Offshore
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memenodes
Thanks to crypto, I take this $500,000 vehicle to work every morning https://t.co/bapQm14lES
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Thanks to crypto, I take this $500,000 vehicle to work every morning https://t.co/bapQm14lES
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Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
2008. 2020. And Now 2025 You Know What Comes Around
A 58% surge in unadjusted claims and a 15.8% jump in insured unemployment in a single week might look small compared to the extremes of 2008 or March 2020, but the pattern is what matters. Those episodes started the same way…a sharp rise in claims beneath the seasonally adjusted surface, led by the cyclical parts of the economy that feel the slowdown first. Transportation, manufacturing, construction, food services in every recession of the last four decades began with those sectors rolling over before the broader economy caught on.
So when people say we’ve seen worse, that’s true but the early signals before things got worse looked almost exactly like this. Historically, these kinds of spikes are the tremors before the earthquake, not after. They don’t call the recession by themselves, but they show you where the pressure is building. And if the past is any guide, this is the kind of shift that stops being brushed off as “seasonal noise” a few months later, once the headlines finally catch up to what the raw data was showing first.
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2008. 2020. And Now 2025 You Know What Comes Around
A 58% surge in unadjusted claims and a 15.8% jump in insured unemployment in a single week might look small compared to the extremes of 2008 or March 2020, but the pattern is what matters. Those episodes started the same way…a sharp rise in claims beneath the seasonally adjusted surface, led by the cyclical parts of the economy that feel the slowdown first. Transportation, manufacturing, construction, food services in every recession of the last four decades began with those sectors rolling over before the broader economy caught on.
So when people say we’ve seen worse, that’s true but the early signals before things got worse looked almost exactly like this. Historically, these kinds of spikes are the tremors before the earthquake, not after. They don’t call the recession by themselves, but they show you where the pressure is building. And if the past is any guide, this is the kind of shift that stops being brushed off as “seasonal noise” a few months later, once the headlines finally catch up to what the raw data was showing first.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
When the Market’s Hidden Order Flips
What this chart is really saying, in plain English is that the average stock is finally beating the celebrity stocks.
RSP is the S&P 500 equal weight ETF. When that line sits on top of everything else…above IWM (small caps), SPY (cap weight S&P), QQQ (mega cap tech), and SOXX (semis) it means breadth is in charge. Money is rotating away from the narrow group of giants that’s carried the market and into the rest of the index.
A few key things going on here…
Narrow leadership is cracking
SPY lagging RSP means the big index is no longer being juiced by the top 7–10 names. QQQ lagging SPY, and SOXX at the bottom, tells you the previous leadership of mega cap tech and the AI and semi complex is where investors are taking chips off the table.
This is what post pivot tape often looks like
With the Fed easing and global yields bending lower, the first instinct should be “buy duration” QQQ and high multiple growth. The fact that you’re not seeing that, and instead you get RSP and IWM leadership, says the market is reading the cuts as growth scare, not Goldilocks. People are rotating into cheaper, under owned, more domestic names rather than doubling down on the most crowded trade in the world.
Factor rotation, not pure risk off
If this were simple derisking, everything would be red and beta would be punished. Instead you’ve got…
•RSP green at the top
•IWM next
•SPY slightly positive
•QQQ and SOXX bleeding
That’s a relative performance story…basically sell what’s expensive and crowded; buy what’s been left for dead. It’s valuation, positioning, and year end scorecard management all layered together.
Semis at the bottom are the tell
SOXX underperforming QQQ says the market is quietly questioning the straight line AI demand narrative. Semis are both cyclical and the purest proxy for the hype trade. When they sit at the bottom of the stack on a day when rates are falling, that’s the crowd starting to hedge the idea that earnings and capex can’t keep up with the story.
Broadening isn’t a new bull, but if it lasts, the regime is changing
Intraday, this is just one snapshot. But if you string together weeks of RSP over IWM over SPY over QQQ over SOXX it means…
•Passive cap weight dominance is fading.
•Stock picking and factor spreads matter again.
•The everything else part of the market can outperform even if the headline index looks flat.
