Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
Me setting aside some money to pay for that new ACA health care plan https://t.co/1JFVLM6uFG
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Me setting aside some money to pay for that new ACA health care plan https://t.co/1JFVLM6uFG
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Sam Altman explains his two biggest mistakes when he started investing in startups
“The number one mistake was that I cared too much about what other investors thought.. I think this is a very common mistake that people make when they start investing. You get very swayed by what previously successful investors think. The first question most people ask when they see startups is: Who else is investing in your round?… But the problem is everyone does that. And so there's this weird schooling effect where a company gets hot for no discernible reason… And it's just because a few people decided they liked it.”
After being too swayed by what investors think, Sam’s second biggest mistake was not understanding the power law:
“The power law means that your single best investment will be worth more to you in return than the rest of your investments put together. Your second best will be better than three through infinity put together. This is like a deeply true thing that most investors find, and this is so counterintuitive that it means almost everyone invests the wrong way.”
Most angel investors focus on compounding small wins and minimizing their failure rate—which works well when you’re investing in traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds—but as Sam explains, it is wrong to think about investing in startups this way:
“Angel investing is a business of home runs and you want to look for things that can be potential home runs… It's all about the magnitude of your biggest success. It is not about the failure rate… You can have 95% of your investments fail if one of them returns a billion dollars, and you'll be totally happy… The first question that I try to ask myself when I meet a startup is not why is it going to fail… The first question is how big could this be if it works? Can I imagine this founder, this idea, this market, supporting a massive, massive company?… I found that if I thought about what could go wrong first, I filtered out the companies that could be giant. The companies that could be giant are at this intersection of sounds like a bad idea is a good idea. And because that's a very narrow intersection and because they sound like a bad idea, the best investments are the ones that are easiest to talk yourself out of if you start off thinking about why they could go wrong.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2018)
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Sam Altman explains his two biggest mistakes when he started investing in startups
“The number one mistake was that I cared too much about what other investors thought.. I think this is a very common mistake that people make when they start investing. You get very swayed by what previously successful investors think. The first question most people ask when they see startups is: Who else is investing in your round?… But the problem is everyone does that. And so there's this weird schooling effect where a company gets hot for no discernible reason… And it's just because a few people decided they liked it.”
After being too swayed by what investors think, Sam’s second biggest mistake was not understanding the power law:
“The power law means that your single best investment will be worth more to you in return than the rest of your investments put together. Your second best will be better than three through infinity put together. This is like a deeply true thing that most investors find, and this is so counterintuitive that it means almost everyone invests the wrong way.”
Most angel investors focus on compounding small wins and minimizing their failure rate—which works well when you’re investing in traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds—but as Sam explains, it is wrong to think about investing in startups this way:
“Angel investing is a business of home runs and you want to look for things that can be potential home runs… It's all about the magnitude of your biggest success. It is not about the failure rate… You can have 95% of your investments fail if one of them returns a billion dollars, and you'll be totally happy… The first question that I try to ask myself when I meet a startup is not why is it going to fail… The first question is how big could this be if it works? Can I imagine this founder, this idea, this market, supporting a massive, massive company?… I found that if I thought about what could go wrong first, I filtered out the companies that could be giant. The companies that could be giant are at this intersection of sounds like a bad idea is a good idea. And because that's a very narrow intersection and because they sound like a bad idea, the best investments are the ones that are easiest to talk yourself out of if you start off thinking about why they could go wrong.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2018)
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Offshore
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God of Prompt
R.I.P. basic prompting.
MIT just dropped a technique that makes ChatGPT reason like a team of experts instead of one overconfident intern.
It’s called “Recursive Meta-Cognition” and it outperforms standard prompts by 110%.
Here’s the prompt (and why this changes everything) 👇 https://t.co/caDTB52TS9
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R.I.P. basic prompting.
MIT just dropped a technique that makes ChatGPT reason like a team of experts instead of one overconfident intern.
It’s called “Recursive Meta-Cognition” and it outperforms standard prompts by 110%.
Here’s the prompt (and why this changes everything) 👇 https://t.co/caDTB52TS9
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: $TSM TSMC Q4 FY25:
• Revenue +25% Y/Y to $33.7B ($1.0B beat).
• 3nm 28% of wafer revenue (+2pp Y/Y).
• Capex $11.5B (vs. $9.7B in Q3 FY25).
• EPADR $3.14 ($0.16 beat). https://t.co/bGRlZFbWrf
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RT @EconomyApp: $TSM TSMC Q4 FY25:
• Revenue +25% Y/Y to $33.7B ($1.0B beat).
• 3nm 28% of wafer revenue (+2pp Y/Y).
• Capex $11.5B (vs. $9.7B in Q3 FY25).
