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Clark Square Capital
RT @joinyellowbrick: $VRA was pitched by @ClarkSquareCap and @AstutexAi recently https://t.co/5ldrXQN1ib
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RT @joinyellowbrick: $VRA was pitched by @ClarkSquareCap and @AstutexAi recently https://t.co/5ldrXQN1ib
Alright, Vera Bradley $VRA has my attention. A couple of directors bought over 1% of the company in the open market https://t.co/9My7lWQFqp tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
What This Housing Map Says About Where We Are
The October 2025 housing map has national prices up just 1.1% year over year, with clear pockets of decline across the West, parts of Texas, and Florida and it looks a lot like where housing sat right before the GFC showed up in the national data.
In late 2006 and early 2007, home prices were still barely positive at the national level. On paper, housing looked fine. But underneath, the hottest markets like California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida had already turned. The national average didn’t break until later, but the leaders were already rolling over. That’s exactly what this map is showing now with localized cooling in the same types of regions that tend to lead housing cycles.
Housing almost never breaks all at once. It cracks region by region, then slowly becomes a national story.
How housing and labor lined up last time
What made 2006–2007 so deceptive was the labor market. Unemployment was low and stable, hovering around 4.4–4.6%, just like today. There was no panic. But subtle changes were already underway where job growth slowed, hours softened, and confidence quietly eroded.
By mid to late 2007, unemployment started drifting higher, crossing 5% by year end. Once it began accelerating, it didn’t stop until it reached 10% in 2009. The sequence mattered because housing weakened first, labor followed with a lag. And once unemployment rose meaningfully, housing shifted from softening to forced selling, which ultimately drove prices down until the national bottom in 2011–2012.
Where we are now and why this already looks late
Today rhymes with that period, even if it isn’t identical.
We already have…
• Low but rising unemployment (now 4.6%, up from the low 4s earlier this year)
• Housing prices barely positive nationally
• Clear regional leaders cooling first
• The Fed already cutting rates three times in 2025
That last point matters. In 2007, the Fed waited much longer to ease. This time, it’s already cutting, not as a precaution, but as a response to stress that’s already visible. Layer in a $9–10T government refinancing wall, $1.5–1.8T of CRE maturities, rising delinquencies across consumers, and job cuts north of 1.17 million, and it’s hard to frame this as anything but a late cycle environment that’s already in motion.
Mortgage underwriting is cleaner than the subprime era, which lowers the odds of an immediate foreclosure cascade. But that doesn’t make housing safe. It just means the adjustment is likely to be slower, more uneven, and heavily dependent on what happens to jobs.
My Read
Housing looks stuck, not strong. Prices are holding up just enough to keep the national number positive, but momentum is gone. If the labor market holds together, this can resolve the boring way with flat prices while inflation slowly does the work.
But if unemployment continues rising the way it did in 2007, even gradually, the standoff breaks. Housing doesn’t fall because prices feel high. It falls when people have to sell.
Right now, we’re in the same chapter as late 2006…the warning phase. Not the collapse. But the part where leaders have already turned, policy is reacting, and the outcome hinges almost entirely on whether labor follows housing down the path it’s already started.
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What This Housing Map Says About Where We Are
The October 2025 housing map has national prices up just 1.1% year over year, with clear pockets of decline across the West, parts of Texas, and Florida and it looks a lot like where housing sat right before the GFC showed up in the national data.
In late 2006 and early 2007, home prices were still barely positive at the national level. On paper, housing looked fine. But underneath, the hottest markets like California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida had already turned. The national average didn’t break until later, but the leaders were already rolling over. That’s exactly what this map is showing now with localized cooling in the same types of regions that tend to lead housing cycles.
Housing almost never breaks all at once. It cracks region by region, then slowly becomes a national story.
How housing and labor lined up last time
What made 2006–2007 so deceptive was the labor market. Unemployment was low and stable, hovering around 4.4–4.6%, just like today. There was no panic. But subtle changes were already underway where job growth slowed, hours softened, and confidence quietly eroded.
By mid to late 2007, unemployment started drifting higher, crossing 5% by year end. Once it began accelerating, it didn’t stop until it reached 10% in 2009. The sequence mattered because housing weakened first, labor followed with a lag. And once unemployment rose meaningfully, housing shifted from softening to forced selling, which ultimately drove prices down until the national bottom in 2011–2012.
Where we are now and why this already looks late
Today rhymes with that period, even if it isn’t identical.
