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EndGame Macro
The Clock Is Ticking: Why the Fed Must Cut Faster Than Anyone Admits
This is the invoice for keeping rates too high for too long. For more than a decade, the Fed made easy money on its bond book and sent steady remittances back to Treasury. That’s why the line sits flat. But when they slammed rates to 5% while still holding trillions of low yielding QE bonds, the whole machine flipped. Interest on reserves and RRPs surged, and the Fed started losing money in real time. Since the Fed can’t go bankrupt, it just stops paying Treasury and stacks the losses in a sort of accounting purgatory. That vertical drop roughly $240 billion is money the government will never see unless the Fed earns its way out over years.
Why This Moment Is More Dangerous Than It Looks
If everything else in the economy were humming, you might chalk this up to the cost of fighting inflation. But the backdrop is weakening in all the places that matter. Auto, card, and student loan delinquencies are climbing. Office real estate is deeply stressed. Credit scores are falling nationwide. Young workers can’t find stable footing. And the 2026 refinancing wall looms: trillions of government and commercial debt that must be rolled at rates far above the ones they were born into.
This is the early outline of a demand slowdown and a potential debt deflation setup. High nominal rates in that environment don’t stabilize anything. They just make every dollar of debt heavier as incomes soften. That’s how economies quietly drift into deflationary spirals.
Why the Fed Needs to Move Faster Than Anyone Thinks
This is why they’ve already cut twice, why QT ends December 1st, and why they’re redirecting MBS runoff into T-bills. They’re trying to create just enough breathing room to prevent a funding accident while pretending everything is fine. But the truth is simple: the longer they leave rates here, the more the real economy including households, banks, and the Treasury itself buckles under the weight.
The narrative says slow, steady cuts.
The reality is they may not have that luxury.
If deflation is the real risk, they can’t wait for the data to confirm it. By the time it shows up cleanly in CPI, the damage is already done. The Fed needs to cut faster than consensus expects not to juice markets, but to keep the system from tightening itself through rising delinquencies, collapsing credit quality, and a refinancing wall that gets more dangerous with every month of high rates.
The recent flattening in the chart is the first sign the Fed knows the clock is ticking. Either they bring rates down on their own terms, or the economy will force a far uglier adjustment later.
tweet
The Clock Is Ticking: Why the Fed Must Cut Faster Than Anyone Admits
This is the invoice for keeping rates too high for too long. For more than a decade, the Fed made easy money on its bond book and sent steady remittances back to Treasury. That’s why the line sits flat. But when they slammed rates to 5% while still holding trillions of low yielding QE bonds, the whole machine flipped. Interest on reserves and RRPs surged, and the Fed started losing money in real time. Since the Fed can’t go bankrupt, it just stops paying Treasury and stacks the losses in a sort of accounting purgatory. That vertical drop roughly $240 billion is money the government will never see unless the Fed earns its way out over years.
Why This Moment Is More Dangerous Than It Looks
If everything else in the economy were humming, you might chalk this up to the cost of fighting inflation. But the backdrop is weakening in all the places that matter. Auto, card, and student loan delinquencies are climbing. Office real estate is deeply stressed. Credit scores are falling nationwide. Young workers can’t find stable footing. And the 2026 refinancing wall looms: trillions of government and commercial debt that must be rolled at rates far above the ones they were born into.
This is the early outline of a demand slowdown and a potential debt deflation setup. High nominal rates in that environment don’t stabilize anything. They just make every dollar of debt heavier as incomes soften. That’s how economies quietly drift into deflationary spirals.
Why the Fed Needs to Move Faster Than Anyone Thinks
This is why they’ve already cut twice, why QT ends December 1st, and why they’re redirecting MBS runoff into T-bills. They’re trying to create just enough breathing room to prevent a funding accident while pretending everything is fine. But the truth is simple: the longer they leave rates here, the more the real economy including households, banks, and the Treasury itself buckles under the weight.
The narrative says slow, steady cuts.
The reality is they may not have that luxury.
If deflation is the real risk, they can’t wait for the data to confirm it. By the time it shows up cleanly in CPI, the damage is already done. The Fed needs to cut faster than consensus expects not to juice markets, but to keep the system from tightening itself through rising delinquencies, collapsing credit quality, and a refinancing wall that gets more dangerous with every month of high rates.
