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EndGame Macro
The BIS Blueprint for the Next Payment System
If you strip away the technical framing, this BIS bulletin is basically admitting that the global payments system hasn’t caught up with the goals set years ago. The G20 wanted cheaper, faster, cleaner cross border payments by 2027, but the BIS is now saying, almost in plain language that they’re not going to get there on time. Most of the policy groundwork is done, but the part that actually matters like getting countries and private institutions to implement the changes is moving slowly. The technology isn’t the weak link anymore. Coordination is. Incentives are. And the old system’s inertia is.
That’s the real message is that the plumbing we rely on for moving money across borders is overdue for a rebuild, and the existing institutions are struggling to retrofit it while keeping everything stable.
Where Blockchain Actually Fits In Here
What’s interesting is how the paper sidesteps the flashy, headline version of crypto entirely. But if you read between the lines, it’s very clear where the BIS sees the future. They talk about connecting fast payment systems across countries, introducing programmability, making settlement continuous, and building platforms that can move different types of money across the same rails. That’s basically the blueprint for tokenised deposits, multi CBDC platforms, and permissioned blockchain systems.
It’s not Bitcoin. It’s not DeFi. It’s the kind of institutional blockchain that lives behind the scenes like programmable, supervised, and interoperable and it’s meant to do the things today’s correspondent banking system fundamentally can’t. Tokenisation is the part of the bulletin that comes closest to revealing the bigger play. They’re hinting that the real breakthrough won’t be a new messaging format or incremental upgrades; it’ll be a programmable settlement layer that can sit underneath everything and actually unify it.
Where This Is All Heading
If you follow the logic of this bulletin to its end, the direction is pretty clear. Cross border settlement is going digital, tokenised, and highly coordinated. The money itself, whether issued by a central bank or a private bank will increasingly travel through systems that look a lot more like blockchain infrastructure than the clearing networks we use now. And the rails connecting all of it will depend on interoperability, not isolated systems patched together with workarounds.
That doesn’t mean the BIS is going to embrace public blockchains; it means the design principles of blockchain like programmability, shared ledgers, atomic settlement are now being moved into the regulated world on terms policymakers can accept. They want the efficiency without the chaos. The innovation without the loss of control. And they will choose whatever platforms let them do that.
My View
The future the BIS is describing is one where the global financial system quietly migrates to tokenised infrastructure, and the networks that already specialize in interoperability will eventually become the connective tissue. It won’t look like a crypto revolution but more like the plumbing changing underneath the floorboards and then one day everyone realizes the house works differently than it used to.
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The BIS Blueprint for the Next Payment System
If you strip away the technical framing, this BIS bulletin is basically admitting that the global payments system hasn’t caught up with the goals set years ago. The G20 wanted cheaper, faster, cleaner cross border payments by 2027, but the BIS is now saying, almost in plain language that they’re not going to get there on time. Most of the policy groundwork is done, but the part that actually matters like getting countries and private institutions to implement the changes is moving slowly. The technology isn’t the weak link anymore. Coordination is. Incentives are. And the old system’s inertia is.
That’s the real message is that the plumbing we rely on for moving money across borders is overdue for a rebuild, and the existing institutions are struggling to retrofit it while keeping everything stable.
Where Blockchain Actually Fits In Here
What’s interesting is how the paper sidesteps the flashy, headline version of crypto entirely. But if you read between the lines, it’s very clear where the BIS sees the future. They talk about connecting fast payment systems across countries, introducing programmability, making settlement continuous, and building platforms that can move different types of money across the same rails. That’s basically the blueprint for tokenised deposits, multi CBDC platforms, and permissioned blockchain systems.
It’s not Bitcoin. It’s not DeFi. It’s the kind of institutional blockchain that lives behind the scenes like programmable, supervised, and interoperable and it’s meant to do the things today’s correspondent banking system fundamentally can’t. Tokenisation is the part of the bulletin that comes closest to revealing the bigger play. They’re hinting that the real breakthrough won’t be a new messaging format or incremental upgrades; it’ll be a programmable settlement layer that can sit underneath everything and actually unify it.