We already have…
• Low but rising unemployment (now 4.6%, up from the low 4s earlier this year)
• Housing prices barely positive nationally
• Clear regional leaders cooling first
• The Fed already cutting rates three times in 2025
That last point matters. In 2007, the Fed waited much longer to ease. This time, it’s already cutting, not as a precaution, but as a response to stress that’s already visible. Layer in a $9–10T government refinancing wall, $1.5–1.8T of CRE maturities, rising delinquencies across consumers, and job cuts north of 1.17 million, and it’s hard to frame this as anything but a late cycle environment that’s already in motion.
Mortgage underwriting is cleaner than the subprime era, which lowers the odds of an immediate foreclosure cascade. But that doesn’t make housing safe. It just means the adjustment is likely to be slower, more uneven, and heavily dependent on what happens to jobs.
My Read
Housing looks stuck, not strong. Prices are holding up just enough to keep the national number positive, but momentum is gone. If the labor market holds together, this can resolve the boring way with flat prices while inflation slowly does the work.
But if unemployment continues rising the way it did in 2007, even gradually, the standoff breaks. Housing doesn’t fall because prices feel high. It falls when people have to sell.
Right now, we’re in the same chapter as late 2006…the warning phase. Not the collapse. But the part where leaders have already turned, policy is reacting, and the outcome hinges almost entirely on whether labor follows housing down the path it’s already started.
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Snap has 477 million Daily Active Users.
In October, Snap began charging users for extra storage beyond 5GB.
Plans start at $1.99/mo.
Will this help Snap finally become profitable?
$SNAP https://t.co/Mtr8NnQy52
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Snap has 477 million Daily Active Users.
In October, Snap began charging users for extra storage beyond 5GB.
Plans start at $1.99/mo.
Will this help Snap finally become profitable?
$SNAP https://t.co/Mtr8NnQy52
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Young workers are the most marginal hires, so when employers get cautious, they’re the first to feel it through fewer hours, fewer shifts, and fewer entry level openings. This isn’t a one off spike like COVID, it’s a steady climb, which usually shows up when businesses are quietly pulling back before they announce layoffs. The broader risk isn’t just economic, it’s social. High youth unemployment tends to drag on household formation, delay consumption, increase reliance on family support or debt, and over time it feeds frustration and disengagement. Historically, when youth unemployment rises meaningfully, the headline labor market almost always follows with a lag. This chart confirms we’re already late cycle where firms are managing risk by freezing the pipeline of new workers.
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Young workers are the most marginal hires, so when employers get cautious, they’re the first to feel it through fewer hours, fewer shifts, and fewer entry level openings. This isn’t a one off spike like COVID, it’s a steady climb, which usually shows up when businesses are quietly pulling back before they announce layoffs. The broader risk isn’t just economic, it’s social. High youth unemployment tends to drag on household formation, delay consumption, increase reliance on family support or debt, and over time it feeds frustration and disengagement. Historically, when youth unemployment rises meaningfully, the headline labor market almost always follows with a lag. This chart confirms we’re already late cycle where firms are managing risk by freezing the pipeline of new workers.
Youth Unemployment Rate highest since August 2020
#MacroEdge https://t.co/qG0YvS0KVP tweet
AkhenOsiris
$HOOD $COIN
Mizuho maintained its Outperform rating and $172 price target on Robinhood shares, citing strong growth in the company’s prediction markets segment.
Robinhood is on track for a $300 million run-rate for prediction markets in the fourth quarter, with 2.5 billion in October contracts, prompting Mizuho to raise its 2026-2027 revenue estimates by 6-7%.
According to Mizuho’s survey data, Robinhood users are more inclined to fund prediction markets portfolios with fresh money compared to Coinbase users, with approximately 50% of Robinhood users using new funds versus about 37% for Coinbase.
This funding advantage is partially offset by an expected lower allocation to prediction markets in Robinhood users’ portfolios compared to Coinbase users, with projections showing about 13% allocation for Robinhood versus 15% for Coinbase users approximately one year from now.
Mizuho expects Robinhood to see a larger percentage revenue benefit from prediction markets compared to Coinbase, based on the combination of these user behavior patterns.
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$HOOD $COIN
Mizuho maintained its Outperform rating and $172 price target on Robinhood shares, citing strong growth in the company’s prediction markets segment.
