AkhenOsiris
This account is hardcore macro bear 🐻 porn every night 😂
Is Kolanovic running this on evenings?
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This account is hardcore macro bear 🐻 porn every night 😂
Is Kolanovic running this on evenings?
US FORWARD-LOOKING INDICATORS SUGGEST A FURTHER DECLINE IN JOBS:
WEAK CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET AND FALLING SERVICES & MANUFACTURING PMI EMPLOYMENT INDEXES SIGNAL A DROP IN U.S. PAYROLLS IN THE COMING MONTHS. tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
When the Bell Curve Peaks: Why M2 Velocity Has a 0% Chance of Spiking Back Up
M2 velocity measures how often each dollar actually moves through the economy. When velocity rises, people feel secure enough to spend. When it falls, they sit on cash. And across the last sixty years, the pattern is almost perfect: velocity climbs during expansions, forms a rounded top, then rolls over when the cycle weakens. Every major peak has lined up with tighter policy, fading demand, or a recession.
The long chart breaks into eras. Before 2000, velocity generally trended higher, money circulated freely and wasn’t trapped in deposits or reserves. After 2000, especially post 2008, the slope turned down as QE caused M2 to balloon faster than nominal GDP. By the time COVID arrived, velocity sat near multi decade lows. Then the pandemic hit and velocity collapsed toward 1.1 as stimulus flooded accounts while spending froze.
The Rebound And The Stall
The rebound after 2020 wasn’t economic strength, it was the mechanical effect of reopening. Nominal GDP jumped thanks to inflation and pent up demand, while M2 stopped growing and even shrank as emergency programs ended and QT drained deposits. With GDP rising and the money stock flat, velocity moved up.
But now it has stalled in the high 1.3s well below the 1.5–1.8 range of the pre 2008 world. That plateau is the real tell. Households have burned through savings to keep up with higher prices and debt costs. Businesses used their buffers to defend margins. The easy gains from stimulus are over.
And historically, once velocity forms a bell curve top and flattens, it never spikes back to new highs. If you translate the entire 65 year history into a probability question of how often does velocity top, roll over, and then surge again? the answer is essentially 0%. Four major tops in early 70s, mid 80s, early 90s, and the dot com peak, all rolled into secular declines. You get small bumps, never new peaks.
Even the post COVID rebound, the biggest pop since the 80s, only took velocity to 1.39 still far below past levels. It wasn’t a breakout; it was a partial recovery from an unprecedented collapse. So the historical odds of a real spike after a rollover are effectively 0%, or at most 5% if you stretch the definition to include brief counter trend moves.
What Happens Next And Why The Lag Matters
Liquidity shifts don’t hit the real economy immediately. There’s a lag often 18 to 24 months between changes in velocity and changes in spending, hiring, and earnings. Rising velocity can cover up stress for a while because households are still drawing down savings. But once those buffers fade, the slowdown shows up quickly: rising delinquencies, weakening surveys, frozen housing activity, and softer job growth. That’s the pattern emerging now.
My view is that this plateau in velocity is a classic late cycle marker, the end of the stimulus driven rebound, not the beginning of a new expansion. If velocity rolls over while M2 stays flat or declines, nominal demand cools. When nominal demand cools, earnings weaken and unemployment follows.
Could policymakers push M2 up again and force another lift in velocity? Yes and aggressive easing and large fiscal spending can recreate something like 2020–22. But because of that 18–24 month lag, the inflationary consequences would show up long after the policy decisions are made. That’s exactly how the last inflation spike formed.
Velocity isn’t saying the economy is back. It’s saying the liquidity tailwind is gone, the money supply isn’t doing the heavy lifting anymore, and what comes next will depend on incomes, jobs, and credit not leftover stimulus. History is blunt: once velocity tops, the rollover is the beginning of the real story, not a setup for another spike.
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When the Bell Curve Peaks: Why M2 Velocity Has a 0% Chance of Spiking Back Up
M2 velocity measures how often each dollar actually moves through the economy. When velocity rises, people feel secure enough to spend. When it falls, they sit on cash. And across the last sixty years, the pattern is almost perfect: velocity climbs during expansions, forms a rounded top, then rolls over when the cycle weakens. Every major peak has lined up with tighter policy, fading demand, or a recession.