The recent flattening in the chart is the first sign the Fed knows the clock is ticking. Either they bring rates down on their own terms, or the economy will force a far uglier adjustment later.
Fed has finally stopped the losses, largely b/c IoR has dropped and RRPs are drained while average yield on balance sheet is steadily rising as low-yield assets mature, placed w/ higher-yielding ones; Fed is still over $240 billion away from sending Treasury a single dime: https://t.co/15edllE1iR tweet
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WealthyReadings
RT @WealthyReadings: $NVO is NOT cheap and NOT a buy right now.
GLP-1 was supposed to drive growth but market share is slipping in favor of competition. Growth guidance was cut twice and there are no near-term catalysts nor clarity on what the future will be like.
Lower growth → lower cash generation → lower multiples.
This is how the market works. Comparing today's valuation to the last two years' is like comparing apples to bananas. Conditions changed.
$NVO is a fantastic company. Just not a great stock, yet. There are no reasons to rush any purchase, better be patient.
tweet
RT @WealthyReadings: $NVO is NOT cheap and NOT a buy right now.
GLP-1 was supposed to drive growth but market share is slipping in favor of competition. Growth guidance was cut twice and there are no near-term catalysts nor clarity on what the future will be like.
Lower growth → lower cash generation → lower multiples.
This is how the market works. Comparing today's valuation to the last two years' is like comparing apples to bananas. Conditions changed.
$NVO is a fantastic company. Just not a great stock, yet. There are no reasons to rush any purchase, better be patient.
tweet
WealthyReadings
RT @WealthyReadings: The market is in a bubble.
I’m not sure anyone can or should even try to deny this, but most here misunderstand its source. It isn’t a valuation bubble, and the comparisons to the dot-com era are just plain wrong.
But we are in a bubble: a liquidity bubble.
To be more precise, we went through different liquidity bubbles and reached the point where this excess liquidity is now a necessity for the U.S. government. They issued too much debt, reached a point where they can’t pay it back, and now have to issue more simply to survive.
Part of this excess is distributed to companies which can sustain markets in ways that were not possible before, other to workers who can consume while they shouldn't be able to, or wouldn't have in the past.
In brief: it won’t be fixed tomorrow.
For decades, markets lived and died based on access to liquidity from the private sector. This is no longer the case. We entered an era of continuous liquidity from fiscal policies, which can be further boosted by monetary policies. But the baseline is, and will remain, much higher than historically - and will only grow from here.
So please, leave your Buffett Indicator and average multiples at the door. The data is real: we are above averages, but we also evolve in an incomparable environment.
You wouldn’t compare a lion’s lifetime in Siberia to one in Africa. Seems stupid, right? Same thing here.
We'll continue to have volatility, crashes, corrections and such. But in the medium term, without any resets, valuation's average will continue to trend higher because liquidity continues to trend higher.
Our job is to make the most of any situation. So let's focus on that.
tweet
RT @WealthyReadings: The market is in a bubble.
I’m not sure anyone can or should even try to deny this, but most here misunderstand its source. It isn’t a valuation bubble, and the comparisons to the dot-com era are just plain wrong.
But we are in a bubble: a liquidity bubble.
To be more precise, we went through different liquidity bubbles and reached the point where this excess liquidity is now a necessity for the U.S. government. They issued too much debt, reached a point where they can’t pay it back, and now have to issue more simply to survive.
Part of this excess is distributed to companies which can sustain markets in ways that were not possible before, other to workers who can consume while they shouldn't be able to, or wouldn't have in the past.
In brief: it won’t be fixed tomorrow.
For decades, markets lived and died based on access to liquidity from the private sector. This is no longer the case. We entered an era of continuous liquidity from fiscal policies, which can be further boosted by monetary policies. But the baseline is, and will remain, much higher than historically - and will only grow from here.
So please, leave your Buffett Indicator and average multiples at the door. The data is real: we are above averages, but we also evolve in an incomparable environment.
