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EndGame Macro
Millions of Empty Homes And Still a Shortage? America Is Becoming Japan
These states don’t have a shortage, they have homes sitting empty. Maine, Vermont, Alaska, West Virginia, Mississippi, Arkansas… these are places with either seasonal homes, aging populations, slow job growth, or long running out migration.
Nationally, the number sits around 15 million vacant homes, about 10% of the housing stock. That’s not the picture of a country that simply ran out of houses. It’s the picture of a country where the homes aren’t always where people want to live or work.
And when you zoom in on who owns the housing, the story deepens. Boomers and older generations hold over 40% of all U.S. real estate. As they age out, somewhere around 8–9 million homes are expected to hit the market by the mid 2030s. Some years could see more than a million units freed up just from generational turnover.
This isn’t a shortage. It’s a geographic mismatch.
The Japan Parallel Is Hard to Ignore
Japan lived this story before us.
For decades, Tokyo and a few big cities felt chronically under housed with prices high, supply tight, demand endless. Meanwhile, rural Japan quietly emptied out. Entire regions lost young people to the cities, and over time those vacant homes turned into akiya “ghost houses.” Millions of them.
What’s striking is that Japan kept using the “housing shortage” language long after the national population began to shrink. The real shortage was local and inside the major economic hubs while everywhere else was slipping into long term decline.
Sound familiar?
It should. Because the U.S. is setting up with the exact same pattern with tight urban supply, aging rural stock, big demographic turnover, and a slow population flattening that kicks in around 2025–2030.
Why the Housing Shortage Narrative Won’t Go Away
So why does the messaging keep insisting we’re short on homes when the data says we’re sitting on millions of empties?
Because the narrative isn’t about total units. It’s about keeping the system moving through an uncomfortable demographic shift.
Here’s the quiet logic behind it…
1.Protect asset prices as Boomers start releasing supply.
2.Justify funneling capital into major economic hubs, not declining regions.
https://t.co/Te9ldXTY00 time while the population slowly ages and migrates toward the cities.
4.Avoid admitting the real issue, demand isn’t vanishing, it’s concentrating.
This is exactly how Japan handled its transition. The country didn’t talk about population decline until it was impossible to ignore. Before that, the story was always framed through housing pressure in Tokyo even as rural areas hollowed out.
My View
The U.S. isn’t heading for a national housing shortage. It’s heading for housing polarization with tight supply and high prices in a handful of economic magnets, and growing vacancy in places that struggle to attract young workers or new industries.
As demographics shift and Boomers release millions of units, those homes will not magically solve affordability in New York, Austin, Denver, or Seattle. They’ll mostly end up in regions already losing population.
Policy will follow the people. Investment dollars will follow the jobs. Rural decline accelerates, metro hubs thicken, and the empty home map expands even as the housing shortage narrative stays front and center.
Not because it’s true in a literal sense but because it’s the cleanest way to manage a slow demographic turn without spooking the country.
The U.S. is starting the same demographic chapter Japan opened a generation ago. Anyone reading the signs can see where it leads.
tweet
Millions of Empty Homes And Still a Shortage? America Is Becoming Japan
These states don’t have a shortage, they have homes sitting empty. Maine, Vermont, Alaska, West Virginia, Mississippi, Arkansas… these are places with either seasonal homes, aging populations, slow job growth, or long running out migration.
Nationally, the number sits around 15 million vacant homes, about 10% of the housing stock. That’s not the picture of a country that simply ran out of houses. It’s the picture of a country where the homes aren’t always where people want to live or work.
And when you zoom in on who owns the housing, the story deepens. Boomers and older generations hold over 40% of all U.S. real estate. As they age out, somewhere around 8–9 million homes are expected to hit the market by the mid 2030s. Some years could see more than a million units freed up just from generational turnover.
This isn’t a shortage. It’s a geographic mismatch.
The Japan Parallel Is Hard to Ignore
Japan lived this story before us.
For decades, Tokyo and a few big cities felt chronically under housed with prices high, supply tight, demand endless. Meanwhile, rural Japan quietly emptied out. Entire regions lost young people to the cities, and over time those vacant homes turned into akiya “ghost houses.” Millions of them.
What’s striking is that Japan kept using the “housing shortage” language long after the national population began to shrink. The real shortage was local and inside the major economic hubs while everywhere else was slipping into long term decline.
Sound familiar?
It should. Because the U.S. is setting up with the exact same pattern with tight urban supply, aging rural stock, big demographic turnover, and a slow population flattening that kicks in around 2025–2030.
