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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @0xDevShah: Meta acquired @ManusAI. Not a model company, they acquired an environment company, and the distinction is important.
I have a solid argument favoring that intelligence cannot exist in isolation. It cannot be dissociated from the context and environment in which it operationalizes itself. Manus has internalized this completely.
Manus runs on Claude with its custom tools built for orchestration and grounding. Their agentic environment enables the agents to browse, write code, manipulate files, and execute multi-step workflows without human in the loop.
They also beat OpenAI on GAIA. An interesting thing here is that they didn't build a foundation model. They built the most compatible environment for models to reason and act within.
I'm coining a new term here: Situated Agency. Situated Agency is an idea that agentic capabilities are not intrinsic to the model alone, but they emerge from the coupling of a model with tools, memory, and execution environment. Manus is perhaps the first company to productize Situated Agency at scale. And now Meta owns it.
Actually, this changes everything.
Meta spent a lot of time struggling to build SOTA models. Llama 4 was a disappointment. Behemoth was delayed because it couldn't compete with other frontier models. They built the Superintelligence team. Acquired Scale AI. All attempts were made to close the gaps.
And now the execution layer.
Manus has achieved SOTA agentic performance without training a single model. They engineered the environments and let Claude handle the inference-time compute. Meta might be positioning to become an agentic infrastructure company, not a foundation model company.
Meta has -
> Billions of users generating real-world task data and feedback loops daily
> Rayban glasses and Quest headsets as interfaces for agents
> WhatsApp, Messenger, Instagram as mediums for task delegation
> Zuckerberg also mentioned that he is pushing for personal superintelligence on all wearables
None of this requires Meta to have the SOTA model on MMLU. It requires Meta to have the best execution environment for models to act on behalf of users.
The Avocado rumours become interesting here.
Avocado is Meta's tbd closed model, reportedly being developed under @alexandr_wang. If Manus's agentic systems are genuinely model-agnostic, which their architecture suggests, then nothing blocks Meta from swapping Claude for Avocado.
Manus already runs Claude and fine-tuned Qwen interchangeably, routing different subtasks to different models based on capabilities. The architecture abstracts the model layer behind a smartly engineered tool-calling interface.
This gives Meta a production-tested agentic environment with $125M ARR that they can gradually integrate. They inherit the execution layer, the context engineering IP, the sandboxed compute infrastructure, the customer feedback loops, then port it to Avocado when the model is ready.
Things could get hot if Meta fully commits to this thesis.
OpenAI is building vertically. Foundation models, custom chips, agent frameworks, consumer applications. Google is building vertically. TPUs, Gemini, search, workspace integration. Both are betting that owning the foundation model layer is essential to capturing value.
Meta could be betting the opposite. If Situated Agency is correct, then the best strategy would be to build the best orchestration infrastructure. Let others race to improve the SOTA models, and swap in whatever model scores highest on your agent benchmarks at any given moment.
This is how Android beat iOS in market share. Google didn't build the best hardware. They built the best platform layer for hardware makers to build on, then captured the market. Meta making the same bet on agentic AI fits with Zuckerberg's playbook.
Manus may be the first sign that suggests Meta is thinking this way about AI agents.
Congrats to Meta and the complete teams at Manus AI! tweet
RT @0xDevShah: Meta acquired @ManusAI. Not a model company, they acquired an environment company, and the distinction is important.
I have a solid argument favoring that intelligence cannot exist in isolation. It cannot be dissociated from the context and environment in which it operationalizes itself. Manus has internalized this completely.
Manus runs on Claude with its custom tools built for orchestration and grounding. Their agentic environment enables the agents to browse, write code, manipulate files, and execute multi-step workflows without human in the loop.
They also beat OpenAI on GAIA. An interesting thing here is that they didn't build a foundation model. They built the most compatible environment for models to reason and act within.
I'm coining a new term here: Situated Agency. Situated Agency is an idea that agentic capabilities are not intrinsic to the model alone, but they emerge from the coupling of a model with tools, memory, and execution environment. Manus is perhaps the first company to productize Situated Agency at scale. And now Meta owns it.
Actually, this changes everything.
