just by optimizing the execution layer. imagine doing the exact same trades with the exact same strategy but making eight times more money simply because you changed how the orders are sent to the blockchain. this is why i believe code is the great equalizer because it allows a solo trader sitting at home to have the same execution efficiency as a massive hedge fund. through losing money with liquidations and over trading i learned that the only way to win is to remove the human element as much as possible.
the p and l calculator i built uses python to download the portfolio csv and[...]
I Spent $100K on Developers Before Learning This: Building a 24/7 Polymarket Bot With Claude
most people think an ai bot trading polymarket 24/7 while they sleep is a dream until they see the actual p and l data that proves they are just burning money on fees. you see the flashy titles about automated wealth but the truth is usually found in a messy csv file that most traders are too scared to look at because it reveals their edge is actually non existent. i spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on developers in the past because i thought i was not smart enough to code and that mistake cost me more than just the cash. it cost me the ability to iterate fast enough to find a winning system which is the only way you actually survive in these markets.
building a bot that places trades is the easy part and anyone can do that with a bit of help from claude or gpt. the real challenge is building the tools that tell you when to stop trading a specific strategy before it liquidates your entire account. i have been running this stink bid bot on polymarket lately and while it feels like it is working the data shows i am up exactly eight cents after a full day of activity. that might sound like a joke but being break even in a new market is actually a massive win when you consider what most manual traders are paying in hidden costs. i will show you exactly why manual trading is basically a donation to the exchange and how a simple python filter can expose your biggest losers.
the core of my system right now is a p and l tracker that i built to slice and dice my trading history based on specific keywords. i realized that just looking at a total balance change is useless because it hides the specific behaviors that are draining your wallet. for example i can filter my history for any market that includes the word bitcoin or any market that asks if a price will resolve above a certain level. by doing this i found out that my trades on market cap predictions were actually bleeding money while my other positions were keeping me afloat.
this is where the loop starts to close on why most people fail because they treat trading like a single game instead of a series of mini games. if you do not have a way to isolate your performance in sports vs crypto vs political markets you are just gambling in the dark. i found that i was down over eight dollars on just three trades involving market cap keywords which told me to immediately strip that logic out of my automated systems. most traders would have just seen a slight dip in their total balance and assumed the whole bot was broken instead of just one specific niche.
there is a massive secret about fees that nobody on wall street wants you to understand because their entire business model depends on your ignorance. when you trade by hand you are often paying three times more in fees than you would if you just automated your entries and exits through the api. i was looking at my data and realized i had fifty two thousand in volume versus seventeen thousand in a different category and the fee discrepancy was staggering. if you are not careful you are essentially walking into the apple store and offering to pay three thousand dollars for a one thousand dollar phone just because you like doing things manually.
one of my colleagues recently pointed out that using specific routes like astradex can make you eight times more profitable just by optimizing the execution layer. imagine doing the exact same trades with the exact same strategy but making eight times more money simply because you changed how the orders are sent to the blockchain. this is why i believe code is the great equalizer because it allows a solo trader sitting at home to have the same execution efficiency as a massive hedge fund. through losing money with liquidations and over trading i learned that the only way to win is to remove the human element as much as possible.
the p and l calculator i built uses python to download the portfolio csv and[...]