Offshore
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Startup Archive
Max Levchin on when to fire someone
All founders will hire the wrong person at some point. When asked what signals he looks for to realize he’s made a hiring mistake, Max responds with a quote from the movie Ronin:
"Whenever there's a doubt, there's no doubt."
He explains:
“When you're staring at a peer - or if you're the CEO, at a direct report - and you catch yourself thinking, I wonder if you're here next year. This person shouldn't be here today. Unfortunately, it's that binary.”
Importantly, this is not the same as hating a person’s guts at times - Max caveats that brilliant people cause that sort of emotional response. Wondering if a person will still be at the company next year is different:
”Boring people, untalented people, not hardworking people, people that don't have the company's best interest in mind, people that are undermining each other. Those people make you think I should have fired you yesterday… No one's ever said I wish I had fired that person later… When there's a doubt, there is no doubt. That's also applicable just about every other situation in life, but in people it's infinitely applicable.”
Video source: @khoslaventures (2024)
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Max Levchin on when to fire someone
All founders will hire the wrong person at some point. When asked what signals he looks for to realize he’s made a hiring mistake, Max responds with a quote from the movie Ronin:
"Whenever there's a doubt, there's no doubt."
He explains:
“When you're staring at a peer - or if you're the CEO, at a direct report - and you catch yourself thinking, I wonder if you're here next year. This person shouldn't be here today. Unfortunately, it's that binary.”
Importantly, this is not the same as hating a person’s guts at times - Max caveats that brilliant people cause that sort of emotional response. Wondering if a person will still be at the company next year is different:
”Boring people, untalented people, not hardworking people, people that don't have the company's best interest in mind, people that are undermining each other. Those people make you think I should have fired you yesterday… No one's ever said I wish I had fired that person later… When there's a doubt, there is no doubt. That's also applicable just about every other situation in life, but in people it's infinitely applicable.”
Video source: @khoslaventures (2024)
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The Transcript
RT @TheTranscript_: $BE CEO: AI-driven electricity demand is overwhelming traditional grid infrastructure
"The upcoming AI computer racks will consume almost 100x more power than traditional CPU compute racks of yesteryears" https://t.co/fxg5NqPz7p
tweet
RT @TheTranscript_: $BE CEO: AI-driven electricity demand is overwhelming traditional grid infrastructure
"The upcoming AI computer racks will consume almost 100x more power than traditional CPU compute racks of yesteryears" https://t.co/fxg5NqPz7p
tweet
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NecoKronos
If you’re grinding the markets daily, your volume should be paying for your tools 👇
https://t.co/J5F7lA6x84
We just made MMT Pro passive. Trade as usual on partner exchanges, fill the bar, and unlock the entire suite (Academy included) for $0.
No deadlines. No pressure. Just rewards for being active.
tweet
If you’re grinding the markets daily, your volume should be paying for your tools 👇
https://t.co/J5F7lA6x84
We just made MMT Pro passive. Trade as usual on partner exchanges, fill the bar, and unlock the entire suite (Academy included) for $0.
No deadlines. No pressure. Just rewards for being active.
🚨You can now get MMT Pro for FREE🚨
If you sign up through our partner exchanges, you can unlock MMT Pro access, including advanced aggregation, HD tools, and access to the Academy.
Trade where you already trade and get the terminal on us. https://t.co/BNV7XdGe7a tweet
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God of Prompt
🚨 Most founders talk about "ethics in AI" at conferences while shipping engagement-maximizing algorithms the next morning.
Dong Nguyen actually deleted $50K/day because people were too addicted. A solo dev in Hanoi had more ethical backbone than entire AI companies.
Now think about this in 2026. We have AI systems designed to be psychologically addictive. Infinite content feeds tuned by reinforcement learning.
AI companions people form emotional dependencies on. Recommendation engines that know your dopamine triggers better than you do.
Flappy Bird was a pixel bird jumping through pipes. Today's AI products are engineering compulsion at a neurological level. And nobody's pulling the plug.
