Offshore
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Quartr
The most recognized color in the world? Coca-Cola red.
Yesterday, our friends at Acquired dropped their 4h+ episode on Coca-Cola. Don't miss it. https://t.co/KNZ10Lqm2F
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The most recognized color in the world? Coca-Cola red.
Yesterday, our friends at Acquired dropped their 4h+ episode on Coca-Cola. Don't miss it. https://t.co/KNZ10Lqm2F
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
More Diplomas, Lower Scores: What This Chart Really Says About Our Schools
You’ve got two lines moving in opposite directions over the last fifty years. The high school graduation rate climbs steadily from the low 70s into the mid 80s. More students are getting diplomas than ever. At the same time, the average SAT score drifts down, especially over the last decade. So on paper, we’re producing more graduates but their performance on a national academic benchmark is weakening.
That tension is the whole story. A higher share of kids finishing school is a good thing in theory. But when that rise is paired with falling test performance, it’s hard not to ask what exactly the diploma is measuring anymore.
Why This Is Probably Happening
Part of it is simply a bigger funnel. In the 70s or 80s, dropping out was far more common and fewer students even bothered to take the SAT. As graduation rates rise and college becomes the assumed next step, you pull a wider mix of students into the testing pool. Anytime you broaden the sample, the average tends to fall unless the entire system gets meaningfully stronger. There’s not much evidence of that here.
The other piece is structural pressure. Schools are judged heavily on graduation rates, not on whether students can write well, handle math, or think critically. That dynamic invites grade inflation, credit recovery shortcuts, easier coursework, and a softer push on standards. You can raise graduation numbers without raising actual mastery and this chart looks like the long-run outcome of that tradeoff.
Add in the modern learning environment with phones, fragmented attention, less deep reading, more stress at home, and the rise of test optional admissions and you get a recipe where finishing high school is easier, but performing well on a demanding standardized test becomes harder.
We’ve made the credential easier to earn without making the underlying skills stronger. The chart isn’t saying kids are less capable, it’s showing how the system has changed what it rewards.
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More Diplomas, Lower Scores: What This Chart Really Says About Our Schools
You’ve got two lines moving in opposite directions over the last fifty years. The high school graduation rate climbs steadily from the low 70s into the mid 80s. More students are getting diplomas than ever. At the same time, the average SAT score drifts down, especially over the last decade. So on paper, we’re producing more graduates but their performance on a national academic benchmark is weakening.
That tension is the whole story. A higher share of kids finishing school is a good thing in theory. But when that rise is paired with falling test performance, it’s hard not to ask what exactly the diploma is measuring anymore.
Why This Is Probably Happening
Part of it is simply a bigger funnel. In the 70s or 80s, dropping out was far more common and fewer students even bothered to take the SAT. As graduation rates rise and college becomes the assumed next step, you pull a wider mix of students into the testing pool. Anytime you broaden the sample, the average tends to fall unless the entire system gets meaningfully stronger. There’s not much evidence of that here.
The other piece is structural pressure. Schools are judged heavily on graduation rates, not on whether students can write well, handle math, or think critically. That dynamic invites grade inflation, credit recovery shortcuts, easier coursework, and a softer push on standards. You can raise graduation numbers without raising actual mastery and this chart looks like the long-run outcome of that tradeoff.
Add in the modern learning environment with phones, fragmented attention, less deep reading, more stress at home, and the rise of test optional admissions and you get a recipe where finishing high school is easier, but performing well on a demanding standardized test becomes harder.
We’ve made the credential easier to earn without making the underlying skills stronger. The chart isn’t saying kids are less capable, it’s showing how the system has changed what it rewards.
What’s the point of more people being educated if the education standards deteriorate? https://t.co/lkt79MqadU tweet
Offshore
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App Economy Insights
$BABA Alibaba Q2 FY26 (Sept. quarter):
☁️ Cloud accelerated +34% Y/Y to $5.6B.
