Offshore

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
While many of us are focused on $ASML strong net bookings and solid Q4 2025 results, I think there’s an 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 — 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 — 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬, especially $ASML shareholders who’ve lived through the last few years:

𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐚 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐚𝐭 (𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐬 / 𝐝𝐮𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐬), 𝐝𝐫𝐚𝐰𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐬 𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐟𝐚𝐫 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐟𝐞𝐚𝐫 — 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐚 𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐱𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬.

Not because price declines are fun.

𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺, 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘬 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦.

That alone meaningfully improves your decision-making as an investor.

𝐀𝐭 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐞, 𝐢𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐦𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬: 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟.

Let me explain.

I’m human. Like everyone else, I’m not immune to emotion. But experiencing $ASML ~50% drawdown in 2022 and ~40% drawdown in 2025 produced little emotional response for me. If anything, it felt more like an opportunity to increase ownership in a business I deeply understand and believe in.

That reaction isn’t accidental.

𝘐𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘰𝘸𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘥𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘴, 𝘩𝘪𝘨𝘩 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘺.

If you own a lower-quality business with a weak moat, similar drawdowns feel very different. Fear is amplified. Doubt creeps in. Adding becomes psychologically difficult because uncertainty is genuinely high. And there’s risk of permanent loss of capital.

$ASML was the opposite.

There is a much higher degree of certainty about its role in the global semiconductor ecosystem.

As Dev Kantesaria put it on 𝘎𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵’𝘴 𝘊𝘶𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘠𝘪𝘦𝘭𝘥 𝘗𝘰𝘥𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵:

“We wanted the most predictable way to participate in AI and we felt that was ASML, because at the end of the day the chip demand that will be needed to power the service for AI, all of that has to flow through ASML.”

𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.

And conviction, when paired with patience, allows you to stay rational during periods of weak price action — which, over time, quietly compounds into better outcomes.

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬.

𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬 — 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐚 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐛𝐞𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐲.

And in investing, building a portfolio that protects you from your own worst impulses often matters more than you think.
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