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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Chris Deluzio has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/X5dLirwyWd
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JUST IN: Representative Chris Deluzio has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/X5dLirwyWd
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AkhenOsiris
$SHOP
Citizens analyst Andrew Boone reiterated a Market Outperform rating and $185 price target on Shopify.
"This morning, Shopify released Shopify '26 Winter Editions, its biannual product update whereby the company shipped over 150 updates with AI powering a new wave of efficiency, personalization, and innovation for Shopify merchants. Our key takeaway from the release is that Shopify is integrating AI across all aspects of commerce as the company continues to improve the overall experience for merchants through smarter tooling, automation, and simpler ways to use Shopify. This as we also believe Shopify is at the forefront of agentic commerce as the company expands the surface area where merchants can meet customers, which we believe should help drive further share gains and GMV growth for eCommerce merchants. To that end, we remain confident that Shopify can continue to take share of the $6T+ eCommerce market with Shopify being the leader in online, offline, and B2B, while we believe international is an additional growth lever. To that end, we reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $185 price target."
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$SHOP
Citizens analyst Andrew Boone reiterated a Market Outperform rating and $185 price target on Shopify.
"This morning, Shopify released Shopify '26 Winter Editions, its biannual product update whereby the company shipped over 150 updates with AI powering a new wave of efficiency, personalization, and innovation for Shopify merchants. Our key takeaway from the release is that Shopify is integrating AI across all aspects of commerce as the company continues to improve the overall experience for merchants through smarter tooling, automation, and simpler ways to use Shopify. This as we also believe Shopify is at the forefront of agentic commerce as the company expands the surface area where merchants can meet customers, which we believe should help drive further share gains and GMV growth for eCommerce merchants. To that end, we remain confident that Shopify can continue to take share of the $6T+ eCommerce market with Shopify being the leader in online, offline, and B2B, while we believe international is an additional growth lever. To that end, we reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $185 price target."
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
🏰 Disney invests $1B in OpenAI.
• Disney becomes a major OpenAI customer.
• Sora & ChatGPT will be able to generate content featuring 200+ Disney characters for social posts (no talent likenesses or voices included). https://t.co/iPNyYbIb89
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🏰 Disney invests $1B in OpenAI.
• Disney becomes a major OpenAI customer.
• Sora & ChatGPT will be able to generate content featuring 200+ Disney characters for social posts (no talent likenesses or voices included). https://t.co/iPNyYbIb89
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Offshore
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memenodes
Thanks to crypto, I take this $500,000 vehicle to work every morning https://t.co/bapQm14lES
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Thanks to crypto, I take this $500,000 vehicle to work every morning https://t.co/bapQm14lES
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Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
2008. 2020. And Now 2025 You Know What Comes Around
A 58% surge in unadjusted claims and a 15.8% jump in insured unemployment in a single week might look small compared to the extremes of 2008 or March 2020, but the pattern is what matters. Those episodes started the same way…a sharp rise in claims beneath the seasonally adjusted surface, led by the cyclical parts of the economy that feel the slowdown first. Transportation, manufacturing, construction, food services in every recession of the last four decades began with those sectors rolling over before the broader economy caught on.
So when people say we’ve seen worse, that’s true but the early signals before things got worse looked almost exactly like this. Historically, these kinds of spikes are the tremors before the earthquake, not after. They don’t call the recession by themselves, but they show you where the pressure is building. And if the past is any guide, this is the kind of shift that stops being brushed off as “seasonal noise” a few months later, once the headlines finally catch up to what the raw data was showing first.
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2008. 2020. And Now 2025 You Know What Comes Around
A 58% surge in unadjusted claims and a 15.8% jump in insured unemployment in a single week might look small compared to the extremes of 2008 or March 2020, but the pattern is what matters. Those episodes started the same way…a sharp rise in claims beneath the seasonally adjusted surface, led by the cyclical parts of the economy that feel the slowdown first. Transportation, manufacturing, construction, food services in every recession of the last four decades began with those sectors rolling over before the broader economy caught on.
So when people say we’ve seen worse, that’s true but the early signals before things got worse looked almost exactly like this. Historically, these kinds of spikes are the tremors before the earthquake, not after. They don’t call the recession by themselves, but they show you where the pressure is building. And if the past is any guide, this is the kind of shift that stops being brushed off as “seasonal noise” a few months later, once the headlines finally catch up to what the raw data was showing first.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
When the Market’s Hidden Order Flips
What this chart is really saying, in plain English is that the average stock is finally beating the celebrity stocks.
RSP is the S&P 500 equal weight ETF. When that line sits on top of everything else…above IWM (small caps), SPY (cap weight S&P), QQQ (mega cap tech), and SOXX (semis) it means breadth is in charge. Money is rotating away from the narrow group of giants that’s carried the market and into the rest of the index.
