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EndGame Macro
Now imagine why it has to dangle 10.5% when Treasurys only pay 3.6%
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Now imagine why it has to dangle 10.5% when Treasurys only pay 3.6%
Imagine a bank powered by Bitcoin. https://t.co/svrtfbuX2y tweet
Wasteland Capital
One of the reasons all these scammers & grifters on here, on CNBC or Wall Street succeed over time is that people are ashamed when they fall for the Ponzis, scams and pump-and-dumps.
People would rather not admit to themselves or to others that they were dumb, naive, or both.
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One of the reasons all these scammers & grifters on here, on CNBC or Wall Street succeed over time is that people are ashamed when they fall for the Ponzis, scams and pump-and-dumps.
People would rather not admit to themselves or to others that they were dumb, naive, or both.
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EndGame Macro
Why Hassett Makes Sense for Trump Right Now
If you look at this race through Trump’s eyes instead of through Wall Street’s, the betting markets suddenly make perfect sense. Hassett isn’t leading because he’s the most academic or the most central bankerish. He’s leading because he checks the boxes Trump actually cares about.
For starters, he’s already inside the administration. Trump trusts people he’s worked with before, and Hassett has been in his orbit twice, running the Council of Economic Advisers in the first term and now running the National Economic Council. That relationship alone puts him ahead of guys like Warsh or Rieder who aren’t part of Trump’s inner ecosystem. Add the fact that Hassett has spent years defending Trump publicly, and suddenly his surge above 50% looks a lot less surprising.
But the real glue is policy. Hassett has been openly critical of the Fed for being too slow, too cautious, and too political. He’s repeatedly argued for faster, larger cuts, and he’s comfortable using rules based frameworks to justify them. For a White House dealing with rising delinquencies, heavier layoffs, and a fragile fiscal backdrop, a Fed chair who wants easier policy and can explain it in a neutral rules wrapper is incredibly convenient. Markets hear dovish. Trump hears I can deliver growth again. And crypto folks hear one of us, which doesn’t hurt politically given where that voter base is drifting.
What a Hassett Fed Would Actually Mean
A Hassett led Fed wouldn’t be boring. In a downturn, he’d probably cut faster and earlier than Powell would, and risk assets would love that…equities, duration, crypto, the whole lot. That’s the upside.
The trade off is independence and credibility. Hassett’s entire professional life has been inside conservative think tanks, GOP policy shops, and Republican campaigns. That doesn’t make him unqualified but it does mean the Fed would feel more like an extension of the administration than it has in decades. Markets would adjust to that reality quickly. Long term inflation expectations might drift higher. Bond investors would demand a little more premium. And every decision would be picked apart for political influence, fair or not.
There’s also the optics: an openly pro crypto chair who owns a big Coinbase stake may be perfectly ethical in practice, but the perception risk is real. Any crypto related regulatory move would instantly generate questions.
Still, if you think the economy is heading into a harder part of the cycle and a real funding crunch is somewhere on the horizon then having a chair who isn’t afraid to slam rates to the floor has value. Hassett would not hesitate the way Powell did in 2019–2020. He’d hit the gas early.
So yes, the markets probably have it right. Hassett is the candidate who best aligns with Trump’s goals, message, and instincts. But if he gets the job, expect a Fed that acts faster, cuts deeper and feels more political than at any point since the 1970s.
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Why Hassett Makes Sense for Trump Right Now
If you look at this race through Trump’s eyes instead of through Wall Street’s, the betting markets suddenly make perfect sense. Hassett isn’t leading because he’s the most academic or the most central bankerish. He’s leading because he checks the boxes Trump actually cares about.
For starters, he’s already inside the administration. Trump trusts people he’s worked with before, and Hassett has been in his orbit twice, running the Council of Economic Advisers in the first term and now running the National Economic Council. That relationship alone puts him ahead of guys like Warsh or Rieder who aren’t part of Trump’s inner ecosystem. Add the fact that Hassett has spent years defending Trump publicly, and suddenly his surge above 50% looks a lot less surprising.
But the real glue is policy. Hassett has been openly critical of the Fed for being too slow, too cautious, and too political. He’s repeatedly argued for faster, larger cuts, and he’s comfortable using rules based frameworks to justify them. For a White House dealing with rising delinquencies, heavier layoffs, and a fragile fiscal backdrop, a Fed chair who wants easier policy and can explain it in a neutral rules wrapper is incredibly convenient. Markets hear dovish. Trump hears I can deliver growth again. And crypto folks hear one of us, which doesn’t hurt politically given where that voter base is drifting.