Robinhood is on track for a $300 million run-rate for prediction markets in the fourth quarter, with 2.5 billion in October contracts, prompting Mizuho to raise its 2026-2027 revenue estimates by 6-7%.
According to Mizuho’s survey data, Robinhood users are more inclined to fund prediction markets portfolios with fresh money compared to Coinbase users, with approximately 50% of Robinhood users using new funds versus about 37% for Coinbase.
This funding advantage is partially offset by an expected lower allocation to prediction markets in Robinhood users’ portfolios compared to Coinbase users, with projections showing about 13% allocation for Robinhood versus 15% for Coinbase users approximately one year from now.
Mizuho expects Robinhood to see a larger percentage revenue benefit from prediction markets compared to Coinbase, based on the combination of these user behavior patterns.
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AkhenOsiris
$FLUT $DKNG
Citizens:
DraftKings (Outperform, $44 PT) and FanDuel (Outperform, $311 PT) are set to launch their respective prediction market platforms in the near term. A source indicated to us both platforms were set to launch last Friday, but third-party dependencies delayed the launch. As we examine the value chain for both companies, neither has exposure to "illegal" entities in the eyes of Arizona, with CME Group not providing sports contracts in states with legal sports betting. We believe both of these companies took the "cleanest" way possible to avoid friction with states and, on the surface, should not be impacted by the decision out of Arizona. We would even argue DraftKings' acquisition of Railbird solves this issue by providing flexibility in a sense whereby it can tailor its offering around fluid changes in regulations over time."
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$FLUT $DKNG
Citizens:
DraftKings (Outperform, $44 PT) and FanDuel (Outperform, $311 PT) are set to launch their respective prediction market platforms in the near term. A source indicated to us both platforms were set to launch last Friday, but third-party dependencies delayed the launch. As we examine the value chain for both companies, neither has exposure to "illegal" entities in the eyes of Arizona, with CME Group not providing sports contracts in states with legal sports betting. We believe both of these companies took the "cleanest" way possible to avoid friction with states and, on the surface, should not be impacted by the decision out of Arizona. We would even argue DraftKings' acquisition of Railbird solves this issue by providing flexibility in a sense whereby it can tailor its offering around fluid changes in regulations over time."
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN
AWS CEO Garman:
I will tell you, at re:Invent I sat in a room of executives for a broad set of companies, and I asked for a show of hands of who is either now starting to see positive ROI on their AI investments or see a clear path to meaningful positive ROI in the next six months. I think 90 percent of the hands went up.
That's not the answer I would've gotten a year ago, but it's because we've done a bunch of this work, and it's because we've done a bunch of this work together with customers to understand exactly what they want, how do we solve their problems, and how do we deliver solutions that deliver them real value and not just, you know, clickbait headlines that sound good.
Jeff Bezos used to have a saying that you have to be willing to be misunderstood for long periods of time. For us, I think that's what some of the last two years entailed.
I think a lot of that narrative has changed now. If you talk to lots of analysts, if you talk to folks in the press, if I talk to customers they're saying, “Look, actually AWS has by far the strongest agentic platform to go build on. They have the broadest set of models that I can build on. They have the broadest set of security controls and compliance controls that actually, if I go put these agents in production, I can actually audit, know what they're doing, control what they're doing.” That is what we're seeing.
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$AMZN
AWS CEO Garman:
I will tell you, at re:Invent I sat in a room of executives for a broad set of companies, and I asked for a show of hands of who is either now starting to see positive ROI on their AI investments or see a clear path to meaningful positive ROI in the next six months. I think 90 percent of the hands went up.
That's not the answer I would've gotten a year ago, but it's because we've done a bunch of this work, and it's because we've done a bunch of this work together with customers to understand exactly what they want, how do we solve their problems, and how do we deliver solutions that deliver them real value and not just, you know, clickbait headlines that sound good.
Jeff Bezos used to have a saying that you have to be willing to be misunderstood for long periods of time. For us, I think that's what some of the last two years entailed.
I think a lot of that narrative has changed now. If you talk to lots of analysts, if you talk to folks in the press, if I talk to customers they're saying, “Look, actually AWS has by far the strongest agentic platform to go build on. They have the broadest set of models that I can build on. They have the broadest set of security controls and compliance controls that actually, if I go put these agents in production, I can actually audit, know what they're doing, control what they're doing.” That is what we're seeing.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
In April 2023, during a two part interview with Tucker Carlson on Fox News (right after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and amid the early 2023 regional banking crisis), Elon Musk warned about the risks of the Federal Reserve continuing to hike interest rates into a weakening economy.