Where This Is All Heading
If you follow the logic of this bulletin to its end, the direction is pretty clear. Cross border settlement is going digital, tokenised, and highly coordinated. The money itself, whether issued by a central bank or a private bank will increasingly travel through systems that look a lot more like blockchain infrastructure than the clearing networks we use now. And the rails connecting all of it will depend on interoperability, not isolated systems patched together with workarounds.
That doesn’t mean the BIS is going to embrace public blockchains; it means the design principles of blockchain like programmability, shared ledgers, atomic settlement are now being moved into the regulated world on terms policymakers can accept. They want the efficiency without the chaos. The innovation without the loss of control. And they will choose whatever platforms let them do that.
My View
The future the BIS is describing is one where the global financial system quietly migrates to tokenised infrastructure, and the networks that already specialize in interoperability will eventually become the connective tissue. It won’t look like a crypto revolution but more like the plumbing changing underneath the floorboards and then one day everyone realizes the house works differently than it used to.
The motivations behind the #G20 Roadmap for enhancing #CrossBorderPayments are as relevant as ever. Challenges remain, but progress has been made across many parts of the payments ecosystem, laying the groundwork for better end user outcomes. https://t.co/RjSvINxEtk
#BISBulletin https://t.co/Qe7SsipuTv tweet
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stop thinking about ethereum dump, let's get outside
the outside: https://t.co/xCyhEgJuvF
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stop thinking about ethereum dump, let's get outside
the outside: https://t.co/xCyhEgJuvF
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less money with good sleep is better than huge money with less sleep
Crypto broy with less money and less sleep : https://t.co/sPhhFob2J6
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less money with good sleep is better than huge money with less sleep
Crypto broy with less money and less sleep : https://t.co/sPhhFob2J6
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memenodes
When you've watched a few youtube videos and now you're ready to become a crypto trader https://t.co/kuYskDpmm4
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When you've watched a few youtube videos and now you're ready to become a crypto trader https://t.co/kuYskDpmm4
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EndGame Macro
Behind the Lines of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report And Why the Labor Market Isn’t As Strong As It Pretends to Be
Seasonally adjusted claims rose to 236,000, which is a noticeable jump but still inside the range we’ve been stuck in for over a year. The insured unemployment rate is just 1.2%, a level that historically lines up with a slowing economy. If you only glance at the seasonally smoothed charts the tight band of initial claims floating around 220k and the remarkably flat line of insured unemployment you’d think we’re gliding through a soft landing.
But that’s the 30,000 foot view, and at that distance almost anything looks calm.
Zoom in, and the tone changes.
The Raw Data Is Where the Cracks Show Up
The unadjusted claims, the ones not smoothed by holiday models and seasonal filters jumped 58% in a single week. That’s 313,140 real people filing for new benefits versus the 198k in the previous week. Yes, early December always brings noise, but this surge is too large to hand wave away. It tells you the labor market is losing resilience beneath the surface.
Even more telling is the insured unemployment in state programs where it spiked 15.8% in one week, far above what the seasonal factors anticipated. And the increases weren’t random they were concentrated in the classic early recession sectors…
•transportation and warehousing
•manufacturing
•construction
•accommodation and food services
These are the industries that turn first when demand softens and companies quietly prepare for leaner months ahead.
When these sectors flash red, history says the broader economy follows.
The Good Data Isn’t As Good As It Looks
Some improvements in the report aren’t signs of strength, they’re artifacts.
A few examples…
The low insured unemployment rate?
That number only counts people eligible for unemployment insurance. Gig workers, temp workers, part!timers, people who exhausted benefits, people forced into early retirement, they all disappear from the data. A low insured rate can mean everyone has jobs, but it can just as easily mean the safety net covers fewer people.
The drop in continued claims?
A fall in continued claims can mean folks are getting jobs… but it can also mean they’re running out of eligibility. With benefit durations shrinking in many states, exhaustion looks like “improvement” in the headline but is anything but.
This is why forensic reads matter, you have to interrogate the good data, not just the bad.
The Pattern That Stands Out
Across the entire report, one theme repeats…
The labor market is no longer buffering the economy.
