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EndGame Macro
Japan Didn’t Hike to Tighten It Hiked to Avoid Losing Control
This is Japan acknowledging something it hasn’t been able to say for most of the last 30 years which is wages are rising, companies are actually passing costs through, and inflation looks stickier than a temporary FX or energy shock. When you finally get a real wage price loop, staying at emergency era rates starts to create more risk than moving away from them. The BoJ is choosing to normalize carefully now, while it still has control, rather than wait until the yen or inflation expectations force its hand.
The yen tells you how fragile that confidence still is. Sitting around 157, it’s basically the market saying, “We hear you, but one hike doesn’t fix rate differentials or Japan’s fiscal math.” That’s why you also hear government officials stressing debt service, the neutral rate, and the need to watch the outlook. They’re not contradicting the BoJ, they’re quietly reminding everyone that normalization has limits.
Why This Matters Outside Japan
The immediate impact isn’t about Japan slowing its own economy. It’s about funding. The yen has been the world’s cheapest source of leverage for years, and Japan has been a steady buyer of global bonds. When rates rise, even modestly, that cushion thins. Carry trades get less forgiving, hedging costs go up, and global markets get choppier especially in FX and rates.
The next layer is more subtle. Higher Japanese yields and higher hedging costs can keep U.S. and European long rates from falling much, even as growth weakens. That’s a form of tightening that doesn’t come from the Fed, but it still hits credit, refinancing, and risk assets. You tend to see the stress show up first in levered credit, emerging markets, and long duration trades that depend on calm funding conditions.
If the World Slips Into Recession
This is where the setup gets uncomfortable. In a real risk off move, the yen doesn’t stay a funding currency, it often flips into a safe haven. When that happens, carry trades don’t unwind slowly; they snap. The BoJ might pause later if growth cracks, but the bigger change doesn’t go away…Japan is no longer a permanent zero rate anchor, and global leverage has to adjust to that reality.
What I’m Watching
I’m less focused on the first reaction and more on the follow through. Does USDJPY keep drifting, or does it start to move with volatility? Do hedging costs and cross currency basis tighten? How do JGB 10s and 30s behave, and does the government quietly adjust issuance to calm the long end? And most importantly, do credit spreads start to widen as rates stay sticky while growth fades?
That’s where you find out whether this was just a symbolic step or the beginning of a real shift in the global funding backdrop.
tweet
Japan Didn’t Hike to Tighten It Hiked to Avoid Losing Control
This is Japan acknowledging something it hasn’t been able to say for most of the last 30 years which is wages are rising, companies are actually passing costs through, and inflation looks stickier than a temporary FX or energy shock. When you finally get a real wage price loop, staying at emergency era rates starts to create more risk than moving away from them. The BoJ is choosing to normalize carefully now, while it still has control, rather than wait until the yen or inflation expectations force its hand.
The yen tells you how fragile that confidence still is. Sitting around 157, it’s basically the market saying, “We hear you, but one hike doesn’t fix rate differentials or Japan’s fiscal math.” That’s why you also hear government officials stressing debt service, the neutral rate, and the need to watch the outlook. They’re not contradicting the BoJ, they’re quietly reminding everyone that normalization has limits.
Why This Matters Outside Japan
The immediate impact isn’t about Japan slowing its own economy. It’s about funding. The yen has been the world’s cheapest source of leverage for years, and Japan has been a steady buyer of global bonds. When rates rise, even modestly, that cushion thins. Carry trades get less forgiving, hedging costs go up, and global markets get choppier especially in FX and rates.
The next layer is more subtle. Higher Japanese yields and higher hedging costs can keep U.S. and European long rates from falling much, even as growth weakens. That’s a form of tightening that doesn’t come from the Fed, but it still hits credit, refinancing, and risk assets. You tend to see the stress show up first in levered credit, emerging markets, and long duration trades that depend on calm funding conditions.
If the World Slips Into Recession
This is where the setup gets uncomfortable. In a real risk off move, the yen doesn’t stay a funding currency, it often flips into a safe haven. When that happens, carry trades don’t unwind slowly; they snap. The BoJ might pause later if growth cracks, but the bigger change doesn’t go away…Japan is no longer a permanent zero rate anchor, and global leverage has to adjust to that reality.
What I’m Watching
I’m less focused on the first reaction and more on the follow through. Does USDJPY keep drifting, or does it start to move with volatility? Do hedging costs and cross currency basis tighten? How do JGB 10s and 30s behave, and does the government quietly adjust issuance to calm the long end? And most importantly, do credit spreads start to widen as rates stay sticky while growth fades?