He pointed to historical precedent that the last time the Fed raised rates during an economic slowdown was in 1929, which contributed to the stock market crash and the Great Depression. Musk highlighted the Fed's data lag (decisions based on outdated info) as a major risk for over tightening, potentially amplifying banking stresses and tipping the economy into a severe downturn or even depression like conditions. He stressed there was no magic cure for inflation beyond boosting productivity, but cautioned strongly against further hikes at that moment.
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In April 2023, during a two part interview with Tucker Carlson on Fox News (right after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and amid the early 2023 regional banking crisis), Elon Musk warned about the risks of the Federal Reserve continuing to hike interest rates into a weakening economy.
He pointed to historical precedent that the last time the Fed raised rates during an economic slowdown was in 1929, which contributed to the stock market crash and the Great Depression. Musk highlighted the Fed's data lag (decisions based on outdated info) as a major risk for over tightening, potentially amplifying banking stresses and tipping the economy into a severe downturn or even depression like conditions. He stressed there was no magic cure for inflation beyond boosting productivity, but cautioned strongly against further hikes at that moment.
Elon Musk tells Tucker Carlson that the last time the federal reserve raised rates, it caused the great depression. https://t.co/xINlnvajOf tweet
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EndGame Macro
The Unemployment Signal That Rarely Lies
This chart is basically a reality check on where we are in the labor cycle. The blue line isn’t the unemployment rate itself, it’s the change in unemployment compared with 30 months ago. When it’s below zero, unemployment is lower than it was 2½ years earlier, which is what expansions look like. When it moves above zero, unemployment is higher than it was back then, a sign the labor market has shifted from tightening to loosening. The gray bars mark official recessions.
That’s why this line tends to cluster around downturns. Recessions aren’t about one bad month, they’re about unemployment rising and continuing to rise. A 30 month comparison strips out month to month noise and captures those sustained turns. When this measure flips positive, it’s usually telling you the labor regime has changed, even if the surface level data still looks calm.
Where we are on the chart right now
As of November 2025, unemployment is 4.6%, and the 30 month change is roughly +1 percentage point. This marks a clear shift away from expansion. Expansion is about momentum improving; this tells you that momentum has turned. The labor market is no longer tightening, it’s easing enough that a multi year comparison can’t hide it, even if the fallout hasn’t fully arrived yet.
Now layer in the broader backdrop. The Fed has already cut rates three times to 3.50–3.75%. A large refinancing wall is approaching, with roughly $9–10T in government debt and $1.5–1.8T in commercial real estate maturing. Delinquencies are elevated across autos, credit cards, and student loans. Office vacancy remains near record highs. Bankruptcies and job cuts are rising. Initial claims are drifting higher.
This doesn’t describe an economy entering a new expansion; it describes one running out of room.
My Read
I put the odds of a recession at about 70%, if we’re not already in one. That reflects a labor market that’s shifted from tightening to loosening while credit stress is already visible. The path out is narrow because jobs must stabilize fast, rate cuts need to ease refinancing pressure, and credit stress can’t keep spreading. Historically, that’s hard to pull off once labor softens and financial strain is visible.
tweet
The Unemployment Signal That Rarely Lies
This chart is basically a reality check on where we are in the labor cycle. The blue line isn’t the unemployment rate itself, it’s the change in unemployment compared with 30 months ago. When it’s below zero, unemployment is lower than it was 2½ years earlier, which is what expansions look like. When it moves above zero, unemployment is higher than it was back then, a sign the labor market has shifted from tightening to loosening. The gray bars mark official recessions.
That’s why this line tends to cluster around downturns. Recessions aren’t about one bad month, they’re about unemployment rising and continuing to rise. A 30 month comparison strips out month to month noise and captures those sustained turns. When this measure flips positive, it’s usually telling you the labor regime has changed, even if the surface level data still looks calm.
Where we are on the chart right now
As of November 2025, unemployment is 4.6%, and the 30 month change is roughly +1 percentage point. This marks a clear shift away from expansion. Expansion is about momentum improving; this tells you that momentum has turned. The labor market is no longer tightening, it’s easing enough that a multi year comparison can’t hide it, even if the fallout hasn’t fully arrived yet.