What a Hassett Fed Would Actually Mean
A Hassett led Fed wouldn’t be boring. In a downturn, he’d probably cut faster and earlier than Powell would, and risk assets would love that…equities, duration, crypto, the whole lot. That’s the upside.
The trade off is independence and credibility. Hassett’s entire professional life has been inside conservative think tanks, GOP policy shops, and Republican campaigns. That doesn’t make him unqualified but it does mean the Fed would feel more like an extension of the administration than it has in decades. Markets would adjust to that reality quickly. Long term inflation expectations might drift higher. Bond investors would demand a little more premium. And every decision would be picked apart for political influence, fair or not.
There’s also the optics: an openly pro crypto chair who owns a big Coinbase stake may be perfectly ethical in practice, but the perception risk is real. Any crypto related regulatory move would instantly generate questions.
Still, if you think the economy is heading into a harder part of the cycle and a real funding crunch is somewhere on the horizon then having a chair who isn’t afraid to slam rates to the floor has value. Hassett would not hesitate the way Powell did in 2019–2020. He’d hit the gas early.
So yes, the markets probably have it right. Hassett is the candidate who best aligns with Trump’s goals, message, and instincts. But if he gets the job, expect a Fed that acts faster, cuts deeper and feels more political than at any point since the 1970s.
*HASSETT EMERGES AS TOP PICK AS FED SEARCH NEARS END, PEOPLE SAY
*KEVIN HASSETT SEEN AS FRONTRUNNER IN TRUMP FED CHAIR SEARCH
First time anyone has traded above 50%. https://t.co/4EhCGxA6UY tweet
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AkhenOsiris
RT @trader_53: Wallstreetbets top tickers searched
"TPU" is #6
what a time to be alive https://t.co/xWRxu1w9oM
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RT @trader_53: Wallstreetbets top tickers searched
"TPU" is #6
what a time to be alive https://t.co/xWRxu1w9oM
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AkhenOsiris
OpenAI $MSFT $NVDA $ORCL
HSBC updates OpenAI model:
HSBC’s US software and services team has today updated its OpenAI model to include the company’s $250bn rental of cloud compute from Microsoft, announced late in October, and its $38bn rental of cloud compute from Amazon announced less than a week later. The latest two deals add an extra four gigawatts of compute power to OpenAI’s requirements, bringing the contracted amount to 36 gigawatts.
Based on a total cumulative deal value of up to $1.8tn, OpenAI is heading for a data centre rental bill of about $620bn a year — though only a third of the contracted power is expected to be online by the end of this decade.
For what it’s worth, we can summarise a few of the assumptions HSBC is making for the estimates above:
Total consumer AI revenue will be $129bn by 2030, of which $87bn comes from search and $24bn comes from advertising.
OpenAI’s consumer market share slips to 56 per cent by 2030, from around 71 per cent this year. Anthropic and xAI are both given market shares in the single digits, a mystery “others” is assigned 22 per cent, and Google is excluded entirely.
Enterprise AI will be generating $386bn in annual revenue by 2030, though OpenAI’s market share is set at 37 per cent from about 50 per cent currently. Everyone else stays more or less where they are now, market share wise.
The bottom line is that, for OpenAI, it’s nowhere close to enough.
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OpenAI $MSFT $NVDA $ORCL
HSBC updates OpenAI model:
HSBC’s US software and services team has today updated its OpenAI model to include the company’s $250bn rental of cloud compute from Microsoft, announced late in October, and its $38bn rental of cloud compute from Amazon announced less than a week later. The latest two deals add an extra four gigawatts of compute power to OpenAI’s requirements, bringing the contracted amount to 36 gigawatts.
Based on a total cumulative deal value of up to $1.8tn, OpenAI is heading for a data centre rental bill of about $620bn a year — though only a third of the contracted power is expected to be online by the end of this decade.
For what it’s worth, we can summarise a few of the assumptions HSBC is making for the estimates above:
Total consumer AI revenue will be $129bn by 2030, of which $87bn comes from search and $24bn comes from advertising.
OpenAI’s consumer market share slips to 56 per cent by 2030, from around 71 per cent this year. Anthropic and xAI are both given market shares in the single digits, a mystery “others” is assigned 22 per cent, and Google is excluded entirely.
Enterprise AI will be generating $386bn in annual revenue by 2030, though OpenAI’s market share is set at 37 per cent from about 50 per cent currently. Everyone else stays more or less where they are now, market share wise.
The bottom line is that, for OpenAI, it’s nowhere close to enough.
