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EndGame Macro
Forget the Headlines The 3 Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth.
The 3 month Treasury is basically the market’s closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate, so when it starts drifting meaningfully below that range, it’s the market’s way of saying, “We’re already looking past today’s rate and pricing where the Fed is headed next.”
Historically, it’s also one of the key pieces in recession tracking. When short rates fall while long rates stay sticky, you’re almost always in that late cycle zone where the Fed shifts from tightening to cushioning.
What It’s Telling You Right Now
Given the timing, this move isn’t subtle at all. The Fed has already cut twice this year in September and October and officially ended QT yesterday. They’ve now moved from shrinking the balance sheet to reinvesting everything into T-bills, and the market sees an extremely high likelihood of another cut in a matter of days.
That context is exactly why the 3 month hitting a new 52 week low matters. The front end is basically saying the tightening phase is over. The rate hikes are behind you and traders are now pricing in a real easing cycle, not a one off adjustment.
What jumps out most is how sharply the 3 month has fallen while the 10 year is still sitting around 4%. That’s the classic pattern you get when the Fed begins cutting into a slowing economy, not because things have stabilized, but because the pressure is already showing through the data. Bills trade below fed funds when the market thinks the Fed will have to keep going.
So the way I read it, the 3 month is the cleanest confirmation so far that the cycle has turned. The peak in cash yields is behind us. The Fed is shifting from restraint to support. And the bond market is quietly acknowledging that the economy needs that support sooner rather than later.
It’s late cycle behavior dressed up in a simple number.
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Forget the Headlines The 3 Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth.
The 3 month Treasury is basically the market’s closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate, so when it starts drifting meaningfully below that range, it’s the market’s way of saying, “We’re already looking past today’s rate and pricing where the Fed is headed next.”
Historically, it’s also one of the key pieces in recession tracking. When short rates fall while long rates stay sticky, you’re almost always in that late cycle zone where the Fed shifts from tightening to cushioning.
What It’s Telling You Right Now
Given the timing, this move isn’t subtle at all. The Fed has already cut twice this year in September and October and officially ended QT yesterday. They’ve now moved from shrinking the balance sheet to reinvesting everything into T-bills, and the market sees an extremely high likelihood of another cut in a matter of days.
That context is exactly why the 3 month hitting a new 52 week low matters. The front end is basically saying the tightening phase is over. The rate hikes are behind you and traders are now pricing in a real easing cycle, not a one off adjustment.
What jumps out most is how sharply the 3 month has fallen while the 10 year is still sitting around 4%. That’s the classic pattern you get when the Fed begins cutting into a slowing economy, not because things have stabilized, but because the pressure is already showing through the data. Bills trade below fed funds when the market thinks the Fed will have to keep going.
So the way I read it, the 3 month is the cleanest confirmation so far that the cycle has turned. The peak in cash yields is behind us. The Fed is shifting from restraint to support. And the bond market is quietly acknowledging that the economy needs that support sooner rather than later.
It’s late cycle behavior dressed up in a simple number.
3 month T-Bill…another 52 week low. https://t.co/Gp6VBD7vzd tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Tim Burchett has signed the new discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/ogqiJPLKEo
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JUST IN: Representative Tim Burchett has signed the new discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/ogqiJPLKEo
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AkhenOsiris
Anthropic:
"Claude Code reached $1 billion in run-rate revenue in only 6 months, and bringing the Bun team into Anthropic means we can build the infrastructure to compound that momentum and keep pace with the exponential growth in AI adoption."
https://t.co/SX8Ts54Z31
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Anthropic:
"Claude Code reached $1 billion in run-rate revenue in only 6 months, and bringing the Bun team into Anthropic means we can build the infrastructure to compound that momentum and keep pace with the exponential growth in AI adoption."
https://t.co/SX8Ts54Z31
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AkhenOsiris
Hotel reservations by Chinese tourists visiting Japan have dropped by more than half in recent weeks, the latest indication that deteriorating relations between Beijing and Tokyo are impacting Japan's tourism.
Hotel reservations from China between Nov. 21 and Nov. 27 plunged by 57% compared with Nov. 6 through Nov. 12, according to the booking management platform Tripla.