A few key things going on here…
Narrow leadership is cracking
SPY lagging RSP means the big index is no longer being juiced by the top 7–10 names. QQQ lagging SPY, and SOXX at the bottom, tells you the previous leadership of mega cap tech and the AI and semi complex is where investors are taking chips off the table.
This is what post pivot tape often looks like
With the Fed easing and global yields bending lower, the first instinct should be “buy duration” QQQ and high multiple growth. The fact that you’re not seeing that, and instead you get RSP and IWM leadership, says the market is reading the cuts as growth scare, not Goldilocks. People are rotating into cheaper, under owned, more domestic names rather than doubling down on the most crowded trade in the world.
Factor rotation, not pure risk off
If this were simple derisking, everything would be red and beta would be punished. Instead you’ve got…
•RSP green at the top
•IWM next
•SPY slightly positive
•QQQ and SOXX bleeding
That’s a relative performance story…basically sell what’s expensive and crowded; buy what’s been left for dead. It’s valuation, positioning, and year end scorecard management all layered together.
Semis at the bottom are the tell
SOXX underperforming QQQ says the market is quietly questioning the straight line AI demand narrative. Semis are both cyclical and the purest proxy for the hype trade. When they sit at the bottom of the stack on a day when rates are falling, that’s the crowd starting to hedge the idea that earnings and capex can’t keep up with the story.
Broadening isn’t a new bull, but if it lasts, the regime is changing
Intraday, this is just one snapshot. But if you string together weeks of RSP over IWM over SPY over QQQ over SOXX it means…
•Passive cap weight dominance is fading.
•Stock picking and factor spreads matter again.
•The everything else part of the market can outperform even if the headline index looks flat.
So the deeper message of this chart is that
We are moving from a one engine market (mega cap tech and semis) to a multi engine market where the average name finally pulls its weight, and the prior leaders quietly derate
If that pattern keeps showing up, it’s exactly the kind of tape you see when a bubble stops inflating and starts being redistributed not through a crash, but through time and rotation.
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When the Market’s Hidden Order Flips
What this chart is really saying, in plain English is that the average stock is finally beating the celebrity stocks.
RSP is the S&P 500 equal weight ETF. When that line sits on top of everything else…above IWM (small caps), SPY (cap weight S&P), QQQ (mega cap tech), and SOXX (semis) it means breadth is in charge. Money is rotating away from the narrow group of giants that’s carried the market and into the rest of the index.
A few key things going on here…
Narrow leadership is cracking
SPY lagging RSP means the big index is no longer being juiced by the top 7–10 names. QQQ lagging SPY, and SOXX at the bottom, tells you the previous leadership of mega cap tech and the AI and semi complex is where investors are taking chips off the table.
This is what post pivot tape often looks like
With the Fed easing and global yields bending lower, the first instinct should be “buy duration” QQQ and high multiple growth. The fact that you’re not seeing that, and instead you get RSP and IWM leadership, says the market is reading the cuts as growth scare, not Goldilocks. People are rotating into cheaper, under owned, more domestic names rather than doubling down on the most crowded trade in the world.
Factor rotation, not pure risk off
If this were simple derisking, everything would be red and beta would be punished. Instead you’ve got…
•RSP green at the top
•IWM next
•SPY slightly positive
•QQQ and SOXX bleeding
That’s a relative performance story…basically sell what’s expensive and crowded; buy what’s been left for dead. It’s valuation, positioning, and year end scorecard management all layered together.
Semis at the bottom are the tell
SOXX underperforming QQQ says the market is quietly questioning the straight line AI demand narrative. Semis are both cyclical and the purest proxy for the hype trade. When they sit at the bottom of the stack on a day when rates are falling, that’s the crowd starting to hedge the idea that earnings and capex can’t keep up with the story.
Broadening isn’t a new bull, but if it lasts, the regime is changing
Intraday, this is just one snapshot. But if you string together weeks of RSP over IWM over SPY over QQQ over SOXX it means…
•Passive cap weight dominance is fading.
•Stock picking and factor spreads matter again.
•The everything else part of the market can outperform even if the headline index looks flat.
So the deeper message of this chart is that
We are moving from a one engine market (mega cap tech and semis) to a multi engine market where the average name finally pulls its weight, and the prior leaders quietly derate
If that pattern keeps showing up, it’s exactly the kind of tape you see when a bubble stops inflating and starts being redistributed not through a crash, but through time and rotation.
Get used to charts like today: RSP over IWM over SPY over QQQ over SOXX. https://t.co/3iBo1dHV5U tweet
Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Uber is trading close to its lowest earnings multiple ever.
$UBER https://t.co/jaYQ1SwHNl
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Uber is trading close to its lowest earnings multiple ever.
$UBER https://t.co/jaYQ1SwHNl
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Offshore
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memenodes
Who got you into crypto?
Thanks to them you’re going to die 10 years younger from stress and bad habits https://t.co/jkBnOI0EP1
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Who got you into crypto?
Thanks to them you’re going to die 10 years younger from stress and bad habits https://t.co/jkBnOI0EP1
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