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memenodes
This his last tweet btw https://t.co/LyOpzn5NwM
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This his last tweet btw https://t.co/LyOpzn5NwM
Been coughing all morning today lol tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
This Is What a Demand Slowdown Looks Like Before It’s Obvious
When I step back and look at all of this together, it doesn’t feel like an inflation problem anymore. It feels like a demand problem that just hasn’t fully shown itself yet. Oil hanging in the high 50s is usually what you see when the marginal buyer disappears. People travel a little less, companies slow orders, freight eases, and suddenly pricing power gets thinner. The oil volatility staying calm at the same time matters too. This isn’t fear or a supply shock. It’s more like a quiet acceptance that growth is cooling and nobody needs to hedge chaos.
Now layer in rates. The front end is doing what the Fed tells it to do, but the middle of the curve is where expectations live, and that part looks like it’s leaning toward more slowing ahead. If inflation were truly about to reignite, the whole curve would be fighting that idea. Instead, it’s saying the pressure is on growth, not prices. And when you combine that with rising delinquencies, shaky commercial real estate, and layoffs creeping higher, it starts to look familiar. This is how cycles usually turn…not with a bang, but with a long stretch where things feel fine right up until unemployment becomes the headline.
If we were to assume unemployment keeps moving up and the inflation story is mostly psychology around tariffs rather than real demand driven pressure, then the message here is pretty clear to me. The economy is losing momentum faster than people want to admit. Disinflation is doing its job, but it’s also setting the stage for something colder. The risk is that once the labor market weakens enough, demand drops out all at once and the narrative has to catch up after the fact. That’s usually when everyone realizes the cycle already turned.
tweet
This Is What a Demand Slowdown Looks Like Before It’s Obvious
When I step back and look at all of this together, it doesn’t feel like an inflation problem anymore. It feels like a demand problem that just hasn’t fully shown itself yet. Oil hanging in the high 50s is usually what you see when the marginal buyer disappears. People travel a little less, companies slow orders, freight eases, and suddenly pricing power gets thinner. The oil volatility staying calm at the same time matters too. This isn’t fear or a supply shock. It’s more like a quiet acceptance that growth is cooling and nobody needs to hedge chaos.
Now layer in rates. The front end is doing what the Fed tells it to do, but the middle of the curve is where expectations live, and that part looks like it’s leaning toward more slowing ahead. If inflation were truly about to reignite, the whole curve would be fighting that idea. Instead, it’s saying the pressure is on growth, not prices. And when you combine that with rising delinquencies, shaky commercial real estate, and layoffs creeping higher, it starts to look familiar. This is how cycles usually turn…not with a bang, but with a long stretch where things feel fine right up until unemployment becomes the headline.
If we were to assume unemployment keeps moving up and the inflation story is mostly psychology around tariffs rather than real demand driven pressure, then the message here is pretty clear to me. The economy is losing momentum faster than people want to admit. Disinflation is doing its job, but it’s also setting the stage for something colder. The risk is that once the labor market weakens enough, demand drops out all at once and the narrative has to catch up after the fact. That’s usually when everyone realizes the cycle already turned.
Oil volatility in two time frames looks like it’s heavy. He wants to go lower and I don’t see how oil stays elevated so I don’t see how the two your note doesn’t go back below 3% which will force the fence to cut every meeting because if they don’t until your note fall until it rises and it sucks the volatility out of the much much much much much much smaller bond volatility, market, and that causes mortgage rates to meltdown and that helps Main Street and that’s exactly what the Fed is trying to stop. They wanna make sure Main Street is miserable with higher prices higher energy, higher inflation expectations through November of next year and the Fed is not gonna succeed because the system is designed to react to the inputs and the administration introduced tariffs which caused lunatics and
TDS trump dearrangement syndrome. People to think it means higher inflation when of course, it means lower inflation. tweet
Offshore
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memenodes
When you realize that John Cena also retired from WWE, but you're still out there trying to survive and losing money in crypto every day https://t.co/ybDcvRuxBy
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When you realize that John Cena also retired from WWE, but you're still out there trying to survive and losing money in crypto every day https://t.co/ybDcvRuxBy
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Leverage Makes the Climb Look Easy Until It Doesn’t
What jumps out here isn’t just that stocks are high. It’s how they’re high. Market value and margin debt have been rising together, almost in lockstep. That tells you a meaningful chunk of this move isn’t just fresh savings or long term capital rotating in. It’s borrowed money leaning into the trade. That always feels fine when prices are rising because leverage is invisible on the way up. It only shows itself when something forces people to step back.
Why That Matters Right Now
Context is everything. Unemployment is quietly moving higher and inflation is fading more because demand is cooling than because policy won, then the economy underneath this market is getting softer, not stronger. In that environment, debt gets heavier to carry in real terms. That’s the part people tend to miss. Leverage works best when growth is accelerating and cash flows are expanding. It works worst when the economy slows and confidence thins out.
My View
The shaded bear market bands on this chart are the reminder of how this usually resolves. Margin debt doesn’t unwind gently. It unwinds because it has to. When prices stall or slip, lenders tighten, calls get made, and selling becomes mechanical instead of thoughtful. You don’t need a dramatic shock for that to start, just a market that stops rewarding risk the way it has been. My strongest takeaway is that this rally is being held together by confidence plus leverage at a moment when the macro backdrop is quietly deteriorating. That doesn’t mean an immediate collapse. It means the margin for error is thin, and when confidence finally wobbles, it tends to wobble all at once.
tweet
Leverage Makes the Climb Look Easy Until It Doesn’t
What jumps out here isn’t just that stocks are high. It’s how they’re high. Market value and margin debt have been rising together, almost in lockstep. That tells you a meaningful chunk of this move isn’t just fresh savings or long term capital rotating in. It’s borrowed money leaning into the trade. That always feels fine when prices are rising because leverage is invisible on the way up. It only shows itself when something forces people to step back.
