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EndGame Macro
When Growth, Surprises, and Inflation Roll Over Together, the Cycle Is Talking
You’ve basically got three ways of tracking the momentum of U.S. growth, all plotted as 4 month changes, so this is about whether things are getting better or worse, not the absolute level…
•Blue – “Underlying Growth Nowcast”: a composite model of real economy data (output, jobs, spending, etc.). When it’s above zero, growth is accelerating vs the prior few months; below zero, it’s decelerating.
•Green – CESI: the Citi Economic Surprise Index. This doesn’t ask “is the data good?”, it asks “is it better or worse than economists expected?” Positive means a string of upside surprises; negative means the data keeps disappointing.
•Yellow – 1 year inflation swap: market pricing of inflation over the next year, again shown as a 4 month change. If it’s falling hard, it usually means traders think demand is cooling and pricing power is fading.
From early 2023 through mid 2025, these three lines swing around but broadly move in waves: bursts of improvement where growth and surprises pick up and inflation expectations rise, followed by air pockets where they all sag.
The important part is the right edge of the chart. Since mid 2025, all three have rolled over together and pushed negative: the growth nowcast is slowing, the surprise index has slipped from strong positive to the downside, and the move in 1 year inflation swaps has turned sharply lower. That’s the market and the data jointly saying that “The U.S. is losing momentum.”
Why they’re rolling over now
This is what late cycle looks like…
For two years the economy’s been digesting higher rates, tighter credit, and the tail end of post COVID stimulus. It held up longer than most people expected, but the bill always comes due with a lag.
•Households are getting squeezed. Excess savings are mostly gone, credit card balances have climbed, and delinquencies on cards, autos and student loans have moved up. People are still spending, but more of it is funded with expensive debt and less with real income growth. That’s a classic recipe for slower consumption ahead.
•Business confidence is cooling. Hiring plans have softened, hours worked have edged down, and capex intentions aren’t what they were in 2021–22. Companies are still profitable, but they’re more cautious, especially in interest sensitive areas like housing, CRE, and small business.
•Policy is shifting from brake to “we might have gone too far.” The Fed has already cut twice and is about to end QT. They’re doing that because the incoming data, especially on activity and the labor market is getting softer and the risk of overtightening is rising. The CESI rolling over is the market realizing the stream of “better than expected” reports is drying up.
•Markets are repricing the next year. When 1 year inflation swaps fall this hard, it’s usually not because everyone suddenly discovered they love low inflation; it’s because they think demand and pricing power are going to be weaker, and that the Fed will be easing into a slowdown.
Put simply the long and variable lags of tight policy are finally showing up in the growth metrics. The chart is just the visual of that process.
How to read this
This is saying the second derivative of growth has flipped and things are no longer getting better; they’re gradually getting worse.
Historically, when you see the growth nowcast, the surprise index, and short term inflation expectations all roll over together, you’re in the zone where…
•the Fed starts to pivot or cut (already happening),
•markets oscillate between “soft landing” and “something is breaking,” and
•risk assets become more sensitive to every incremental piece of data.
So the message here isn’t doom, it’s timing…the U.S. didn’t dodge the cycle; it just delayed it. These lines are telling you the delay is over and the slowdown is finally working its way through the system.
A “growth scare” appears to be brewing.
[...]
When Growth, Surprises, and Inflation Roll Over Together, the Cycle Is Talking
You’ve basically got three ways of tracking the momentum of U.S. growth, all plotted as 4 month changes, so this is about whether things are getting better or worse, not the absolute level…
•Blue – “Underlying Growth Nowcast”: a composite model of real economy data (output, jobs, spending, etc.). When it’s above zero, growth is accelerating vs the prior few months; below zero, it’s decelerating.
•Green – CESI: the Citi Economic Surprise Index. This doesn’t ask “is the data good?”, it asks “is it better or worse than economists expected?” Positive means a string of upside surprises; negative means the data keeps disappointing.
•Yellow – 1 year inflation swap: market pricing of inflation over the next year, again shown as a 4 month change. If it’s falling hard, it usually means traders think demand is cooling and pricing power is fading.
