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WealthyReadings
Shared two important write up with subs today.
- A review of the $PYPL conference at Citi Bank.
- A portfolio modifications detail talking about $DUOL $TSLA $ALAB $NBIS $TMDX & more.
Link's in bio.
It is important to keep our head cool & focus on our system in days like this. https://t.co/FpDsUu4L3s
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Shared two important write up with subs today.
- A review of the $PYPL conference at Citi Bank.
- A portfolio modifications detail talking about $DUOL $TSLA $ALAB $NBIS $TMDX & more.
Link's in bio.
It is important to keep our head cool & focus on our system in days like this. https://t.co/FpDsUu4L3s
tweet
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EndGame Macro
When Nvidia’s Rally Runs Into the Jobs Report
What makes that $900B round trip in NVDA interesting is that it lines up almost perfectly with a shift in the macro, not anything about Nvidia’s business.
The first leg up is easy to explain…blow out earnings, guidance still strong, everyone underweight the name scrambles to buy. That’s your +$450B positioning and FOMO doing what they always do around a flagship story stock.
The second leg, the give back starts once the jobs report lands and people actually process what it means. The data showed a labor market clearly losing momentum, with softer hiring and weaker revisions, but not an outright crack. In other words, growth is cooling, margins will get harder to defend, but the macro picture isn’t bad enough to guarantee another big helping of monetary support. Rate cut odds for December shifted toward hold, and suddenly the backdrop that justified paying any price for long duration growth stopped looking so friendly.
In that environment, a name like NVDA becomes the perfect source of cash…huge run up, crowded long, still great fundamentals but now sitting on top of a less forgiving policy and growth mix. So the post earnings squeeze turns into a post jobs derisking. The $900B swing is the tape repricing an AI champion to match a labor market that’s slowing and a Fed that might not be as eager to reflate the whole party.
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When Nvidia’s Rally Runs Into the Jobs Report
What makes that $900B round trip in NVDA interesting is that it lines up almost perfectly with a shift in the macro, not anything about Nvidia’s business.
The first leg up is easy to explain…blow out earnings, guidance still strong, everyone underweight the name scrambles to buy. That’s your +$450B positioning and FOMO doing what they always do around a flagship story stock.
The second leg, the give back starts once the jobs report lands and people actually process what it means. The data showed a labor market clearly losing momentum, with softer hiring and weaker revisions, but not an outright crack. In other words, growth is cooling, margins will get harder to defend, but the macro picture isn’t bad enough to guarantee another big helping of monetary support. Rate cut odds for December shifted toward hold, and suddenly the backdrop that justified paying any price for long duration growth stopped looking so friendly.
In that environment, a name like NVDA becomes the perfect source of cash…huge run up, crowded long, still great fundamentals but now sitting on top of a less forgiving policy and growth mix. So the post earnings squeeze turns into a post jobs derisking. The $900B swing is the tape repricing an AI champion to match a labor market that’s slowing and a Fed that might not be as eager to reflate the whole party.
Today's move in Nvidia is truly historic.
Between 4:00 AM ET yesterday and 2:00 PM ET today, Nvidia, $NVDA, both ADDED and LOST $450 billion in market cap.
That's a $900 billion swing in less than 36 hours. https://t.co/BUbpi9bjzj tweet
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EndGame Macro
From Calm to Caution And Why the VIX Is Climbing
The VIX isn’t magic. It’s just the market’s price for protection, the cost of buying insurance on the S&P. When it jumps like this, it means people suddenly care about protection again. And today’s tape explains exactly why.
Stocks didn’t just drift lower; they rolled over in unison. The S&P, Nasdaq, Dow…all red. Mega caps that usually cushion the index like Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet were selling off at the same time. That kind of broad weakness almost always pushes the VIX higher, because it tells traders the problem isn’t one company or one sector. It’s sentiment.
A Shift in Mood, Not a Mystery Spike
For months, the market behaved like volatility didn’t matter. Every dip was bought, every scare faded, and the VIX spent most of its time pinned in the teens. That only happens when investors are comfortable, maybe too comfortable…selling options, taking on risk, and assuming the Fed would keep the floor under the market.
But today the psychological anchor moved.
