Offshore
Video
memenodes
My ancestors who had to hunt and fight wild animals for food watching me have a panic attack while trading leverage https://t.co/ZVlBPrUWYi
tweet
My ancestors who had to hunt and fight wild animals for food watching me have a panic attack while trading leverage https://t.co/ZVlBPrUWYi
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
We published this report, when a Carvana bankruptcy looked imminent.
$CVNA has now risen 8,900% since then.
That's not a typo.
8,900% https://t.co/XnUsqNFN3D
tweet
We published this report, when a Carvana bankruptcy looked imminent.
$CVNA has now risen 8,900% since then.
That's not a typo.
8,900% https://t.co/XnUsqNFN3D
tweet
Offshore
Video
memenodes
if i ever hit the lottery i won't tell anybody but there will be signs https://t.co/1pqwh0lYIT
tweet
if i ever hit the lottery i won't tell anybody but there will be signs https://t.co/1pqwh0lYIT
tweet
Offshore
Photo
memenodes
How I look every time my parents introduce me to another relative I’ve never met in my life https://t.co/o2UsMiYPJq
tweet
How I look every time my parents introduce me to another relative I’ve never met in my life https://t.co/o2UsMiYPJq
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Too Much Money, Too Few Deals And The Spread Compression Problem
This is the price of private credit risk compressing. In 2022 into early 2023, private lenders were getting paid 600–650 basis points over the floating benchmark on a typical deal. Since then, both the average and the median spread have slid steadily, and by 2025 the median is under 500. Translation: borrowers are getting cheaper terms, and lenders are giving up margin to win deals.
Why this is happening
Private credit is crowded now. There’s a lot of fresh money that has to get deployed, and managers don’t get rewarded for sitting in cash and waiting for a perfect pitch. At the same time, more funding channels have reopened so banks inch back in, syndicated markets cooperate, sponsors can shop terms and whenever borrowers have options, spreads are the first thing to get competed away.
The other quiet driver is that all in yields can still look attractive even with thinner spreads if the base rate is doing a lot of the work. So lenders convince themselves they can live with less credit margin, especially if they can claw some return back through fees, structure, and call protection.
The uncomfortable part is this is what late cycle confidence looks like in pricing. The risk didn’t disappear. there’s just less cushion if growth softens or defaults turn back up.
tweet
Too Much Money, Too Few Deals And The Spread Compression Problem
This is the price of private credit risk compressing. In 2022 into early 2023, private lenders were getting paid 600–650 basis points over the floating benchmark on a typical deal. Since then, both the average and the median spread have slid steadily, and by 2025 the median is under 500. Translation: borrowers are getting cheaper terms, and lenders are giving up margin to win deals.
Why this is happening
Private credit is crowded now. There’s a lot of fresh money that has to get deployed, and managers don’t get rewarded for sitting in cash and waiting for a perfect pitch. At the same time, more funding channels have reopened so banks inch back in, syndicated markets cooperate, sponsors can shop terms and whenever borrowers have options, spreads are the first thing to get competed away.
The other quiet driver is that all in yields can still look attractive even with thinner spreads if the base rate is doing a lot of the work. So lenders convince themselves they can live with less credit margin, especially if they can claw some return back through fees, structure, and call protection.
The uncomfortable part is this is what late cycle confidence looks like in pricing. The risk didn’t disappear. there’s just less cushion if growth softens or defaults turn back up.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
The Quiet Warning Shot in the Call Money Curve
That call money and interbank rate is basically the price of overnight dollars inside the banking system. In plain English…when the Fed is tightening, overnight money gets expensive and this line climbs; when the Fed is done tightening (or something starts breaking), it peaks and starts sliding because policy is easing and liquidity stress is receding.
So the big move up in 2022–2023 is the tightening cycle showing up in the plumbing. The flat stretch into 2024 was simply the higher for longer phase. And the drop through 2025 is the pivot phase…rate cuts, a shift in expectations, and a funding market that no longer needs to pay peak prices to borrow overnight.