That’s where you find out whether this was just a symbolic step or the beginning of a real shift in the global funding backdrop.
JUST IN 🚨: Bank of Japan hikes rate to highest level in 30 years 📈🤯 tweet
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App Economy Insights
$MU Micron is officially sold out.
It’s the "most significant disconnect between supply and demand" in 25 years.
• HBM sold out for 2026
• Rationing for key customers
• Guidance shattered by $4B+
Full breakdown & what comes next:
https://t.co/IGuMhE7XYL
tweet
$MU Micron is officially sold out.
It’s the "most significant disconnect between supply and demand" in 25 years.
• HBM sold out for 2026
• Rationing for key customers
• Guidance shattered by $4B+
Full breakdown & what comes next:
https://t.co/IGuMhE7XYL
tweet
Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
$NKE is a textbook example of why you do not buy downtrends.
The narrative was “the brand will never die.”
Maybe it won’t. That does not mean the stock is a buy.
This stock is "an obvious buy" since more than a year ago. Things only got worse since.
You don’t know the future.
You don’t know if your thesis - which is only speculation, will be right.
You don’t know what can happen next.
So. You. Don't. Buy.
If $NKE is truly a turnaround story, it won’t happen in a day. It will take months, maybe years, to develop. Let the data confirm your thesis. Let price action confirm market appetite.
That's. When. You. Buy.
Until then, your bull case is just an opinion.
And opinions don’t make money.
tweet
$NKE is a textbook example of why you do not buy downtrends.
The narrative was “the brand will never die.”
Maybe it won’t. That does not mean the stock is a buy.
This stock is "an obvious buy" since more than a year ago. Things only got worse since.
You don’t know the future.
You don’t know if your thesis - which is only speculation, will be right.
You don’t know what can happen next.
So. You. Don't. Buy.
If $NKE is truly a turnaround story, it won’t happen in a day. It will take months, maybe years, to develop. Let the data confirm your thesis. Let price action confirm market appetite.
That's. When. You. Buy.
Until then, your bull case is just an opinion.
And opinions don’t make money.
tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
$NBIS is the best AI infrastructure platform outside the hyperscalers. No debate here.
Best compute quality, best pricing, a frictionless environment and availability in every critical geography.
On acquisition... Dan should listen more to management interviews. This is a team driven by conviction and ambition. They are not here to sell. They're here to compete.
Their benchmark isn’t $CRWV. It’s $MSFT and $GOOG.
They’re building to become the new compute standard.
tweet
$NBIS is the best AI infrastructure platform outside the hyperscalers. No debate here.
Best compute quality, best pricing, a frictionless environment and availability in every critical geography.
On acquisition... Dan should listen more to management interviews. This is a team driven by conviction and ambition. They are not here to sell. They're here to compete.
Their benchmark isn’t $CRWV. It’s $MSFT and $GOOG.
They’re building to become the new compute standard.
Top 10 Tech Predictions for 2026 🍿🐂🏆🔥👇📱 https://t.co/ckEEJCyUuT tweet
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Fiscal.ai
RT @StockMKTNewz: Here's how much revenue Nike $NKE has brought in every quarter over the last decade
Q3 2015: $7.7B
Q3 2025: $12.4B https://t.co/NDlxV7SY6Y
tweet
RT @StockMKTNewz: Here's how much revenue Nike $NKE has brought in every quarter over the last decade
Q3 2015: $7.7B
Q3 2025: $12.4B https://t.co/NDlxV7SY6Y
tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
$NKE comments say it all.
China continues to stand out as one of the most powerful long-term opportunities in sport. That has not changed.
For $ONON & $LULU. Not for them.
tweet
$NKE comments say it all.
China continues to stand out as one of the most powerful long-term opportunities in sport. That has not changed.
For $ONON & $LULU. Not for them.
$NKE is a textbook example of why you do not buy downtrends.
The narrative was “the brand will never die.”
Maybe it won’t. That does not mean the stock is a buy.
This stock is "an obvious buy" since more than a year ago. Things only got worse since.
You don’t know the future.
You don’t know if your thesis - which is only speculation, will be right.
You don’t know what can happen next.
So. You. Don't. Buy.
If $NKE is truly a turnaround story, it won’t happen in a day. It will take months, maybe years, to develop. Let the data confirm your thesis. Let price action confirm market appetite.
That's. When. You. Buy.
Until then, your bull case is just an opinion.