The long chart breaks into eras. Before 2000, velocity generally trended higher, money circulated freely and wasn’t trapped in deposits or reserves. After 2000, especially post 2008, the slope turned down as QE caused M2 to balloon faster than nominal GDP. By the time COVID arrived, velocity sat near multi decade lows. Then the pandemic hit and velocity collapsed toward 1.1 as stimulus flooded accounts while spending froze.
The Rebound And The Stall
The rebound after 2020 wasn’t economic strength, it was the mechanical effect of reopening. Nominal GDP jumped thanks to inflation and pent up demand, while M2 stopped growing and even shrank as emergency programs ended and QT drained deposits. With GDP rising and the money stock flat, velocity moved up.
But now it has stalled in the high 1.3s well below the 1.5–1.8 range of the pre 2008 world. That plateau is the real tell. Households have burned through savings to keep up with higher prices and debt costs. Businesses used their buffers to defend margins. The easy gains from stimulus are over.
And historically, once velocity forms a bell curve top and flattens, it never spikes back to new highs. If you translate the entire 65 year history into a probability question of how often does velocity top, roll over, and then surge again? the answer is essentially 0%. Four major tops in early 70s, mid 80s, early 90s, and the dot com peak, all rolled into secular declines. You get small bumps, never new peaks.
Even the post COVID rebound, the biggest pop since the 80s, only took velocity to 1.39 still far below past levels. It wasn’t a breakout; it was a partial recovery from an unprecedented collapse. So the historical odds of a real spike after a rollover are effectively 0%, or at most 5% if you stretch the definition to include brief counter trend moves.
What Happens Next And Why The Lag Matters
Liquidity shifts don’t hit the real economy immediately. There’s a lag often 18 to 24 months between changes in velocity and changes in spending, hiring, and earnings. Rising velocity can cover up stress for a while because households are still drawing down savings. But once those buffers fade, the slowdown shows up quickly: rising delinquencies, weakening surveys, frozen housing activity, and softer job growth. That’s the pattern emerging now.
My view is that this plateau in velocity is a classic late cycle marker, the end of the stimulus driven rebound, not the beginning of a new expansion. If velocity rolls over while M2 stays flat or declines, nominal demand cools. When nominal demand cools, earnings weaken and unemployment follows.
Could policymakers push M2 up again and force another lift in velocity? Yes and aggressive easing and large fiscal spending can recreate something like 2020–22. But because of that 18–24 month lag, the inflationary consequences would show up long after the policy decisions are made. That’s exactly how the last inflation spike formed.
Velocity isn’t saying the economy is back. It’s saying the liquidity tailwind is gone, the money supply isn’t doing the heavy lifting anymore, and what comes next will depend on incomes, jobs, and credit not leftover stimulus. History is blunt: once velocity tops, the rollover is the beginning of the real story, not a setup for another spike.
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
AI Shopping sucks so far pt. 2
https://t.co/n2BSfH4gZN
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AI Shopping sucks so far pt. 2
https://t.co/n2BSfH4gZN
AI shopping sucks so far:
https://t.co/0Z01P1KErs tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The BIS View on Tokenisation And What It Really Means
When people hear the word tokenisation, it can sound like another buzzword from the tech world. But when the Bank for International Settlements pays attention to something, it’s because it’s starting to matter for the actual financial plumbing. And their analysis of tokenised real estate is surprisingly grounded. This isn’t about hype. It’s about how ownership, credit, and liquidity are beginning to shift beneath the surface.
Where Tokenisation Is Emerging
The BIS points out that tokenised real estate doesn’t show up in luxury markets or high profile cities. Instead, it appears in the places traditional finance doesn’t serve well, neighborhoods with lower home prices, slower sales, fewer bank branches, and higher mortgage rates. These are areas where bank credit is scarce, where homes sit longer on the market, and where a little extra liquidity can make a real difference.
Their disaster analysis makes the pattern even clearer. After events like hurricanes or floods, trading in tokenised properties spikes sharply but only if the platform offers a buyback option. Where no buyback exists, liquidity gets worse. What this reveals is simple: tokenisation can create liquidity, but only because the platform itself steps in like a tiny balance sheet. It’s not magic. It’s a new type of intermediary taking on risk banks once carried.
In the BIS’s view, tokenisation is really just fractional ownership wrapped in 24/7 markets, supported by platforms that behave more like shadow banks than tech companies.
