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EndGame Macro
The Industrial Slowdown Was Phase One. Phase Two Depends on the Consumer
What you’re looking at is the combined pulse of the manufacturing economy. Each line represents a different Fed district asking local factories a simple question: “Are things getting better or worse?” Above zero means improvement, below zero means contraction. When you average all the regions together, you get a pretty reliable sense of the national trend.
The story is clear. Early 2021 through mid-2022 was the overheated, post COVID surge…reopening demand, stimulus, supply chain chaos. Then things cooled hard. Higher rates hit, inventories got worked down, global demand softened. Manufacturing slipped below zero and stayed there, almost two full years of quiet contraction. Not a crash just a long, grinding slowdown.
Now, in mid 2025, everything is clustering around the flat line. It’s not booming, but it isn’t sliding further either. It’s the look of a sector that’s done most of its bleeding and is trying to find a floor.
Where We Are Now And What Happens If the Broader Economy Rolls Over
If the rest of the economy were still healthy, you’d probably say manufacturing is bottoming out. It already went through its own private recession, and historically this kind of stability around zero is the phase before a slow, uneven recovery.
But if you assume the broader economy finally softens and consumer spending slows, services stop carrying the load, credit gets tight this chart reads very differently.
Instead of manufacturing is stabilizing, it becomes manufacturing has already taken its hit… and now the rest of the economy is catching down. In that scenario, these surveys don’t drift from negative to positive, they turn back down with a second leg, this time reinforced by layoffs, weaker orders, and a pullback in investment across multiple sectors, not just factories.
That’s how a long, contained industrial slump turns into a full cycle downturn: the part of the economy that held everything up finally runs out of momentum. Manufacturing doesn’t cause the recession, it simply stops hiding the one that’s been building underneath.
So the question the chart is really asking isn’t whether factories are improving.
It’s whether the rest of the economy gives them room to recover… or pulls them back under on the way down.
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The Industrial Slowdown Was Phase One. Phase Two Depends on the Consumer
What you’re looking at is the combined pulse of the manufacturing economy. Each line represents a different Fed district asking local factories a simple question: “Are things getting better or worse?” Above zero means improvement, below zero means contraction. When you average all the regions together, you get a pretty reliable sense of the national trend.
The story is clear. Early 2021 through mid-2022 was the overheated, post COVID surge…reopening demand, stimulus, supply chain chaos. Then things cooled hard. Higher rates hit, inventories got worked down, global demand softened. Manufacturing slipped below zero and stayed there, almost two full years of quiet contraction. Not a crash just a long, grinding slowdown.
Now, in mid 2025, everything is clustering around the flat line. It’s not booming, but it isn’t sliding further either. It’s the look of a sector that’s done most of its bleeding and is trying to find a floor.
Where We Are Now And What Happens If the Broader Economy Rolls Over
If the rest of the economy were still healthy, you’d probably say manufacturing is bottoming out. It already went through its own private recession, and historically this kind of stability around zero is the phase before a slow, uneven recovery.
But if you assume the broader economy finally softens and consumer spending slows, services stop carrying the load, credit gets tight this chart reads very differently.
Instead of manufacturing is stabilizing, it becomes manufacturing has already taken its hit… and now the rest of the economy is catching down. In that scenario, these surveys don’t drift from negative to positive, they turn back down with a second leg, this time reinforced by layoffs, weaker orders, and a pullback in investment across multiple sectors, not just factories.
That’s how a long, contained industrial slump turns into a full cycle downturn: the part of the economy that held everything up finally runs out of momentum. Manufacturing doesn’t cause the recession, it simply stops hiding the one that’s been building underneath.
So the question the chart is really asking isn’t whether factories are improving.
It’s whether the rest of the economy gives them room to recover… or pulls them back under on the way down.
Manufacturing started contracting around mid-'22 and has been in the doldrums ever since: https://t.co/LfSH9F5uDP tweet
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Fiscal.ai
Grab is the largest ride sharing & food delivery platform in Southeast Asia.
Over the last 3 years, they've shown remarkable operating leverage as they've scaled.
$GRAB https://t.co/KLH0FypG2B
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Grab is the largest ride sharing & food delivery platform in Southeast Asia.
Over the last 3 years, they've shown remarkable operating leverage as they've scaled.
$GRAB https://t.co/KLH0FypG2B
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AkhenOsiris
OpenAI $GOOGL $META $AMZN
OpenAI is now internally testing 'ads' inside ChatGPT that could redefine the web economy.