You wouldn’t compare a lion’s lifetime in Siberia to one in Africa. Seems stupid, right? Same thing here.
We'll continue to have volatility, crashes, corrections and such. But in the medium term, without any resets, valuation's average will continue to trend higher because liquidity continues to trend higher.
Our job is to make the most of any situation. So let's focus on that.
tweet
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
RT @WealthyReadings: 🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap, and I don’t say that often.
Financials are strong. Growth is strong. Multiples are reasonable. And we’re set up for a Q4 beat.
Here’s why $TMDX will go higher, why they’ll likely beat FY expectations and why it is one of the best buy on the market 👇
Quarter flight numbers so far.
🔹October: 773 flights → 24.9 per day
🔹November to date: 317 flights → 26.4 per day
🔹Q4 to date: 1,090 flights → 25.3 per day
As of today, not even halfway through Q4, $TMDX has generated around $74.4M in revenue, roughly half of what’s needed to hit the low end of its FY guidance - which has already been raised three times this year.
This comes after just 43 days, with 49 days left in the quarter.
At the current pace of 25.3 flights per day, they’re on track for.
≈ 2,330 flights total in Q4
≈ $159M in revenue
That would push FY25 revenue toward the high end of their guidance without any acceleration in flight frequency.
And december is historically the strongest month of the quarter, and the second strongest of the year in terms of transplant activity and flight data for $TMDX.
So if they simply maintain this rhythm, they’ll hit the high end of their guidance and if flights accelerate - as history suggests, we're up for a beat.
That being said, my calculations aren't perfect, nothing really is, but there are reasons to expect a strong quarter based on today data for $TMDX.
All while the stock trades at its lowest multiples in years, with many bullish catalysts ahead.
🔹 Rapid growth & expanding margins
🔹 Recession proof business model
🔹 Multiple short-term growth verticals
🔹 Strong winter seasonality
🔹 Competition acquirerd 20×+ sales
You'll find everything you need to build your convictions just below 👇
tweet
RT @WealthyReadings: 🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap, and I don’t say that often.
Financials are strong. Growth is strong. Multiples are reasonable. And we’re set up for a Q4 beat.
Here’s why $TMDX will go higher, why they’ll likely beat FY expectations and why it is one of the best buy on the market 👇
Quarter flight numbers so far.
🔹October: 773 flights → 24.9 per day
🔹November to date: 317 flights → 26.4 per day
🔹Q4 to date: 1,090 flights → 25.3 per day
As of today, not even halfway through Q4, $TMDX has generated around $74.4M in revenue, roughly half of what’s needed to hit the low end of its FY guidance - which has already been raised three times this year.
This comes after just 43 days, with 49 days left in the quarter.
At the current pace of 25.3 flights per day, they’re on track for.
≈ 2,330 flights total in Q4
≈ $159M in revenue
That would push FY25 revenue toward the high end of their guidance without any acceleration in flight frequency.
And december is historically the strongest month of the quarter, and the second strongest of the year in terms of transplant activity and flight data for $TMDX.
So if they simply maintain this rhythm, they’ll hit the high end of their guidance and if flights accelerate - as history suggests, we're up for a beat.
That being said, my calculations aren't perfect, nothing really is, but there are reasons to expect a strong quarter based on today data for $TMDX.
All while the stock trades at its lowest multiples in years, with many bullish catalysts ahead.
🔹 Rapid growth & expanding margins
🔹 Recession proof business model
🔹 Multiple short-term growth verticals
🔹 Strong winter seasonality
🔹 Competition acquirerd 20×+ sales
You'll find everything you need to build your convictions just below 👇
tweet
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
RT @WealthyReadings: $NBIS is one of the most interesting AI infrastructure plays on the market, involved across multiple verticals.
Here’s why 👇
🔷 Providing highly efficient compute at competitive prices.
🔷 Serving hyperscalers, start-ups and enterprises with hyperscaler-level compute quality.
🔷 Own and operates data centers all around the world.
🔷 Operating in one of the fastest-growing sectors with massive demand.
🔷 Very rapid ARR growth driven by insatiable compute needs.
🔷 Active in autonomous vehicles and tech education through its subsidiaries.