The jobs report made it clear the economy is cooling. And because there’s no
guarantee with another rate cut in December, the market suddenly had to price in a less supportive backdrop. Couple that with crowded positions in tech and crypto unwinding at the same time, and people who were happy to ignore risk all year started reaching for hedges.
When everyone wants protection at once, option prices jump. That’s all the VIX is reflecting.
My Read
The market is shifting from we don’t need hedges to maybe we should cover ourselves a bit, and that change in mindset shows up instantly in volatility. The move in the VIX isn’t telling you something is breaking. It’s telling you traders finally stopped treating volatility like free money.
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From Calm to Caution And Why the VIX Is Climbing
The VIX isn’t magic. It’s just the market’s price for protection, the cost of buying insurance on the S&P. When it jumps like this, it means people suddenly care about protection again. And today’s tape explains exactly why.
Stocks didn’t just drift lower; they rolled over in unison. The S&P, Nasdaq, Dow…all red. Mega caps that usually cushion the index like Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet were selling off at the same time. That kind of broad weakness almost always pushes the VIX higher, because it tells traders the problem isn’t one company or one sector. It’s sentiment.
A Shift in Mood, Not a Mystery Spike
For months, the market behaved like volatility didn’t matter. Every dip was bought, every scare faded, and the VIX spent most of its time pinned in the teens. That only happens when investors are comfortable, maybe too comfortable…selling options, taking on risk, and assuming the Fed would keep the floor under the market.
But today the psychological anchor moved.
The jobs report made it clear the economy is cooling. And because there’s no
guarantee with another rate cut in December, the market suddenly had to price in a less supportive backdrop. Couple that with crowded positions in tech and crypto unwinding at the same time, and people who were happy to ignore risk all year started reaching for hedges.
When everyone wants protection at once, option prices jump. That’s all the VIX is reflecting.
My Read
The market is shifting from we don’t need hedges to maybe we should cover ourselves a bit, and that change in mindset shows up instantly in volatility. The move in the VIX isn’t telling you something is breaking. It’s telling you traders finally stopped treating volatility like free money.
JUST IN 🚨: CBOE Volatility Index $VIX on track for its highest close since April tweet
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EndGame Macro
From Pandemic Darling to Retail Straggler…Target’s Repricing Explained
When you look at Target’s chart, you can almost read the company’s last six years without needing a single earnings report. You see the huge run up during the pandemic when stimulus checks, work from home nesting, and a shift toward
nice but not necessary goods pushed Target into a lane it wasn’t used to. That was the peak of the brand moment…discretionary spending was strong, and people treated Target like a hybrid of convenience and lifestyle.
Then you see the slow, persistent unraveling. Every rally is smaller than the one before. Every sell off digs a little deeper. And now the stock has drifted all the way back to where it was six years ago. That’s the market resetting its entire view of what this company is worth.
Under the Hood, the Business Is Telling the Same Story
Sales have been slipping for three straight quarters. Comparable sales are down. Net sales are down. Earnings are sliding. And they just announced 1,800 corporate layoffs not frontline or supply chain cuts, but headquarters cuts. That’s always a sign that management is trying to buy time…tighten the structure, cut costs, simplify operations.
The bigger issue is consumer behavior. Target thrives when people feel comfortable spending a little extra on style, home goods, kids stuff, and impulse buys. This cycle is the opposite…shoppers are tired, stretched, and more price sensitive.
What the Market Is Really Pricing In
This isn’t the stock of a company going through a rough patch, it’s the chart of a company being reclassified. Target is no longer being treated like a steady compounder with a strong brand advantage. It’s being priced like a cyclical retailer tied to a stressed middle income consumer, forced to cut costs rather than grow its way out.
The layoffs, the weaker comps, the guidance cut, they’re all symptoms of that deeper shift. And the chart simply reflects the market accepting a new reality that Target has to prove it can grow again, not just hope the old playbook still works.
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From Pandemic Darling to Retail Straggler…Target’s Repricing Explained
When you look at Target’s chart, you can almost read the company’s last six years without needing a single earnings report. You see the huge run up during the pandemic when stimulus checks, work from home nesting, and a shift toward
nice but not necessary goods pushed Target into a lane it wasn’t used to. That was the peak of the brand moment…discretionary spending was strong, and people treated Target like a hybrid of convenience and lifestyle.