• EPADR $3.14 ($0.16 beat). https://t.co/bGRlZFbWrf
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Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
Comparing $NVO to $LLY is like comparing an air balloon to a fighter jet.
It may look good, but you're wrong.
$NVO has traded around ~5x sales for most of its history, with <10% growth. at today’s growth rate, it is not cheap.
the bull case is wegovy oral pills and a potential 15%+ growth thanks to them. if that happens, $nvo can justify 6–7x sales, meaning ~$70/share.
if it doesn’t, going to war with an air balloon is just signing your own death sentence.
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Comparing $NVO to $LLY is like comparing an air balloon to a fighter jet.
It may look good, but you're wrong.
$NVO has traded around ~5x sales for most of its history, with <10% growth. at today’s growth rate, it is not cheap.
the bull case is wegovy oral pills and a potential 15%+ growth thanks to them. if that happens, $nvo can justify 6–7x sales, meaning ~$70/share.
if it doesn’t, going to war with an air balloon is just signing your own death sentence.
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Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
$UPS is one of the best setups in the market.
It’s not sexy; but a 100%+ return buys plenty of sexy stuff, even made on unsexy names.
$UPS is a defensive asset trading ~50% below its historical average multiples, while the market has been crystal clear on what it wants: defensives.
Nothing is guaranteed.
But this one is as close as it gets.
Detailed plan below 👇
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$UPS is one of the best setups in the market.
It’s not sexy; but a 100%+ return buys plenty of sexy stuff, even made on unsexy names.
$UPS is a defensive asset trading ~50% below its historical average multiples, while the market has been crystal clear on what it wants: defensives.
Nothing is guaranteed.
But this one is as close as it gets.
Detailed plan below 👇
https://t.co/1H9kTnRWyu tweet
Offshore
Video
God of Prompt
Holy shit, 2+ minute videos with 10 style variations from ONE image?
GMI Studio just bodied half the video AI market.
1.4x faster too.
This is what happens when engineers actually cook instead of tweeting roadmaps.
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Holy shit, 2+ minute videos with 10 style variations from ONE image?
GMI Studio just bodied half the video AI market.
1.4x faster too.
This is what happens when engineers actually cook instead of tweeting roadmaps.
GMI Studio is officially here.
We’ve moved beyond multimodal hubs to create a dedicated workflow engine for high-end AI creation.
- Long-form video (2 min+).
- 1 image, 10 video styles, cinematic output.
- 1.4x faster generation speed, powered by GMI inference.
- Social feed: Discover and like.
The beta is over. The studio is open. tweet
Offshore
Video
The Few Bets That Matter
If your position is down 30%+, you made a mistake. A big one.
This applies to every stock, not just $DUOL, and it doesn’t mean $DUOL is a bad company or that Antonio is a bad stock picker.
Everyone makes mistakes.
But holding a stock down 70% is not conviction. It’s ego.
It means you own a company the market refuses to reward while you insist you’re right. Millions scream at you that you are wrong, and you ignore them.
You’re still down 70%. That’s a fact. That's the definition of being wrong.
Even if $DUOL makes new highs in two or three years, you were still wrong then. You misunderstood something and paid for it with years of underperformance, likely more as you probably will DCA to the grave.
By ego, again.
The market decides who’s right and who’s wrong. A buy at $150 may be right. But the original thesis wasn’t.
You should accept being wrong.
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If your position is down 30%+, you made a mistake. A big one.
This applies to every stock, not just $DUOL, and it doesn’t mean $DUOL is a bad company or that Antonio is a bad stock picker.
Everyone makes mistakes.
But holding a stock down 70% is not conviction. It’s ego.
It means you own a company the market refuses to reward while you insist you’re right. Millions scream at you that you are wrong, and you ignore them.
You’re still down 70%. That’s a fact. That's the definition of being wrong.
Even if $DUOL makes new highs in two or three years, you were still wrong then. You misunderstood something and paid for it with years of underperformance, likely more as you probably will DCA to the grave.
By ego, again.
The market decides who’s right and who’s wrong. A buy at $150 may be right. But the original thesis wasn’t.
You should accept being wrong.
$DUOL is down 70% from the highs.
It may be time to admit that I was wrong... https://t.co/vQZRmOxY41 tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Last week, we caught this trade.
Representative McClain was just questioned on it.
She said that if it was insider trading, she would have bought "a heck of a lot more". https://t.co/nxLD7wNGfT
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Last week, we caught this trade.
Representative McClain was just questioned on it.
She said that if it was insider trading, she would have bought "a heck of a lot more". https://t.co/nxLD7wNGfT
BREAKING: Representative Lisa McClain just filed a purchase of up to $250K of private stock in Elon Musk’s xAI.
McClain sits on the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation.
The US military is currently using xAI’s Grok. https://t.co/yz0B3XMfTE tweet