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EndGame Macro
Warren Buffett’s Subtle Warning About the Endgame of Debt
This is Warren Buffett speaking on May 3, 2025, at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting broadcast on CNBC. His point isn’t about imminent collapse, it’s about incentives and arithmetic. Modern democracies are structurally wired to spend more than they tax, especially when growth slows and voters feel pressure. Promising relief is rewarded; restraint isn’t. Over time, that bias shows up as persistent deficits, rising debt loads, and a growing dependence on easier money to smooth the cycle. That’s the backdrop of today: elevated delinquencies, a massive 2026 refinancing wall, stressed commercial real estate, and government interest costs at their highest levels since the GFC. None of this requires bad actors, it’s the system doing what it’s designed to do when obligations outrun growth.
What makes Buffett’s warning matter is the gap between concern and inevitability. He’s uneasy about long term currency erosion, yet Berkshire’s huge cash and Treasury position tells you he still sees the dollar as the best house in a shaky neighborhood. But the sequence is familiar with stress first, intervention second. As refinancing pressure builds and growth cools, the Fed’s room to maneuver narrows. Rates can stay restrictive only until something breaks, at which point the playbook tends to reappear with liquidity backstops, renewed QE, and eventually some form of financial repression. It’s not a call for panic or an imminent crash; it’s a reminder that currency strength is preserved carefully or diluted gradually, then suddenly, when the math leaves no alternative.
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Warren Buffett’s Subtle Warning About the Endgame of Debt
This is Warren Buffett speaking on May 3, 2025, at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting broadcast on CNBC. His point isn’t about imminent collapse, it’s about incentives and arithmetic. Modern democracies are structurally wired to spend more than they tax, especially when growth slows and voters feel pressure. Promising relief is rewarded; restraint isn’t. Over time, that bias shows up as persistent deficits, rising debt loads, and a growing dependence on easier money to smooth the cycle. That’s the backdrop of today: elevated delinquencies, a massive 2026 refinancing wall, stressed commercial real estate, and government interest costs at their highest levels since the GFC. None of this requires bad actors, it’s the system doing what it’s designed to do when obligations outrun growth.
What makes Buffett’s warning matter is the gap between concern and inevitability. He’s uneasy about long term currency erosion, yet Berkshire’s huge cash and Treasury position tells you he still sees the dollar as the best house in a shaky neighborhood. But the sequence is familiar with stress first, intervention second. As refinancing pressure builds and growth cools, the Fed’s room to maneuver narrows. Rates can stay restrictive only until something breaks, at which point the playbook tends to reappear with liquidity backstops, renewed QE, and eventually some form of financial repression. It’s not a call for panic or an imminent crash; it’s a reminder that currency strength is preserved carefully or diluted gradually, then suddenly, when the math leaves no alternative.
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EndGame Macro
Inflation…disinflation…DEFLATION. https://t.co/TWIURAx3w2
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Inflation…disinflation…DEFLATION. https://t.co/TWIURAx3w2
This is absolutely insane:
Inflation in the US just unexpectedly posted one of the largest monthly declines since 2023.
While a +10 basis point increase in inflation was expected, it actually FELL by -40 basis points.
This puts Core CPI inflation in the US at its lowest level since March 2021.
According to this data, inflation is now at its closest point to the Fed's 2% target since the pandemic.
2026 is going to be a wild year. tweet
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Wasteland Capital
Inflation collapse! CPI 2.7% vs 3.1% exp, Core CPI +2.6% vs. 3.0% exp, LOWEST since early 2021!
Energy the major CPI driver at +4.2%, while healthcare (+3.3%) and housing (+3.0%) still too high.
Tariff impact? Apparel +0.2%, new cars +0.6%. LOL, another Wasteland bullseye 🎯! https://t.co/QqxAGQvsLk
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Inflation collapse! CPI 2.7% vs 3.1% exp, Core CPI +2.6% vs. 3.0% exp, LOWEST since early 2021!
Energy the major CPI driver at +4.2%, while healthcare (+3.3%) and housing (+3.0%) still too high.
Tariff impact? Apparel +0.2%, new cars +0.6%. LOL, another Wasteland bullseye 🎯! https://t.co/QqxAGQvsLk
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Fiscal.ai
Yesterday, Micron reported $13.6 billion in quarterly revenue (+57% y/y).