Why That Matters Right Now
Context is everything. Unemployment is quietly moving higher and inflation is fading more because demand is cooling than because policy won, then the economy underneath this market is getting softer, not stronger. In that environment, debt gets heavier to carry in real terms. That’s the part people tend to miss. Leverage works best when growth is accelerating and cash flows are expanding. It works worst when the economy slows and confidence thins out.
My View
The shaded bear market bands on this chart are the reminder of how this usually resolves. Margin debt doesn’t unwind gently. It unwinds because it has to. When prices stall or slip, lenders tighten, calls get made, and selling becomes mechanical instead of thoughtful. You don’t need a dramatic shock for that to start, just a market that stops rewarding risk the way it has been. My strongest takeaway is that this rally is being held together by confidence plus leverage at a moment when the macro backdrop is quietly deteriorating. That doesn’t mean an immediate collapse. It means the margin for error is thin, and when confidence finally wobbles, it tends to wobble all at once.
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memenodes
John Cena has tapped out and lost his final WWE match ever.
It's over đź’” https://t.co/8uvPQwWq7T
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John Cena has tapped out and lost his final WWE match ever.
It's over đź’” https://t.co/8uvPQwWq7T
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Offshore
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memenodes
Bro predicted this long ago https://t.co/8mpArm5RDq
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Bro predicted this long ago https://t.co/8mpArm5RDq
If john cena retires the wwe universe will die tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
When Capital Meets Resistance And The Hidden Slowdown Behind AI’s Buildout
These cancellations don’t show up as one off failures. They build month by month. A few delays in early summer turn into a steady pickup by fall, and by year end it’s clearly accelerating. That’s usually the moment when something stops being project specific and starts becoming structural. Developers don’t pull back in clusters unless the friction they’re facing is persistent and spreading.
What’s important is that this isn’t isolated to one region or one political climate. Projects are being blocked or delayed across the country because of power availability, water strain, zoning fights, noise concerns, shifting tax incentives, and timelines that stretch just long enough to break the financing math. Roughly $64 billion in planned investment has now been stalled or stopped over the last two years because the path from capital to concrete is no longer smooth. Capital is willing. Execution is not.
Why This Is Showing Up Now
When growth feels abundant and money is cheap, communities tolerate disruption and developers get the benefit of the doubt. When households are stretched, utilities are constrained, and financing costs stay elevated, that tolerance disappears fast. Local opposition becomes a quiet but powerful brake. It doesn’t show up in rate cuts or GDP prints, but it slows the economy just as effectively.
What makes this moment stand out is the timing. This resistance is showing up right as the top down narrative around AI infrastructure is peaking. That mismatch of massive enthusiasm at the capital allocation level colliding with real world limits on the ground is usually a warning sign. Permitting delays, lawsuits, and zoning battles become a hidden form of tightening. Growth doesn’t stop. It just takes longer, costs more, and fails more often.
My View
In my opinion this isn’t an AI bust story. It’s a constraint and confidence story. The economy is shifting from expansion to resistance. Even sectors with strong long term demand are now running into hard limits in grid capacity, water systems, local politics, labor availability, and financing math that no longer forgives delays. That’s what late cycle friction looks like.
Nothing here suggests an immediate collapse. But it does say the easy phase of growth is over. Capital can still move, but it has to fight harder at every step. And once projects start dying at the local level, that process rarely reverses quickly. Growth becomes slower, more contested, and far less forgiving long before the headlines catch up.
tweet
When Capital Meets Resistance And The Hidden Slowdown Behind AI’s Buildout
These cancellations don’t show up as one off failures. They build month by month. A few delays in early summer turn into a steady pickup by fall, and by year end it’s clearly accelerating. That’s usually the moment when something stops being project specific and starts becoming structural. Developers don’t pull back in clusters unless the friction they’re facing is persistent and spreading.
What’s important is that this isn’t isolated to one region or one political climate. Projects are being blocked or delayed across the country because of power availability, water strain, zoning fights, noise concerns, shifting tax incentives, and timelines that stretch just long enough to break the financing math. Roughly $64 billion in planned investment has now been stalled or stopped over the last two years because the path from capital to concrete is no longer smooth. Capital is willing. Execution is not.
Why This Is Showing Up Now
When growth feels abundant and money is cheap, communities tolerate disruption and developers get the benefit of the doubt. When households are stretched, utilities are constrained, and financing costs stay elevated, that tolerance disappears fast. Local opposition becomes a quiet but powerful brake. It doesn’t show up in rate cuts or GDP prints, but it slows the economy just as effectively.
What makes this moment stand out is the timing. This resistance is showing up right as the top down narrative around AI infrastructure is peaking. That mismatch of massive enthusiasm at the capital allocation level colliding with real world limits on the ground is usually a warning sign. Permitting delays, lawsuits, and zoning battles become a hidden form of tightening. Growth doesn’t stop. It just takes longer, costs more, and fails more often.
My View
In my opinion this isn’t an AI bust story. It’s a constraint and confidence story. The economy is shifting from expansion to resistance. Even sectors with strong long term demand are now running into hard limits in grid capacity, water systems, local politics, labor availability, and financing math that no longer forgives delays. That’s what late cycle friction looks like.
Nothing here suggests an immediate collapse. But it does say the easy phase of growth is over. Capital can still move, but it has to fight harder at every step. And once projects start dying at the local level, that process rarely reverses quickly. Growth becomes slower, more contested, and far less forgiving long before the headlines catch up.
tweet