🔷 Involved in cutting-edge data technologies through equity stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka.
🔷 Valuation reflects execution risk, not full long-term potential.
The bear case?
🔷 Highly competitive industry with major cloud providers and neoclouds, even if Nebius offers hyperscaler-grade compute at better pricing.
🔷 Large capex requirements, long scaling cycles, and the risk of overbuilding capacity — amplified by hyperscalers shifting risk downstream.
🔷 Execution needs to remain flawless to compete long term in the AI ecosystem.
You'll find more details in the full breakdown below, but one conclusion stands: $NBIS is building competitive AI infrastructure at a time when demand is exploding, with pricing and performance that directly challenge hyperscalers.
Question is, how long before the market recognizes the scale of the opportunity?
tweet
RT @WealthyReadings: $NBIS is one of the most interesting AI infrastructure plays on the market, involved across multiple verticals.
Here’s why 👇
🔷 Providing highly efficient compute at competitive prices.
🔷 Serving hyperscalers, start-ups and enterprises with hyperscaler-level compute quality.
🔷 Own and operates data centers all around the world.
🔷 Operating in one of the fastest-growing sectors with massive demand.
🔷 Very rapid ARR growth driven by insatiable compute needs.
🔷 Active in autonomous vehicles and tech education through its subsidiaries.
🔷 Involved in cutting-edge data technologies through equity stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka.
🔷 Valuation reflects execution risk, not full long-term potential.
The bear case?
🔷 Highly competitive industry with major cloud providers and neoclouds, even if Nebius offers hyperscaler-grade compute at better pricing.
🔷 Large capex requirements, long scaling cycles, and the risk of overbuilding capacity — amplified by hyperscalers shifting risk downstream.
🔷 Execution needs to remain flawless to compete long term in the AI ecosystem.
You'll find more details in the full breakdown below, but one conclusion stands: $NBIS is building competitive AI infrastructure at a time when demand is exploding, with pricing and performance that directly challenge hyperscalers.
Question is, how long before the market recognizes the scale of the opportunity?
tweet
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
Get ready to see $PYPL BNPL growing 283,765% YoY.
The plan is going exactly as expected. And PayPal will have a strong Q4. Followed by a terrible guidance. https://t.co/CyHBKo5sm5
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Get ready to see $PYPL BNPL growing 283,765% YoY.
The plan is going exactly as expected. And PayPal will have a strong Q4. Followed by a terrible guidance. https://t.co/CyHBKo5sm5
JUST IN: American shoppers spent record $11.8B online on Black Friday, up 9% from last year tweet
EndGame Macro
What I Found After Digging Into the Real Research on Deflation
After working through the most serious research on deflation and the frameworks central bankers actually rely on, one thing becomes impossible to ignore…deflation isn’t about CPI going down. It’s about balance sheets cracking under the weight of debt. Once you shift from prices to debt versus debtor incomes, the U.S. and global picture makes far more sense.
Deflation Starts When Debt And Debtor Prices Diverge
The research from Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria rebuilds Irving Fisher’s old idea for the modern world…deflation begins when the prices that support debt like wages, asset values, and broad output prices stall while nominal debt stays fixed. When these debtor prices flatten or fall, the real burden rises. Defaults pick up, banks tighten lending, collateral softens, spending slows, and the loop reinforces itself.
Their index blends debtor inflation with the health of bank credit. When the combined index rises, the system is sliding toward a deflationary setup. Japan’s lost decade fits this perfectly. After 2008, the United States pulled the index down with aggressive bond buying programs, while the European Monetary Union did not,
so its index remained elevated.
The takeaway was you don’t get deflation just because consumer prices cool. You get it when debtor prices weaken while leverage stays high.
Whether The Spiral Breaks Or Explodes Depends On How Deleveraging Unfolds
The paper I read from the Bank for International Settlements shows the mechanics. A financial shock alone doesn’t guarantee collapse. If households and businesses can refinance and if investors with clean balance sheets step in to buy cheap assets, the system stabilizes. Losses occur, but the loop doesn’t turn catastrophic.