Meta spent a lot of time struggling to build SOTA models. Llama 4 was a disappointment. Behemoth was delayed because it couldn't compete with other frontier models. They built the Superintelligence team. Acquired Scale AI. All attempts were made to close the gaps.
And now the execution layer.
Manus has achieved SOTA agentic performance without training a single model. They engineered the environments and let Claude handle the inference-time compute. Meta might be positioning to become an agentic infrastructure company, not a foundation model company.
Meta has -
> Billions of users generating real-world task data and feedback loops daily
> Rayban glasses and Quest headsets as interfaces for agents
> WhatsApp, Messenger, Instagram as mediums for task delegation
> Zuckerberg also mentioned that he is pushing for personal superintelligence on all wearables
None of this requires Meta to have the SOTA model on MMLU. It requires Meta to have the best execution environment for models to act on behalf of users.
The Avocado rumours become interesting here.
Avocado is Meta's tbd closed model, reportedly being developed under @alexandr_wang. If Manus's agentic systems are genuinely model-agnostic, which their architecture suggests, then nothing blocks Meta from swapping Claude for Avocado.
Manus already runs Claude and fine-tuned Qwen interchangeably, routing different subtasks to different models based on capabilities. The architecture abstracts the model layer behind a smartly engineered tool-calling interface.
This gives Meta a production-tested agentic environment with $125M ARR that they can gradually integrate. They inherit the execution layer, the context engineering IP, the sandboxed compute infrastructure, the customer feedback loops, then port it to Avocado when the model is ready.
Things could get hot if Meta fully commits to this thesis.
OpenAI is building vertically. Foundation models, custom chips, agent frameworks, consumer applications. Google is building vertically. TPUs, Gemini, search, workspace integration. Both are betting that owning the foundation model layer is essential to capturing value.
Meta could be betting the opposite. If Situated Agency is correct, then the best strategy would be to build the best orchestration infrastructure. Let others race to improve the SOTA models, and swap in whatever model scores highest on your agent benchmarks at any given moment.
This is how Android beat iOS in market share. Google didn't build the best hardware. They built the best platform layer for hardware makers to build on, then captured the market. Meta making the same bet on agentic AI fits with Zuckerberg's playbook.
Manus may be the first sign that suggests Meta is thinking this way about AI agents.
Congrats to Meta and the complete teams at Manus AI! tweet
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memenodes
When she comes to apologize and catches me with the girl we were arguing about https://t.co/AnF2tl5kJu
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When she comes to apologize and catches me with the girl we were arguing about https://t.co/AnF2tl5kJu
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Ending 2025 Take On The U.S. Economy…And An Apology From The Bottom Of My Heart For My Realistic Yet Pessimistic Takes On The State Of The Economy….
As 2025 ends, the U.S. economy still looks solid at the surface. Stocks are higher. GDP prints are strong. Unemployment remains low by historical standards. But once you step back and connect households, labor, credit, and real world activity, the picture becomes more fragile.
This isn’t an economy in freefall. But it is one being carried by a shrinking set of supports while pressure builds underneath.
Growth and Markets: Real Numbers, Narrow Support
Real GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3, the strongest in two years, driven mainly by consumer spending (+3.5%) and exports (+8.8%). On paper, that looks like acceleration.
The issue is what kind of spending is doing the work. Roughly 70% of GDP is consumption, and an increasing share reflects non discretionary or imputed costs, not confidence. Healthcare alone accounts for 17% of PCE, running near $3.6T annualized. That lifts GDP, but it says more about rising mandatory expenses than broad consumer strength.
Markets told a different story. The S&P 500 gained 17–19%, the Nasdaq 21%, and the Dow 11%, powered by AI optimism and expectations of easier Fed policy. Asset prices moved ahead. Household reality did not.
Labor and Sentiment: Cooling Is Becoming Visible
The labor market is no longer tightening. Unemployment rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.1% in January, with just 64,000 jobs added. Underemployment (U-6) climbed to 8.7%.
Layoffs reached 1.17 million through November, up 54% year over year, concentrated in tech, healthcare, and industrials. Consumer sentiment reflects that shift. The University of Michigan index ended December at 52.9, nearly 30% lower YoY, while the Conference Board index fell to 89.1, its fifth straight monthly decline.
