Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
We published this report, when a Carvana bankruptcy looked imminent.
$CVNA has now risen 8,900% since then.
That's not a typo.
8,900% https://t.co/XnUsqNFN3D
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We published this report, when a Carvana bankruptcy looked imminent.
$CVNA has now risen 8,900% since then.
That's not a typo.
8,900% https://t.co/XnUsqNFN3D
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Offshore
Video
memenodes
if i ever hit the lottery i won't tell anybody but there will be signs https://t.co/1pqwh0lYIT
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if i ever hit the lottery i won't tell anybody but there will be signs https://t.co/1pqwh0lYIT
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Offshore
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memenodes
How I look every time my parents introduce me to another relative I’ve never met in my life https://t.co/o2UsMiYPJq
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How I look every time my parents introduce me to another relative I’ve never met in my life https://t.co/o2UsMiYPJq
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Too Much Money, Too Few Deals And The Spread Compression Problem
This is the price of private credit risk compressing. In 2022 into early 2023, private lenders were getting paid 600–650 basis points over the floating benchmark on a typical deal. Since then, both the average and the median spread have slid steadily, and by 2025 the median is under 500. Translation: borrowers are getting cheaper terms, and lenders are giving up margin to win deals.
Why this is happening
Private credit is crowded now. There’s a lot of fresh money that has to get deployed, and managers don’t get rewarded for sitting in cash and waiting for a perfect pitch. At the same time, more funding channels have reopened so banks inch back in, syndicated markets cooperate, sponsors can shop terms and whenever borrowers have options, spreads are the first thing to get competed away.
The other quiet driver is that all in yields can still look attractive even with thinner spreads if the base rate is doing a lot of the work. So lenders convince themselves they can live with less credit margin, especially if they can claw some return back through fees, structure, and call protection.
The uncomfortable part is this is what late cycle confidence looks like in pricing. The risk didn’t disappear. there’s just less cushion if growth softens or defaults turn back up.
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Too Much Money, Too Few Deals And The Spread Compression Problem
This is the price of private credit risk compressing. In 2022 into early 2023, private lenders were getting paid 600–650 basis points over the floating benchmark on a typical deal. Since then, both the average and the median spread have slid steadily, and by 2025 the median is under 500. Translation: borrowers are getting cheaper terms, and lenders are giving up margin to win deals.
Why this is happening
Private credit is crowded now. There’s a lot of fresh money that has to get deployed, and managers don’t get rewarded for sitting in cash and waiting for a perfect pitch. At the same time, more funding channels have reopened so banks inch back in, syndicated markets cooperate, sponsors can shop terms and whenever borrowers have options, spreads are the first thing to get competed away.
The other quiet driver is that all in yields can still look attractive even with thinner spreads if the base rate is doing a lot of the work. So lenders convince themselves they can live with less credit margin, especially if they can claw some return back through fees, structure, and call protection.
The uncomfortable part is this is what late cycle confidence looks like in pricing. The risk didn’t disappear. there’s just less cushion if growth softens or defaults turn back up.
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Quiet Warning Shot in the Call Money Curve
That call money and interbank rate is basically the price of overnight dollars inside the banking system. In plain English…when the Fed is tightening, overnight money gets expensive and this line climbs; when the Fed is done tightening (or something starts breaking), it peaks and starts sliding because policy is easing and liquidity stress is receding.
So the big move up in 2022–2023 is the tightening cycle showing up in the plumbing. The flat stretch into 2024 was simply the higher for longer phase. And the drop through 2025 is the pivot phase…rate cuts, a shift in expectations, and a funding market that no longer needs to pay peak prices to borrow overnight.
The pattern at peaks, and what it usually lines up with
The most important thing in the long chart isn’t the day to day wiggles, it’s that major peaks tend to happen right before the economy rolls. Not because the overnight rate is predicting anything mystical, but because the peak is usually the moment policy is most restrictive, and the rollover is often the moment the Fed starts reacting to weakening growth, rising credit cracks, or financial stress.
Historically, those peaks cluster around late cycle moments where credit gets tight, refinancing windows narrow, floating rate borrowers start to feel it, and something in the real economy (housing, capex, inventories, jobs) finally buckles with a lag.
Does it coincide with recession? Often, yes but not always. The cleanest way to say it is…
• Pretty much every recession has been preceded by a peak and rollover in short term rates like this.
• But not every peak and rollover produces a recession, sometimes it’s a mid cycle insurance cut and you get a slowdown without an official contraction.
If you take the post war period and count the clear tightening cycle peaks (ignoring tiny blips), you’re looking at roughly a three in four hit rate, call it about 70% to 80% of the time that a meaningful peak and rollover is followed by an NBER recession within the next year or so. The exact percentage depends on how strict you are about what qualifies as a peak, and what window you give it.