Then you see the slow, persistent unraveling. Every rally is smaller than the one before. Every sell off digs a little deeper. And now the stock has drifted all the way back to where it was six years ago. That’s the market resetting its entire view of what this company is worth.
Under the Hood, the Business Is Telling the Same Story
Sales have been slipping for three straight quarters. Comparable sales are down. Net sales are down. Earnings are sliding. And they just announced 1,800 corporate layoffs not frontline or supply chain cuts, but headquarters cuts. That’s always a sign that management is trying to buy time…tighten the structure, cut costs, simplify operations.
The bigger issue is consumer behavior. Target thrives when people feel comfortable spending a little extra on style, home goods, kids stuff, and impulse buys. This cycle is the opposite…shoppers are tired, stretched, and more price sensitive.
What the Market Is Really Pricing In
This isn’t the stock of a company going through a rough patch, it’s the chart of a company being reclassified. Target is no longer being treated like a steady compounder with a strong brand advantage. It’s being priced like a cyclical retailer tied to a stressed middle income consumer, forced to cut costs rather than grow its way out.
The layoffs, the weaker comps, the guidance cut, they’re all symptoms of that deeper shift. And the chart simply reflects the market accepting a new reality that Target has to prove it can grow again, not just hope the old playbook still works.
BREAKING 🚨: Target
$TGT has now plunged to its lowest price in more than 6 years 📉📉 tweet
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EndGame Macro
A Quiet Rotation That Speaks Loudly
What’s happening in that watchlist is a snapshot of how investors behave when the mood shifts from chase upside to protect what I’ve got. You can see it in the split between the top half and the bottom half of the screen.
The defensive areas like MBS, utilities, staples, health care are either green or barely touched. That’s where money goes when people still want exposure but don’t want to get punched in the face. It’s the market saying…I’m not running for the exits, but I’m not reaching for risk either. These are the sectors that feel safer when growth looks softer and volatility is waking back up.
And the Pain Points Tell You Why
Down below is where the stress shows up…gold slipping, Oracle getting hit, gasoline rolling over, and crypto taking a real shot, with DVOL spiking right alongside it. That combination tells you the speculative pockets are getting unwound first. When ETH and BTC are red at the same time vol is jumping, that’s classic deleveraging. People who were leaning on low volatility and easy momentum are now pulling back.
Even Oracle, a profitable, steady tech name gets dragged in because anything tied to the broader growth + AI + liquidity theme is suddenly being questioned after the jobs data and the shift in rate expectations.
Investor Psychology in One Glance
Put together, this is what a caution mode looks like before it becomes panic. Investors are rotating, not fleeing. They’re trimming the stuff that depends on sentiment and liquidity, and quietly sliding into the boring parts of the market that feel sturdier when uncertainty creeps in.
It’s the market saying..I want to stay in the game just not with the same level of risk I was taking yesterday.
tweet
A Quiet Rotation That Speaks Loudly
What’s happening in that watchlist is a snapshot of how investors behave when the mood shifts from chase upside to protect what I’ve got. You can see it in the split between the top half and the bottom half of the screen.
The defensive areas like MBS, utilities, staples, health care are either green or barely touched. That’s where money goes when people still want exposure but don’t want to get punched in the face. It’s the market saying…I’m not running for the exits, but I’m not reaching for risk either. These are the sectors that feel safer when growth looks softer and volatility is waking back up.
And the Pain Points Tell You Why
Down below is where the stress shows up…gold slipping, Oracle getting hit, gasoline rolling over, and crypto taking a real shot, with DVOL spiking right alongside it. That combination tells you the speculative pockets are getting unwound first. When ETH and BTC are red at the same time vol is jumping, that’s classic deleveraging. People who were leaning on low volatility and easy momentum are now pulling back.
Even Oracle, a profitable, steady tech name gets dragged in because anything tied to the broader growth + AI + liquidity theme is suddenly being questioned after the jobs data and the shift in rate expectations.
Investor Psychology in One Glance
Put together, this is what a caution mode looks like before it becomes panic. Investors are rotating, not fleeing. They’re trimming the stuff that depends on sentiment and liquidity, and quietly sliding into the boring parts of the market that feel sturdier when uncertainty creeps in.