And opinions don’t make money. tweet
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EndGame Macro
Inside the NAR Existing Home Sales Report: A Market That’s Paused, Not Recovering
Existing home sales ticked up 0.5% in November, prices are still up year over year, and inventory technically fell month to month. If you stop there, it sounds like housing is stabilizing.
But once you slow down and actually read the report, the story changes. This wasn’t a demand resurgence. It was a thin, rate sensitive bounce layered on top of a market that’s still grinding sideways with weakening momentum.
Total existing home sales are running at about 4.13 million SAAR, which is barely above the post 2022 lows and still far below pre hike norms. In real terms, activity is stuck. November didn’t break the range, it just nudged the top of it.
Prices Aren’t Rising They’re Being Supported
The median existing home price is $409,200, up 1.2% YoY, marking the 29th straight year over year increase. That sounds strong until you look at how it’s happening.
Sales are falling hardest at the low end. Homes under $250k are down sharply YoY, while the $1M+ category is the only segment showing growth. That mix shift alone props up the median. It’s not broad pricing power, its composition.
This is classic late cycle housing behavior where affordability gets crushed, first time buyers step back, and the median price stays elevated because only higher income buyers can transact.
Inventory Is Still Tight, but Cracking in the Wrong Places
Headline inventory fell 5.9% month over month, landing at 1.43 million units, or 4.2 months of supply. NAR frames this as sellers hunkering down.
When inventory stalls because sellers won’t list, not because buyers are clearing homes, it tells you liquidity is freezing. The regional data shows inventory is still building year over year in many areas even as sales struggle to absorb it, especially outside the South.
Who’s Still Buying (And Who Isn’t)
First time buyers are stuck at 30% of sales, unchanged from last year and below where they should be in a healthy cycle. Meanwhile…
• Cash sales are still elevated
• Investor/second home buyers are rising again
•Days on market are creeping higher
That combination says affordability is doing the rationing, not confidence. Demand hasn’t disappeared, but it’s increasingly limited to buyers who don’t need a mortgage or can absorb today’s rates.
Where We Are in the Housing Cycle
This looks exactly like a late lag housing slowdown, not an early recovery.
Rates peaked long ago. Transactions already collapsed. Now prices are holding because supply is artificially constrained and forced selling is still low. That’s normal before labor market stress shows up.
Historically, housing doesn’t break on rate hikes, it breaks when jobs soften and credit tightens at the same time. We’re not fully there yet, but the leading indicators are lining up.
What Comes Next
Here’s the part I’m most confident about…
• Sales stay range bound or drift lower unless mortgage rates fall meaningfully, not just 25–50 bps.
• Price growth continues to slow, with real (inflation adjusted) prices already falling in many regions.
•Downside risk concentrates in the lower and middle tiers, where affordability is most stretched.
•If unemployment rises in 2026, inventory unlocks fast, and price pressure shows up with a lag.
This report doesn’t say housing is strong. It says housing is paused, propped up by lock in effects, skewed buyers, and the absence of forced selling, conditions that rarely last once the broader economy turns.
My View
The November bump isn’t a turn. It’s a reminder that housing is a lagging indicator pretending to be stable.
Momentum is fading beneath the surface, affordability is doing the damage quietly, and the market is increasingly dependent on rates and labor staying cooperative at the same time.
That’s not a crash call but it’s not a recovery either.
tweet
Inside the NAR Existing Home Sales Report: A Market That’s Paused, Not Recovering
Existing home sales ticked up 0.5% in November, prices are still up year over year, and inventory technically fell month to month. If you stop there, it sounds like housing is stabilizing.
But once you slow down and actually read the report, the story changes. This wasn’t a demand resurgence. It was a thin, rate sensitive bounce layered on top of a market that’s still grinding sideways with weakening momentum.
Total existing home sales are running at about 4.13 million SAAR, which is barely above the post 2022 lows and still far below pre hike norms. In real terms, activity is stuck. November didn’t break the range, it just nudged the top of it.
Prices Aren’t Rising They’re Being Supported
The median existing home price is $409,200, up 1.2% YoY, marking the 29th straight year over year increase. That sounds strong until you look at how it’s happening.
Sales are falling hardest at the low end. Homes under $250k are down sharply YoY, while the $1M+ category is the only segment showing growth. That mix shift alone props up the median. It’s not broad pricing power, its composition.
This is classic late cycle housing behavior where affordability gets crushed, first time buyers step back, and the median price stays elevated because only higher income buyers can transact.
