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EndGame Macro
The 10 Year Is Calling the Bluff And What the Market Sees That Policy Can’t Smooth Over
The 10 year is the bond market’s way of pricing the next decade. Not the next CPI print, not the next rate announcement, but the broader arc of where the economy is heading. It reflects two things at once…
https://t.co/yTvBuU5FhU investors expect short term rates to average out over time, and
https://t.co/EPhO4pjrxN much extra compensation they want for tying up capital in a world that feels uncertain.
So when the 10 year drifts above Fed Funds, it’s not saying, rates are being cut, so yields should fall. It’s the market hinting that something deeper is pulling on the long end, something that doesn’t automatically follow the front end.
A Market Asking for a Cushion
You can see it in the spread where the 10 year Fed Funds gap is now the widest it’s been since January. If investors felt the coming decade was smooth and predictable, the 10 year would slide more naturally toward the short end. Instead, it’s holding firm and even rising which tells you people want protection. Protection against relentless issuance, political uncertainty, global tension, and the simple reality that short term policy can move down while long term borrowing costs stay sticky.
The message is basically… “I’ll lend, but I want insurance.”
My Read on What’s Happening Right Now
This is a slow shift in mindset. Markets are transitioning from a world that focused almost entirely on immediate policy to one wrestling with deeper structural forces like massive refinancing needs, rising deficits, geopolitical fragmentation, and the aftereffects of the balance sheet shrinking.
And underneath it all sits the refinancing squeeze across government, corporate, and commercial real estate debt. A huge wave of obligations issued when money was cheap is now running into a world where money costs something again. That stress doesn’t explode on impact, it accumulates. It tightens credit conditions, increases bankruptcies, and pushes lenders and borrowers into more cautious behavior.
The short end follows the rate path.
The long end follows the system itself and the system is signaling that risk hasn’t disappeared just because policy is easing.
So the 10 year sitting above Fed Funds isn’t bullish or bearish in isolation; it’s simply honest. It’s telling us we’re entering a phase where policy can loosen, but financial conditions don’t loosen as smoothly. Time and the cost of carrying it is getting more expensive again.
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The 10 Year Is Calling the Bluff And What the Market Sees That Policy Can’t Smooth Over
The 10 year is the bond market’s way of pricing the next decade. Not the next CPI print, not the next rate announcement, but the broader arc of where the economy is heading. It reflects two things at once…
https://t.co/yTvBuU5FhU investors expect short term rates to average out over time, and
https://t.co/EPhO4pjrxN much extra compensation they want for tying up capital in a world that feels uncertain.
So when the 10 year drifts above Fed Funds, it’s not saying, rates are being cut, so yields should fall. It’s the market hinting that something deeper is pulling on the long end, something that doesn’t automatically follow the front end.
A Market Asking for a Cushion
You can see it in the spread where the 10 year Fed Funds gap is now the widest it’s been since January. If investors felt the coming decade was smooth and predictable, the 10 year would slide more naturally toward the short end. Instead, it’s holding firm and even rising which tells you people want protection. Protection against relentless issuance, political uncertainty, global tension, and the simple reality that short term policy can move down while long term borrowing costs stay sticky.
The message is basically… “I’ll lend, but I want insurance.”
My Read on What’s Happening Right Now
This is a slow shift in mindset. Markets are transitioning from a world that focused almost entirely on immediate policy to one wrestling with deeper structural forces like massive refinancing needs, rising deficits, geopolitical fragmentation, and the aftereffects of the balance sheet shrinking.
And underneath it all sits the refinancing squeeze across government, corporate, and commercial real estate debt. A huge wave of obligations issued when money was cheap is now running into a world where money costs something again. That stress doesn’t explode on impact, it accumulates. It tightens credit conditions, increases bankruptcies, and pushes lenders and borrowers into more cautious behavior.
The short end follows the rate path.
The long end follows the system itself and the system is signaling that risk hasn’t disappeared just because policy is easing.
So the 10 year sitting above Fed Funds isn’t bullish or bearish in isolation; it’s simply honest. It’s telling us we’re entering a phase where policy can loosen, but financial conditions don’t loosen as smoothly. Time and the cost of carrying it is getting more expensive again.
10yr Yield-Fed Funds spread is now at the highest level since January '25 https://t.co/Btb2d0tAzV tweet
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WealthyReadings
$ALAB is giving us all the signs it wants to explode.
"The next frontier isn’t “more GPUs”, it’s better use of the hardware we have and will have, both on software & hardware.
Hardware optimization is what $ALAB does."
This stock will be the next big AI winner, and no one speaks about it 👇
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$ALAB is giving us all the signs it wants to explode.
"The next frontier isn’t “more GPUs”, it’s better use of the hardware we have and will have, both on software & hardware.
Hardware optimization is what $ALAB does."
This stock will be the next big AI winner, and no one speaks about it 👇
$ALAB is setting up to be one of the major winners of the next AI narrative: optimization.
The bulk of compute has already been deployed. The next frontier isn’t “more GPUs”, it’s better use of the hardware we have and will have, both on software & hardware.
Hardware optimization is what $ALAB does.