That's their largest quarter ever... by a mile.
$MU: +14.8% pre-market https://t.co/wttO3c2woN
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Yesterday, Micron reported $13.6 billion in quarterly revenue (+57% y/y).
That's their largest quarter ever... by a mile.
$MU: +14.8% pre-market https://t.co/wttO3c2woN
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EndGame Macro
When Inflation Dies, Deflation Writes the Rules And Why Switzerland Is the Warning Shot
Switzerland isn’t drifting back toward negative rates because growth is strong, it’s doing it because inflation has quietly disappeared and the franc keeps getting too strong. In periods of global stress, capital floods into Switzerland as a safe haven, tightening financial conditions without the SNB ever touching policy rates. That hurts exporters, suppresses prices, and raises the risk of outright deflation. The response isn’t loud QE or panic cuts; it’s more technical and defensive…tiered reserves, penalties on excess cash, and subtle pressure to keep money moving instead of sitting idle. None of this sparks a boom. It simply prevents conditions from tightening further when demand is already weak. Historically, it buys time and keeps the credit system from stalling.
Why the U.S. Eventually Walks the Same Road
The U.S. starts from a different place with inflation first, restraint second but the destination can still converge. As higher rates linger, debt rolls over at worse terms, delinquencies rise, commercial real estate strains, and growth cools. When inflation finally breaks, the policy problem flips. The choice stops being about fighting prices and becomes about preventing a credit contraction from morphing into deflation. That’s when zero rates, QE, or even something that looks like NIRP come back, not because central bankers want them, but because a highly levered, refinancing dependent system can’t absorb tight money indefinitely. Switzerland is the early signal. When safe haven flows, weak demand, and deflation risks dominate, central banks don’t double down on discipline, they ease constraints to keep the plumbing from freezing.
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When Inflation Dies, Deflation Writes the Rules And Why Switzerland Is the Warning Shot
Switzerland isn’t drifting back toward negative rates because growth is strong, it’s doing it because inflation has quietly disappeared and the franc keeps getting too strong. In periods of global stress, capital floods into Switzerland as a safe haven, tightening financial conditions without the SNB ever touching policy rates. That hurts exporters, suppresses prices, and raises the risk of outright deflation. The response isn’t loud QE or panic cuts; it’s more technical and defensive…tiered reserves, penalties on excess cash, and subtle pressure to keep money moving instead of sitting idle. None of this sparks a boom. It simply prevents conditions from tightening further when demand is already weak. Historically, it buys time and keeps the credit system from stalling.
Why the U.S. Eventually Walks the Same Road
The U.S. starts from a different place with inflation first, restraint second but the destination can still converge. As higher rates linger, debt rolls over at worse terms, delinquencies rise, commercial real estate strains, and growth cools. When inflation finally breaks, the policy problem flips. The choice stops being about fighting prices and becomes about preventing a credit contraction from morphing into deflation. That’s when zero rates, QE, or even something that looks like NIRP come back, not because central bankers want them, but because a highly levered, refinancing dependent system can’t absorb tight money indefinitely. Switzerland is the early signal. When safe haven flows, weak demand, and deflation risks dominate, central banks don’t double down on discipline, they ease constraints to keep the plumbing from freezing.
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Cleo Fields just filed new stock trades.
He bought more stock in $IREN.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/wPZkju7LJB
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BREAKING: Representative Cleo Fields just filed new stock trades.
He bought more stock in $IREN.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/wPZkju7LJB
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EndGame Macro
https://t.co/GN58NTv0ht
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https://t.co/GN58NTv0ht
Breaking Inflation News
CPI 2.7% consensus 3.1%
Core 2.6% consensus 3.0%
Wall Street estimates weren't even close. https://t.co/WtfWv3Trxu tweet
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EndGame Macro
Inflation Is Narrowing, Demand Is Softening And The CPI Is Catching Up
When I read the CPI report, I don’t stop at 2.7% year over year. I try to figure out where inflation still has oxygen and where it’s clearly running out. One footnote matters…October CPI wasn’t collected because of the funding lapse, so we’re leaning on a two month Sept to Nov move with some gaps in the usual monthly detail. Even with that caveat, the signal is clear that headline CPI is 2.7% YoY, core is 2.6% YoY, and the pattern is familiar…cooling into spring, a mid year reacceleration, and now a renewed slowdown.
