Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 13.09x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 1.37%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.57%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~68% MORE in operating cash flow & ~47% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $94.19B
โขLong-Term Debt: $57.94B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 60x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
โขLTM: 14.8%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
โขLTM: 24.3%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2020: $386.06B
โข2025E: $714.47B
โขCAGR: 13.10%
FREE CASH FLOW๐*
โข2020: $31.02B
โข2025E: $21.17B
โขCAGR: (7%)
*$76.15B 2027 FCF estimate (elevated near-term CapEx temporarily suppressing FCF, setting the stage for a strong rebound)
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2020: $2.09
โข2025E: $7.07
โขCAGR: 27.60%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2020 Shares Outstanding: 10.20B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.80B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 50.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 11.1%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~68% MORE in OCF & ~47% LESS in FCF per share
Weโre using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.01 (20% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $17.03 (31% YoY)
2027E: $20.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $20.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $355๐ต โฆ ~24% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $334๐ต โฆ ~21% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $313๐ต โฆ ~17% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $292๐ต โฆ ~14% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
Keep in mind ~15x P/OCF has historically marked the floor and lower boundary for $AMZN
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $121.93B
๐Ads revenue: $64.61B
Combined, these segments generated $186.54 net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $227๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐, ๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐๐ซ, ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ. tweet
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 13.09x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 1.37%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.57%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~68% MORE in operating cash flow & ~47% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $94.19B
โขLong-Term Debt: $57.94B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 60x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
โขLTM: 14.8%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
โขLTM: 24.3%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2020: $386.06B
โข2025E: $714.47B
โขCAGR: 13.10%
FREE CASH FLOW๐*
โข2020: $31.02B
โข2025E: $21.17B
โขCAGR: (7%)
*$76.15B 2027 FCF estimate (elevated near-term CapEx temporarily suppressing FCF, setting the stage for a strong rebound)
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2020: $2.09
โข2025E: $7.07
โขCAGR: 27.60%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2020 Shares Outstanding: 10.20B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.80B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 50.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 11.1%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~68% MORE in OCF & ~47% LESS in FCF per share
Weโre using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.01 (20% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $17.03 (31% YoY)
2027E: $20.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $20.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $355๐ต โฆ ~24% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $334๐ต โฆ ~21% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $313๐ต โฆ ~17% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $292๐ต โฆ ~14% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
Keep in mind ~15x P/OCF has historically marked the floor and lower boundary for $AMZN
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $121.93B
๐Ads revenue: $64.61B
Combined, these segments generated $186.54 net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $227๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐, ๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐๐ซ, ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ. tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
The Headline Says 119K Jobs. The Body Says the Economyโs Losing Lift.
Once you read this report instead of treating the headline like the whole story, the optimism fades fast. The gains are narrow, the revisions cut the wrong way, and most of the signals that should strengthen in a solid labor market are either stalling or slipping.
A Labor Market Thatโs Moving, But Not Moving Forward
The thinness of the job growth jumps out immediately. Payrolls rose by 119k, but the BLS openly says employment has shown โlittle change since April.โ The three month average sits at just 62k barely enough to maintain appearances. And the revisions are the real tellโฆJuly and August were revised down by 33k, with August turning slightly negative. Thatโs textbook late cycle behavior.
The unemployment rate nudged up to 4.4%, but the details matter more than the number. There are now 7.6 million unemployed, higher than a year ago, and the employment population ratio has slipped, a quiet sign job creation isnโt keeping up with population growth. Long term unemployment is stuck around 1.8 million, nearly a quarter of all unemployed. In a healthy cycle, that number falls. Here, itโs not.
The Only Sectors Growing Are the Ones That Grow No Matter What
A broad, confident economy adds jobs across industries. That isnโt whatโs happening.
Most of Septemberโs gains came from the same dependable trioโฆ
โขHealth care (+43k)
โขFood services (+37k)
โขSocial assistance (+14k)
These sectors grow because people age, kids need care, and public funding keeps flowing not because demand is booming.
Meanwhile, the cyclical heart of the labor market is shrinkingโฆ
โขTransportation & warehousing (โ25k)
โขManufacturing (โ6k)
โขTemporary help (โ15.9k)
โขProfessional & business services (โ20k)
These are the canaries. Temp work especially, firms cut it when theyโre uneasy about the road ahead. The data is showing that unease.
People Arenโt Working More And Theyโre Stretching to Keep Up
If this were genuinely a strong labor market, hours would be rising and firms would be squeezing overtime before hiring more workers. Instead, hours are stuck at 34.2. Manufacturing overtime hasnโt budged. Involuntary part time work is still near 4.6 million. Multiple jobholding is up to 8.8 million. This doesnโt look like prosperity, it looks like people filling income gaps any way they can.