Inventory Is Still Tight, but Cracking in the Wrong Places
Headline inventory fell 5.9% month over month, landing at 1.43 million units, or 4.2 months of supply. NAR frames this as sellers hunkering down.
When inventory stalls because sellers won’t list, not because buyers are clearing homes, it tells you liquidity is freezing. The regional data shows inventory is still building year over year in many areas even as sales struggle to absorb it, especially outside the South.
Who’s Still Buying (And Who Isn’t)
First time buyers are stuck at 30% of sales, unchanged from last year and below where they should be in a healthy cycle. Meanwhile…
• Cash sales are still elevated
• Investor/second home buyers are rising again
•Days on market are creeping higher
That combination says affordability is doing the rationing, not confidence. Demand hasn’t disappeared, but it’s increasingly limited to buyers who don’t need a mortgage or can absorb today’s rates.
Where We Are in the Housing Cycle
This looks exactly like a late lag housing slowdown, not an early recovery.
Rates peaked long ago. Transactions already collapsed. Now prices are holding because supply is artificially constrained and forced selling is still low. That’s normal before labor market stress shows up.
Historically, housing doesn’t break on rate hikes, it breaks when jobs soften and credit tightens at the same time. We’re not fully there yet, but the leading indicators are lining up.
What Comes Next
Here’s the part I’m most confident about…
• Sales stay range bound or drift lower unless mortgage rates fall meaningfully, not just 25–50 bps.
• Price growth continues to slow, with real (inflation adjusted) prices already falling in many regions.
•Downside risk concentrates in the lower and middle tiers, where affordability is most stretched.
•If unemployment rises in 2026, inventory unlocks fast, and price pressure shows up with a lag.
This report doesn’t say housing is strong. It says housing is paused, propped up by lock in effects, skewed buyers, and the absence of forced selling, conditions that rarely last once the broader economy turns.
My View
The November bump isn’t a turn. It’s a reminder that housing is a lagging indicator pretending to be stable.
Momentum is fading beneath the surface, affordability is doing the damage quietly, and the market is increasingly dependent on rates and labor staying cooperative at the same time.
That’s not a crash call but it’s not a recovery either.
tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
All my positions have a large potential and a simple & clear thesis.
$NBIS → $220+ before 2027
Execution timelines + stable AI demand growth for a 7–8x F.P/S, even higher depending on execution & AI premium.
$ALAB → $250+ before 2028
Structural demand for AI accelerators and a rapid ramp of Scorpion products resolving the next AI bottleneck.
$BABA → $300+ before 2027
AI revenue acceleration + China macro recovery + easier comps post SunArt & Intime sales + rerating.
$PATH → $40+ before 2027
ARR re-acceleration and multiple expansion due to acceleration and AI optimism.
$TMDX → $250+ before 2028
Path to 10,000 cases ≈ $1.03B revenue hence 25%+ CAGR and a justified 7–10x sales multiple.
All the details, arguments and positions are described here
https://t.co/JqumqSduMh
tweet
All my positions have a large potential and a simple & clear thesis.
$NBIS → $220+ before 2027
Execution timelines + stable AI demand growth for a 7–8x F.P/S, even higher depending on execution & AI premium.
$ALAB → $250+ before 2028
Structural demand for AI accelerators and a rapid ramp of Scorpion products resolving the next AI bottleneck.
$BABA → $300+ before 2027
AI revenue acceleration + China macro recovery + easier comps post SunArt & Intime sales + rerating.
$PATH → $40+ before 2027
ARR re-acceleration and multiple expansion due to acceleration and AI optimism.
$TMDX → $250+ before 2028
Path to 10,000 cases ≈ $1.03B revenue hence 25%+ CAGR and a justified 7–10x sales multiple.
All the details, arguments and positions are described here
https://t.co/JqumqSduMh
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Relief on Inflation, Not on Life
Sentiment ticked up in December. The index moved from 51.0 to 52.9 technically an improvement, but only after months of steady deterioration from the mid 70s earlier in the year. That context matters. When sentiment is this low, small moves up often say more about exhaustion than optimism. People aren’t suddenly feeling good, they’re just feeling slightly less bad.
What really jumps out is how depressed the level still is. At 52.9, sentiment is nowhere near a healthy expansionary range. Historically, readings like this are consistent with periods when households are cautious, defensive, and slow to commit to big purchases.
The split between now and later tells you everything
Dig into the components and the story gets clearer. Current conditions fell again, from 51.1 to 50.4, while expectations rose to 54.6. That’s not confidence, that’s coping.