The Sticky Part Is Mostly Shelter And It’s Lagging Reality
Shelter is still doing a lot of heavy lifting at 3.0% YoY, and OER 3.4% YoY with an outsized contribution to the total. But here’s the key context people miss…private sector rent data is cooling much faster than CPI shelter. Zillow’s observed rent growth for apartments is around 1.1% YoY, and their multifamily outlook is negative in 2026 (-0.3%). That’s not a contradiction, it’s how the data is built. CPI shelter is slow because it reflects existing leases that reset over time. Private data captures today’s asking rents. So CPI is still showing shelter inflation because it’s looking in the rearview mirror, even as the real time housing market is already easing.
Where The Weakness Is Showing Up
The soft spots aren’t subtle. Travel linked categories normally resilient when demand is strong are outright negative year over year…lodging away from home (-4.1%), airline fares (-5.4%), public transportation (-4.0%). That’s what fading pricing power looks like. And goods are still a competitive battlefield…information technology commodities (-3.3%) and smartphones (-9.4%) are basically telling you nobody gets to raise prices there.
Meanwhile, the inflation that is hanging around looks more like cost structure than overheating demand. Energy services are up 7.4% YoY, with electricity 6.9% YoY, even though energy commodities are much tamer (1.2% YoY). That’s less consumers are splurging and more the fixed bills are still heavy.
My Read
This isn’t an economy reaccelerating. It’s an economy cooling in an uneven way…sticky, lagging shelter and non optional bills on one side, weakening discretionary pricing power on the other. If you sanity check it against real time signals, it lines up, WTI hanging in the mid $50s and trending down over the year doesn’t scream demand resurgence. The bigger implication is timing with the CPI still being propped up by backward looking shelter, while the forward looking parts of the economy are already acting softer. That’s how you end up with policy staying tight even after the underlying demand has rolled over.
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Inflation Is Narrowing, Demand Is Softening And The CPI Is Catching Up
When I read the CPI report, I don’t stop at 2.7% year over year. I try to figure out where inflation still has oxygen and where it’s clearly running out. One footnote matters…October CPI wasn’t collected because of the funding lapse, so we’re leaning on a two month Sept to Nov move with some gaps in the usual monthly detail. Even with that caveat, the signal is clear that headline CPI is 2.7% YoY, core is 2.6% YoY, and the pattern is familiar…cooling into spring, a mid year reacceleration, and now a renewed slowdown.
The Sticky Part Is Mostly Shelter And It’s Lagging Reality
Shelter is still doing a lot of heavy lifting at 3.0% YoY, and OER 3.4% YoY with an outsized contribution to the total. But here’s the key context people miss…private sector rent data is cooling much faster than CPI shelter. Zillow’s observed rent growth for apartments is around 1.1% YoY, and their multifamily outlook is negative in 2026 (-0.3%). That’s not a contradiction, it’s how the data is built. CPI shelter is slow because it reflects existing leases that reset over time. Private data captures today’s asking rents. So CPI is still showing shelter inflation because it’s looking in the rearview mirror, even as the real time housing market is already easing.
Where The Weakness Is Showing Up
The soft spots aren’t subtle. Travel linked categories normally resilient when demand is strong are outright negative year over year…lodging away from home (-4.1%), airline fares (-5.4%), public transportation (-4.0%). That’s what fading pricing power looks like. And goods are still a competitive battlefield…information technology commodities (-3.3%) and smartphones (-9.4%) are basically telling you nobody gets to raise prices there.
Meanwhile, the inflation that is hanging around looks more like cost structure than overheating demand. Energy services are up 7.4% YoY, with electricity 6.9% YoY, even though energy commodities are much tamer (1.2% YoY). That’s less consumers are splurging and more the fixed bills are still heavy.
My Read
This isn’t an economy reaccelerating. It’s an economy cooling in an uneven way…sticky, lagging shelter and non optional bills on one side, weakening discretionary pricing power on the other. If you sanity check it against real time signals, it lines up, WTI hanging in the mid $50s and trending down over the year doesn’t scream demand resurgence. The bigger implication is timing with the CPI still being propped up by backward looking shelter, while the forward looking parts of the economy are already acting softer. That’s how you end up with policy staying tight even after the underlying demand has rolled over.
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