Now layer in the broader backdrop. The Fed has already cut rates three times to 3.50–3.75%. A large refinancing wall is approaching, with roughly $9–10T in government debt and $1.5–1.8T in commercial real estate maturing. Delinquencies are elevated across autos, credit cards, and student loans. Office vacancy remains near record highs. Bankruptcies and job cuts are rising. Initial claims are drifting higher.
This doesn’t describe an economy entering a new expansion; it describes one running out of room.
My Read
I put the odds of a recession at about 70%, if we’re not already in one. That reflects a labor market that’s shifted from tightening to loosening while credit stress is already visible. The path out is narrow because jobs must stabilize fast, rate cuts need to ease refinancing pressure, and credit stress can’t keep spreading. Historically, that’s hard to pull off once labor softens and financial strain is visible.
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Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
Beth is one of the most interesting and grounded AI analysts you can follow and listen to in the markets.
Been constantly right for years and very interesting, calm at explaining the markets' shenanigan and the rational behind AI dynamics.
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Beth is one of the most interesting and grounded AI analysts you can follow and listen to in the markets.
Been constantly right for years and very interesting, calm at explaining the markets' shenanigan and the rational behind AI dynamics.
There will be a moment when companies are able to monetize AI to where capex costs are absorbed. In terms of the ability to monetize AI, this is being proven as we speak with OpenAI exhibiting the fastest run rate from $0 to $20 billion in all of tech’s history.
I joined @technology to discuss how the incoming AI monetization wave can help absorb elevated capex costs, and how the AI accelerator market will widen beyond Nvidia $NVDA and benefit other firms such as Broadcom $AVGO. tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @TheShortBear: In terms of how I think about $MELI.
Cheapest multiples since 2008.
There are only 2 instances in the past 20y that exceeded a -40% pullback, 2021 (ultra high multiples) and 2008(global financial crisis and newer less establishes business at the time).
We are 12% from testing that level.
A bit of risk for a multi 100% potential.
That is an easy framework to think about risk.
Second layer is finer busienss metrics, space macro, beta-led pressure...
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RT @TheShortBear: In terms of how I think about $MELI.
Cheapest multiples since 2008.
There are only 2 instances in the past 20y that exceeded a -40% pullback, 2021 (ultra high multiples) and 2008(global financial crisis and newer less establishes business at the time).
We are 12% from testing that level.
A bit of risk for a multi 100% potential.
That is an easy framework to think about risk.
Second layer is finer busienss metrics, space macro, beta-led pressure...
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App Economy Insights
Warner plans to tell shareholders to reject Paramount’s hostile takeover bid (and recommend the Netflix deal).
Perhaps more fascinating is that prediction markets still gave Paramount a 50% chance of closing the acquisition this morning (now 22%).
What are people smoking? https://t.co/QiUu56lJpk
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Warner plans to tell shareholders to reject Paramount’s hostile takeover bid (and recommend the Netflix deal).
Perhaps more fascinating is that prediction markets still gave Paramount a 50% chance of closing the acquisition this morning (now 22%).
What are people smoking? https://t.co/QiUu56lJpk
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Wasteland Capital
Wild that a $3.6bn closed end Real Estate fund $BPRE can immediately crash -40% vs NAV on becoming publicly listed.
Hard assets? More like a meme-coin valuation mirage, sold to the dumb and naive by unscrupulous advisers…
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Wild that a $3.6bn closed end Real Estate fund $BPRE can immediately crash -40% vs NAV on becoming publicly listed.
Hard assets? More like a meme-coin valuation mirage, sold to the dumb and naive by unscrupulous advisers…
Worst fears confirmed for BlueRock investors. 😱
BPRE opens at ~$15 vs. $24+ NAV. -38% discount.
Instant ~$1.5B wealth destruction. No more 5% quarterly liquidity at NAV.
Bluerock management chose to entrench themselves in a closed-end fund conversion.
Shareholders approved, not realizing the disaster that awaited them. From $24 to $15 in the blink of a greedy eye. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
boaz weinstein (@boazweinstein) on X
Worst fears confirmed for BlueRock investors. 😱
BPRE opens at ~$15 vs. $24+ NAV. -38% discount.
Instant ~$1.5B wealth destruction. No more 5% quarterly liquidity at NAV.
Bluerock management chose to entrench themselves in a closed-end fund conversion.…
BPRE opens at ~$15 vs. $24+ NAV. -38% discount.
Instant ~$1.5B wealth destruction. No more 5% quarterly liquidity at NAV.
Bluerock management chose to entrench themselves in a closed-end fund conversion.…