Dong Nguyen lost sleep over a simple game. Meanwhile AI companies watch engagement metrics climb and call it "user love."
The uncomfortable question nobody in AI wants to answer: if your product is generating $50K/day but destroying attention spans, sleep patterns, and mental health... would you kill it?
We already know the answer. They wouldn't even slow it down.
12 years later, Dong Nguyen is still the most ethical person in tech. And that says everything about where we are.
tweet
🚨 Most founders talk about "ethics in AI" at conferences while shipping engagement-maximizing algorithms the next morning.
Dong Nguyen actually deleted $50K/day because people were too addicted. A solo dev in Hanoi had more ethical backbone than entire AI companies.
Now think about this in 2026. We have AI systems designed to be psychologically addictive. Infinite content feeds tuned by reinforcement learning.
AI companions people form emotional dependencies on. Recommendation engines that know your dopamine triggers better than you do.
Flappy Bird was a pixel bird jumping through pipes. Today's AI products are engineering compulsion at a neurological level. And nobody's pulling the plug.
Dong Nguyen lost sleep over a simple game. Meanwhile AI companies watch engagement metrics climb and call it "user love."
The uncomfortable question nobody in AI wants to answer: if your product is generating $50K/day but destroying attention spans, sleep patterns, and mental health... would you kill it?
We already know the answer. They wouldn't even slow it down.
12 years later, Dong Nguyen is still the most ethical person in tech. And that says everything about where we are.
12 years ago, ‘Flappy Bird’ creator announced he was removing the game from the App Store, due to how addictive it had become. https://t.co/bBiIMxbha8 tweet
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Benjamin Hernandez😎
Plot twist: The "gurus" posting 500% gains screenshots? Most are photoshopped or cherry-picked from 100 losing trades. My WhatsApp shows the full picture—wins AND losses, real P&L, transparent trading.
See real results 🚀 https://t.co/71FIJId47G
Send "Hi" asap.
$MU $PLTR $SOFI
tweet
Plot twist: The "gurus" posting 500% gains screenshots? Most are photoshopped or cherry-picked from 100 losing trades. My WhatsApp shows the full picture—wins AND losses, real P&L, transparent trading.
See real results 🚀 https://t.co/71FIJId47G
Send "Hi" asap.
$MU $PLTR $SOFI
📉 Deep Value Recovery: $JZXN
Recommendation: $JZXN
near $2.18 Even after a 63% rally, $JZXN remains fundamentally undervalued relative to its $1B token acquisition plans.
One-line why: This is a technical "mean reversion" play to the 200-day EMA near $1.65. https://t.co/J3Mm5EADUe tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
𝐀 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐏𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐋𝐲𝐧𝐜𝐡 𝐨𝐧 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲:
“I love volatility… Taco Bell went from $14 to $1… they had no debt, never closed a restaurant… I started buying at $7… it went to $1… Volatility is terrific.”
___
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝘝𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘥, 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥. 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘢𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘥𝘶𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘦𝘲𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺. 𝘚𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘬 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘢 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮. 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘦𝘮𝘰𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭. 𝘉𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭. 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘥𝘴, 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦.
___
A few practical lessons that help navigate volatility:
1. 𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐬. Volatility is hardest when decisions are reactive. Accumulating with a plan removes emotion. For example if I’m looking to accumulate $NOW:
20% at $130
30% at $110
30% at $100
20% at $90
Average price if all buys executed $107.
You’re no longer reacting — you’re executing.
2. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐩𝐚𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬. Starting at extreme valuations makes volatility feel far more painful.
It’s far more difficult to accumulate additional shares of $NOW if you began building a position at $200 and 70x earnings. However, if you started at 33x, it becomes much easier to continue adding at 25x or 20x. At some point, the multiple compresses to a level where 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘧𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 increases — not decreases — as the margin of safety significantly improves.
Valuation discipline → volatility becomes an advantage rather than a source of stress.
What feels like chaos in the moment often looks like opportunity in hindsight.
