Offshore
Video
memenodes
“The road to financial freedom starts with investing”
The road: https://t.co/79YhrUI2l6
tweet
“The road to financial freedom starts with investing”
The road: https://t.co/79YhrUI2l6
tweet
Offshore
Photo
memenodes
crypto bro's after losing their entire net worth
“Scared money makes no money” https://t.co/RAzdORbpFX
tweet
crypto bro's after losing their entire net worth
“Scared money makes no money” https://t.co/RAzdORbpFX
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: $AMZN trades <15x NTM OCF — historically a very attractive risk/reward setup
Next two years of OCF Per Share Est:
2026 ➡️ $17.35
2027 ➡️ $21.01
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2027 OCF at $18.91 (-10% vs current estimates)👇🏽
18x | 20.7%
17x | 17.2%
16x | 13.8%
15x | 10.3% https://t.co/Ztz8VIoxO9
tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: $AMZN trades <15x NTM OCF — historically a very attractive risk/reward setup
Next two years of OCF Per Share Est:
2026 ➡️ $17.35
2027 ➡️ $21.01
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2027 OCF at $18.91 (-10% vs current estimates)👇🏽
18x | 20.7%
17x | 17.2%
16x | 13.8%
15x | 10.3% https://t.co/Ztz8VIoxO9
tweet
Offshore
Video
Quiver Quantitative
We posted this video in August, when a stock trade by a US Representative caught our eye.
UnitedHealth stock has now risen 37% since then.
Centene has risen 63%.
Follow for more. https://t.co/Aaa8yNRxif
tweet
We posted this video in August, when a stock trade by a US Representative caught our eye.
UnitedHealth stock has now risen 37% since then.
Centene has risen 63%.
Follow for more. https://t.co/Aaa8yNRxif
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
For the first time in 20+ years, Oracle is burning cash.
Is the CapEx worth it?
$ORCL https://t.co/ZRulzX39Lr
tweet
For the first time in 20+ years, Oracle is burning cash.
Is the CapEx worth it?
$ORCL https://t.co/ZRulzX39Lr
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
When the Yield Curve Starts Telling the Truth Before the Fed Does
Bills out to six months are all clustered around 3.65–3.70%. That’s basically sitting on top of a fed funds range of 3.50–3.75. So the very front end is saying that they believe the Fed for now, but every small move lower is a nod to softer data and more cuts down the road.
The 1 and 2 year notes are already below the policy range, around 3.55% and 3.52%. That’s the market stepping ahead of the Fed and saying…
“If growth and unemployment keep moving the way they have, you’re not staying this tight for long.”
Once you get to the 5 and 10 year area, yields around 3.7–4.1% are less about the next meeting and more about the next cycle. Those levels fit a world where growth is fading, inflation is coming off the boil, and we’re drifting toward another phase of support with more rate cuts plus balance sheet help rather than back to some clean, pre QE normal.
Then the 20 and 30 year yields near 4.75–4.80% sit there like a warning label. The long end is saying that even if they cut more and quietly restart QE through bill purchases, we’re still looking at big deficits, heavy issuance, and a choppy growth path. If you want to borrow for 30 years, you’re going to pay up.
What the Spreads Are Whispering
The shape matters as much as the levels.
Short bills yield a touch more than the 2 year. That’s the curve hinting that today’s stance is already too tight for where unemployment and growth are headed. The average rate over the next couple of years is expected to be lower than what you’re getting paid on 3 month paper.
The classic recession spreads with the 2s10s and 3 month vs 10 year have moved from deep inversion to a modest positive slope again. Historically that flip doesn’t mean all clear; it usually means we’ve moved from pricing the risk of a downturn to living through the early stages of it. The Fed has started cutting, but the labor market damage hasn’t fully shown up yet.
And the 10s and 30s spread, with the 30 year a good 60 plus bps above the 10 year, is the market baking in a future of repeated interventions. Tighten too far, unemployment rises, growth stalls, the Fed steps back in with some flavor of QE and all against a backdrop of structurally higher government borrowing.
The Big Picture Through That Lens
Viewed this way, the curve reads like a slow motion acknowledgement that the next leg of this story is weaker growth and rising unemployment, followed by a Fed that’s forced to do more than it wants to admit today.
The front end says we’re already pressing our luck. The belly says you’ll be easing into a soft or not so soft downturn. The long end says we don’t believe you can get out of this without more balance sheet games and we’re going to charge a long term premium for that.
It’s a curve that looks like it’s bracing for a slow bleed and another round of we’re not doing QE that everyone knows is QE.
tweet
When the Yield Curve Starts Telling the Truth Before the Fed Does
Bills out to six months are all clustered around 3.65–3.70%. That’s basically sitting on top of a fed funds range of 3.50–3.75. So the very front end is saying that they believe the Fed for now, but every small move lower is a nod to softer data and more cuts down the road.
The 1 and 2 year notes are already below the policy range, around 3.55% and 3.52%. That’s the market stepping ahead of the Fed and saying…
“If growth and unemployment keep moving the way they have, you’re not staying this tight for long.”
Once you get to the 5 and 10 year area, yields around 3.7–4.1% are less about the next meeting and more about the next cycle. Those levels fit a world where growth is fading, inflation is coming off the boil, and we’re drifting toward another phase of support with more rate cuts plus balance sheet help rather than back to some clean, pre QE normal.
Then the 20 and 30 year yields near 4.75–4.80% sit there like a warning label. The long end is saying that even if they cut more and quietly restart QE through bill purchases, we’re still looking at big deficits, heavy issuance, and a choppy growth path. If you want to borrow for 30 years, you’re going to pay up.
What the Spreads Are Whispering
The shape matters as much as the levels.
Short bills yield a touch more than the 2 year. That’s the curve hinting that today’s stance is already too tight for where unemployment and growth are headed. The average rate over the next couple of years is expected to be lower than what you’re getting paid on 3 month paper.
The classic recession spreads with the 2s10s and 3 month vs 10 year have moved from deep inversion to a modest positive slope again. Historically that flip doesn’t mean all clear; it usually means we’ve moved from pricing the risk of a downturn to living through the early stages of it. The Fed has started cutting, but the labor market damage hasn’t fully shown up yet.
And the 10s and 30s spread, with the 30 year a good 60 plus bps above the 10 year, is the market baking in a future of repeated interventions. Tighten too far, unemployment rises, growth stalls, the Fed steps back in with some flavor of QE and all against a backdrop of structurally higher government borrowing.
The Big Picture Through That Lens
Viewed this way, the curve reads like a slow motion acknowledgement that the next leg of this story is weaker growth and rising unemployment, followed by a Fed that’s forced to do more than it wants to admit today.
The front end says we’re already pressing our luck. The belly says you’ll be easing into a soft or not so soft downturn. The long end says we don’t believe you can get out of this without more balance sheet games and we’re going to charge a long term premium for that.
It’s a curve that looks like it’s bracing for a slow bleed and another round of we’re not doing QE that everyone knows is QE.
tweet