It becomes dangerous when everyone tries to reduce leverage at the same time or when banks respond to losses by cutting credit. That’s when you get forced selling with falling prices, more losses, credit tightening and more forced selling. It’s the Irving Fisher and Hyman Minsky spiral in real time. Faster price declines actually make matters worse because they instantly raise real debt burdens.
The policy conclusion is either reflate and refinance with bond buying, lower real rates, yield caps or you risk years of balance sheet contraction and stagnation.
How This Maps Onto The United States And The World Right Now
Seen through this lens, the United States is drifting toward similar dynamics of a 1930s style collapse…
• Very high public debt and vulnerable pockets of private debt (commercial real estate, corporate credit).
• High interest rates sitting on top of debt issued in a low rate era.
• Early signs of the exact stress these models warn about: rising delinquencies, asset price softness, slowing wage momentum.
• A massive refinancing wall coming in 2026–2027.
If policymakers keep real rates too high into this backdrop, the system starts looking less like the United States after 2015 and more like the European Monetary Union around 2012 with weak lending, fragile collateral, and nominal growth too soft to support the debt load.
Globally, you can already see different stages of this same pattern: Japan has lived inside it for decades, the European Monetary Union slips toward it whenever growth slows, and China is entering it through property deflation and tightening credit.
My Read
The next phase of the cycle isn’t about whether inflation lands at 2% or 3%. It’s about how countries manage too much debt in a world of weak nominal growth. Modern deflation doesn’t announce itself with a dramatic crash, it shows up as sluggish demand, suppressed yields, repeated credit accidents, and slow motion financial repression.
The United States and much of the world are already on this road. The real question now is whether policymakers move toward reflation early or wait until the spiral tightens. tweet
What I Found After Digging Into the Real Research on Deflation
After working through the most serious research on deflation and the frameworks central bankers actually rely on, one thing becomes impossible to ignore…deflation isn’t about CPI going down. It’s about balance sheets cracking under the weight of debt. Once you shift from prices to debt versus debtor incomes, the U.S. and global picture makes far more sense.
Deflation Starts When Debt And Debtor Prices Diverge
The research from Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria rebuilds Irving Fisher’s old idea for the modern world…deflation begins when the prices that support debt like wages, asset values, and broad output prices stall while nominal debt stays fixed. When these debtor prices flatten or fall, the real burden rises. Defaults pick up, banks tighten lending, collateral softens, spending slows, and the loop reinforces itself.
Their index blends debtor inflation with the health of bank credit. When the combined index rises, the system is sliding toward a deflationary setup. Japan’s lost decade fits this perfectly. After 2008, the United States pulled the index down with aggressive bond buying programs, while the European Monetary Union did not,
so its index remained elevated.
The takeaway was you don’t get deflation just because consumer prices cool. You get it when debtor prices weaken while leverage stays high.
Whether The Spiral Breaks Or Explodes Depends On How Deleveraging Unfolds
The paper I read from the Bank for International Settlements shows the mechanics. A financial shock alone doesn’t guarantee collapse. If households and businesses can refinance and if investors with clean balance sheets step in to buy cheap assets, the system stabilizes. Losses occur, but the loop doesn’t turn catastrophic.
It becomes dangerous when everyone tries to reduce leverage at the same time or when banks respond to losses by cutting credit. That’s when you get forced selling with falling prices, more losses, credit tightening and more forced selling. It’s the Irving Fisher and Hyman Minsky spiral in real time. Faster price declines actually make matters worse because they instantly raise real debt burdens.
The policy conclusion is either reflate and refinance with bond buying, lower real rates, yield caps or you risk years of balance sheet contraction and stagnation.
How This Maps Onto The United States And The World Right Now
Seen through this lens, the United States is drifting toward similar dynamics of a 1930s style collapse…
• Very high public debt and vulnerable pockets of private debt (commercial real estate, corporate credit).
• High interest rates sitting on top of debt issued in a low rate era.
• Early signs of the exact stress these models warn about: rising delinquencies, asset price softness, slowing wage momentum.
• A massive refinancing wall coming in 2026–2027.
If policymakers keep real rates too high into this backdrop, the system starts looking less like the United States after 2015 and more like the European Monetary Union around 2012 with weak lending, fragile collateral, and nominal growth too soft to support the debt load.