Where the BIS Thinks This Leads
If you zoom out, you can see why they’re focused on this. We’re entering a world shaped by aging populations, slower growth, and more cautious banks. At the same time, blockchain rails make it cheap to split assets into thousands of small pieces and let people trade them globally. Combine those forces and the BIS sees real estate evolving toward something like a streamable asset, a property divided into tokens, rent paid automatically through smart contracts, and secondary trading that looks more like equities than traditional housing transactions.
They also see tokenisation platforms gradually taking on bank like roles. If a platform promises to buy back tokens during stress, it becomes responsible for providing liquidity when everyone else pulls back. That’s exactly how shadow banks behave. And once the market becomes large enough to matter, regulators will follow. Liquidity backstops will be scrutinized. Disclosures will tighten. Capital requirements will appear. The BIS is already hinting that these platforms won’t be allowed to operate in a regulatory vacuum forever.
Over time, tokenised assets could become collateral in lending markets as well. That means leverage…margin loans, rehypothecation, structured products built on top of tokenised ownership. What begins as access becomes a new credit channel.
My Read on What’s Ahead
If you take away the jargon, the BIS is basically saying that tokenisation isn’t a fad. It solves real problems: slow settlement, high minimum investment sizes, geographic barriers, and the lack of financing in places banks no longer want to serve. That’s why it’s growing. And that’s why it’s going to keep growing.
The tradeoff is complexity. Tokenisation moves risk from banks into new platforms that haven’t been tested by a major downturn. Liquidity looks great on the way up, but only because the platform is often standing in the middle absorbing volatility. That works until it doesn’t.
Still, the direction is clear. Tokenisation will expand access, reshape who provides credit, and shift who owns the income streams of the physical world. The BIS isn’t predicting a dramatic revolution. They’re describing a quiet rewiring and that rewiring is already underway.
Does real estate #Tokenisation fill gaps in traditional markets? New research shows it enhances access to real estate and liquidity during shocks, but o[...]
The BIS View on Tokenisation And What It Really Means
When people hear the word tokenisation, it can sound like another buzzword from the tech world. But when the Bank for International Settlements pays attention to something, it’s because it’s starting to matter for the actual financial plumbing. And their analysis of tokenised real estate is surprisingly grounded. This isn’t about hype. It’s about how ownership, credit, and liquidity are beginning to shift beneath the surface.
Where Tokenisation Is Emerging
The BIS points out that tokenised real estate doesn’t show up in luxury markets or high profile cities. Instead, it appears in the places traditional finance doesn’t serve well, neighborhoods with lower home prices, slower sales, fewer bank branches, and higher mortgage rates. These are areas where bank credit is scarce, where homes sit longer on the market, and where a little extra liquidity can make a real difference.
Their disaster analysis makes the pattern even clearer. After events like hurricanes or floods, trading in tokenised properties spikes sharply but only if the platform offers a buyback option. Where no buyback exists, liquidity gets worse. What this reveals is simple: tokenisation can create liquidity, but only because the platform itself steps in like a tiny balance sheet. It’s not magic. It’s a new type of intermediary taking on risk banks once carried.
In the BIS’s view, tokenisation is really just fractional ownership wrapped in 24/7 markets, supported by platforms that behave more like shadow banks than tech companies.
Where the BIS Thinks This Leads
If you zoom out, you can see why they’re focused on this. We’re entering a world shaped by aging populations, slower growth, and more cautious banks. At the same time, blockchain rails make it cheap to split assets into thousands of small pieces and let people trade them globally. Combine those forces and the BIS sees real estate evolving toward something like a streamable asset, a property divided into tokens, rent paid automatically through smart contracts, and secondary trading that looks more like equities than traditional housing transactions.
They also see tokenisation platforms gradually taking on bank like roles. If a platform promises to buy back tokens during stress, it becomes responsible for providing liquidity when everyone else pulls back. That’s exactly how shadow banks behave. And once the market becomes large enough to matter, regulators will follow. Liquidity backstops will be scrutinized. Disclosures will tighten. Capital requirements will appear. The BIS is already hinting that these platforms won’t be allowed to operate in a regulatory vacuum forever.
Over time, tokenised assets could become collateral in lending markets as well. That means leverage…margin loans, rehypothecation, structured products built on top of tokenised ownership. What begins as access becomes a new credit channel.
My Read on What’s Ahead
If you take away the jargon, the BIS is basically saying that tokenisation isn’t a fad. It solves real problems: slow settlement, high minimum investment sizes, geographic barriers, and the lack of financing in places banks no longer want to serve. That’s why it’s growing. And that’s why it’s going to keep growing.
