AkhenOsiris
The biggest "tail risk" for markets is that artificial-intelligence stocks are in a bubble, according to global fund managers polled by Bank of America.
An AI bubble was seen as the top tail risk by 45% of institutional investors in BofA's latest monthly survey. The finding showed that these fears have grown since October.
By comparison, 17% cited a disorderly rise in bond yields, which had been the top concern two months ago.
Another 16% cited inflation.
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The biggest "tail risk" for markets is that artificial-intelligence stocks are in a bubble, according to global fund managers polled by Bank of America.
An AI bubble was seen as the top tail risk by 45% of institutional investors in BofA's latest monthly survey. The finding showed that these fears have grown since October.
By comparison, 17% cited a disorderly rise in bond yields, which had been the top concern two months ago.
Another 16% cited inflation.
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AkhenOsiris
$META $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT
MoffetNathanson on Meta:
“To be crystal clear, we feel that this time is different and that defending the stock—even at this level—is harder because of the ramping of the massive incremental bet that Meta, without a cloud business or preexisting enterprise assets, has been making in building out a Meta Superintelligence business,” the note says. “Given the outlook, the issue from here is that even with strong top-line expectations, Q4 and 2026 margins will likely compress.”
Meta is “trying to punch above its weight” when compared to its peers. Although the company is spending a similar amount on AI infrastructure, it does not have a cloud platform like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, the analysts point out.
MoffettNathanson projects that Meta’s capex-to-revenue ratio will hit 47% next year. By comparison, Microsoft’s is 29%, Alphabet’s is 26%, and Amazon’s is 16%, MoffettNathanson estimates.
“Meta lacks a comparable coherent pathway for monetizing GenAI directly,” the firm says.
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$META $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT
MoffetNathanson on Meta:
“To be crystal clear, we feel that this time is different and that defending the stock—even at this level—is harder because of the ramping of the massive incremental bet that Meta, without a cloud business or preexisting enterprise assets, has been making in building out a Meta Superintelligence business,” the note says. “Given the outlook, the issue from here is that even with strong top-line expectations, Q4 and 2026 margins will likely compress.”
Meta is “trying to punch above its weight” when compared to its peers. Although the company is spending a similar amount on AI infrastructure, it does not have a cloud platform like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, the analysts point out.
MoffettNathanson projects that Meta’s capex-to-revenue ratio will hit 47% next year. By comparison, Microsoft’s is 29%, Alphabet’s is 26%, and Amazon’s is 16%, MoffettNathanson estimates.
“Meta lacks a comparable coherent pathway for monetizing GenAI directly,” the firm says.
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Offshore
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WealthyReadings
🚨Just dropped my favorite buys in today's market.
We’re talking $TMDX $PYPL $NBIS $SE & more.
Detailed breakdowns. No fluff. No hype. No ridiclous price targets or delusional takes.
Serious work for serious investors👇
https://t.co/NoJDQmxG2x
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🚨Just dropped my favorite buys in today's market.
We’re talking $TMDX $PYPL $NBIS $SE & more.
Detailed breakdowns. No fluff. No hype. No ridiclous price targets or delusional takes.
Serious work for serious investors👇
https://t.co/NoJDQmxG2x
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Adobe is trading at its lowest forward valuation in more than a decade.
Forward EV/EBIT: 11.7x
Is this too cheap?
$ADBE https://t.co/BH8tecYDRD
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Adobe is trading at its lowest forward valuation in more than a decade.
Forward EV/EBIT: 11.7x
Is this too cheap?
$ADBE https://t.co/BH8tecYDRD
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: The House has passed the Epstein Files Transparency Act.
The bill was proposed by Representatives Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna to force the release of Epstein files. https://t.co/KiK76M0I0O
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BREAKING: The House has passed the Epstein Files Transparency Act.
The bill was proposed by Representatives Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna to force the release of Epstein files. https://t.co/KiK76M0I0O
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Offshore
Video
WealthyReadings
What's the name of a bubble with revenue growth margin expansion and continuous demand?
Asking for a friend.
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What's the name of a bubble with revenue growth margin expansion and continuous demand?
Asking for a friend.
$GOOG casually dropping a benchmark-breaking model built in-house, trained on their own TPUs & infra.