Globally, you can already see different stages of this same pattern: Japan has lived inside it for decades, the European Monetary Union slips toward it whenever growth slows, and China is entering it through property deflation and tightening credit.
My Read
The next phase of the cycle isn’t about whether inflation lands at 2% or 3%. It’s about how countries manage too much debt in a world of weak nominal growth. Modern deflation doesn’t announce itself with a dramatic crash, it shows up as sluggish demand, suppressed yields, repeated credit accidents, and slow motion financial repression.
The United States and much of the world are already on this road. The real question now is whether policymakers move toward reflation early or wait until the spiral tightens. tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: Why I Post So Much: Because Every Day the Game Gets Smarter And So Should You
I look at the world like a game that’s constantly trying to outsmart me. Inflation chips away at savings. Policies tilt the board. Laws shift incentives. Every move the system makes, it’s taking a small bite out of your time, your labor, your freedom usually without you even noticing. Money might not be everything, but it dictates almost everything we do. So I treat it like chess. The board is the monetary system, and the goal is simple…don’t get cornered.
That mindset forces me to study. You can’t win a game you don’t understand. So I read history to see what happens when debt piles up, when currencies debase, when governments overextend. It’s not about predicting the future but rather about recognizing patterns. The same mistakes repeat with different branding. The players change, but the incentives don’t.
To me, this is awareness. Whether or not the system is out to get me doesn’t even matter. Acting as if it is makes me sharper. It keeps me questioning what’s real value versus what’s illusion. It keeps me from trusting a system that punishes people for saving, rewards debt, and sells security that quietly erodes in real terms.
There’s a psychological piece to it too. When you start viewing the world this way, you stop feeling like a victim and start thinking like a player. You realize you’re not powerless, you’re just uninformed. And the more you learn, the more control you take back. That’s what really drives me to post, trying to pull more people into that mindset. Not fear, but curiosity. Not cynicism, but agency.
Because once you see the game, you can’t unsee it. You start noticing how narratives are used to keep people comfortable, distracted, compliant. You start thinking in probabilities, not promises. And you realize that every bit of knowledge about history, markets, policy, or human behavior is a small form of protection.
That’s what all of this is about. The system may not actually be trying to screw you, but if you assume it is, you’ll live smarter. You’ll learn faster. You’ll stop playing by rules that were never written for you in the first place. And honestly, I hope more people start thinking that way. Because once you do, you stop drifting and start playing the game on purpose.
tweet
RT @onechancefreedm: Why I Post So Much: Because Every Day the Game Gets Smarter And So Should You
I look at the world like a game that’s constantly trying to outsmart me. Inflation chips away at savings. Policies tilt the board. Laws shift incentives. Every move the system makes, it’s taking a small bite out of your time, your labor, your freedom usually without you even noticing. Money might not be everything, but it dictates almost everything we do. So I treat it like chess. The board is the monetary system, and the goal is simple…don’t get cornered.
That mindset forces me to study. You can’t win a game you don’t understand. So I read history to see what happens when debt piles up, when currencies debase, when governments overextend. It’s not about predicting the future but rather about recognizing patterns. The same mistakes repeat with different branding. The players change, but the incentives don’t.
To me, this is awareness. Whether or not the system is out to get me doesn’t even matter. Acting as if it is makes me sharper. It keeps me questioning what’s real value versus what’s illusion. It keeps me from trusting a system that punishes people for saving, rewards debt, and sells security that quietly erodes in real terms.
There’s a psychological piece to it too. When you start viewing the world this way, you stop feeling like a victim and start thinking like a player. You realize you’re not powerless, you’re just uninformed. And the more you learn, the more control you take back. That’s what really drives me to post, trying to pull more people into that mindset. Not fear, but curiosity. Not cynicism, but agency.
Because once you see the game, you can’t unsee it. You start noticing how narratives are used to keep people comfortable, distracted, compliant. You start thinking in probabilities, not promises. And you realize that every bit of knowledge about history, markets, policy, or human behavior is a small form of protection.