Why the Housing Shortage Narrative Won’t Go Away
So why does the messaging keep insisting we’re short on homes when the data says we’re sitting on millions of empties?
Because the narrative isn’t about total units. It’s about keeping the system moving through an uncomfortable demographic shift.
Here’s the quiet logic behind it…
1.Protect asset prices as Boomers start releasing supply.
2.Justify funneling capital into major economic hubs, not declining regions.
https://t.co/Te9ldXTY00 time while the population slowly ages and migrates toward the cities.
4.Avoid admitting the real issue, demand isn’t vanishing, it’s concentrating.
This is exactly how Japan handled its transition. The country didn’t talk about population decline until it was impossible to ignore. Before that, the story was always framed through housing pressure in Tokyo even as rural areas hollowed out.
My View
The U.S. isn’t heading for a national housing shortage. It’s heading for housing polarization with tight supply and high prices in a handful of economic magnets, and growing vacancy in places that struggle to attract young workers or new industries.
As demographics shift and Boomers release millions of units, those homes will not magically solve affordability in New York, Austin, Denver, or Seattle. They’ll mostly end up in regions already losing population.
Policy will follow the people. Investment dollars will follow the jobs. Rural decline accelerates, metro hubs thicken, and the empty home map expands even as the housing shortage narrative stays front and center.
Not because it’s true in a literal sense but because it’s the cleanest way to manage a slow demographic turn without spooking the country.
The U.S. is starting the same demographic chapter Japan opened a generation ago. Anyone reading the signs can see where it leads.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Millions of Empty Homes And Still a Shortage? America Is Becoming Japan
These states don’t have a shortage, they have homes sitting empty. Maine, Vermont, Alaska, West Virginia, Mississippi, Arkansas… these are places with either seasonal homes, aging populations, slow job growth, or long running out migration.
Nationally, the number sits around 15 million vacant homes, about 10% of the housing stock. That’s not the picture of a country that simply ran out of houses. It’s the picture of a country where the homes aren’t always where people want to live or work.
And when you zoom in on who owns the housing, the story deepens. Boomers and older generations hold over 40% of all U.S. real estate. As they age out, somewhere around 8–9 million homes are expected to hit the market by the mid 2030s. Some years could see more than a million units freed up just from generational turnover.
This isn’t a shortage. It’s a geographic mismatch.
The Japan Parallel Is Hard to Ignore
Japan lived this story before us.
For decades, Tokyo and a few big cities felt chronically under housed with prices high, supply tight, demand endless. Meanwhile, rural Japan quietly emptied out. Entire regions lost young people to the cities, and over time those vacant homes turned into akiya “ghost houses.” Millions of them.
What’s striking is that Japan kept using the “housing shortage” language long after the national population began to shrink. The real shortage was local and inside the major economic hubs while everywhere else was slipping into long term decline.
Sound familiar?
It should. Because the U.S. is setting up with the exact same pattern with tight urban supply, aging rural stock, big demographic turnover, and a slow population flattening that kicks in around 2025–2030.
Why the Housing Shortage Narrative Won’t Go Away
So why does the messaging keep insisting we’re short on homes when the data says we’re sitting on millions of empties?
Because the narrative isn’t about total units. It’s about keeping the system moving through an uncomfortable demographic shift.
Here’s the quiet logic behind it…
1. Protect asset prices as Boomers start releasing supply.
2. Justify funneling capital into major economic hubs, not declining regions.
3. Buy time while the population slowly ages and migrates toward the cities.
4. Avoid admitting the real issue, demand isn’t vanishing, it’s concentrating.
This is exactly how Japan handled its transition. The country didn’t talk about population decline until it was impossible to ignore. Before that, the story was always framed through housing pressure in Tokyo even as rural areas hollowed out.
My View
The U.S. isn’t heading for a national housing shortage. It’s heading for housing polarization with tight supply and high prices in a handful of economic magnets, and growing vacancy in places that struggle to attract young workers or new industries.
As demographics shift and Boomers release millions of units, those homes will not magically solve affordability in New York, Austin, Denver, or Seattle. They’ll mostly end up in regions already losing population.
Policy will follow the people. Investment dollars will follow the jobs. Rural decline accelerates, metro hubs thicken, and the empty home map expands even as the housing shortage narrative stays front and center.
Not because it’s true in a literal sense but because it’s the cleanest way to manage a slow demographic turn without spooking the country.