From early 2023 through mid 2025, these three lines swing around but broadly move in waves: bursts of improvement where growth and surprises pick up and inflation expectations rise, followed by air pockets where they all sag.
The important part is the right edge of the chart. Since mid 2025, all three have rolled over together and pushed negative: the growth nowcast is slowing, the surprise index has slipped from strong positive to the downside, and the move in 1 year inflation swaps has turned sharply lower. That’s the market and the data jointly saying that “The U.S. is losing momentum.”
Why they’re rolling over now
This is what late cycle looks like…
For two years the economy’s been digesting higher rates, tighter credit, and the tail end of post COVID stimulus. It held up longer than most people expected, but the bill always comes due with a lag.
•Households are getting squeezed. Excess savings are mostly gone, credit card balances have climbed, and delinquencies on cards, autos and student loans have moved up. People are still spending, but more of it is funded with expensive debt and less with real income growth. That’s a classic recipe for slower consumption ahead.
•Business confidence is cooling. Hiring plans have softened, hours worked have edged down, and capex intentions aren’t what they were in 2021–22. Companies are still profitable, but they’re more cautious, especially in interest sensitive areas like housing, CRE, and small business.
•Policy is shifting from brake to “we might have gone too far.” The Fed has already cut twice and is about to end QT. They’re doing that because the incoming data, especially on activity and the labor market is getting softer and the risk of overtightening is rising. The CESI rolling over is the market realizing the stream of “better than expected” reports is drying up.
•Markets are repricing the next year. When 1 year inflation swaps fall this hard, it’s usually not because everyone suddenly discovered they love low inflation; it’s because they think demand and pricing power are going to be weaker, and that the Fed will be easing into a slowdown.
Put simply the long and variable lags of tight policy are finally showing up in the growth metrics. The chart is just the visual of that process.
How to read this
This is saying the second derivative of growth has flipped and things are no longer getting better; they’re gradually getting worse.
Historically, when you see the growth nowcast, the surprise index, and short term inflation expectations all roll over together, you’re in the zone where…
•the Fed starts to pivot or cut (already happening),
•markets oscillate between “soft landing” and “something is breaking,” and
•risk assets become more sensitive to every incremental piece of data.
So the message here isn’t doom, it’s timing…the U.S. didn’t dodge the cycle; it just delayed it. These lines are telling you the delay is over and the slowdown is finally working its way through the system.
A “growth scare” appears to be brewing.
[...]
Offshore
EndGame Macro When Growth, Surprises, and Inflation Roll Over Together, the Cycle Is Talking You’ve basically got three ways of tracking the momentum of U.S. growth, all plotted as 4 month changes, so this is about whether things are getting better or worse…
So what’s a growth scare?
It’s when investors suddenly become worried that an economy is slowing down more than expected.
It doesn’t mean a serious growth slowdown or recession is necessarily happening.
It just means the fear of weaker growth spikes quickly.
And we're definitely seeing metrics of U.S. growth starting to roll over now.
Here you can see the four-month change for:
🔵 U.S. underlying growth nowcast - estimate of real-time growth
🟢 Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI) - measuring whether economic data is coming in above or below expectations
🟡 1-year U.S. inflation swap - market expectations of what inflation will be over the next year
All three have been starting to roll over from roughly early September. - Milk Road Macro tweet
It’s when investors suddenly become worried that an economy is slowing down more than expected.
It doesn’t mean a serious growth slowdown or recession is necessarily happening.
It just means the fear of weaker growth spikes quickly.
And we're definitely seeing metrics of U.S. growth starting to roll over now.
Here you can see the four-month change for:
🔵 U.S. underlying growth nowcast - estimate of real-time growth
🟢 Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI) - measuring whether economic data is coming in above or below expectations
🟡 1-year U.S. inflation swap - market expectations of what inflation will be over the next year
All three have been starting to roll over from roughly early September. - Milk Road Macro tweet
Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
On Running v. HOKA
On Running continues to take market share from HOKA in the athletic footwear category.
$ONON $DECK https://t.co/db5TzvJ8Xy
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On Running v. HOKA
On Running continues to take market share from HOKA in the athletic footwear category.