Up until now, the ChatGPT experience has been completely free. While there are premium plans and models, you don't see GPT sell you products or show ads.
As spotted by Tibor on X, ChatGPT Android app 1.2025.329 beta includes new references to an "ads feature" with "bazaar content", "search ad" and "search ads carousel."
https://t.co/xr1AJdVfgt
It is likely that ads will be limited to the search experience only, but that might change soon.
My understanding is that GPT ads could be highly personalised as the AI knows everything about you unless you disable the feature,
https://t.co/5vILyxtHFk
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OpenAI $GOOGL $META $AMZN
OpenAI is now internally testing 'ads' inside ChatGPT that could redefine the web economy.
Up until now, the ChatGPT experience has been completely free. While there are premium plans and models, you don't see GPT sell you products or show ads.
As spotted by Tibor on X, ChatGPT Android app 1.2025.329 beta includes new references to an "ads feature" with "bazaar content", "search ad" and "search ads carousel."
https://t.co/xr1AJdVfgt
It is likely that ads will be limited to the search experience only, but that might change soon.
My understanding is that GPT ads could be highly personalised as the AI knows everything about you unless you disable the feature,
https://t.co/5vILyxtHFk
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App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals:
🇨🇳 Alibaba $BABA
👷 Home Depot: $HD
👔 Workday $WDAY
💻 Dell $DELL
☁️ Zscaler $ZS
and many more!
https://t.co/cAvMwnG1YP
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📊 This Week in Visuals:
🇨🇳 Alibaba $BABA
👷 Home Depot: $HD
👔 Workday $WDAY
💻 Dell $DELL
☁️ Zscaler $ZS
and many more!
https://t.co/cAvMwnG1YP
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EndGame Macro
Silver’s Signal: Why a Falling Gold Ratio Is Whispering Deflation Ahead
The gold to silver ratio has been drifting lower for years, and now it’s pressing into the bottom of that long channel 75 to 73 to now basically 70. Whenever a chart grinds lower like this, especially over a multi year stretch, it usually means the market is slowly letting go of a narrative. In this case, it’s letting go of gold’s panic premium. Gold is the metal people grab when they’re afraid of inflation, currency problems, or policy mistakes. Silver is part monetary too, but it’s much more tied to actual industrial demand. So when the ratio falls, it’s usually the market saying: We’re less worried about inflation. We don’t need as much of the pure hedge.
Why This Points Toward a Deflationary Tone
The timing is the tell. This breakdown isn’t happening during the inflation spike,
it’s happening after, once central banks have slammed on the brakes for two straight years. Historically, the ratio spikes when inflation is the headline risk (think 2008, 2011, 2020), then it falls when inflation expectations collapse and investors start trusting the system’s nominal anchors again. A move toward or below 70 says the market is shifting out of the protect me from runaway prices mindset and into a slower, cooler one. That’s what disinflation feels like: the fear premium evaporates first.
And silver’s outperformance here doesn’t scream inflation is back. It actually suggests the opposite. It usually means people are leaning more toward real economic demand like solar, electronics, manufacturing rather than hiding out in pure monetary assets. In other words they’re betting on activity, not price level chaos. When that happens alongside a firm dollar and stable long term yields, it’s much closer to a soft, deflationary glide than some new inflation wave.
So if this chart breaks cleanly below 70 and keeps sliding, the market thinks the inflation scare has run its course, and we’re entering a stretch where slow nominal growth and fading fear, not a new surge in prices set the tone.
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Silver’s Signal: Why a Falling Gold Ratio Is Whispering Deflation Ahead
The gold to silver ratio has been drifting lower for years, and now it’s pressing into the bottom of that long channel 75 to 73 to now basically 70. Whenever a chart grinds lower like this, especially over a multi year stretch, it usually means the market is slowly letting go of a narrative. In this case, it’s letting go of gold’s panic premium. Gold is the metal people grab when they’re afraid of inflation, currency problems, or policy mistakes. Silver is part monetary too, but it’s much more tied to actual industrial demand. So when the ratio falls, it’s usually the market saying: We’re less worried about inflation. We don’t need as much of the pure hedge.
Why This Points Toward a Deflationary Tone
The timing is the tell. This breakdown isn’t happening during the inflation spike,
it’s happening after, once central banks have slammed on the brakes for two straight years. Historically, the ratio spikes when inflation is the headline risk (think 2008, 2011, 2020), then it falls when inflation expectations collapse and investors start trusting the system’s nominal anchors again. A move toward or below 70 says the market is shifting out of the protect me from runaway prices mindset and into a slower, cooler one. That’s what disinflation feels like: the fear premium evaporates first.