It’s the market saying..I want to stay in the game just not with the same level of risk I was taking yesterday.
https://t.co/DI7APNKAKC tweet
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EndGame Macro
There’s Something Happening Here in the Labor Market
A 4.4% unemployment rate doesn’t sound dramatic on its own. It’s still below the long term average and miles away from anything resembling crisis. But unemployment isn’t about the absolute level, it’s about the turn. Once the rate bottoms and starts climbing, even slowly, that’s usually the moment the cycle quietly shifts from expansion into slowdown.
Historically, when unemployment rises a full percentage point off the low, it rarely stops there. It tends to keep drifting higher because it reflects companies easing hiring, trimming hours, and holding back on expansion long before they announce the big layoffs. That’s exactly where we are now.
Why 4.4% Today Is Not the Same as 4.4% in 2021
The comparison to October 2021 is technically true but misses the context. Back then, the economy was still healing from the COVID shock and fiscal support was everywhere, the Fed had rates at zero, and companies were desperate for workers. Unemployment was falling toward the best labor market in decades.
Today we’re on the other side of that mountain. Rates are higher, stimulus is gone, households are stretched, and the hiring engine that powered 2021–2023 is cooling. So while the number matches 2021, the meaning is completely different…that was a recovery, this is a softening.
The Quiet Signal the Chart Is Flashing
When you put this rise into the long historical pattern, it lands in a familiar place. Every cycle has its nobody panic, but something’s shifting moment, the early turn in the unemployment rate that doesn’t feel like much at first but ends up marking the beginning of the slowdown.
That’s the signal here. The recognition that the labor market has already peaked and is slowly giving back ground. And historically, once that process starts, it’s hard to reverse without more easing or more growth.
This chart isn’t shouting. But it is saying the cycle has turned.
tweet
There’s Something Happening Here in the Labor Market
A 4.4% unemployment rate doesn’t sound dramatic on its own. It’s still below the long term average and miles away from anything resembling crisis. But unemployment isn’t about the absolute level, it’s about the turn. Once the rate bottoms and starts climbing, even slowly, that’s usually the moment the cycle quietly shifts from expansion into slowdown.
Historically, when unemployment rises a full percentage point off the low, it rarely stops there. It tends to keep drifting higher because it reflects companies easing hiring, trimming hours, and holding back on expansion long before they announce the big layoffs. That’s exactly where we are now.
Why 4.4% Today Is Not the Same as 4.4% in 2021
The comparison to October 2021 is technically true but misses the context. Back then, the economy was still healing from the COVID shock and fiscal support was everywhere, the Fed had rates at zero, and companies were desperate for workers. Unemployment was falling toward the best labor market in decades.
Today we’re on the other side of that mountain. Rates are higher, stimulus is gone, households are stretched, and the hiring engine that powered 2021–2023 is cooling. So while the number matches 2021, the meaning is completely different…that was a recovery, this is a softening.
The Quiet Signal the Chart Is Flashing
When you put this rise into the long historical pattern, it lands in a familiar place. Every cycle has its nobody panic, but something’s shifting moment, the early turn in the unemployment rate that doesn’t feel like much at first but ends up marking the beginning of the slowdown.
That’s the signal here. The recognition that the labor market has already peaked and is slowly giving back ground. And historically, once that process starts, it’s hard to reverse without more easing or more growth.
This chart isn’t shouting. But it is saying the cycle has turned.
The US Unemployment Rate moved up to 4.4% in September, the highest level since October 2021. https://t.co/oR7dQoVh7I tweet
EndGame Macro
What’s Really Going On With the U.S. And This Argentina Bailout
Washington is trying to support Argentina without blowing up its own banking system or stepping into political landmines at home.
The Treasury originally floated a $20B FX-stabilization agreement, basically a dollar backstop and expected U.S. banks to match it with another $20B lending facility. In other words, the U.S. would give the political umbrella, and Wall Street would write the checks.
But the banks immediately balked. They weren’t willing to lend $20B to a country that has defaulted more than any major economy without collateral or a U.S. backstop. They pressed Treasury for guidance on what Argentina could pledge or whether Washington would guarantee the loans. Those answers never came.
And remember…banks are under pressure on multiple fronts right now. Liquidity has tightened, the Fed is openly worried about dealers avoiding the Standing Repo Facility, and there’s still heavy fighting over the Basel III endgame rules. These are not conditions where regulators want banks loading up on risky emerging market debt.