Household Stress Is Broadening
Debt pressure is spreading across categories…
• Credit card delinquencies: 12.4%, exceeding 20% in lower income areas
• Auto loans: 5.02%, a 15 year high
• Student loans: 9.4%, rising sharply after repayment resumed
• Mortgages: 3.76%, with FHA near 10.8%
Bankruptcies are rising alongside it. Filings are up 8–10% YoY, with 717 large corporate cases, the highest since 2010. Individual filings rose 8%, with roughly 41,000 in November alone.
CRE, Trade, and the Physical Economy
Commercial real estate remains a pressure point. Office vacancy rates sit near 19%, well above long term norms. Industrial vacancies have edged higher, while retail remains comparatively tight.
Trade policy added another layer of strain in 2025. Average tariffs moved above 15%, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 35% on Canadian goods complicating supply chains.
Trucking: A Quiet Signal
Freight continues to confirm the slowdown in goods demand. Truck tonnage rose just 0.2% in November, but remains down nearly 7% YoY. Spot rates are lower, and load postings are down 15–22%, pointing to soft volumes and ongoing capacity adjustment.
Overall
The U.S. economy is increasingly unbalanced. Growth is being padded by non discretionary spending, markets are running ahead of household fundamentals, labor is cooling, and credit stress is spreading.
This is the late cycle phase where momentum fades quietly, long before the data forces a name onto it.
tweet
Ending 2025 Take On The U.S. Economy…And An Apology From The Bottom Of My Heart For My Realistic Yet Pessimistic Takes On The State Of The Economy….
As 2025 ends, the U.S. economy still looks solid at the surface. Stocks are higher. GDP prints are strong. Unemployment remains low by historical standards. But once you step back and connect households, labor, credit, and real world activity, the picture becomes more fragile.
This isn’t an economy in freefall. But it is one being carried by a shrinking set of supports while pressure builds underneath.
Growth and Markets: Real Numbers, Narrow Support
Real GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3, the strongest in two years, driven mainly by consumer spending (+3.5%) and exports (+8.8%). On paper, that looks like acceleration.
The issue is what kind of spending is doing the work. Roughly 70% of GDP is consumption, and an increasing share reflects non discretionary or imputed costs, not confidence. Healthcare alone accounts for 17% of PCE, running near $3.6T annualized. That lifts GDP, but it says more about rising mandatory expenses than broad consumer strength.
Markets told a different story. The S&P 500 gained 17–19%, the Nasdaq 21%, and the Dow 11%, powered by AI optimism and expectations of easier Fed policy. Asset prices moved ahead. Household reality did not.
Labor and Sentiment: Cooling Is Becoming Visible
The labor market is no longer tightening. Unemployment rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.1% in January, with just 64,000 jobs added. Underemployment (U-6) climbed to 8.7%.
Layoffs reached 1.17 million through November, up 54% year over year, concentrated in tech, healthcare, and industrials. Consumer sentiment reflects that shift. The University of Michigan index ended December at 52.9, nearly 30% lower YoY, while the Conference Board index fell to 89.1, its fifth straight monthly decline.
Household Stress Is Broadening
Debt pressure is spreading across categories…
• Credit card delinquencies: 12.4%, exceeding 20% in lower income areas
• Auto loans: 5.02%, a 15 year high
• Student loans: 9.4%, rising sharply after repayment resumed
• Mortgages: 3.76%, with FHA near 10.8%
Bankruptcies are rising alongside it. Filings are up 8–10% YoY, with 717 large corporate cases, the highest since 2010. Individual filings rose 8%, with roughly 41,000 in November alone.
CRE, Trade, and the Physical Economy
Commercial real estate remains a pressure point. Office vacancy rates sit near 19%, well above long term norms. Industrial vacancies have edged higher, while retail remains comparatively tight.
Trade policy added another layer of strain in 2025. Average tariffs moved above 15%, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 35% on Canadian goods complicating supply chains.
Trucking: A Quiet Signal
Freight continues to confirm the slowdown in goods demand. Truck tonnage rose just 0.2% in November, but remains down nearly 7% YoY. Spot rates are lower, and load postings are down 15–22%, pointing to soft volumes and ongoing capacity adjustment.
Overall
The U.S. economy is increasingly unbalanced. Growth is being padded by non discretionary spending, markets are running ahead of household fundamentals, labor is cooling, and credit stress is spreading.