So the deeper message of this chart is that
We are moving from a one engine market (mega cap tech and semis) to a multi engine market where the average name finally pulls its weight, and the prior leaders quietly derate
If that pattern keeps showing up, it’s exactly the kind of tape you see when a bubble stops inflating and starts being redistributed not through a crash, but through time and rotation.
tweet
When the Market’s Hidden Order Flips
What this chart is really saying, in plain English is that the average stock is finally beating the celebrity stocks.
RSP is the S&P 500 equal weight ETF. When that line sits on top of everything else…above IWM (small caps), SPY (cap weight S&P), QQQ (mega cap tech), and SOXX (semis) it means breadth is in charge. Money is rotating away from the narrow group of giants that’s carried the market and into the rest of the index.
A few key things going on here…
Narrow leadership is cracking
SPY lagging RSP means the big index is no longer being juiced by the top 7–10 names. QQQ lagging SPY, and SOXX at the bottom, tells you the previous leadership of mega cap tech and the AI and semi complex is where investors are taking chips off the table.
This is what post pivot tape often looks like
With the Fed easing and global yields bending lower, the first instinct should be “buy duration” QQQ and high multiple growth. The fact that you’re not seeing that, and instead you get RSP and IWM leadership, says the market is reading the cuts as growth scare, not Goldilocks. People are rotating into cheaper, under owned, more domestic names rather than doubling down on the most crowded trade in the world.
Factor rotation, not pure risk off
If this were simple derisking, everything would be red and beta would be punished. Instead you’ve got…
•RSP green at the top
•IWM next
•SPY slightly positive
•QQQ and SOXX bleeding
That’s a relative performance story…basically sell what’s expensive and crowded; buy what’s been left for dead. It’s valuation, positioning, and year end scorecard management all layered together.
Semis at the bottom are the tell
SOXX underperforming QQQ says the market is quietly questioning the straight line AI demand narrative. Semis are both cyclical and the purest proxy for the hype trade. When they sit at the bottom of the stack on a day when rates are falling, that’s the crowd starting to hedge the idea that earnings and capex can’t keep up with the story.
Broadening isn’t a new bull, but if it lasts, the regime is changing
Intraday, this is just one snapshot. But if you string together weeks of RSP over IWM over SPY over QQQ over SOXX it means…
•Passive cap weight dominance is fading.
•Stock picking and factor spreads matter again.
•The everything else part of the market can outperform even if the headline index looks flat.
So the deeper message of this chart is that
We are moving from a one engine market (mega cap tech and semis) to a multi engine market where the average name finally pulls its weight, and the prior leaders quietly derate
If that pattern keeps showing up, it’s exactly the kind of tape you see when a bubble stops inflating and starts being redistributed not through a crash, but through time and rotation.
Get used to charts like today: RSP over IWM over SPY over QQQ over SOXX. https://t.co/3iBo1dHV5U tweet
Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Uber is trading close to its lowest earnings multiple ever.
$UBER https://t.co/jaYQ1SwHNl
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Uber is trading close to its lowest earnings multiple ever.
$UBER https://t.co/jaYQ1SwHNl
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Offshore
Video
memenodes
Who got you into crypto?
Thanks to them you’re going to die 10 years younger from stress and bad habits https://t.co/jkBnOI0EP1
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Who got you into crypto?
Thanks to them you’re going to die 10 years younger from stress and bad habits https://t.co/jkBnOI0EP1
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Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
When the Cash Machines Switch Places
What these two charts really show is a slow, almost unnoticed flip in who’s doing the heavy spending. Big Oil used to pour every spare dollar back into the ground. In the 2000s, capex went wild, the net line sank deep into the negative, and shareholder returns were an afterthought. Investors loved the story right up until it broke with oversupply, shale flooding the market, China cooling, and a brutal reset in 2014. Only after years of pain did oil companies get disciplined and start behaving like cash flow machines.
Now look at Big Tech. For most of its rise, tech was the opposite…asset light, high margin, and endlessly generous with buybacks. That combination is exactly why the sector compounded so well. But lately, the script is changing. The capex ramp tied to AI and data centers is enormous. The green line rolling negative tells you these companies are becoming capital hungry and not the frictionless cash engines they used to be.