Overall hotel bookings have declined 9% over the same period.
The fallout stems from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's comments early in November that an invasion of Taiwan could escalate into a situation that requires Japan to mobilize its defense forces. China's response included telling citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan.
So far, there has not been a significant drop in prices. The average daily rate for reservations made in the week through Nov. 27 increased 1.1% nationwide.
However, the rate declined 9.4% in Kyoto prefecture.
Because of the holiday season, hotel unit prices in December will be "relatively high," according to a source from Imperial Hotel Osaka. Yet many hotels are taking a wait-and-see approach to their pricing strategy out of concern that the diplomatic row may become protracted.
China is crucial to Japan's tourism industry. A total of 10.22 million people came from mainland China and Hong Kong between January to October. This far surpasses the 7.66 million travelers from South Korea and the 5.63 million visitors from Taiwan.
The Kansai region, encompassing Osaka and Kyoto, once welcomed a large number of Chinese tourists. Now, the region is struggling to cope with the sudden absence of travelers.
"I believe the number of Chinese visitors has decreased by 20% to 30%," said a fish seller in Kyoto. "I think this will affect my store's sales."
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Hotel reservations by Chinese tourists visiting Japan have dropped by more than half in recent weeks, the latest indication that deteriorating relations between Beijing and Tokyo are impacting Japan's tourism.
Hotel reservations from China between Nov. 21 and Nov. 27 plunged by 57% compared with Nov. 6 through Nov. 12, according to the booking management platform Tripla.
Overall hotel bookings have declined 9% over the same period.
The fallout stems from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's comments early in November that an invasion of Taiwan could escalate into a situation that requires Japan to mobilize its defense forces. China's response included telling citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan.
So far, there has not been a significant drop in prices. The average daily rate for reservations made in the week through Nov. 27 increased 1.1% nationwide.
However, the rate declined 9.4% in Kyoto prefecture.
Because of the holiday season, hotel unit prices in December will be "relatively high," according to a source from Imperial Hotel Osaka. Yet many hotels are taking a wait-and-see approach to their pricing strategy out of concern that the diplomatic row may become protracted.
China is crucial to Japan's tourism industry. A total of 10.22 million people came from mainland China and Hong Kong between January to October. This far surpasses the 7.66 million travelers from South Korea and the 5.63 million visitors from Taiwan.
The Kansai region, encompassing Osaka and Kyoto, once welcomed a large number of Chinese tourists. Now, the region is struggling to cope with the sudden absence of travelers.
"I believe the number of Chinese visitors has decreased by 20% to 30%," said a fish seller in Kyoto. "I think this will affect my store's sales."
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Elise Stefanik will be signing the new discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/KlLKuxU5Li
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BREAKING: Representative Elise Stefanik will be signing the new discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/KlLKuxU5Li
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Lauren Boebert will be signing the new discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/kml04wYMgq
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BREAKING: Representative Lauren Boebert will be signing the new discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/kml04wYMgq
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App Economy Insights
$CRWD CrowdStrike Q3 FY26:
📊 ARR +23% Y/Y to $4.92B.
📈 Net new ARR $265M.
• Revenue +22% to $1.23B ($10M beat).
• Operating margin -6% (flat Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.96 ($0.02 beat).
• FY24 revenue ~$4.80B ($24M raise). https://t.co/ALlpcxs0Rs
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$CRWD CrowdStrike Q3 FY26:
📊 ARR +23% Y/Y to $4.92B.
📈 Net new ARR $265M.
• Revenue +22% to $1.23B ($10M beat).
• Operating margin -6% (flat Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.96 ($0.02 beat).
• FY24 revenue ~$4.80B ($24M raise). https://t.co/ALlpcxs0Rs
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Fiscal.ai
CrowdStrike just reported Q3 revenue growth of 22%, vs. estimates of 20%.
Does any SaaS company have a better revenue chart over the last 5 years?
$CRWD https://t.co/xRm9p9baAd
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CrowdStrike just reported Q3 revenue growth of 22%, vs. estimates of 20%.
Does any SaaS company have a better revenue chart over the last 5 years?
$CRWD https://t.co/xRm9p9baAd
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