All year long, continued claims have drifted higher despite rate cuts, easier financial conditions, and a Fed that’s saying it’s trying to protect employment. If this is the best the labor market can do with policy help, then it’s already running out of cushion.
The seasonally adjusted line is the heartbeat. The unadjusted line is the arrhythmia. And it’s the arrhythmia you watch when you want to know what comes next.
My Take
This is exactly the kind of claims profile you see right before a recession becomes obvious, not after. Not a spike. Not a collapse. A slow erosion of strength beneath a still orderly surface.
All the stress is showing up in the places you’d expect it to show up first…cyclical sectors, wage sensitive employers, and states tied to manufacturing and goods movement. And the big moves are in the unadjusted data, which tends to turn earlier than the sanitized headline number.
If the broader macro environment keeps weakening with tighter credit, higher refinancing costs, compressed margins then this labor market won’t act as a shock absorber. It’ll act as an amplifier.
That’s the real message of this report.
The ground beneath us is getting thinner, and the seasonal smoothing is the only thing making it look steady.
tweet
Behind the Lines of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report And Why the Labor Market Isn’t As Strong As It Pretends to Be
Seasonally adjusted claims rose to 236,000, which is a noticeable jump but still inside the range we’ve been stuck in for over a year. The insured unemployment rate is just 1.2%, a level that historically lines up with a slowing economy. If you only glance at the seasonally smoothed charts the tight band of initial claims floating around 220k and the remarkably flat line of insured unemployment you’d think we’re gliding through a soft landing.
But that’s the 30,000 foot view, and at that distance almost anything looks calm.
Zoom in, and the tone changes.
The Raw Data Is Where the Cracks Show Up
The unadjusted claims, the ones not smoothed by holiday models and seasonal filters jumped 58% in a single week. That’s 313,140 real people filing for new benefits versus the 198k in the previous week. Yes, early December always brings noise, but this surge is too large to hand wave away. It tells you the labor market is losing resilience beneath the surface.
Even more telling is the insured unemployment in state programs where it spiked 15.8% in one week, far above what the seasonal factors anticipated. And the increases weren’t random they were concentrated in the classic early recession sectors…
•transportation and warehousing
•manufacturing
•construction
•accommodation and food services
These are the industries that turn first when demand softens and companies quietly prepare for leaner months ahead.
When these sectors flash red, history says the broader economy follows.
The Good Data Isn’t As Good As It Looks
Some improvements in the report aren’t signs of strength, they’re artifacts.
A few examples…
The low insured unemployment rate?
That number only counts people eligible for unemployment insurance. Gig workers, temp workers, part!timers, people who exhausted benefits, people forced into early retirement, they all disappear from the data. A low insured rate can mean everyone has jobs, but it can just as easily mean the safety net covers fewer people.
The drop in continued claims?
A fall in continued claims can mean folks are getting jobs… but it can also mean they’re running out of eligibility. With benefit durations shrinking in many states, exhaustion looks like “improvement” in the headline but is anything but.
This is why forensic reads matter, you have to interrogate the good data, not just the bad.
The Pattern That Stands Out
Across the entire report, one theme repeats…
The labor market is no longer buffering the economy.
All year long, continued claims have drifted higher despite rate cuts, easier financial conditions, and a Fed that’s saying it’s trying to protect employment. If this is the best the labor market can do with policy help, then it’s already running out of cushion.
The seasonally adjusted line is the heartbeat. The unadjusted line is the arrhythmia. And it’s the arrhythmia you watch when you want to know what comes next.
My Take
This is exactly the kind of claims profile you see right before a recession becomes obvious, not after. Not a spike. Not a collapse. A slow erosion of strength beneath a still orderly surface.
All the stress is showing up in the places you’d expect it to show up first…cyclical sectors, wage sensitive employers, and states tied to manufacturing and goods movement. And the big moves are in the unadjusted data, which tends to turn earlier than the sanitized headline number.
If the broader macro environment keeps weakening with tighter credit, higher refinancing costs, compressed margins then this labor market won’t act as a shock absorber. It’ll act as an amplifier.
That’s the real message of this report.
The ground beneath us is getting thinner, and the seasonal smoothing is the only thing making it look steady.
tweet