That’s what all of this is about. The system may not actually be trying to screw you, but if you assume it is, you’ll live smarter. You’ll learn faster. You’ll stop playing by rules that were never written for you in the first place. And honestly, I hope more people start thinking that way. Because once you do, you stop drifting and start playing the game on purpose.
tweet
EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: Thanks Martin. And just to clarify, the fact that I use AI is literally in my bio. But none of this would land the way it does if I were just typing prompts and posting whatever comes back. I spend minimum 6 hours every day digging through news, data, reports, charts, history and then I use AI as a tool to help me express the ideas clearly and compactly, because macro and geopolitics is insanely complex and a single missed detail can flip an entire argument on its head.
So when people say it’s just AI, it actually does annoy me a bit lol because the thinking, the framing, the interrogation of assumptions… that’s all me. AI just helps me package it in a way that fits into a post without losing the nuance. And honestly, the best part of this whole thing is that I’m learning constantly as I go.
tweet
RT @onechancefreedm: Thanks Martin. And just to clarify, the fact that I use AI is literally in my bio. But none of this would land the way it does if I were just typing prompts and posting whatever comes back. I spend minimum 6 hours every day digging through news, data, reports, charts, history and then I use AI as a tool to help me express the ideas clearly and compactly, because macro and geopolitics is insanely complex and a single missed detail can flip an entire argument on its head.
So when people say it’s just AI, it actually does annoy me a bit lol because the thinking, the framing, the interrogation of assumptions… that’s all me. AI just helps me package it in a way that fits into a post without losing the nuance. And honestly, the best part of this whole thing is that I’m learning constantly as I go.
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
RT @MauiBoyMacro: This sincerely resonates with me and describes what motivates me to be here; sharing information, learning/growing and contributing where I can. 👇🏼
tweet
RT @MauiBoyMacro: This sincerely resonates with me and describes what motivates me to be here; sharing information, learning/growing and contributing where I can. 👇🏼
Why I Post So Much: Because Every Day the Game Gets Smarter And So Should You
I look at the world like a game that’s constantly trying to outsmart me. Inflation chips away at savings. Policies tilt the board. Laws shift incentives. Every move the system makes, it’s taking a small bite out of your time, your labor, your freedom usually without you even noticing. Money might not be everything, but it dictates almost everything we do. So I treat it like chess. The board is the monetary system, and the goal is simple…don’t get cornered.
That mindset forces me to study. You can’t win a game you don’t understand. So I read history to see what happens when debt piles up, when currencies debase, when governments overextend. It’s not about predicting the future but rather about recognizing patterns. The same mistakes repeat with different branding. The players change, but the incentives don’t.
To me, this is awareness. Whether or not the system is out to get me doesn’t even matter. Acting as if it is makes me sharper. It keeps me questioning what’s real value versus what’s illusion. It keeps me from trusting a system that punishes people for saving, rewards debt, and sells security that quietly erodes in real terms.
There’s a psychological piece to it too. When you start viewing the world this way, you stop feeling like a victim and start thinking like a player. You realize you’re not powerless, you’re just uninformed. And the more you learn, the more control you take back. That’s what really drives me to post, trying to pull more people into that mindset. Not fear, but curiosity. Not cynicism, but agency.
Because once you see the game, you can’t unsee it. You start noticing how narratives are used to keep people comfortable, distracted, compliant. You start thinking in probabilities, not promises. And you realize that every bit of knowledge about history, markets, policy, or human behavior is a small form of protection.
That’s what all of this is about. The system may not actually be trying to screw you, but if you assume it is, you’ll live smarter. You’ll learn faster. You’ll stop playing by rules that were never written for you in the first place. And honestly, I hope more people start thinking that way. Because once you do, you stop drifting and start playing the game on purpose. tweet
AkhenOsiris
RT @FreightAlley: Freight data has been telling us that there was more demand than retailers forecasted
https://t.co/VXCBRZLKoS
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RT @FreightAlley: Freight data has been telling us that there was more demand than retailers forecasted
https://t.co/VXCBRZLKoS
Mastercard's preliminary SpendingPulse data indicates U.S. retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1% year-over-year on Black Friday 2025, exceeding the 3.6% holiday season forecast and the 3.4% growth seen in 2024. tweet