This is the late cycle phase where momentum fades quietly, long before the data forces a name onto it.
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memenodes
The 2026 hasn’t even started yet and it’s already over
Fcuk em
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The 2026 hasn’t even started yet and it’s already over
Fcuk em
[ ZOOMER ]
TRUMP MEDIA TO LAUNCH AND AIRDROP NEW TOKEN TO ITS SHAREHOLDERS, WILL ALSO HAVE BENEFITS FOR TRUMP PRODUCTS SUCH AS TRUTH SOCIAL: PRESS RELEASE tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
zoomer (@zoomerfied) on X
[ ZOOMER ]
TRUMP MEDIA TO LAUNCH AND AIRDROP NEW TOKEN TO ITS SHAREHOLDERS, WILL ALSO HAVE BENEFITS FOR TRUMP PRODUCTS SUCH AS TRUTH SOCIAL: PRESS RELEASE
TRUMP MEDIA TO LAUNCH AND AIRDROP NEW TOKEN TO ITS SHAREHOLDERS, WILL ALSO HAVE BENEFITS FOR TRUMP PRODUCTS SUCH AS TRUTH SOCIAL: PRESS RELEASE
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EndGame Macro
“Recognize reality even when you don’t like it. Especially when you don’t like it.”
- Charlie Munger
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“Recognize reality even when you don’t like it. Especially when you don’t like it.”
- Charlie Munger
BREAKING: MicroStrategy stock, $MSTR, falls toward a new 52-week low, now on track to end 2025 down -48%. https://t.co/BQ1STR8jka tweet
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Giuliano
We sat down with @Chancellorpen and recorded the ideal podcast episode.
We talked about a wide range of books and ideas:
- Steve Jobs: Simplicity, create soulful work, focus.
- Darwin: Contrarianism, truth, what research really is.
- Munger: Take a simple idea and take it seriously.
- Michelangelo vs Da Vinci.
- Galois (unknown 20yr old genius).
- Ted Turner: Why the best ones do read Classics.
- Sinegal: Learned everything from Sol Price.
And a lot more.
It was real fun and I hope you enjoy it:
https://t.co/lJKXMIkkfy
tweet
We sat down with @Chancellorpen and recorded the ideal podcast episode.
We talked about a wide range of books and ideas:
- Steve Jobs: Simplicity, create soulful work, focus.
- Darwin: Contrarianism, truth, what research really is.
- Munger: Take a simple idea and take it seriously.
- Michelangelo vs Da Vinci.
- Galois (unknown 20yr old genius).
- Ted Turner: Why the best ones do read Classics.
- Sinegal: Learned everything from Sol Price.
And a lot more.
It was real fun and I hope you enjoy it:
https://t.co/lJKXMIkkfy
tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
You will always underperform if you judge a stock the same way you judge a company.
They are fundamentally different, and far too many investors fail to understand this.
A company’s “greatness” is defined by many factors. Longevity, cash flow, employees, compensation, importance, by the added value of its product or service... At that point, greatness is almost subjective, more opinion than fact.
But a great stock has only one criteria: that it trades higher today than yesterday.
As stock pickers, that is the only thing that matters.
Yet many investors assume that a great company must be a great stock. Nothing is further from the truth. So many incredible companies deliver mediocre returns, and often for very valid reasons. But we need to understand the market to understand this fact.
The market cares about one thing only: safe and growing future cash generation.
Everything else is noise.
That is why so many outstanding companies underperform; not because they are bad businesses, but because they are not accelerating, not expanding margins, not safely compounding cash.
The market rewards companies whose future cash flows are secure and/or growing rapidly. Those are great stocks.
For all the $PYPL, $NVO & so many others, please understand: the market will rewards growth acceleration, safe compounding and expanding margins.
If your stock has none of those with no data pointing to it happening... It isn't a great stock.
But it can be a great company.
tweet
You will always underperform if you judge a stock the same way you judge a company.
They are fundamentally different, and far too many investors fail to understand this.
A company’s “greatness” is defined by many factors. Longevity, cash flow, employees, compensation, importance, by the added value of its product or service... At that point, greatness is almost subjective, more opinion than fact.