My Read
A falling overnight interbank rate is not a victory lap, it’s the system shifting from restraining demand to trying to keep things from tightening on their own. This is the point in the cycle where, historically, the calm gives way and the lagged damage finally breaks through and the current economic backdrop makes that outcome feel more like inevitability than risk.
tweet
The Quiet Warning Shot in the Call Money Curve
That call money and interbank rate is basically the price of overnight dollars inside the banking system. In plain English…when the Fed is tightening, overnight money gets expensive and this line climbs; when the Fed is done tightening (or something starts breaking), it peaks and starts sliding because policy is easing and liquidity stress is receding.
So the big move up in 2022–2023 is the tightening cycle showing up in the plumbing. The flat stretch into 2024 was simply the higher for longer phase. And the drop through 2025 is the pivot phase…rate cuts, a shift in expectations, and a funding market that no longer needs to pay peak prices to borrow overnight.
The pattern at peaks, and what it usually lines up with
The most important thing in the long chart isn’t the day to day wiggles, it’s that major peaks tend to happen right before the economy rolls. Not because the overnight rate is predicting anything mystical, but because the peak is usually the moment policy is most restrictive, and the rollover is often the moment the Fed starts reacting to weakening growth, rising credit cracks, or financial stress.
Historically, those peaks cluster around late cycle moments where credit gets tight, refinancing windows narrow, floating rate borrowers start to feel it, and something in the real economy (housing, capex, inventories, jobs) finally buckles with a lag.
Does it coincide with recession? Often, yes but not always. The cleanest way to say it is…
• Pretty much every recession has been preceded by a peak and rollover in short term rates like this.
• But not every peak and rollover produces a recession, sometimes it’s a mid cycle insurance cut and you get a slowdown without an official contraction.
If you take the post war period and count the clear tightening cycle peaks (ignoring tiny blips), you’re looking at roughly a three in four hit rate, call it about 70% to 80% of the time that a meaningful peak and rollover is followed by an NBER recession within the next year or so. The exact percentage depends on how strict you are about what qualifies as a peak, and what window you give it.
My Read
A falling overnight interbank rate is not a victory lap, it’s the system shifting from restraining demand to trying to keep things from tightening on their own. This is the point in the cycle where, historically, the calm gives way and the lagged damage finally breaks through and the current economic backdrop makes that outcome feel more like inevitability than risk.
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EndGame Macro
RT @leadlagreport: You know how I always say we’re fucked?
It’s time to find a way to profit from it.
Might involve the Yen.
And XRP.
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RT @leadlagreport: You know how I always say we’re fucked?
It’s time to find a way to profit from it.
Might involve the Yen.
And XRP.
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Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
If your default relationship with yourself is contempt, you’ll sabotage the very life you’re trying to build. Not because the world is cruel, but because an inner voice that constantly undercuts you quietly rewrites your choices…what you apply for, what you attempt, what you tolerate, what you walk away from when it gets hard.
Clinically, this is the boring but brutal part. Your brain treats your self talk like a running set of predictions. If the prediction is “I’m not that person,” you’ll avoid reps, you’ll interpret setbacks as proof, you’ll conserve effort to protect yourself, and you’ll call it realism. Cognitive behavioral therapy didn’t become a cornerstone of modern psychology because affirmations are magical; it did because those automatic thoughts shape mood, stress response, attention, and behavior and behavior compounds.
And this is where people get talent wrong. Sure, there are real differences in temperament and aptitude. But what looks like natural ability from a distance is often just unseen accumulation…the ugly first drafts, the quiet days of studying, the reps nobody clapped for, the discipline to be bad at something long enough to get good. Confidence isn’t a personality trait as much as it’s a pattern of keeping promises to yourself.
Talk yourself into what you want to become. Not with delusion, but with allegiance. Let your inner voice sound like a coach who expects more from you because it believes you can give more. Don’t doubt yourself into a smaller life.
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If your default relationship with yourself is contempt, you’ll sabotage the very life you’re trying to build. Not because the world is cruel, but because an inner voice that constantly undercuts you quietly rewrites your choices…what you apply for, what you attempt, what you tolerate, what you walk away from when it gets hard.
Clinically, this is the boring but brutal part. Your brain treats your self talk like a running set of predictions. If the prediction is “I’m not that person,” you’ll avoid reps, you’ll interpret setbacks as proof, you’ll conserve effort to protect yourself, and you’ll call it realism. Cognitive behavioral therapy didn’t become a cornerstone of modern psychology because affirmations are magical; it did because those automatic thoughts shape mood, stress response, attention, and behavior and behavior compounds.