• Revenue +5% Y/Y to $34.8B ($0.6B beat).
• Excluding disposals, revenue +15% Y/Y.
• Operating margin 2% (-13pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPADS $0.61 ($0.20 miss). https://t.co/QE80Lj3PXL
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$BABA Alibaba Q2 FY26 (Sept. quarter):
☁️ Cloud accelerated +34% Y/Y to $5.6B.
• Revenue +5% Y/Y to $34.8B ($0.6B beat).
• Excluding disposals, revenue +15% Y/Y.
• Operating margin 2% (-13pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPADS $0.61 ($0.20 miss). https://t.co/QE80Lj3PXL
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
If You Understand This Map, You Understand Africa’s Future
If you look at Africa through this kind of population density map, you start seeing something deeper than dots on a continent. You’re looking at where people choose to live when left to their own incentives, where water is reliable, where food can be grown, where trade naturally flows, where elevation cuts the heat, and where a day’s work has the best chance of paying off.
And once you know how to read that pattern, the whole continent reorganizes itself in front of you.
Instead of 54 countries, you see three massive demographic engines forming on their own terms.
Africa’s Three Natural Power Corridors
The West African corridor From Abidjan to Lagos and inland to Kano
That glowing belt is one of the most important facts in the 21st century global economy. Tens of millions live along that coastal strip because that’s where the rainfall is kinder, the port access is natural, the soil is usable, and the informal economy is unbelievably dense. If governance stays even halfway functional, this region becomes one of the biggest urban networks on Earth.
The Nile Horn And Great Lakes Arc
The bright spine along the Nile, the Ethiopian highlands, and around Lake Victoria is a 4,000 year old trade corridor that only looks new on a modern map. People settle here because altitude cools the air, rivers solve the water problem, and fertile land makes population density sustainable. It’s one of the few regions in Africa where population density and food production can actually scale together.
Southern Africa’s triangle: Gauteng, Coastal KZN, Cape Town
This cluster glows not because the land is perfect, but because the industrial base is. Johannesburg Pretoria is the economic engine, Durban is the shipping artery, and Cape Town is the brain trust. This region has the best infrastructure to population ratio on the continent, which is why it holds so much of Africa’s formal GDP.
My Read
The glowing clusters are Africa’s economic destiny zones. They tell you where transportation networks want to develop, where capital naturally gravitates, and where political stability pays the highest dividends.
The harsh truth is if these regions get reliable electricity, functioning ports, and even moderately effective governance, Africa will experience one of the largest urban demographic booms in human history.
If they don’t and if power grids crumble, food prices spike, or climate pressure gets worse these same density belts become engines of migration, instability, and political volatility.
Population density is not just about where people live. It’s a map of future opportunity, future conflict, and future capital flows.
And this map is telling you exactly where Africa’s next 30 years will be decided.
tweet
If You Understand This Map, You Understand Africa’s Future
If you look at Africa through this kind of population density map, you start seeing something deeper than dots on a continent. You’re looking at where people choose to live when left to their own incentives, where water is reliable, where food can be grown, where trade naturally flows, where elevation cuts the heat, and where a day’s work has the best chance of paying off.
And once you know how to read that pattern, the whole continent reorganizes itself in front of you.
Instead of 54 countries, you see three massive demographic engines forming on their own terms.
Africa’s Three Natural Power Corridors
The West African corridor From Abidjan to Lagos and inland to Kano
That glowing belt is one of the most important facts in the 21st century global economy. Tens of millions live along that coastal strip because that’s where the rainfall is kinder, the port access is natural, the soil is usable, and the informal economy is unbelievably dense. If governance stays even halfway functional, this region becomes one of the biggest urban networks on Earth.
The Nile Horn And Great Lakes Arc
The bright spine along the Nile, the Ethiopian highlands, and around Lake Victoria is a 4,000 year old trade corridor that only looks new on a modern map. People settle here because altitude cools the air, rivers solve the water problem, and fertile land makes population density sustainable. It’s one of the few regions in Africa where population density and food production can actually scale together.