$ONON $DECK https://t.co/db5TzvJ8Xy
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Fiscal.ai
Toast operates in one of the most competitive markets around and still managed to add 100,000+ new locations over the last 5 years.
Focus matters.
$TOST https://t.co/cWIJLkePPr
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Toast operates in one of the most competitive markets around and still managed to add 100,000+ new locations over the last 5 years.
Focus matters.
$TOST https://t.co/cWIJLkePPr
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WealthyReadings
$TMDX is the best buy in the market today, has been for weeks but might not be in a few as the stock started its move.
Immune to recession fears or consumer weakness.
Immune to interest-rate swings.
Immune to tariff tantrums.
Immune to AI volatility.
A defensive asset growing 30%+ with multiple future growth verticals, transforming one of the most critical areas of modern medicine in the U.S. and soon globally, with a massive network effect and switching costs and no real competition.
You'd better learn about it before it's too late.
tweet
$TMDX is the best buy in the market today, has been for weeks but might not be in a few as the stock started its move.
Immune to recession fears or consumer weakness.
Immune to interest-rate swings.
Immune to tariff tantrums.
Immune to AI volatility.
A defensive asset growing 30%+ with multiple future growth verticals, transforming one of the most critical areas of modern medicine in the U.S. and soon globally, with a massive network effect and switching costs and no real competition.
You'd better learn about it before it's too late.
$TMDX is one of the most interesting growth names in the med-tech sector, and one of the most interesting stocks in the entire market right now.
Here’s why 👇
🔷 The only company providing an end-to-end transplant system in the U.S., from organ recovery to transportation to transplant surgery.
🔷 Leader in organ-preservation technology with growing demand and innovative solutions.
🔷 Rising adoption of their technologies and services.
🔷 Upgrading both lung and heart platforms in FY26, with expansion into kidneys by 2028.
🔷 International expansion coming in Europe in 2026 and more regions after.
🔷 Hospitals tend to rely on specific technologies for decades once integrated into their workflow.
🔷 Revenue growth has been consistent, with multiple levers to sustain it for years.
🔷 Margins are expanding.
🔷 Valuation remains well below comparable med-tech innovators.
The bear case?
🔷 Regulations and social security systems can slow progress - innovation & expansion.
🔷 Reputation is critical in this sector and can be impacted by internal or external events.
You'll find more details in the full breakdown below, but one conclusion stands: $TMDX is one of the most innovative and transformative companies in med-tech, offering a service and product no one else does.
Question is, how long before the market finally prices in the growth story and the importance of their service and hardware in the future of transplants? tweet
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App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals:
🛒 Walmart
📦 PDD
✅ Intuit
🔒 Palo Alto
🎯 Target
and many more!
$WMT $PDD $INTU $PANW $NTES $VEEV $TGT $LENOVO $AS $KLAR $ESTC $GLBE $BLSH
https://t.co/jcblSOwBjH
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📊 This Week in Visuals:
🛒 Walmart
📦 PDD
✅ Intuit
🔒 Palo Alto
🎯 Target
and many more!
$WMT $PDD $INTU $PANW $NTES $VEEV $TGT $LENOVO $AS $KLAR $ESTC $GLBE $BLSH
https://t.co/jcblSOwBjH
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WealthyReadings
Most fail to understand a key reason behind the demand for $NVDA GPUs, which isn't just “more compute.”
Hyperscallers and enterprises aren't just chasing compute, they're chasing energy efficiency.
New GPU generation delivers more compute per unit of energy. That means a data center can dramatically increase compute output without increasing its energy consumption.
The choice is pretty easy from an economic point of view.
🟩 Buy the latest, most energy-efficient GPUs.
🟥 Spend billions building new data centers and securing eew nergy capacity.
Upgrading GPUs is faster, cheaper and easier than expanding infrastructures, while also being safer and easier to maintain.
Add to this CUDA which largely improves $NVDA’s hardware lifecycles thanks to personlization, and not only do you get the most efficient compute but you also get the longest life cycles on the market.
This is a huge part of why $NVDA keeps winning. And will continue to do so.
I describe this in more depth in my latest quaterly review of the company and go through why the latest bear cases circulating on social medias are mostly noise and do not hold when paired to context and data.