So instead of the big $20B loan, banks shifted to a much smaller, short term repo facility, maybe $5B just enough to help Argentina make a $4B payment due in January. It’s the safest, cleanest version of help, and it lands entirely within risk and regulatory limits.
Why the U.S. Is Involved at All
Washington’s motives aren’t mysterious. The U.S. wants Milei to succeed, not because of ideology, but because Argentina is strategically important and the last thing the U.S. wants is another major Latin American economy falling deeper into Chinese financing channels.
So the U.S. is trying to do three things at once…
•Support a friendly government without taking on too much political risk.
•Prevent a near term default, which would trigger instability across emerging markets.
•Keep Argentina tied to U.S. institutions, not Beijing or other lenders.
But Treasury has limits. It can give political cover, it can provide FX support, it can help structure deals but it can’t force risk committees at JPMorgan and BofA to approve a $20B loan to a sovereign with almost no reserves.
So Washington is doing the same thing it does in every late cycle, geopolitically sensitive situation…step in just enough to stabilize the immediate problem, but not enough to carry the entire load.
That’s why the $20B bank rescue vanished and turned into a smaller, safer, repo style bridge loan. It’s not a retreat, it’s a recalibration to what the banks, the regulators, and the politics will actually allow.
The U.S. isn’t abandoning Argentina.
It’s just operating within the reality of its own system.
tweet
What’s Really Going On With the U.S. And This Argentina Bailout
Washington is trying to support Argentina without blowing up its own banking system or stepping into political landmines at home.
The Treasury originally floated a $20B FX-stabilization agreement, basically a dollar backstop and expected U.S. banks to match it with another $20B lending facility. In other words, the U.S. would give the political umbrella, and Wall Street would write the checks.
But the banks immediately balked. They weren’t willing to lend $20B to a country that has defaulted more than any major economy without collateral or a U.S. backstop. They pressed Treasury for guidance on what Argentina could pledge or whether Washington would guarantee the loans. Those answers never came.
And remember…banks are under pressure on multiple fronts right now. Liquidity has tightened, the Fed is openly worried about dealers avoiding the Standing Repo Facility, and there’s still heavy fighting over the Basel III endgame rules. These are not conditions where regulators want banks loading up on risky emerging market debt.
So instead of the big $20B loan, banks shifted to a much smaller, short term repo facility, maybe $5B just enough to help Argentina make a $4B payment due in January. It’s the safest, cleanest version of help, and it lands entirely within risk and regulatory limits.
Why the U.S. Is Involved at All
Washington’s motives aren’t mysterious. The U.S. wants Milei to succeed, not because of ideology, but because Argentina is strategically important and the last thing the U.S. wants is another major Latin American economy falling deeper into Chinese financing channels.
So the U.S. is trying to do three things at once…
•Support a friendly government without taking on too much political risk.
•Prevent a near term default, which would trigger instability across emerging markets.
•Keep Argentina tied to U.S. institutions, not Beijing or other lenders.
But Treasury has limits. It can give political cover, it can provide FX support, it can help structure deals but it can’t force risk committees at JPMorgan and BofA to approve a $20B loan to a sovereign with almost no reserves.
So Washington is doing the same thing it does in every late cycle, geopolitically sensitive situation…step in just enough to stabilize the immediate problem, but not enough to carry the entire load.
That’s why the $20B bank rescue vanished and turned into a smaller, safer, repo style bridge loan. It’s not a retreat, it’s a recalibration to what the banks, the regulators, and the politics will actually allow.
The U.S. isn’t abandoning Argentina.
It’s just operating within the reality of its own system.
Exclusive: A planned $20 billion bailout to Argentina from JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup has been shelved as bankers pivot to a smaller loan package https://t.co/9qgoLpUS3f tweet
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The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) on X
Exclusive: A planned $20 billion bailout to Argentina from JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup has been shelved as bankers pivot to a smaller loan package https://t.co/9qgoLpUS3f
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Clark Square Capital
The Fear & Greed Index is at 6. In April, the Index bottomed at three on April 8th. Seems like we're close? https://t.co/YGt1OYlw82
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The Fear & Greed Index is at 6. In April, the Index bottomed at three on April 8th. Seems like we're close? https://t.co/YGt1OYlw82
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