And silver’s outperformance here doesn’t scream inflation is back. It actually suggests the opposite. It usually means people are leaning more toward real economic demand like solar, electronics, manufacturing rather than hiding out in pure monetary assets. In other words they’re betting on activity, not price level chaos. When that happens alongside a firm dollar and stable long term yields, it’s much closer to a soft, deflationary glide than some new inflation wave.
So if this chart breaks cleanly below 70 and keeps sliding, the market thinks the inflation scare has run its course, and we’re entering a stretch where slow nominal growth and fading fear, not a new surge in prices set the tone.
Gold to silver ratio (GTS) broke horizontal support and headed towards the lower band of a 3.5-year descending channel formation with GTS target of 70.
At $4,500 gold price and GTS 70 = Silver @ $63
Either way, I believe, silver is headed to $63 price target most likely by next week.
My next target for GTS 57 & Gold price target $5,000
$5,000/57= $88 silver price.
Surely if gold overshoots then silver could reach a triple digit figure.
This post is not an investment advice... tweet
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EndGame Macro
When Oil Falls, Bitcoin Slips, and Metals Rise Something Bigger Is Shifting
When you line everything up from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to now, the pattern is surprisingly clean. Silver is running away from the pack. Gold’s not far behind. Stocks are grinding higher but not exploding. The dollar hasn’t moved. Oil has slipped. Bitcoin has fallen apart. That mix alone tells you this isn’t an inflation story. It’s something quieter.
Silver leading while oil and Bitcoin sink is the market’s way of saying…”We’re not fighting runaway prices anymore, we’re settling into a slower, cooler environment.” In inflationary periods, oil is usually the star and the dollar weakens. Here, oil is down and the dollar is steady. And Bitcoin the thing people pile into when liquidity is overflowing is one of the worst performers. That’s a very different tone.
Why This Leans Deflationary
Start with energy. If the market truly believed we were headed into another inflation surge, oil wouldn’t be sitting down near the lows of this whole window. It would be ripping. Instead, Brent looks like it’s pricing weaker demand and a softer global outlook. That’s usually what happens when people expect slower nominal growth, not faster inflation.
Then look at the split between Bitcoin and the metals. In inflation waves, Bitcoin normally outperforms everything, it feeds off easy money and excess liquidity. But here it’s been steadily bleeding lower while silver is up almost 50%. That’s capital shifting away from speculative inflation hedges and toward hard assets that hold up in a low growth, low rate world. Silver is benefiting from that shift, and from its link to solar, electronics, and real economic activity.
And the dollar matters too. When inflation is the problem, the dollar weakens because real yields fall and capital looks elsewhere. But the dollar here is basically flat. Metals aren’t rising because the dollar is collapsing, they’re rising in spite of it, which is a very different message.
Put together, this chart just reinforces what the gold to silver ratio was already hinting at: the panic around inflation has faded, and the market is quietly rotating into assets that fit a slow, disinflationary backdrop. It’s not the feel of a boom. It’s the feel of a system cooling down, easing off the extremes, and preparing for a long, softer stretch where real assets with utility not speculative fireworks lead the way.
Credit to @robin_j_brooks for the chart.
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When Oil Falls, Bitcoin Slips, and Metals Rise Something Bigger Is Shifting
When you line everything up from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to now, the pattern is surprisingly clean. Silver is running away from the pack. Gold’s not far behind. Stocks are grinding higher but not exploding. The dollar hasn’t moved. Oil has slipped. Bitcoin has fallen apart. That mix alone tells you this isn’t an inflation story. It’s something quieter.
Silver leading while oil and Bitcoin sink is the market’s way of saying…”We’re not fighting runaway prices anymore, we’re settling into a slower, cooler environment.” In inflationary periods, oil is usually the star and the dollar weakens. Here, oil is down and the dollar is steady. And Bitcoin the thing people pile into when liquidity is overflowing is one of the worst performers. That’s a very different tone.
Why This Leans Deflationary
Start with energy. If the market truly believed we were headed into another inflation surge, oil wouldn’t be sitting down near the lows of this whole window. It would be ripping. Instead, Brent looks like it’s pricing weaker demand and a softer global outlook. That’s usually what happens when people expect slower nominal growth, not faster inflation.
