Offshore
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: R.I.P basic RAG ☠️
Graph-enhanced retrieval is the new king.
OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft engineers don't build RAG systems like everyone else.
They build knowledge graphs first.
Here are 7 ways to use graph RAG instead of vector search: https://t.co/2T9q3IaRPB
tweet
RT @godofprompt: R.I.P basic RAG ☠️
Graph-enhanced retrieval is the new king.
OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft engineers don't build RAG systems like everyone else.
They build knowledge graphs first.
Here are 7 ways to use graph RAG instead of vector search: https://t.co/2T9q3IaRPB
tweet
Offshore
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God of Prompt
RT @alex_prompter: secret life hack:
> install prompt copilot in your chrome browser
> create your context profile
> enhance your prompts with personalized info
https://t.co/ljXGkMbGyM
tweet
RT @alex_prompter: secret life hack:
> install prompt copilot in your chrome browser
> create your context profile
> enhance your prompts with personalized info
https://t.co/ljXGkMbGyM
your prompts suck and your AI forgets you exist
we fixed both:
→ prompt enhancement that actually works
→ context profiles that follow you everywhere
same you, any AI.
start for free 👉 https://t.co/TKMMCzVWj1 https://t.co/xzSQCkyvu7 tweet
Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Uber has increased its take-rate over the years.
Current Mobility Take Rate: 31%
How much higher can this go?
$UBER https://t.co/eLGTAAqIVp
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Uber has increased its take-rate over the years.
Current Mobility Take Rate: 31%
How much higher can this go?
$UBER https://t.co/eLGTAAqIVp
tweet
Offshore
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God of Prompt
50% = the model you use
50% = your prompt
interesting research.
tweet
50% = the model you use
50% = your prompt
interesting research.
MIT tested 1,900 people on AI performance.
50% was the model.
50% was the prompt.
Your skill matters as much as the model itself. https://t.co/b43Q9l16bM tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @F_Compounders: Great way to assess pricing power
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RT @F_Compounders: Great way to assess pricing power
Chris Hohn, founder of TCI, views high incremental margins as one of the strongest signals of a company’s moat & pricing power💸
Incremental operating margin tells you how much additional operating income a business generates for every additional $1 of revenue.
Here’s how to calculate it:
Pick two periods (Year 1 → Year 2)
Year 1 Revenue: $10B
Year 2 Revenue: $12B
Δ 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: $𝟐𝐁
Year 1 Operating Income: $2B
Year 2 Operating Income: $3B
Δ 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: $𝟏𝐁
𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 = Δ 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 / Δ 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞
So: $1B / $2B = 50%
𝘔𝘦𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨: 50 cents of every new $1 of revenue fell to operating profit.
___
Why this matters: High incremental margins usually signal low incremental costs, pricing power, & structural operating leverage — the traits that allow a great business to compound faster as it scales. It’s one of the cleanest ways to see whether a company’s moat is strengthening & efficiently scaling.
I’ve included 4 high-quality stocks with their incremental operating margins since 2021 for further example 👇🏽
$FICO $MSFT $MA $NFLX tweet
God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: How to write prompts that make AI give you exactly what's in your head:
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RT @godofprompt: How to write prompts that make AI give you exactly what's in your head:
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: In hindsight, perhaps a year from today, the brief moment $MSFT traded at ~26x may look like an obvious opportunity hiding in plain sight. https://t.co/G5EHiyA5AB
A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
•3-Year Mean: 30.51x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.09%
•3-Year Mean: 2.46%
As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading below fair value on a forward earnings basis
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in earnings per share & ~18% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSFT is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $102.01B
•Long-Term Debt: $35.38B
$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 58x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 34.0%
•2023: 30.9%
•2024: 29.7%
•2025: 28.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 38.8%
•2024: 37.1%
•2025: 33.3%
$MSFT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUE✅
•2021: $168.09B
•2026E: $326.83B
•CAGR: 14.22%
FREE CASH FLOW🆗*
•2021: $56.12B
•2026E: $75.05B
•CAGR: 5.98%
*This is largely due to heavy AI-related reinvestment — current 2028 FCF estimate $116.45B — worth noting operating cash flow increases underscore $MSFT efficient AI infrastructure scaling validating high ROI-potential
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2021: $7.97
•2026E: $16.26
•CAGR: 15.32%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2016 Shares Outstanding: 8.01B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 7.46B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 46.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.7%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2015: $1.24
•2025: $3.32
•CAGR: 10.34%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in EPS & ~18% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 13.65% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.65%) required growth rate:
2026E: $16.26 (19% YoY) *FY Jun
2027E: $18.75 (15% YoY)
2028E: $22.31 (19% YoY)
$MSFT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $MSFT ends 2028 with $22.31 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $669💵 … ~17.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $647💵 … ~16.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $625💵 … ~14.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $602💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $580💵 … ~11.3% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume ~28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential
At 26x - 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential
If $MSFT multiple expands slightly, >15% CAGR
$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders
Today at $454💵 $MSFT appears to be a strong consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
$MSFT has large margin of safety at $420💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.
𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥�[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: In hindsight, perhaps a year from today, the brief moment $MSFT traded at ~26x may look like an obvious opportunity hiding in plain sight. https://t.co/G5EHiyA5AB
A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
•3-Year Mean: 30.51x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.09%
•3-Year Mean: 2.46%
As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading below fair value on a forward earnings basis
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in earnings per share & ~18% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSFT is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $102.01B
•Long-Term Debt: $35.38B
$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 58x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 34.0%
•2023: 30.9%
•2024: 29.7%
•2025: 28.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 38.8%
•2024: 37.1%
•2025: 33.3%
$MSFT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUE✅
•2021: $168.09B
•2026E: $326.83B
•CAGR: 14.22%
FREE CASH FLOW🆗*
•2021: $56.12B
•2026E: $75.05B
•CAGR: 5.98%
*This is largely due to heavy AI-related reinvestment — current 2028 FCF estimate $116.45B — worth noting operating cash flow increases underscore $MSFT efficient AI infrastructure scaling validating high ROI-potential
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2021: $7.97
•2026E: $16.26
•CAGR: 15.32%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2016 Shares Outstanding: 8.01B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 7.46B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 46.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.7%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2015: $1.24
•2025: $3.32
•CAGR: 10.34%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in EPS & ~18% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 13.65% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.65%) required growth rate:
2026E: $16.26 (19% YoY) *FY Jun
2027E: $18.75 (15% YoY)
2028E: $22.31 (19% YoY)
$MSFT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $MSFT ends 2028 with $22.31 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $669💵 … ~17.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $647💵 … ~16.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $625💵 … ~14.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $602💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $580💵 … ~11.3% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume ~28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential
At 26x - 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential
If $MSFT multiple expands slightly, >15% CAGR
$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders
Today at $454💵 $MSFT appears to be a strong consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
$MSFT has large margin of safety at $420💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.
𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥�[...]