In plain terms…people don’t like how things feel today, but they’re hoping next year is easier. That pattern shows up late in cycles, when the present is tight but consumers are leaning on the idea that rates will fall, inflation will cool, or policymakers will ride to the rescue. Hope is doing more work than income growth.
Inflation expectations are cooling but prices are still the villain
The chart makes this painfully obvious. One year inflation expectations have fallen from the spring peak above 6% to 4.2%, and five year expectations eased to 3.2%. That’s real progress on expectations.
But here’s the catch…consumers don’t experience inflation as a forecast. They experience it as a price level. The red line in the chart, the share of consumers blaming high prices for poor personal finances stays elevated even as inflation expectations fall. That’s the disconnect policymakers keep running into.
Slower inflation doesn’t feel like relief when groceries, rent, insurance, and utilities are still far above where they were a few years ago. Disinflation helps the future, but it doesn’t repair the damage already done to household balance sheets.
Why this matters for the economy going forward
This is not the psychology of a consumer ready to drive growth. It’s the psychology of a consumer trying to preserve flexibility.
When sentiment is this low and current conditions are weakening, spending becomes selective. Households still spend on necessities, but they delay upgrades, discretionary durables, and anything that feels optional. That lines up with what we’re seeing elsewhere with softer big ticket demand, pressure on lower income households, and more sensitivity to rates and credit availability.
It also means the economy has very little emotional cushion. If the labor market softens or credit tightens further, sentiment doesn’t have far to fall and historically, that’s when pullbacks in spending accelerate.
My View
Inflation expectations are improving, which helps the Fed. But consumer morale remains stuck near cycle lows because prices are still high and incomes haven’t fully caught up. That combination of cooling inflation but persistent frustration is exactly what you see before growth slows further, not before it reaccelerates.
The consumer isn’t panicking, but they’re not confident either. They’re bracing. And economies rarely surprise to the upside when households are stuck in that mindset.
tweet
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Relief on Inflation, Not on Life
Sentiment ticked up in December. The index moved from 51.0 to 52.9 technically an improvement, but only after months of steady deterioration from the mid 70s earlier in the year. That context matters. When sentiment is this low, small moves up often say more about exhaustion than optimism. People aren’t suddenly feeling good, they’re just feeling slightly less bad.
What really jumps out is how depressed the level still is. At 52.9, sentiment is nowhere near a healthy expansionary range. Historically, readings like this are consistent with periods when households are cautious, defensive, and slow to commit to big purchases.
The split between now and later tells you everything
Dig into the components and the story gets clearer. Current conditions fell again, from 51.1 to 50.4, while expectations rose to 54.6. That’s not confidence, that’s coping.
In plain terms…people don’t like how things feel today, but they’re hoping next year is easier. That pattern shows up late in cycles, when the present is tight but consumers are leaning on the idea that rates will fall, inflation will cool, or policymakers will ride to the rescue. Hope is doing more work than income growth.
Inflation expectations are cooling but prices are still the villain
The chart makes this painfully obvious. One year inflation expectations have fallen from the spring peak above 6% to 4.2%, and five year expectations eased to 3.2%. That’s real progress on expectations.
But here’s the catch…consumers don’t experience inflation as a forecast. They experience it as a price level. The red line in the chart, the share of consumers blaming high prices for poor personal finances stays elevated even as inflation expectations fall. That’s the disconnect policymakers keep running into.
Slower inflation doesn’t feel like relief when groceries, rent, insurance, and utilities are still far above where they were a few years ago. Disinflation helps the future, but it doesn’t repair the damage already done to household balance sheets.
Why this matters for the economy going forward
This is not the psychology of a consumer ready to drive growth. It’s the psychology of a consumer trying to preserve flexibility.
When sentiment is this low and current conditions are weakening, spending becomes selective. Households still spend on necessities, but they delay upgrades, discretionary durables, and anything that feels optional. That lines up with what we’re seeing elsewhere with softer big ticket demand, pressure on lower income households, and more sensitivity to rates and credit availability.
It also means the economy has very little emotional cushion. If the labor market softens or credit tightens further, sentiment doesn’t have far to fall and historically, that’s when pullbacks in spending accelerate.
My View
Inflation expectations are improving, which helps the Fed. But consumer morale remains stuck near cycle lows because prices are still high and incomes haven’t fully caught up. That combination of cooling inflation but persistent frustration is exactly what you see before growth slows further, not before it reaccelerates.
The consumer isn’t panicking, but they’re not confident either. They’re bracing. And economies rarely surprise to the upside when households are stuck in that mindset.
tweet