___
A few names that have seen notable volatility in recent weeks — worth keeping an eye on:
$AXON $MCO $NOW $NVDA $SNDK $SPGI $TDG
___
Video: Investor Talk Peter Lynch (07/05/2020)
tweet
𝐀 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐏𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐋𝐲𝐧𝐜𝐡 𝐨𝐧 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲:
“I love volatility… Taco Bell went from $14 to $1… they had no debt, never closed a restaurant… I started buying at $7… it went to $1… Volatility is terrific.”
___
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝘝𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘥, 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥. 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘢𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘥𝘶𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘦𝘲𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺. 𝘚𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘬 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘢 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮. 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘦𝘮𝘰𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭. 𝘉𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭. 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘥𝘴, 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦.
___
A few practical lessons that help navigate volatility:
1. 𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐬. Volatility is hardest when decisions are reactive. Accumulating with a plan removes emotion. For example if I’m looking to accumulate $NOW:
20% at $130
30% at $110
30% at $100
20% at $90
Average price if all buys executed $107.
You’re no longer reacting — you’re executing.
2. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐩𝐚𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬. Starting at extreme valuations makes volatility feel far more painful.
It’s far more difficult to accumulate additional shares of $NOW if you began building a position at $200 and 70x earnings. However, if you started at 33x, it becomes much easier to continue adding at 25x or 20x. At some point, the multiple compresses to a level where 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘧𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 increases — not decreases — as the margin of safety significantly improves.
Valuation discipline → volatility becomes an advantage rather than a source of stress.
What feels like chaos in the moment often looks like opportunity in hindsight.
___
A few names that have seen notable volatility in recent weeks — worth keeping an eye on:
$AXON $MCO $NOW $NVDA $SNDK $SPGI $TDG
___
Video: Investor Talk Peter Lynch (07/05/2020)
tweet
Offshore
Video
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
𝐏𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐋𝐲𝐧𝐜𝐡 𝐨𝐧 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲:
“I love volatility… Taco Bell went from $14 to $1… they had no debt, never closed a restaurant… I started buying at $7… it went to $1… Volatility is terrific.”
___
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝘝𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘥, 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥. 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘢𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘥𝘶𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘦𝘲𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺. 𝘚𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘬 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘢 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮. 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘦𝘮𝘰𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭. 𝘉𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭. 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘥𝘴, 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦.
___
A few practical lessons that help navigate volatility:
1. 𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐬. Volatility is hardest when decisions are reactive. Accumulating with a plan removes emotion. For example if I’m looking to accumulate $NOW:
20% at $130
30% at $110
30% at $100
20% at $90
Average price if all buys executed $107.
You’re no longer reacting — you’re executing.
2. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐩𝐚𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬. Starting at extreme valuations makes volatility feel far more painful.
It’s far more difficult to accumulate additional shares of $NOW if you began building a position at $200 and 70x earnings. However, if you started at 33x, it becomes much easier to continue adding at 25x or 20x. At some point, the multiple compresses to a level where 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘧𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 increases — not decreases — as the margin of safety significantly improves.
Valuation discipline → volatility becomes an advantage rather than a source of stress.
What feels like chaos in the moment often looks like opportunity in hindsight.
___
A few names that have seen notable volatility in recent weeks — worth keeping an eye on:
$AXON $MCO $NOW $NVDA $SNDK $SPGI $TDG
___
Video: Investor Talk Peter Lynch (07/05/2020)
tweet
𝐏𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐋𝐲𝐧𝐜𝐡 𝐨𝐧 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲:
“I love volatility… Taco Bell went from $14 to $1… they had no debt, never closed a restaurant… I started buying at $7… it went to $1… Volatility is terrific.”
___
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝘝𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘥, 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥. 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘢𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘥𝘶𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘦𝘲𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺. 𝘚𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘬 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘢 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮. 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘦𝘮𝘰𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭. 𝘉𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭. 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘥𝘴, 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦.
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A few practical lessons that help navigate volatility:
1. 𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐬. Volatility is hardest when decisions are reactive. Accumulating with a plan removes emotion. For example if I’m looking to accumulate $NOW:
20% at $130
30% at $110
30% at $100
20% at $90
Average price if all buys executed $107.