Then look at the split between Bitcoin and the metals. In inflation waves, Bitcoin normally outperforms everything, it feeds off easy money and excess liquidity. But here it’s been steadily bleeding lower while silver is up almost 50%. That’s capital shifting away from speculative inflation hedges and toward hard assets that hold up in a low growth, low rate world. Silver is benefiting from that shift, and from its link to solar, electronics, and real economic activity.
And the dollar matters too. When inflation is the problem, the dollar weakens because real yields fall and capital looks elsewhere. But the dollar here is basically flat. Metals aren’t rising because the dollar is collapsing, they’re rising in spite of it, which is a very different message.
Put together, this chart just reinforces what the gold to silver ratio was already hinting at: the panic around inflation has faded, and the market is quietly rotating into assets that fit a slow, disinflationary backdrop. It’s not the feel of a boom. It’s the feel of a system cooling down, easing off the extremes, and preparing for a long, softer stretch where real assets with utility not speculative fireworks lead the way.
Credit to @robin_j_brooks for the chart.
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EndGame Macro
Why Record Black Friday Sales Doesn’t Mean What It Sounds Like
These big Black Friday numbers get thrown around every year, but they’re a lot less impressive once you strip out the marketing glow. A 9% jump in online spending doesn’t automatically mean the consumer is strong, it mostly means prices are higher. If everything costs more, you can hit a “record” without people actually buying more. In fact, Salesforce hinted at it directly…shoppers spent more dollars but walked away with fewer items. That’s not a boom, that’s inflation doing the math for you.
How Households Are Actually Paying
Another piece that gets ignored is how people are funding this spending. A lot of the surge is being pushed through credit cards and buy now, pay later. That’s not the behavior of a confident, cash flush consumer. It’s people stretching just to keep holiday traditions alive in a more expensive world. You can get a big headline number today, but it comes with a tab of higher balances, rising delinquencies, and less room to maneuver later.
The Black Friday That Isn’t Really Black Friday Anymore
And the whole event has bled into a month long promotion cycle. It’s not one frantic day where demand explodes, it’s “Black Friday Week” or even “Black November.” Retailers stretch deals across weeks to coax cautious shoppers into spending. So some of this record volume isn’t new demand at all; it’s just December spending pulled forward and repackaged into a one day victory lap.
Once you see all that, the headline loses its shine. It’s not a clean read on consumer strength, it’s a mix of higher prices, borrowed money, and a sale window that keeps getting longer. Underneath the surface, it looks a lot more like people trying to keep up, not people breaking out.
tweet
Why Record Black Friday Sales Doesn’t Mean What It Sounds Like
These big Black Friday numbers get thrown around every year, but they’re a lot less impressive once you strip out the marketing glow. A 9% jump in online spending doesn’t automatically mean the consumer is strong, it mostly means prices are higher. If everything costs more, you can hit a “record” without people actually buying more. In fact, Salesforce hinted at it directly…shoppers spent more dollars but walked away with fewer items. That’s not a boom, that’s inflation doing the math for you.
How Households Are Actually Paying
Another piece that gets ignored is how people are funding this spending. A lot of the surge is being pushed through credit cards and buy now, pay later. That’s not the behavior of a confident, cash flush consumer. It’s people stretching just to keep holiday traditions alive in a more expensive world. You can get a big headline number today, but it comes with a tab of higher balances, rising delinquencies, and less room to maneuver later.
The Black Friday That Isn’t Really Black Friday Anymore
And the whole event has bled into a month long promotion cycle. It’s not one frantic day where demand explodes, it’s “Black Friday Week” or even “Black November.” Retailers stretch deals across weeks to coax cautious shoppers into spending. So some of this record volume isn’t new demand at all; it’s just December spending pulled forward and repackaged into a one day victory lap.
Once you see all that, the headline loses its shine. It’s not a clean read on consumer strength, it’s a mix of higher prices, borrowed money, and a sale window that keeps getting longer. Underneath the surface, it looks a lot more like people trying to keep up, not people breaking out.
U.S. BLACK FRIDAY SALES HIT RECORD HIGH
U.S. online Black Friday sales reached a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year, according to Adobe Analytics. Adobe expects Americans to spend $5.5 billion on Saturday and $5.9 billion on Sunday.
Salesforce reported $18 billion in total Black Friday spending, with luxury apparel and accessories among the top sellers. Despite higher spending, shoppers bought fewer items due to rising prices.
In-store traffic was quieter as many consumers worried about overspending amid inflation and economic uncertainty.
Cyber Monday is projected to lead the season with $14.2 billion in online sales, Adobe said. tweet