Southern Africa’s triangle: Gauteng, Coastal KZN, Cape Town
This cluster glows not because the land is perfect, but because the industrial base is. Johannesburg Pretoria is the economic engine, Durban is the shipping artery, and Cape Town is the brain trust. This region has the best infrastructure to population ratio on the continent, which is why it holds so much of Africa’s formal GDP.
My Read
The glowing clusters are Africa’s economic destiny zones. They tell you where transportation networks want to develop, where capital naturally gravitates, and where political stability pays the highest dividends.
The harsh truth is if these regions get reliable electricity, functioning ports, and even moderately effective governance, Africa will experience one of the largest urban demographic booms in human history.
If they don’t and if power grids crumble, food prices spike, or climate pressure gets worse these same density belts become engines of migration, instability, and political volatility.
Population density is not just about where people live. It’s a map of future opportunity, future conflict, and future capital flows.
And this map is telling you exactly where Africa’s next 30 years will be decided.
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WealthyReadings
🔥 $BABA quarter just confirmed the 2 pillars of my bull case, the ones I shared below $80 more than a year ago.
1️⃣ China is entering its AI transformation.
2️⃣ Household consumption is set to accelerate.
Both were highlighted as priorities for China’s next 5-year plan. And unlike Europe, when China sets a priority… they execute with focus and aggressivity.
I was bullish below $80.
I was buying then.
I’m still bullish.
I’m still buying.
tweet
🔥 $BABA quarter just confirmed the 2 pillars of my bull case, the ones I shared below $80 more than a year ago.
1️⃣ China is entering its AI transformation.
2️⃣ Household consumption is set to accelerate.
Both were highlighted as priorities for China’s next 5-year plan. And unlike Europe, when China sets a priority… they execute with focus and aggressivity.
I was bullish below $80.
I was buying then.
I’m still bullish.
I’m still buying.
tweet
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
🔥 $BABA quarter just confirmed the 2 pillars of my bull case, the ones I shared below $80 more than a year ago.
1️⃣ China is entering its AI transformation.
2️⃣ Household consumption is set to accelerate.
Both were highlighted as priorities for China’s next 5-year plan. And unlike Europe, when China sets a priority… they execute with focus and aggressivity.
I was bullish below $80.
I was buying then.
I’m still bullish.
I’m still buying.
You can find a detailed review explaining everything from the link in bio, from how great the quarter was to my price target passing by my investing plan.
tweet
🔥 $BABA quarter just confirmed the 2 pillars of my bull case, the ones I shared below $80 more than a year ago.
1️⃣ China is entering its AI transformation.
2️⃣ Household consumption is set to accelerate.
Both were highlighted as priorities for China’s next 5-year plan. And unlike Europe, when China sets a priority… they execute with focus and aggressivity.
I was bullish below $80.
I was buying then.
I’m still bullish.
I’m still buying.
You can find a detailed review explaining everything from the link in bio, from how great the quarter was to my price target passing by my investing plan.
tweet
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
Happy $TMDX yearly high 🔥
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Happy $TMDX yearly high 🔥
$TMDX is back on a clear uptrend, setting up a new yearly high today.
We could have some short term volatility but with flight data as it is and without any black swan, closing above $145 in the next days/weeks sets us up for that new ATH sooner rather than later.
Time to sit and relax. Or to buy volatility if it happens. tweet
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
$BABA is $GOOG + $AMZN + $META in China.
And yet it trades at lower mutliples than each of those companies individually, while the country is starting its AI revolution and its consumption boost.
That is the size of the opportunity ahead. https://t.co/g6FctNZBta
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$BABA is $GOOG + $AMZN + $META in China.
And yet it trades at lower mutliples than each of those companies individually, while the country is starting its AI revolution and its consumption boost.