They build the invisible backbone of AI data centers, systems that move data faster, smoother and with far less waste. They eliminate the bottlenecks that slow AI down.
Why this matters:
🔹 Every AI giant is now obsessed with efficiency, energy is capped and data centers can’t scale fast enough so they need to optimize.
🔹 Bigger models + more demand = more data movement = more & larger bottlenecks.
🔹 Every second of compute lost or non optimized costs companies more than the hardware to fix that situation.
🔹 The future is about squeezing every ounce of performance out of existing infrastructure
That's what $ALAB proposes.
As AI continues to scale, the next winners won’t be the companies selling volume anymore, they’ll be the ones unlocking above average optimization.
The leap from “great” to “perfect” is where the next trillion-dollar value will be created. And only a few specialized players can deliver that.
$ALAB might be one of the biggest opportunities in that narrative.
Details below 👇 tweet
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EndGame Macro
Sub V filings used to be included into Chapter 11 bankruptcy’s prior to 2020…
Everyone look into the total Chapter 11 bankruptcy’s year by year during the Great Financial Crisis for 2008,2009,2010.
Then get the Chapter 11 bankruptcy’s for past 3 years and add back the Sub V filings for the past 3 years like it used to be and tell me what you see for 2023, 2024 and 2025.
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Sub V filings used to be included into Chapter 11 bankruptcy’s prior to 2020…
Everyone look into the total Chapter 11 bankruptcy’s year by year during the Great Financial Crisis for 2008,2009,2010.
Then get the Chapter 11 bankruptcy’s for past 3 years and add back the Sub V filings for the past 3 years like it used to be and tell me what you see for 2023, 2024 and 2025.
🚨US bankruptcies are running at a pace consistent with a RECESSION:
US large bankruptcies reached 717 year-to-date, the most in 15 YEARS.
This is already higher than all full years since 2010, and above the last decade average.
In November, 62 big corporations went bankrupt.
Even large US companies ate struggling in this economy. tweet
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EndGame Macro
The Chart That Explains Why Regulators Are Quietly Rearranging the Safety Nets
This chart shows cash as a share of total assets for small banks and big banks over the last 15+ years. When those lines rise, banks have slack. When they fall, the system is running tighter.
What stands out now is how both groups have drifted back toward the leaner levels we saw before COVID. Big banks, especially, have watched their cash cushions fade as the cycle shifted, rates stayed high, and deposits reshuffled. Small banks aren’t collapsing, but they’re not sitting on excess liquidity either and for them, running with less cash makes every hit from commercial real estate or refinancing pressure feel a little heavier.
Why It Matters Right Now
This is where the regulatory changes fit perfectly. The eSLR loosening for the biggest banks basically gives them more room on their balance sheets by reducing how much capital they need to hold against total assets, regardless of risk. In practice, it means they can step in during periods of heavy Treasury issuance or market stress without immediately bumping into a regulatory ceiling. It’s a way of saying, that they need them available. And don’t let capital rules keep you on the sidelines.
On the other side, the lowered CBLR for community banks drops the required leverage ratio from 9% to 8% and gives them a longer grace window if they fall below the threshold. That may sound small, but for smaller banks especially those tied up in CRE loans or dealing with rising refinancing costs that extra percent of flexibility is meaningful. It means they don’t have to shrink their balance sheets or cut lending right when their local economies can’t afford it.
This chart is saying the system is tight, and tight systems don’t have the luxury of absorbing stress without help. The rule changes are the quiet acknowledgement of that reality. They’re setting up the scaffolding ahead of time, the kind you build when you want things to bend for a few years, not snap all at once.
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The Chart That Explains Why Regulators Are Quietly Rearranging the Safety Nets
This chart shows cash as a share of total assets for small banks and big banks over the last 15+ years. When those lines rise, banks have slack. When they fall, the system is running tighter.
What stands out now is how both groups have drifted back toward the leaner levels we saw before COVID. Big banks, especially, have watched their cash cushions fade as the cycle shifted, rates stayed high, and deposits reshuffled. Small banks aren’t collapsing, but they’re not sitting on excess liquidity either and for them, running with less cash makes every hit from commercial real estate or refinancing pressure feel a little heavier.
Why It Matters Right Now
This is where the regulatory changes fit perfectly. The eSLR loosening for the biggest banks basically gives them more room on their balance sheets by reducing how much capital they need to hold against total assets, regardless of risk. In practice, it means they can step in during periods of heavy Treasury issuance or market stress without immediately bumping into a regulatory ceiling. It’s a way of saying, that they need them available. And don’t let capital rules keep you on the sidelines.
On the other side, the lowered CBLR for community banks drops the required leverage ratio from 9% to 8% and gives them a longer grace window if they fall below the threshold. That may sound small, but for smaller banks especially those tied up in CRE loans or dealing with rising refinancing costs that extra percent of flexibility is meaningful. It means they don’t have to shrink their balance sheets or cut lending right when their local economies can’t afford it.
This chart is saying the system is tight, and tight systems don’t have the luxury of absorbing stress without help. The rule changes are the quiet acknowledgement of that reality. They’re setting up the scaffolding ahead of time, the kind you build when you want things to bend for a few years, not snap all at once.