Wage growth isnโt telling a different story. A 0.2% monthly gain barely touches rising living costs, especially in housing, insurance, and services. This isnโt tight market wage pressure; itโs paycheck to paycheck survival.
The Weakness Is Spreading Into the Core
The slowdown isnโt limited to marginal workers, itโs broadening into groups that usually hold up longerโฆ
โขAsian unemployment jumped from 3.6% to 4.4%.
โขBlack unemployment is stuck at 7.5%.
โขCollege educated unemployment climbed to 2.8%.
โขYouth unemployment for ages 20โ24 hit 9.2%.
These are stress fractures appearing in the center of the labor force.
And 5.9 million people say they want a job but arenโt counted as unemployed because they didnโt look recently. In a strong cycle, this pool shrinks. Here, itโs not.
Add It All Up, and the Story Doesnโt Match the Headline
Nothing in this report signals collapse but very little signals strength. The surface looks fine, but underneath you seeโฆ
โขSlowing job creation
โขNegative revisions
โขWeak cyclical industries
โขPersistent underemployment
โขStagnant participation
โขSoft wages
โขRising strain across demographic groups
If you ignored the headline and only read the internals, you wouldnโt call this a strong economy. Youโd call it what it isโฆa late cycle labor market losing altitude while the headline tries to steady the narrative.
tweet
The Headline Says 119K Jobs. The Body Says the Economyโs Losing Lift.
Once you read this report instead of treating the headline like the whole story, the optimism fades fast. The gains are narrow, the revisions cut the wrong way, and most of the signals that should strengthen in a solid labor market are either stalling or slipping.
A Labor Market Thatโs Moving, But Not Moving Forward
The thinness of the job growth jumps out immediately. Payrolls rose by 119k, but the BLS openly says employment has shown โlittle change since April.โ The three month average sits at just 62k barely enough to maintain appearances. And the revisions are the real tellโฆJuly and August were revised down by 33k, with August turning slightly negative. Thatโs textbook late cycle behavior.
The unemployment rate nudged up to 4.4%, but the details matter more than the number. There are now 7.6 million unemployed, higher than a year ago, and the employment population ratio has slipped, a quiet sign job creation isnโt keeping up with population growth. Long term unemployment is stuck around 1.8 million, nearly a quarter of all unemployed. In a healthy cycle, that number falls. Here, itโs not.
The Only Sectors Growing Are the Ones That Grow No Matter What
A broad, confident economy adds jobs across industries. That isnโt whatโs happening.
Most of Septemberโs gains came from the same dependable trioโฆ
โขHealth care (+43k)
โขFood services (+37k)
โขSocial assistance (+14k)
These sectors grow because people age, kids need care, and public funding keeps flowing not because demand is booming.
Meanwhile, the cyclical heart of the labor market is shrinkingโฆ
โขTransportation & warehousing (โ25k)
โขManufacturing (โ6k)
โขTemporary help (โ15.9k)
โขProfessional & business services (โ20k)
These are the canaries. Temp work especially, firms cut it when theyโre uneasy about the road ahead. The data is showing that unease.
People Arenโt Working More And Theyโre Stretching to Keep Up
If this were genuinely a strong labor market, hours would be rising and firms would be squeezing overtime before hiring more workers. Instead, hours are stuck at 34.2. Manufacturing overtime hasnโt budged. Involuntary part time work is still near 4.6 million. Multiple jobholding is up to 8.8 million. This doesnโt look like prosperity, it looks like people filling income gaps any way they can.
Wage growth isnโt telling a different story. A 0.2% monthly gain barely touches rising living costs, especially in housing, insurance, and services. This isnโt tight market wage pressure; itโs paycheck to paycheck survival.
The Weakness Is Spreading Into the Core
The slowdown isnโt limited to marginal workers, itโs broadening into groups that usually hold up longerโฆ
โขAsian unemployment jumped from 3.6% to 4.4%.
โขBlack unemployment is stuck at 7.5%.
โขCollege educated unemployment climbed to 2.8%.
โขYouth unemployment for ages 20โ24 hit 9.2%.
These are stress fractures appearing in the center of the labor force.
And 5.9 million people say they want a job but arenโt counted as unemployed because they didnโt look recently. In a strong cycle, this pool shrinks. Here, itโs not.