But a great stock has only one criteria: that it trades higher today than yesterday.
As stock pickers, that is the only thing that matters.
Yet many investors assume that a great company must be a great stock. Nothing is further from the truth. So many incredible companies deliver mediocre returns, and often for very valid reasons. But we need to understand the market to understand this fact.
The market cares about one thing only: safe and growing future cash generation.
Everything else is noise.
That is why so many outstanding companies underperform; not because they are bad businesses, but because they are not accelerating, not expanding margins, not safely compounding cash.
The market rewards companies whose future cash flows are secure and/or growing rapidly. Those are great stocks.
For all the $PYPL, $NVO & so many others, please understand: the market will rewards growth acceleration, safe compounding and expanding margins.
If your stock has none of those with no data pointing to it happening... It isn't a great stock.
But it can be a great company.
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
As we head into the New Year, here are 5 quality stocks I’m closely watching 💵
NTM P/E | 3-Year Avg | EPS CAGR est 26’-28’
1. $MELI | 40x | 51x | +39%🤝
2. $NFLX | 30x | 35x | +17%📺
3. $MSFT | 29x | 31x | +17%☁️
4. $FICO | 42x | 49x | +22%🏦
5. $AMZN | 31x | 44x | +26%📦
tweet
As we head into the New Year, here are 5 quality stocks I’m closely watching 💵
NTM P/E | 3-Year Avg | EPS CAGR est 26’-28’
1. $MELI | 40x | 51x | +39%🤝
2. $NFLX | 30x | 35x | +17%📺
3. $MSFT | 29x | 31x | +17%☁️
4. $FICO | 42x | 49x | +22%🏦
5. $AMZN | 31x | 44x | +26%📦
tweet
Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
You will always underperform if you judge a stock the same way you judge a company.
They are fundamentally different, and far too many investors fail to understand this.
A company’s “greatness” is defined by many factors. Longevity, cash flow, employees, compensation, importance, by the added value of its product or service... At that point, greatness is almost subjective, more opinion than fact.
But a great stock has only one criteria: that it trades higher today than yesterday.
As stock pickers, that is the only thing that matters.
Yet many investors assume that a great company must be a great stock. Nothing is further from the truth. So many incredible companies deliver mediocre returns, and often for very valid reasons. But we need to understand the market to understand this fact.
The market cares about one thing only: safe and growing future cash generation.
Everything else is noise.
That is why so many outstanding companies underperform; not because they are bad businesses, but because they are not accelerating, not expanding margins, not safely compounding cash.
The market rewards companies whose future cash flows are secure and/or growing rapidly. Those are great stocks.
For all the $PYPL, $NVO, $HIMS & so many others, please understand: the market will rewards growth acceleration, safe compounding and expanding margins.
If your stock has none of those with no data pointing to it happening... It isn't a great stock.
But it can be a great company.
tweet
You will always underperform if you judge a stock the same way you judge a company.
They are fundamentally different, and far too many investors fail to understand this.
A company’s “greatness” is defined by many factors. Longevity, cash flow, employees, compensation, importance, by the added value of its product or service... At that point, greatness is almost subjective, more opinion than fact.
But a great stock has only one criteria: that it trades higher today than yesterday.
As stock pickers, that is the only thing that matters.
Yet many investors assume that a great company must be a great stock. Nothing is further from the truth. So many incredible companies deliver mediocre returns, and often for very valid reasons. But we need to understand the market to understand this fact.
The market cares about one thing only: safe and growing future cash generation.
Everything else is noise.
That is why so many outstanding companies underperform; not because they are bad businesses, but because they are not accelerating, not expanding margins, not safely compounding cash.
The market rewards companies whose future cash flows are secure and/or growing rapidly. Those are great stocks.
For all the $PYPL, $NVO, $HIMS & so many others, please understand: the market will rewards growth acceleration, safe compounding and expanding margins.
If your stock has none of those with no data pointing to it happening... It isn't a great stock.
But it can be a great company.
tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
This depicts a potential situation which everyone should fear.
As investors, this is what will make us filthy rich. https://t.co/VsbrpOXccS
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This depicts a potential situation which everyone should fear.
As investors, this is what will make us filthy rich. https://t.co/VsbrpOXccS
tweet