Liquidity constraints at both large and small banks are likely reflecting the downward movement of bank reserves; definitely worth keeping an eye on in coming months since this will hit critical levels soon if the current sharp downward trend in relative liquidity continues: https://t.co/DFHeFCuOgB tweet
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WealthyReadings
I did not have a $DUOL x Genshin Impact partnership on my bingo card.
That being said, why not?
Duolingo isn't just a teaching method, it's a game & it has a lot of similarities with Genshin Impact in terms of player acquisition & retention.
Soon to be a gacha full of waifus. https://t.co/6k5oMI9Jw5
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I did not have a $DUOL x Genshin Impact partnership on my bingo card.
That being said, why not?
Duolingo isn't just a teaching method, it's a game & it has a lot of similarities with Genshin Impact in terms of player acquisition & retention.
Soon to be a gacha full of waifus. https://t.co/6k5oMI9Jw5
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EndGame Macro
Canada May Look Like It’s Turning But The U.S. Labor Market Doesn’t Always Follow on Cue
The chart is basically pointing out that Canada and the U.S. tend to move through the job market cycle together. When demand cools, both soften. When things pick back up, both improve. That part of the relationship is real. But the timing is never perfect. Canada swings harder because its economy is more rate sensitive, more housing driven, and more exposed to commodities. Sometimes it turns first, sometimes it lags, sometimes the two economies simply drift apart for a bit.
Canada’s recent move lower is interesting. But it’s not a guarantee the U.S. follows right behind it. At best, it’s a nudge, not a signal.
What History Tells You About Rate Cuts and Unemployment
The these charts below I pulled up show something we forget in the moment that when the Fed starts a true easing cycle, unemployment usually doesn’t fall right away. It rises. Not because the cuts make things worse, but because the Fed only cuts aggressively when the turn in the labor market is already underway.
You can see it in the early 2000s. Rates came down fast, but unemployment kept rising before it finally rolled over. Same story in the GFC. Policy went to zero in a hurry, but job losses kept piling up before the bottom formed. The labor market responds with a lag, and cutting rates doesn’t skip that part of the process.
My Read on What’s Happening Now
Canada improving might end up being a temporary blip. The better gauge for where the U.S. goes next is what’s happening underneath the headline numbers like hours worked, continuing claims, and the steady rise in layoffs that don’t always hit the front page. If those stay soft, the historical pattern tends to hold that when easing begins, unemployment often moves up before it moves down.
It’s not the most exciting conclusion, but it’s the honest one. The chart shows the relationship. History shows the rhythm. And the present looks like a moment where we should respect both.
tweet
Canada May Look Like It’s Turning But The U.S. Labor Market Doesn’t Always Follow on Cue
The chart is basically pointing out that Canada and the U.S. tend to move through the job market cycle together. When demand cools, both soften. When things pick back up, both improve. That part of the relationship is real. But the timing is never perfect. Canada swings harder because its economy is more rate sensitive, more housing driven, and more exposed to commodities. Sometimes it turns first, sometimes it lags, sometimes the two economies simply drift apart for a bit.
Canada’s recent move lower is interesting. But it’s not a guarantee the U.S. follows right behind it. At best, it’s a nudge, not a signal.
What History Tells You About Rate Cuts and Unemployment
The these charts below I pulled up show something we forget in the moment that when the Fed starts a true easing cycle, unemployment usually doesn’t fall right away. It rises. Not because the cuts make things worse, but because the Fed only cuts aggressively when the turn in the labor market is already underway.
You can see it in the early 2000s. Rates came down fast, but unemployment kept rising before it finally rolled over. Same story in the GFC. Policy went to zero in a hurry, but job losses kept piling up before the bottom formed. The labor market responds with a lag, and cutting rates doesn’t skip that part of the process.
My Read on What’s Happening Now
Canada improving might end up being a temporary blip. The better gauge for where the U.S. goes next is what’s happening underneath the headline numbers like hours worked, continuing claims, and the steady rise in layoffs that don’t always hit the front page. If those stay soft, the historical pattern tends to hold that when easing begins, unemployment often moves up before it moves down.
It’s not the most exciting conclusion, but it’s the honest one. The chart shows the relationship. History shows the rhythm. And the present looks like a moment where we should respect both.
How cool is this? The US unemployment rate could go DOWN. Look at Canada, where they have reported notable declines in unemployment in both October and November. Logically, Canada and the US move together. It points to the US unemployment rate falling. We love macro around here. https://t.co/vBIKRavMKO tweet
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App Economy Insights
US TV Time Market Share:
⚫️ YouTube: 13%
🔴 Netflix: 8%
🔵 Warner Bros.: 1%
Overall streaming: ~46% in October.
Source: Nielsen (excl. YouTube TV). https://t.co/4AK1YNalpv
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US TV Time Market Share:
⚫️ YouTube: 13%
🔴 Netflix: 8%
🔵 Warner Bros.: 1%
Overall streaming: ~46% in October.
Source: Nielsen (excl. YouTube TV). https://t.co/4AK1YNalpv
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