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WealthyReadings
The only valid take from the $GOOG x $NVDA drama is that no one cares about $AMD.
They aren't serious competition to those two giants.
As expected.
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The only valid take from the $GOOG x $NVDA drama is that no one cares about $AMD.
They aren't serious competition to those two giants.
As expected.
$AMD hot take 🔥
The deal with OpenAI is made out of weakness, not strength.
Management kowns they aren't taking shares so they went to OpenAI to use their influence to push their products within datacenters. It's marketing.
OpenAI will do it because of the 10% equity which will allow them to withdraw liquidity from a deal which didn't cost them much - more than they commitment in GPUs as the contract doens't specify that they have to be the sole buyers for the 6GW.
OpenAI will work with AMD as a core strategic compute partner to drive large-scale deployments of AMD technology starting with the AMD Instinct MI450 series and rack-scale AI solutions and extending to future generations.
They'll probably cash in to pay for the rest of their commitments - and buy more $NVDA GPUs.
That being said, we are involved in the markets to make money. And $AMD investors made a lot of it from this deal, so congrats to them!
But fundamentally... It doesn't seem to be the healthiest deal to me. tweet
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WealthyReadings
🚨 EVERYONE IS GETTING THE $META × $GOOG × $NVDA DRAMA WRONG
The reality isn't that $META chose TPUs.
The reality is that $META needs always more compute.
This situation should be the signal the market was looking for to accept that the AI trade and the compute supply constraint is real, for longer.
$META's been starving for compute for months. They built datacenters at full speed, took on debt, went to external providers, got rejected by $NBIS and probably other neoclouds.
$META cannot find compute.
And $NVDA's GPUs are getting longer to produce due to deeper personalization.
Payment delays + inventories do not translate demand issues, they translate supply chain constraints. GPUs just can’t be produced and customized fast enough.
So $META turning to $GOOG isn’t about “better infra.” It’s about $GOOG having an independent pipeline and possibly some capacity left or soon to be online, while others don’t.
This isn’t a loss for $NVDA. It’s a symptom of overwhelming compute demand.
You'll find detailed content below to go further in all the concepts shared here. Everything is data backed.
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🚨 EVERYONE IS GETTING THE $META × $GOOG × $NVDA DRAMA WRONG
The reality isn't that $META chose TPUs.
The reality is that $META needs always more compute.
This situation should be the signal the market was looking for to accept that the AI trade and the compute supply constraint is real, for longer.
$META's been starving for compute for months. They built datacenters at full speed, took on debt, went to external providers, got rejected by $NBIS and probably other neoclouds.
$META cannot find compute.
And $NVDA's GPUs are getting longer to produce due to deeper personalization.
Payment delays + inventories do not translate demand issues, they translate supply chain constraints. GPUs just can’t be produced and customized fast enough.
So $META turning to $GOOG isn’t about “better infra.” It’s about $GOOG having an independent pipeline and possibly some capacity left or soon to be online, while others don’t.
This isn’t a loss for $NVDA. It’s a symptom of overwhelming compute demand.
You'll find detailed content below to go further in all the concepts shared here. Everything is data backed.
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Wasteland Capital
Retail check 2: $ANF +38% $KSS +43% today post earnings due to major sales acceleration, solid margins & guide. Now also strong Q acceleration from $URBN.
The “weak consumer” narrative? In shambles.
Actual data winning over poor macro takes & dumb excuses for bad execution.
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Retail check 2: $ANF +38% $KSS +43% today post earnings due to major sales acceleration, solid margins & guide. Now also strong Q acceleration from $URBN.
The “weak consumer” narrative? In shambles.
Actual data winning over poor macro takes & dumb excuses for bad execution.
Retail check: KILLER earnings reports from $ROST and $GAP, after the blow-out from $WMT yesterday. All showed strong acceleration across the board in Q3, and guidance was even stronger. Definitely no weakness!
Well-managed companies killing it, dumb ones blaming “the consumer”. tweet
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Wasteland Capital (@ecommerceshares) on X
Retail check: KILLER earnings reports from $ROST and $GAP, after the blow-out from $WMT yesterday. All showed strong acceleration across the board in Q3, and guidance was even stronger. Definitely no weakness!
Well-managed companies killing it, dumb ones…
Well-managed companies killing it, dumb ones…
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App Economy Insights
How They Make Money
📊 November Report is out!
100+ companies visualized
Download the full report 👇
https://t.co/g1hcWBkQcx
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How They Make Money
📊 November Report is out!
100+ companies visualized
Download the full report 👇
https://t.co/g1hcWBkQcx
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