You’re no longer reacting — you’re executing.
2. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐩𝐚𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬. Starting at extreme valuations makes volatility feel far more painful.
It’s far more difficult to accumulate additional shares of $NOW if you began building a position at $200 and 70x earnings. However, if you started at 33x, it becomes much easier to continue adding at 25x or 20x. At some point, the multiple compresses to a level where 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘧𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 increases — not decreases — as the margin of safety significantly improves.
Valuation discipline → volatility becomes an advantage rather than a source of stress.
What feels like chaos in the moment often looks like opportunity in hindsight.
___
A few names that have seen notable volatility in recent weeks — worth keeping an eye on:
$AXON $MCO $NOW $NVDA $SNDK $SPGI $TDG
___
Video: Investor Talk Peter Lynch (07/05/2020)
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$SPGI CAGR Potential based on 2028 EPS estimates & different multiples:
EPS Estimates
Dec 2026: $19.82 (11% YoY)
Dec 2027: $22.28 (12% YoY)
Dec 2028: $24.90 (12% YoY)
CAGR assuming 2028 EPS Est:
25x → 17.4%
24x → 15.8%
23x → 14.1%
22x → 12.3%
21x → 10.6% https://t.co/lB9O0Xj4Nb
tweet
$SPGI CAGR Potential based on 2028 EPS estimates & different multiples:
EPS Estimates
Dec 2026: $19.82 (11% YoY)
Dec 2027: $22.28 (12% YoY)
Dec 2028: $24.90 (12% YoY)
CAGR assuming 2028 EPS Est:
25x → 17.4%
24x → 15.8%
23x → 14.1%
22x → 12.3%
21x → 10.6% https://t.co/lB9O0Xj4Nb
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The Few Bets That Matter
Using Buffett's quotes out of context to illustrate a behaviour he would never have... Just to confirm personal bias...
$HIMS bulls have no more limits.
Although this confirmation bias using Buffett's quotes out of context is the new normal on X 👇
https://t.co/x6eigOu6yD
tweet
Using Buffett's quotes out of context to illustrate a behaviour he would never have... Just to confirm personal bias...
$HIMS bulls have no more limits.
Although this confirmation bias using Buffett's quotes out of context is the new normal on X 👇
https://t.co/x6eigOu6yD
Not buying $HIMS at $17 a share means you think the following:
- Warren buffets famous quote "Buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy" is a load of rubbish
- $NVO will beat $HIMS in court, Hims will have to stop selling compounded GLP-1's
- $HIMS stock trading at a RSI reading of 15 is a nothing burger..
- $HIMS A company that wants to challenge 'big pharma' will not stop and slow down
You do you... 🤝🏼 tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
The Few Bets That Matter (@WealthyReadings) on X
How W. Buffett Broke Retails' Critical Thinking
The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: Market's reaction is entirely due to uncertainty with NVLinks/UALinks and the opex increase for hardware the market is uncertain of - why spend if Nvidia will replace you?
Analysts' question made it crystal clear this was the focus and the worries. Not CFO nor margins - which were expected as Scorpion P ramped up.
I think $ALAB proved it was capable with the customed Blackwell racks but the market wonders if it will be the case again with Rubin's.
Ridiculous concerns imo. But it'll need time to prove.
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RT @WealthyReadings: Market's reaction is entirely due to uncertainty with NVLinks/UALinks and the opex increase for hardware the market is uncertain of - why spend if Nvidia will replace you?
Analysts' question made it crystal clear this was the focus and the worries. Not CFO nor margins - which were expected as Scorpion P ramped up.
I think $ALAB proved it was capable with the customed Blackwell racks but the market wonders if it will be the case again with Rubin's.
Ridiculous concerns imo. But it'll need time to prove.
tweet
Offshore
Video
God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: Anthropic didn’t launch a product on Windows.