The U.S. is starting the same demographic chapter Japan opened a generation ago. Anyone reading the signs can see where it leads.
tweet
Millions of Empty Homes And Still a Shortage? America Is Becoming Japan
These states don’t have a shortage, they have homes sitting empty. Maine, Vermont, Alaska, West Virginia, Mississippi, Arkansas… these are places with either seasonal homes, aging populations, slow job growth, or long running out migration.
Nationally, the number sits around 15 million vacant homes, about 10% of the housing stock. That’s not the picture of a country that simply ran out of houses. It’s the picture of a country where the homes aren’t always where people want to live or work.
And when you zoom in on who owns the housing, the story deepens. Boomers and older generations hold over 40% of all U.S. real estate. As they age out, somewhere around 8–9 million homes are expected to hit the market by the mid 2030s. Some years could see more than a million units freed up just from generational turnover.
This isn’t a shortage. It’s a geographic mismatch.
The Japan Parallel Is Hard to Ignore
Japan lived this story before us.
For decades, Tokyo and a few big cities felt chronically under housed with prices high, supply tight, demand endless. Meanwhile, rural Japan quietly emptied out. Entire regions lost young people to the cities, and over time those vacant homes turned into akiya “ghost houses.” Millions of them.
What’s striking is that Japan kept using the “housing shortage” language long after the national population began to shrink. The real shortage was local and inside the major economic hubs while everywhere else was slipping into long term decline.
Sound familiar?
It should. Because the U.S. is setting up with the exact same pattern with tight urban supply, aging rural stock, big demographic turnover, and a slow population flattening that kicks in around 2025–2030.
Why the Housing Shortage Narrative Won’t Go Away
So why does the messaging keep insisting we’re short on homes when the data says we’re sitting on millions of empties?
Because the narrative isn’t about total units. It’s about keeping the system moving through an uncomfortable demographic shift.
Here’s the quiet logic behind it…
1. Protect asset prices as Boomers start releasing supply.
2. Justify funneling capital into major economic hubs, not declining regions.
3. Buy time while the population slowly ages and migrates toward the cities.
4. Avoid admitting the real issue, demand isn’t vanishing, it’s concentrating.
This is exactly how Japan handled its transition. The country didn’t talk about population decline until it was impossible to ignore. Before that, the story was always framed through housing pressure in Tokyo even as rural areas hollowed out.
My View
The U.S. isn’t heading for a national housing shortage. It’s heading for housing polarization with tight supply and high prices in a handful of economic magnets, and growing vacancy in places that struggle to attract young workers or new industries.
As demographics shift and Boomers release millions of units, those homes will not magically solve affordability in New York, Austin, Denver, or Seattle. They’ll mostly end up in regions already losing population.
Policy will follow the people. Investment dollars will follow the jobs. Rural decline accelerates, metro hubs thicken, and the empty home map expands even as the housing shortage narrative stays front and center.
Not because it’s true in a literal sense but because it’s the cleanest way to manage a slow demographic turn without spooking the country.
The U.S. is starting the same demographic chapter Japan opened a generation ago. Anyone reading the signs can see where it leads.
tweet
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never lose faith crypto guys, maybe the women of your life is still in production https://t.co/UcuaZhyTnP
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never lose faith crypto guys, maybe the women of your life is still in production https://t.co/UcuaZhyTnP
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memenodes
crypto bros would have $3 MILLION in crypto and choose to live like this https://t.co/PlCN1WY2K6
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crypto bros would have $3 MILLION in crypto and choose to live like this https://t.co/PlCN1WY2K6
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crypto guys will live like this to save an extra $500 every month for the dip https://t.co/WNAMS6ROjY
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crypto guys will live like this to save an extra $500 every month for the dip https://t.co/WNAMS6ROjY
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realizing I go to work everyday at 6 AM because I was too shy to dance on tiktok in 2020 https://t.co/5wCw9o5REj
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realizing I go to work everyday at 6 AM because I was too shy to dance on tiktok in 2020 https://t.co/5wCw9o5REj
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You choose crypto as solid investment but you need to work on weekends as well https://t.co/4Vx7fhB5Px
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You choose crypto as solid investment but you need to work on weekends as well https://t.co/4Vx7fhB5Px
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Offshore
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memenodes
With inflation at 6.9%, you lose half your money in 8 years.
The only way to outperform that consistently, that I have found, is crypto.
Just this year, I’ve already lost half my money. https://t.co/WEXqL6Ttxw
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With inflation at 6.9%, you lose half your money in 8 years.
The only way to outperform that consistently, that I have found, is crypto.
Just this year, I’ve already lost half my money. https://t.co/WEXqL6Ttxw
tweet