Link's in bio.
tweet
Most fail to understand a key reason behind the demand for $NVDA GPUs, which isn't just “more compute.”
Hyperscallers and enterprises aren't just chasing compute, they're chasing energy efficiency.
New GPU generation delivers more compute per unit of energy. That means a data center can dramatically increase compute output without increasing its energy consumption.
The choice is pretty easy from an economic point of view.
🟩 Buy the latest, most energy-efficient GPUs.
🟥 Spend billions building new data centers and securing eew nergy capacity.
Upgrading GPUs is faster, cheaper and easier than expanding infrastructures, while also being safer and easier to maintain.
Add to this CUDA which largely improves $NVDA’s hardware lifecycles thanks to personlization, and not only do you get the most efficient compute but you also get the longest life cycles on the market.
This is a huge part of why $NVDA keeps winning. And will continue to do so.
I describe this in more depth in my latest quaterly review of the company and go through why the latest bear cases circulating on social medias are mostly noise and do not hold when paired to context and data.
Link's in bio.
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
A Freeze, A Slowdown, and A Break: Housing Is About to Show Its Real Price
This chart is showing just how strange the housing market has become. It tracks the price of new single family homes divided by the price of existing ones. Normally that ratio is comfortably above zero because new homes carry an obvious premium…they’re larger, newer, and come with warranties and builder incentives. For more than 50 years, new homes typically sold 10–20% higher, sometimes even 30–35% above existing homes.
But look at the right side…the line collapses to zero and even dips slightly negative. That means new homes are now roughly the same price or a bit cheaper than existing ones. We haven’t seen that dynamic since the early 1970s.
The reasons aren’t mysterious. Rate lock has frozen existing supply and millions of owners with 2–3% mortgages refuse to list unless they’re forced to. That keeps existing inventory tight and artificially supports prices. Builders, meanwhile, have no such luxury they need cash flow. So they’re cutting prices, shrinking square footage, buying down mortgage rates, and throwing in incentives. They’re adjusting to reality in a way homeowners can’t. And because so few existing homes are listed, the ones that do hit the market tend to skew higher end, which pushes up the average existing home price.
So this convergence doesn’t mean housing is cheap, it means new construction has repriced, while existing home prices are held aloft by low rate inertia and thin supply.
The Labor Market Is the Real Trigger
What comes next depends on jobs. A lot of stretched buyers are still hanging on, but unemployment is the swing factor. Psychology always turns before the data. People don’t need to lose their job to get nervous…hearing about layoffs, pausing raises, and hiring freezes is enough to pull them back. Even if mortgage rates fall, the willingness to take on a 30 year debt load evaporates when job security feels fragile.
And as unemployment rises, forced sellers start to appear. Suddenly the market gets a wave of people who have to sell…relocations, divorces, investors needing liquidity, borrowers who can’t carry the payment. That’s what breaks the no inventory illusion. Frozen supply begins to thaw under stress, and that’s when existing home prices finally face real downward pressure. Rate lock matters until negative cash flow matters more.
All of this unfolds while monetary policy lags. There’s a popular idea that once the Fed cuts rates or restarts QE, housing demand will explode. But that’s not how cycles work. Looser policy hits financial markets immediately, but the real economy absorbs it slowly and usually over 18–24 months. Historically, the Fed cuts into weakness, not after it resolves. So you often end up with a strange period where mortgage rates fall, but buyers don’t reappear because job security and confidence are deteriorating faster than policy can help.
That’s the backdrop this chart is hinting at. New homes have already bent to reality. Existing homes haven’t repriced, they’ve just stopped trading. As unemployment rises and psychology turns, that foundation gets tested.
The last time this ratio hovered near zero was the 1970s a decade defined by economic stress and a long, grinding adjustment in real home values. You don’t need that entire decade repeated for the rhyme to hold. A slower economy, rising layoffs, and nervous buyers are enough.
If that’s where we’re headed, the danger isn’t that prices stay too high forever. It’s that once income confidence cracks, prices move the only way they can…down in real terms first, and if the labor damage is deep enough, down in nominal terms too, even with lower mortgage rates.
See the last times throughout history the prices have converged.