Meanwhile $MSFT $NVDA Anthropic OpenAI & the rest of the world busy signing partnerships… and still getting outperformed.
Google is such an AI loser.
https://t.co/P6KD461mml tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Europe’s Quiet Fear Is A Dollar Crisis They Can’t Control
The ECB is acting like something is brewing underneath, forcing banks to run reverse stress tests and telling them the current calm won’t last.
The headlines talk about geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, climate shocks, and market corrections. All true. But none of that fully explains the tone. The tone feels like a central bank that sees a deeper vulnerability it can’t quite name directly.
What They’re Really Worried About
If you fold in what came out back in September, the picture sharpens. European officials were already debating whether they needed to pool their own dollar reserves, because they weren’t sure the Fed would always be there in a crisis. That’s not a small thing. That’s a quiet admission that Europe knows its system is still tied to the dollar in ways it cannot fully control.
You can hear that anxiety in the details. The ECB told banks to watch their dollar exposures. Analysts talked openly about not taking Fed swap lines for granted. And the BIS numbers were sitting in the background…a massive offshore dollar market supported by far too little non US dollar reserves.
Once you see that, the ECB’s latest warning makes a lot more sense. They’re not worried about a normal recession. They’re worried about a world where a sudden shock hits trade or geopolitics, global markets stumble, and the offshore dollar plumbing tightens at the exact moment Europe needs it open.
Europe can print euros. It cannot print dollars. And when the dollar system catches a cold, Europe is always the first one to feel it.
The Real Message Behind the Language
Europe no longer feels comfortable assuming the Fed will always backstop the global system the way it did in 2008 or 2020. Add rising geopolitical tension, higher policy uncertainty in the U.S., and the sheer scale of the offshore dollar market, and the ECB is suddenly sounding more cautious than the numbers alone justify.
This is recognition that the world is shifting, the dollar system is more political, and Europe sits inside that architecture whether it likes it or not.
That’s why the ECB keeps talking about unprecedented risks even in a supposedly benign environment. They’re not looking at today. They’re looking at the kind of dollar shock that doesn’t show up in the data until it’s already happening and trying to prepare for it ahead of time.
tweet
Europe’s Quiet Fear Is A Dollar Crisis They Can’t Control
The ECB is acting like something is brewing underneath, forcing banks to run reverse stress tests and telling them the current calm won’t last.
The headlines talk about geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, climate shocks, and market corrections. All true. But none of that fully explains the tone. The tone feels like a central bank that sees a deeper vulnerability it can’t quite name directly.
What They’re Really Worried About
If you fold in what came out back in September, the picture sharpens. European officials were already debating whether they needed to pool their own dollar reserves, because they weren’t sure the Fed would always be there in a crisis. That’s not a small thing. That’s a quiet admission that Europe knows its system is still tied to the dollar in ways it cannot fully control.
You can hear that anxiety in the details. The ECB told banks to watch their dollar exposures. Analysts talked openly about not taking Fed swap lines for granted. And the BIS numbers were sitting in the background…a massive offshore dollar market supported by far too little non US dollar reserves.
Once you see that, the ECB’s latest warning makes a lot more sense. They’re not worried about a normal recession. They’re worried about a world where a sudden shock hits trade or geopolitics, global markets stumble, and the offshore dollar plumbing tightens at the exact moment Europe needs it open.
Europe can print euros. It cannot print dollars. And when the dollar system catches a cold, Europe is always the first one to feel it.
The Real Message Behind the Language
Europe no longer feels comfortable assuming the Fed will always backstop the global system the way it did in 2008 or 2020. Add rising geopolitical tension, higher policy uncertainty in the U.S., and the sheer scale of the offshore dollar market, and the ECB is suddenly sounding more cautious than the numbers alone justify.
This is recognition that the world is shifting, the dollar system is more political, and Europe sits inside that architecture whether it likes it or not.
That’s why the ECB keeps talking about unprecedented risks even in a supposedly benign environment. They’re not looking at today. They’re looking at the kind of dollar shock that doesn’t show up in the data until it’s already happening and trying to prepare for it ahead of time.
Europe's banks face 'unprecedentedly high' risk of shocks, ECB warns https://t.co/1pOqjyhGmr https://t.co/1pOqjyhGmr tweet