The tradeoff is complexity. Tokenisation moves risk from banks into new platforms that haven’t been tested by a major downturn. Liquidity looks great on the way up, but only because the platform is often standing in the middle absorbing volatility. That works until it doesn’t.
Still, the direction is clear. Tokenisation will expand access, reshape who provides credit, and shift who owns the income streams of the physical world. The BIS isn’t predicting a dramatic revolution. They’re describing a quiet rewiring and that rewiring is already underway.
Does real estate #Tokenisation fill gaps in traditional markets? New research shows it enhances access to real estate and liquidity during shocks, but o[...]
Offshore
EndGame Macro The BIS View on Tokenisation And What It Really Means When people hear the word tokenisation, it can sound like another buzzword from the tech world. But when the Bank for International Settlements pays attention to something, it’s because it’s…
nly when platforms offer buyback features, which come at the cost of higher insolvency risk. https://t.co/Pb99Ojb6sD https://t.co/zxKsHjwVHI - Bank for International Settlements tweet
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Quartr
Chances are you come across this company's products every day. Yet, over its 150-year history, Ball has reinvented itself many times.
Here are five visuals from our Ball deep dive:
1. The lifecycle of an aluminum can: https://t.co/xlWCT1IeOt
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Chances are you come across this company's products every day. Yet, over its 150-year history, Ball has reinvented itself many times.
Here are five visuals from our Ball deep dive:
1. The lifecycle of an aluminum can: https://t.co/xlWCT1IeOt
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
App Economy Insights is now #4 on Substack’s Rising in Finance!
Grateful for everyone here 🙏 https://t.co/1iZ6vk8Iyx
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App Economy Insights is now #4 on Substack’s Rising in Finance!
Grateful for everyone here 🙏 https://t.co/1iZ6vk8Iyx
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Google operates in every layer of the AI value chain.
✅ Hardware Layer: Design their own TPUs.
✅ Infrastructure Layer: Google Cloud for compute.
✅ Data Layer: Consume training data from Search, YouTube, etc.
✅ Foundational Layer: Leading model in Gemini 3.
✅ Application Layer: Deploy AI capabilities to Search, Gmail, Maps, etc.
Can any company replicate this?
$GOOGL
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Google operates in every layer of the AI value chain.
✅ Hardware Layer: Design their own TPUs.
✅ Infrastructure Layer: Google Cloud for compute.
✅ Data Layer: Consume training data from Search, YouTube, etc.
✅ Foundational Layer: Leading model in Gemini 3.
✅ Application Layer: Deploy AI capabilities to Search, Gmail, Maps, etc.
Can any company replicate this?
$GOOGL
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Offshore
Video
Fiscal.ai
RT @BradoCapital: The newly improved price chart feature is LIVE.
📆 No more clunky date slider. Replaced with a date picker to make it easy to understand performance during exact time periods.
📊 We used that extra space to show more information on the metric you've selected whether it is price, drawdowns, total return, market cap etc.
📈 There is also much better data frequency during smaller time periods now.
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RT @BradoCapital: The newly improved price chart feature is LIVE.
📆 No more clunky date slider. Replaced with a date picker to make it easy to understand performance during exact time periods.
📊 We used that extra space to show more information on the metric you've selected whether it is price, drawdowns, total return, market cap etc.
📈 There is also much better data frequency during smaller time periods now.
OK big updates...
⚡️ We just pushed backend improvements to the "Financials" tab. Everything looks and works the exact same, but you will notice everything is very snappy and quickly moves to other Companies.
🌎 The same speed of earnings updates, data history and audibility to the filing that we have for US companies will be live for Canada and ADRs too. Launches Wednesday.
📈 The price chart on Overview got a facelift. You will be able to select specific dates to review, get more data intraday, realtime updates, better exporting options and more. In final QA right now and can probably go live on Monday.
Have a great weekend. tweet
WealthyReadings
Another day with the market closed. And they say Americans are the hardest-working people who never take holidays. More days off than French.
The European I am is asking for one thing only: open the market. The weak can rest.
Anywhoo. Happy Thanksgiving, I guess.
Whatever.
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Another day with the market closed. And they say Americans are the hardest-working people who never take holidays. More days off than French.
The European I am is asking for one thing only: open the market. The weak can rest.
Anywhoo. Happy Thanksgiving, I guess.
Whatever.
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