DISCUSS!
“For the first time in more than 50 years, the price of a new single-family home is lower than the average price of an existing single-family home, see chart below.”
cc @m3_melody
@apolloglobal [...]
A Freeze, A Slowdown, and A Break: Housing Is About to Show Its Real Price
This chart is showing just how strange the housing market has become. It tracks the price of new single family homes divided by the price of existing ones. Normally that ratio is comfortably above zero because new homes carry an obvious premium…they’re larger, newer, and come with warranties and builder incentives. For more than 50 years, new homes typically sold 10–20% higher, sometimes even 30–35% above existing homes.
But look at the right side…the line collapses to zero and even dips slightly negative. That means new homes are now roughly the same price or a bit cheaper than existing ones. We haven’t seen that dynamic since the early 1970s.
The reasons aren’t mysterious. Rate lock has frozen existing supply and millions of owners with 2–3% mortgages refuse to list unless they’re forced to. That keeps existing inventory tight and artificially supports prices. Builders, meanwhile, have no such luxury they need cash flow. So they’re cutting prices, shrinking square footage, buying down mortgage rates, and throwing in incentives. They’re adjusting to reality in a way homeowners can’t. And because so few existing homes are listed, the ones that do hit the market tend to skew higher end, which pushes up the average existing home price.
So this convergence doesn’t mean housing is cheap, it means new construction has repriced, while existing home prices are held aloft by low rate inertia and thin supply.
The Labor Market Is the Real Trigger
What comes next depends on jobs. A lot of stretched buyers are still hanging on, but unemployment is the swing factor. Psychology always turns before the data. People don’t need to lose their job to get nervous…hearing about layoffs, pausing raises, and hiring freezes is enough to pull them back. Even if mortgage rates fall, the willingness to take on a 30 year debt load evaporates when job security feels fragile.
And as unemployment rises, forced sellers start to appear. Suddenly the market gets a wave of people who have to sell…relocations, divorces, investors needing liquidity, borrowers who can’t carry the payment. That’s what breaks the no inventory illusion. Frozen supply begins to thaw under stress, and that’s when existing home prices finally face real downward pressure. Rate lock matters until negative cash flow matters more.
All of this unfolds while monetary policy lags. There’s a popular idea that once the Fed cuts rates or restarts QE, housing demand will explode. But that’s not how cycles work. Looser policy hits financial markets immediately, but the real economy absorbs it slowly and usually over 18–24 months. Historically, the Fed cuts into weakness, not after it resolves. So you often end up with a strange period where mortgage rates fall, but buyers don’t reappear because job security and confidence are deteriorating faster than policy can help.
That’s the backdrop this chart is hinting at. New homes have already bent to reality. Existing homes haven’t repriced, they’ve just stopped trading. As unemployment rises and psychology turns, that foundation gets tested.
The last time this ratio hovered near zero was the 1970s a decade defined by economic stress and a long, grinding adjustment in real home values. You don’t need that entire decade repeated for the rhyme to hold. A slower economy, rising layoffs, and nervous buyers are enough.
If that’s where we’re headed, the danger isn’t that prices stay too high forever. It’s that once income confidence cracks, prices move the only way they can…down in real terms first, and if the labor damage is deep enough, down in nominal terms too, even with lower mortgage rates.
See the last times throughout history the prices have converged.
DISCUSS!
“For the first time in more than 50 years, the price of a new single-family home is lower than the average price of an existing single-family home, see chart below.”
cc @m3_melody
@apolloglobal [...]
Offshore
EndGame Macro A Freeze, A Slowdown, and A Break: Housing Is About to Show Its Real Price This chart is showing just how strange the housing market has become. It tracks the price of new single family homes divided by the price of existing ones. Normally that…
https://t.co/tJt6ymZZQT - Danielle DiMartino Booth tweet
Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
How much would Amazon Web Services be worth on its own?
Revenue: $122B, +20% YoY
Operating Income: $44B
$AMZN https://t.co/v3FC1OQRIz
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How much would Amazon Web Services be worth on its own?
Revenue: $122B, +20% YoY
Operating Income: $44B
$AMZN https://t.co/v3FC1OQRIz
tweet