They launched a proof of concept that shipping speed beats platform ownership.
Cowork just hit Windows with full feature parity. File access, multi-step task execution, plugins, MCP connectors. Everything macOS got a month ago.
But the real story isn’t the launch. It’s the math behind why it works.
Microsoft spends $37.5B per quarter on AI infrastructure. They pre-installed Copilot on every Windows 11 machine sold. They ran $60M+ in TV ads.
450 million M365 paid seats. 15 million Copilot subscribers. 3.3% conversion rate on their own customers. Market share dropping from 18.8% to 11.5% in six months.
96.7% of their own users looked at Copilot and passed.
Not because the AI is bad. Because the architecture is broken.
Copilot inherits M365’s permission system through the Graph API. Most companies have 15%+ of business-critical files improperly accessible. Turn on Copilot and suddenly any employee can surface sensitive data with a natural language query. So enterprises freeze. Run months-long governance audits. Delay rollouts indefinitely.
Anthropic looked at that and built the opposite.
Cowork is sandboxed to one folder. No enterprise permission layer. No Graph API. You point Claude at a directory, describe what you want done, and it executes.
They built the whole thing in a week and a half using Claude Code.
A week and a half versus $37.5B a quarter. That’s an asymmetry.
Microsoft can’t fix this without rebuilding how M365 handles file access across every tenant. That’s a multi-year architectural project. Meanwhile Anthropic is already on Windows, already working, already solving the exact problem that’s keeping Copilot frozen in enterprise procurement cycles.
The old playbook was: own the OS, own the user. The new playbook is: find where the OS owner’s architecture creates friction, build something that doesn’t have that friction, and ship it on their platform before they can react.
Anthropic doesn’t need to beat Microsoft. They just need to be the thing that works while IT is still running Copilot permission audits.
And they’re already there.
tweet
RT @godofprompt: Anthropic didn’t launch a product on Windows.
They launched a proof of concept that shipping speed beats platform ownership.
Cowork just hit Windows with full feature parity. File access, multi-step task execution, plugins, MCP connectors. Everything macOS got a month ago.
But the real story isn’t the launch. It’s the math behind why it works.
Microsoft spends $37.5B per quarter on AI infrastructure. They pre-installed Copilot on every Windows 11 machine sold. They ran $60M+ in TV ads.
450 million M365 paid seats. 15 million Copilot subscribers. 3.3% conversion rate on their own customers. Market share dropping from 18.8% to 11.5% in six months.
96.7% of their own users looked at Copilot and passed.
Not because the AI is bad. Because the architecture is broken.
Copilot inherits M365’s permission system through the Graph API. Most companies have 15%+ of business-critical files improperly accessible. Turn on Copilot and suddenly any employee can surface sensitive data with a natural language query. So enterprises freeze. Run months-long governance audits. Delay rollouts indefinitely.
Anthropic looked at that and built the opposite.
Cowork is sandboxed to one folder. No enterprise permission layer. No Graph API. You point Claude at a directory, describe what you want done, and it executes.
They built the whole thing in a week and a half using Claude Code.
A week and a half versus $37.5B a quarter. That’s an asymmetry.
Microsoft can’t fix this without rebuilding how M365 handles file access across every tenant. That’s a multi-year architectural project. Meanwhile Anthropic is already on Windows, already working, already solving the exact problem that’s keeping Copilot frozen in enterprise procurement cycles.
The old playbook was: own the OS, own the user. The new playbook is: find where the OS owner’s architecture creates friction, build something that doesn’t have that friction, and ship it on their platform before they can react.
Anthropic doesn’t need to beat Microsoft. They just need to be the thing that works while IT is still running Copilot permission audits.
And they’re already there.
Introducing Claude Opus 4.6. Our smartest model got an upgrade.
Opus 4.6 plans more carefully, sustains agentic tasks for longer, operates reliably in massive codebases, and catches its own mistakes.
It’s also our first Opus-class model with 1M token context in beta. https://t.co/L1iQyRgT9x tweet