Add It All Up, and the Story Doesnโt Match the Headline
Nothing in this report signals collapse but very little signals strength. The surface looks fine, but underneath you seeโฆ
โขSlowing job creation
โขNegative revisions
โขWeak cyclical industries
โขPersistent underemployment
โขStagnant participation
โขSoft wages
โขRising strain across demographic groups
If you ignored the headline and only read the internals, you wouldnโt call this a strong economy. Youโd call it what it isโฆa late cycle labor market losing altitude while the headline tries to steady the narrative.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
WealthyReadings
$NBIS is one of the most interesting AI infrastructure plays on the market, involved across multiple verticals.
Hereโs why ๐
๐ท Providing highly efficient compute at competitive prices.
๐ท Serving hyperscalers, start-ups and enterprises with hyperscaler-level compute quality.
๐ท Own and operates data centers all around the world.
๐ท Operating in one of the fastest-growing sectors with massive demand.
๐ท Very rapid ARR growth driven by insatiable compute needs.
๐ท Active in autonomous vehicles and tech education through its subsidiaries.
๐ท Involved in cutting-edge data technologies through equity stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka.
๐ท Valuation reflects execution risk, not full long-term potential.
The bear case?
๐ท Highly competitive industry with major cloud providers and neoclouds, even if Nebius offers hyperscaler-grade compute at better pricing.
๐ท Large capex requirements, long scaling cycles, and the risk of overbuilding capacity โ amplified by hyperscalers shifting risk downstream.
๐ท Execution needs to remain flawless to compete long term in the AI ecosystem.
You'll find more details in the full breakdown below, but one conclusion stands: $NBIS is building competitive AI infrastructure at a time when demand is exploding, with pricing and performance that directly challenge hyperscalers.
Question is, how long before the market recognizes the scale of the opportunity?
tweet
$NBIS is one of the most interesting AI infrastructure plays on the market, involved across multiple verticals.
Hereโs why ๐
๐ท Providing highly efficient compute at competitive prices.
๐ท Serving hyperscalers, start-ups and enterprises with hyperscaler-level compute quality.
๐ท Own and operates data centers all around the world.
๐ท Operating in one of the fastest-growing sectors with massive demand.
๐ท Very rapid ARR growth driven by insatiable compute needs.
๐ท Active in autonomous vehicles and tech education through its subsidiaries.
๐ท Involved in cutting-edge data technologies through equity stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka.
๐ท Valuation reflects execution risk, not full long-term potential.
The bear case?
๐ท Highly competitive industry with major cloud providers and neoclouds, even if Nebius offers hyperscaler-grade compute at better pricing.
๐ท Large capex requirements, long scaling cycles, and the risk of overbuilding capacity โ amplified by hyperscalers shifting risk downstream.
๐ท Execution needs to remain flawless to compete long term in the AI ecosystem.
You'll find more details in the full breakdown below, but one conclusion stands: $NBIS is building competitive AI infrastructure at a time when demand is exploding, with pricing and performance that directly challenge hyperscalers.
Question is, how long before the market recognizes the scale of the opportunity?
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Clark Square Capital
RT @deusexdividend: Cancel the pterodactyl, get me the biggest T-Rex money can buy https://t.co/Ra8L5Y2Xza
tweet
RT @deusexdividend: Cancel the pterodactyl, get me the biggest T-Rex money can buy https://t.co/Ra8L5Y2Xza
$NVDA @agnostoxxx ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐คช๐ฅณ๐ค https://t.co/rUmbXjSXRo tweet
Offshore
Video
Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: President Trump has said that this video by Democratic lawmakers is seditious and punishable by death. https://t.co/MQx4iUeEHo
tweet
JUST IN: President Trump has said that this video by Democratic lawmakers is seditious and punishable by death. https://t.co/MQx4iUeEHo
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
RT @DiMartinoBooth: "Like all good economists in order to read through these minutes we need 3 handsโฆNo Fed Chair in history has the network of CEOs that Powell has. He doesn't need an industrials report to know what is going on in this economyโฆ"
#fbn #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy
https://t.co/fp2PeNKdh3
tweet
RT @DiMartinoBooth: "Like all good economists in order to read through these minutes we need 3 handsโฆNo Fed Chair in history has the network of CEOs that Powell has. He doesn't need an industrials report to know what is going on in this economyโฆ"
#fbn #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy
https://t.co/fp2PeNKdh3
tweet
Offshore
Video
Quiver Quantitative
Two months ago, Eric Trump said that he thought Q4 would be unbelievable for crypto
$BTC has now fallen almost 25% since then. https://t.co/onndgZOxR2
tweet
Two months ago, Eric Trump said that he thought Q4 would be unbelievable for crypto
$BTC has now fallen almost 25% since then. https://t.co/onndgZOxR2
tweet