And this is where people get talent wrong. Sure, there are real differences in temperament and aptitude. But what looks like natural ability from a distance is often just unseen accumulation…the ugly first drafts, the quiet days of studying, the reps nobody clapped for, the discipline to be bad at something long enough to get good. Confidence isn’t a personality trait as much as it’s a pattern of keeping promises to yourself.
Talk yourself into what you want to become. Not with delusion, but with allegiance. Let your inner voice sound like a coach who expects more from you because it believes you can give more. Don’t doubt yourself into a smaller life.
No one is perfect, but if you don't think highly of yourself, you will ruin your life. tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Two charts, one message…Money got expensive, and now the bill is arriving
The first chart, the call money interbank rate is basically the heartbeat of the financial system. It’s the overnight price of dollars between banks. When the Fed tightens, this thing shoots up. When the system starts to feel the strain or the Fed begins easing, it rolls over. Sitting around 4.1% now tells you the max tightening phase is already behind us, and the short end of the market is being walked down.
The second chart, M2 velocity isn’t literally how fast people spend money. It’s a ratio of nominal GDP divided by M2. It rises when economic output grows faster than the money supply, and it falls when people hoard cash or when M2 balloons faster than the economy. What you’re seeing now is velocity recovering from the COVID collapse and then flattening out once policy stayed tight long enough to cool demand.
Why these two lines move together, and why it matters
These charts correlate because they’re both reacting to the same underlying forces of policy, credit creation, and how much risk the private sector is willing to take.
• In 2020, rates went to zero and M2 exploded. People sat on cash, activity lagged, and velocity collapsed.
• In 2022–2024, rates ripped higher while M2 growth slowed. Nominal spending kept going. That combination mechanically pushed velocity up.
• By mid-2024 and into 2025, both charts started flattening and rolling because the cycle shifted…tight money finally did its job, demand cooled, and now funding costs are easing not because everything is fine, but because the economy is losing momentum underneath.
So yes, they’re connected. Velocity isn’t causing the call money rate to fall, and the call money rate isn’t causing velocity to flatten. They’re both responding to the same turning point in the economy.
And here’s what it means for all of us
If rates keep easing and velocity doesn’t pick back up, that usually means cheaper money is meeting a cautious, slowing private sector with more saving, fewer transactions, and weaker economic force behind the scenes. It’s the setup you see when the cycle transitions from inflation heat to growth fatigue, long before the headline data admits it.
tweet
Two charts, one message…Money got expensive, and now the bill is arriving
The first chart, the call money interbank rate is basically the heartbeat of the financial system. It’s the overnight price of dollars between banks. When the Fed tightens, this thing shoots up. When the system starts to feel the strain or the Fed begins easing, it rolls over. Sitting around 4.1% now tells you the max tightening phase is already behind us, and the short end of the market is being walked down.
The second chart, M2 velocity isn’t literally how fast people spend money. It’s a ratio of nominal GDP divided by M2. It rises when economic output grows faster than the money supply, and it falls when people hoard cash or when M2 balloons faster than the economy. What you’re seeing now is velocity recovering from the COVID collapse and then flattening out once policy stayed tight long enough to cool demand.
Why these two lines move together, and why it matters
These charts correlate because they’re both reacting to the same underlying forces of policy, credit creation, and how much risk the private sector is willing to take.
• In 2020, rates went to zero and M2 exploded. People sat on cash, activity lagged, and velocity collapsed.
• In 2022–2024, rates ripped higher while M2 growth slowed. Nominal spending kept going. That combination mechanically pushed velocity up.
• By mid-2024 and into 2025, both charts started flattening and rolling because the cycle shifted…tight money finally did its job, demand cooled, and now funding costs are easing not because everything is fine, but because the economy is losing momentum underneath.
So yes, they’re connected. Velocity isn’t causing the call money rate to fall, and the call money rate isn’t causing velocity to flatten. They’re both responding to the same turning point in the economy.
And here’s what it means for all of us
If rates keep easing and velocity doesn’t pick back up, that usually means cheaper money is meeting a cautious, slowing private sector with more saving, fewer transactions, and weaker economic force behind the scenes. It’s the setup you see when the cycle transitions from inflation heat to growth fatigue, long before the headline data admits it.
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Adobe is accelerating its share buybacks.
They have reduced their share count by 5.6% over the last 12 months.
$ADBE https://t.co/ZdaBO6NmfB
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Adobe is accelerating its share buybacks.
They have reduced their share count by 5.6% over the last 12 months.
$ADBE https://t.co/ZdaBO6NmfB
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