That is the size of the opportunity ahead. https://t.co/g6FctNZBta
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
When Mutual Funds Have No Cushion Left
This is a picture of mutual funds running with almost no cushion left. Cash balances both in percentage terms and in actual dollars have fallen to levels we haven’t seen in nearly twenty years. Even during the hype periods of 2007 or late 2021, managers kept more cash on hand than they do now. When cash drops to 1.2%, it’s not because everyone suddenly became fearless, it’s because the system pushes them into staying fully invested whether they like it or not.
This is what happens when your job is tied to beating a benchmark every quarter. If the market keeps drifting higher and you’re sitting in cash, you underperform. Clients pull money. Boards ask questions. So instead of building a buffer when the macro turns soft, managers often do the opposite: they press the gas and hope they can unwind later. It’s less about conviction and more about career survival.
Why It Makes Sense… and Why It’s Dangerous
On the surface, the timing makes sense. The Fed has already started cutting, the market keeps telling itself a soft landing is possible, and liquidity narratives are everywhere. In that environment, holding cash feels like admitting defeat. So funds stay fully deployed, dips get bought instantly, and cash balances grind lower and lower.
But this is also the exact setup that has burned them before. In 2007, cash balances were near lows right before the credit markets cracked. In 2018, funds were similarly pinned when liquidity dried up into year end and forced selling accelerated. And in 2020, being fully invested meant managers had no flexibility when markets went vertical…down first, then up and they spent months chasing the rebound.
The risk isn’t just that something goes wrong. It’s that when it does, mutual funds can’t act as stabilizers. They don’t have cash to buy weakness, they become sellers. And when a large part of the market is forced to sell at the same time, normal pullbacks turn into air pockets. Liquidity disappears. Bid ask spreads widen. Temporary volatility starts to feel like something heavier.
So this chart isn’t just about positioning. It’s a reminder of how markets behave late in the cycle: everyone leans forward at the same time, the room gets crowded, and nobody notices the exit door until someone trips.
tweet
When Mutual Funds Have No Cushion Left
This is a picture of mutual funds running with almost no cushion left. Cash balances both in percentage terms and in actual dollars have fallen to levels we haven’t seen in nearly twenty years. Even during the hype periods of 2007 or late 2021, managers kept more cash on hand than they do now. When cash drops to 1.2%, it’s not because everyone suddenly became fearless, it’s because the system pushes them into staying fully invested whether they like it or not.
This is what happens when your job is tied to beating a benchmark every quarter. If the market keeps drifting higher and you’re sitting in cash, you underperform. Clients pull money. Boards ask questions. So instead of building a buffer when the macro turns soft, managers often do the opposite: they press the gas and hope they can unwind later. It’s less about conviction and more about career survival.
Why It Makes Sense… and Why It’s Dangerous
On the surface, the timing makes sense. The Fed has already started cutting, the market keeps telling itself a soft landing is possible, and liquidity narratives are everywhere. In that environment, holding cash feels like admitting defeat. So funds stay fully deployed, dips get bought instantly, and cash balances grind lower and lower.
But this is also the exact setup that has burned them before. In 2007, cash balances were near lows right before the credit markets cracked. In 2018, funds were similarly pinned when liquidity dried up into year end and forced selling accelerated. And in 2020, being fully invested meant managers had no flexibility when markets went vertical…down first, then up and they spent months chasing the rebound.
The risk isn’t just that something goes wrong. It’s that when it does, mutual funds can’t act as stabilizers. They don’t have cash to buy weakness, they become sellers. And when a large part of the market is forced to sell at the same time, normal pullbacks turn into air pockets. Liquidity disappears. Bid ask spreads widen. Temporary volatility starts to feel like something heavier.
So this chart isn’t just about positioning. It’s a reminder of how markets behave late in the cycle: everyone leans forward at the same time, the room gets crowded, and nobody notices the exit door until someone trips.
Mutual funds cash allocation down to a record low, 1.2% according to GS. https://t.co/HWHLrX4BKX tweet