The pattern at peaks, and what it usually lines up with
The most important thing in the long chart isn’t the day to day wiggles, it’s that major peaks tend to happen right before the economy rolls. Not because the overnight rate is predicting anything mystical, but because the peak is usually the moment policy is most restrictive, and the rollover is often the moment the Fed starts reacting to weakening growth, rising credit cracks, or financial stress.
Historically, those peaks cluster around late cycle moments where credit gets tight, refinancing windows narrow, floating rate borrowers start to feel it, and something in the real economy (housing, capex, inventories, jobs) finally buckles with a lag.
Does it coincide with recession? Often, yes but not always. The cleanest way to say it is…
• Pretty much every recession has been preceded by a peak and rollover in short term rates like this.
• But not every peak and rollover produces a recession, sometimes it’s a mid cycle insurance cut and you get a slowdown without an official contraction.
If you take the post war period and count the clear tightening cycle peaks (ignoring tiny blips), you’re looking at roughly a three in four hit rate, call it about 70% to 80% of the time that a meaningful peak and rollover is followed by an NBER recession within the next year or so. The exact percentage depends on how strict you are about what qualifies as a peak, and what window you give it.
My Read
A falling overnight interbank rate is not a victory lap, it’s the system shifting from restraining demand to trying to keep things from tightening on their own. This is the point in the cycle where, historically, the calm gives way and the lagged damage finally breaks through and the current economic backdrop makes that outcome feel more like inevitability than risk.
tweet
The Quiet Warning Shot in the Call Money Curve
That call money and interbank rate is basically the price of overnight dollars inside the banking system. In plain English…when the Fed is tightening, overnight money gets expensive and this line climbs; when the Fed is done tightening (or something starts breaking), it peaks and starts sliding because policy is easing and liquidity stress is receding.
So the big move up in 2022–2023 is the tightening cycle showing up in the plumbing. The flat stretch into 2024 was simply the higher for longer phase. And the drop through 2025 is the pivot phase…rate cuts, a shift in expectations, and a funding market that no longer needs to pay peak prices to borrow overnight.
The pattern at peaks, and what it usually lines up with
The most important thing in the long chart isn’t the day to day wiggles, it’s that major peaks tend to happen right before the economy rolls. Not because the overnight rate is predicting anything mystical, but because the peak is usually the moment policy is most restrictive, and the rollover is often the moment the Fed starts reacting to weakening growth, rising credit cracks, or financial stress.
Historically, those peaks cluster around late cycle moments where credit gets tight, refinancing windows narrow, floating rate borrowers start to feel it, and something in the real economy (housing, capex, inventories, jobs) finally buckles with a lag.
Does it coincide with recession? Often, yes but not always. The cleanest way to say it is…
• Pretty much every recession has been preceded by a peak and rollover in short term rates like this.
• But not every peak and rollover produces a recession, sometimes it’s a mid cycle insurance cut and you get a slowdown without an official contraction.
If you take the post war period and count the clear tightening cycle peaks (ignoring tiny blips), you’re looking at roughly a three in four hit rate, call it about 70% to 80% of the time that a meaningful peak and rollover is followed by an NBER recession within the next year or so. The exact percentage depends on how strict you are about what qualifies as a peak, and what window you give it.
My Read
A falling overnight interbank rate is not a victory lap, it’s the system shifting from restraining demand to trying to keep things from tightening on their own. This is the point in the cycle where, historically, the calm gives way and the lagged damage finally breaks through and the current economic backdrop makes that outcome feel more like inevitability than risk.
tweet
EndGame Macro
RT @leadlagreport: You know how I always say we’re fucked?
It’s time to find a way to profit from it.
Might involve the Yen.
And XRP.
tweet
RT @leadlagreport: You know how I always say we’re fucked?
It’s time to find a way to profit from it.
Might involve the Yen.
And XRP.
tweet