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Fiscal.ai
There are currently 23 software companies globally that spend more than 20% of their revenue on stock-based compensation.
Here they are. https://t.co/dJUc7hqTdU
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There are currently 23 software companies globally that spend more than 20% of their revenue on stock-based compensation.
Here they are. https://t.co/dJUc7hqTdU
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The Few Bets That Matter
The current state of the AI bubble.
$NVDA has a ~$500B backlog for the next 12 months excluding China, with permits being delivered.
$NBIS is turning away customers with next years' compute almost fully booked.
$AVGO is sold out across its capacity through FY26.
$TSM has to expand fab capacity to meet growing demand.
$MU keeps raising guidance as incremental compute demands more memory.
$ALAB is in active discussions with every hyperscaler as accelerator demand to optimize compute explodes - confirmed by $CRDO earnings.
The first supply constraint bubble without stupidly extended multiples and overly bullish sentiment ever.
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The current state of the AI bubble.
$NVDA has a ~$500B backlog for the next 12 months excluding China, with permits being delivered.
$NBIS is turning away customers with next years' compute almost fully booked.
$AVGO is sold out across its capacity through FY26.
$TSM has to expand fab capacity to meet growing demand.
$MU keeps raising guidance as incremental compute demands more memory.
$ALAB is in active discussions with every hyperscaler as accelerator demand to optimize compute explodes - confirmed by $CRDO earnings.
The first supply constraint bubble without stupidly extended multiples and overly bullish sentiment ever.
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The Few Bets That Matter
$MELI is trading at its lowest valuation ever just because the market is taking a breather.
That is factually true.
But there's no need to rush. You only make money when stocks go up.
Money isn't made catching bottoms.
It is made by following uptrends. https://t.co/dMwwOp579Q
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$MELI is trading at its lowest valuation ever just because the market is taking a breather.
That is factually true.
But there's no need to rush. You only make money when stocks go up.
Money isn't made catching bottoms.
It is made by following uptrends. https://t.co/dMwwOp579Q
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Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
Efficiency, not raw scale, is the next leg of the AI trade.
That requires maximizing compute per unit of space & energy. Companies who propose this will yield returns.
This is what $ALAB's business is based on.
This is where $NBIS shines 👇.
https://t.co/1wgtIIMIBC
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Efficiency, not raw scale, is the next leg of the AI trade.
That requires maximizing compute per unit of space & energy. Companies who propose this will yield returns.
This is what $ALAB's business is based on.
This is where $NBIS shines 👇.
https://t.co/1wgtIIMIBC
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Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
OpenAI with another video of poor taste...
Begging the markets not to let the AI trade fade and using the famous Chinese competition to do so...
This isn't what tech is about.
Markets reward execution and cash.
So execute & generate cash.
https://t.co/2ImqKWYyq2
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OpenAI with another video of poor taste...
Begging the markets not to let the AI trade fade and using the famous Chinese competition to do so...
This isn't what tech is about.
Markets reward execution and cash.
So execute & generate cash.
https://t.co/2ImqKWYyq2
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The Few Bets That Matter
$PATH bull case rests on one metric only: net new ARR.
Q3 delivered the first sequential growth.
Q4 guidance points to acceleration.
That’s it.
I break down the thesis and how to capitalize on it in my latest article. Link's in bio. https://t.co/yFT9gOq9Wo
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$PATH bull case rests on one metric only: net new ARR.
Q3 delivered the first sequential growth.
Q4 guidance points to acceleration.
That’s it.
I break down the thesis and how to capitalize on it in my latest article. Link's in bio. https://t.co/yFT9gOq9Wo
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EndGame Macro
This feels like market mechanics doing what they do when liquidity thins out. You get a fast break lower once price slips through obvious intraday levels, stops get tripped, and systematic sellers lean in. That selling feeds on itself for a bit, not because everyone suddenly got bearish, but because that’s how these systems are wired to react.
Then you hit a level where selling pressure runs out, shorts start covering, and the same machines that sold on the way down flip into buy mode as price stabilizes and reclaims key averages. The snapback is a reflex. This is less about fundamentals changing in an hour and more about how a market dominated by algorithms, options hedging, and shallow liquidity can swing hundreds of billions on autopilot before most humans even react.
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This feels like market mechanics doing what they do when liquidity thins out. You get a fast break lower once price slips through obvious intraday levels, stops get tripped, and systematic sellers lean in. That selling feeds on itself for a bit, not because everyone suddenly got bearish, but because that’s how these systems are wired to react.
Then you hit a level where selling pressure runs out, shorts start covering, and the same machines that sold on the way down flip into buy mode as price stabilizes and reclaims key averages. The snapback is a reflex. This is less about fundamentals changing in an hour and more about how a market dominated by algorithms, options hedging, and shallow liquidity can swing hundreds of billions on autopilot before most humans even react.
We are seeing MASSIVE swings in markets right now:
Between 11:55 AM ET and 12:25 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$450 billion in market cap.
23 minutes later and $320 billion in market cap has been added back.
That's a $720 BILLION swing in market cap in under 1 hour.
Capitalize on volatility. tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
$NBIS once again focusing on solving client friction and delivering the best experience, combined with the highest compute quality at the best pricing.
$NBIS introduced two new tools designed to track reserved & available capacity so customers aren't paying for unused compute.
🔹Capacity Blocks - Full visibility into when reserved GPUs start, expansions and how capacity is allocated across projects - eliminating paid-but-unused compute.
🔹Capacity Dashboard & Public API - Real-time visibility into onGPU availability across regions so clients can be alerted directly instead of blin testing compute availability.
On its own, this might seem whatever. But combined with $NBIS other advantages, a constant focus on usage quality makes the difference in a crowded market.
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$NBIS once again focusing on solving client friction and delivering the best experience, combined with the highest compute quality at the best pricing.
$NBIS introduced two new tools designed to track reserved & available capacity so customers aren't paying for unused compute.
🔹Capacity Blocks - Full visibility into when reserved GPUs start, expansions and how capacity is allocated across projects - eliminating paid-but-unused compute.
🔹Capacity Dashboard & Public API - Real-time visibility into onGPU availability across regions so clients can be alerted directly instead of blin testing compute availability.
On its own, this might seem whatever. But combined with $NBIS other advantages, a constant focus on usage quality makes the difference in a crowded market.
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The Few Bets That Matter
$ORCL has ~$110B of debt.
~$25B to be paid over the next three years.
Management expects ~$26B in operating cash flow in FY26 - up +19% YoY, driven by AI cloud ramp.
Yes, FCF will stay negative due to heavy capex. Possibly until FY28.
But project OpCF out 2–3 years, knowing that their FY26 guidance is already enough to cover their next 3Y of repayments.
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$ORCL has ~$110B of debt.
~$25B to be paid over the next three years.
Management expects ~$26B in operating cash flow in FY26 - up +19% YoY, driven by AI cloud ramp.
Yes, FCF will stay negative due to heavy capex. Possibly until FY28.
But project OpCF out 2–3 years, knowing that their FY26 guidance is already enough to cover their next 3Y of repayments.
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The Few Bets That Matter
This is smart. It's not how the tool will be used. But it is smart.
Although we knew Vlad was smart.
$HOOD
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This is smart. It's not how the tool will be used. But it is smart.
Although we knew Vlad was smart.
$HOOD
“Some people have already started to realize that using prediction markets can be cheaper than conventional fire, flood, and hurricane insurance.”
- Vlad, Robinhood https://t.co/mSSDvJqUVs tweet