We’ve Seen This Story Before
If you study old market cycles with railroads, utilities, telecom, oil the pattern is familiar. A new essential infrastructure emerges, promises huge growth, and attracts massive investment. For a while, returns stay strong. Then capacity catches up with the dream, and the sector that once felt unstoppable starts trading like an ordinary business again.
That’s the lesson baked into these charts. It’s not anti tech or pro oil; it’s just how capital cycles work.
What This Implies Going Forward
To me, there are a few clear signals…
Tech is shifting from lightweight compounder to something closer to a utility of compute. That doesn’t mean the end of the story, but it does mean the valuation framework will have to evolve. When a sector goes from minting cash to absorbing cash, markets eventually notice.
And ironically, energy, the sector everyone seems tired of now looks more like tech did a decade ago with disciplined spending, steady buybacks, real cash flow, and very little love from investors.
It’s not about calling a top or predicting a crash. It’s about recognizing that capital always rotates. The heroes of one cycle tend to fund the opportunities of the next. And these charts are the early footprints of that shift.
tweet
When the Cash Machines Switch Places
What these two charts really show is a slow, almost unnoticed flip in who’s doing the heavy spending. Big Oil used to pour every spare dollar back into the ground. In the 2000s, capex went wild, the net line sank deep into the negative, and shareholder returns were an afterthought. Investors loved the story right up until it broke with oversupply, shale flooding the market, China cooling, and a brutal reset in 2014. Only after years of pain did oil companies get disciplined and start behaving like cash flow machines.
Now look at Big Tech. For most of its rise, tech was the opposite…asset light, high margin, and endlessly generous with buybacks. That combination is exactly why the sector compounded so well. But lately, the script is changing. The capex ramp tied to AI and data centers is enormous. The green line rolling negative tells you these companies are becoming capital hungry and not the frictionless cash engines they used to be.
We’ve Seen This Story Before
If you study old market cycles with railroads, utilities, telecom, oil the pattern is familiar. A new essential infrastructure emerges, promises huge growth, and attracts massive investment. For a while, returns stay strong. Then capacity catches up with the dream, and the sector that once felt unstoppable starts trading like an ordinary business again.
That’s the lesson baked into these charts. It’s not anti tech or pro oil; it’s just how capital cycles work.
What This Implies Going Forward
To me, there are a few clear signals…
Tech is shifting from lightweight compounder to something closer to a utility of compute. That doesn’t mean the end of the story, but it does mean the valuation framework will have to evolve. When a sector goes from minting cash to absorbing cash, markets eventually notice.
And ironically, energy, the sector everyone seems tired of now looks more like tech did a decade ago with disciplined spending, steady buybacks, real cash flow, and very little love from investors.
It’s not about calling a top or predicting a crash. It’s about recognizing that capital always rotates. The heroes of one cycle tend to fund the opportunities of the next. And these charts are the early footprints of that shift.
Survive long enough (on Wall Street) and you will start to see the same things over and over. https://t.co/XNegUJfVM4 tweet
Offshore
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memenodes
leverage trading is like gambling, it’s awesome https://t.co/2Zja8bFyuf
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leverage trading is like gambling, it’s awesome https://t.co/2Zja8bFyuf
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump considers eliminating taxes on gambling winnings. https://t.co/hErigtE7wf tweet
The Few Bets That Matter
The market is the combinaison of millions individuals.
If you think you're smarter than this. You're certainly not as smart as you'd expect.
And even if you were to outsmart it. Once or many times. You won't make money until it agrees with you.
That's why patience matters. That's why I don't buy downtrends. That's why I try to leave my ego asides.
Because even being right doesn't matter until proven right.
tweet
The market is the combinaison of millions individuals.
If you think you're smarter than this. You're certainly not as smart as you'd expect.
And even if you were to outsmart it. Once or many times. You won't make money until it agrees with you.
That's why patience matters. That's why I don't buy downtrends. That's why I try to leave my ego asides.
Because even being right doesn't matter until proven right.
tweet