Offshore
Photo
AkhenOsiris
The New Normal
https://t.co/ir9EeMtv4b
@Kantrowitz
"But OpenAI is still a private company. And so without quarterly financial filings, its executives’ statements will serve as proxies for whether it’s acting with financial responsibility. Given how many companies are depending on its success today, that matters a lot.
Being private allows small companies to figure these things out on the way to an IPO. But OpenAI is now so large that it has effectively outrun the grace period.
The company’s ramp up has happened so fast this new environment may seem bewildering. OpenAI said ChatGPT had 200 million users in August 2024, it doubled that to 400 million users in February 2025, and it doubled it again to 800 million users last month. The company had $5.5 billion in annualized revenue in 2024, it’s on track for $20 billion annualized revenue by the end of this year. It is the fastest-growing startup of all time, and it’s not particularly close.
To his credit, Altman said he’d welcome public-market scrutiny, at least to some degree, after making his “If you want to sell your shares, I’ll find you a buyer,” remark to investor Brad Gerstner. Speaking of his skeptics, Altman said, “I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that.”
But until that happens, the public will look at whatever Altman and his lieutenants say to make their best guess as to whether this historic private company might tank the stock market or send it to new heights (and the economy, potentially, as well).
This will magnify every little utterance, and the OpenAI team will need to appreciate that to avoid further episodes like the one it’s just experienced. It may not be totally fair, but it is the new normal."
tweet
The New Normal
https://t.co/ir9EeMtv4b
@Kantrowitz
"But OpenAI is still a private company. And so without quarterly financial filings, its executives’ statements will serve as proxies for whether it’s acting with financial responsibility. Given how many companies are depending on its success today, that matters a lot.
Being private allows small companies to figure these things out on the way to an IPO. But OpenAI is now so large that it has effectively outrun the grace period.
The company’s ramp up has happened so fast this new environment may seem bewildering. OpenAI said ChatGPT had 200 million users in August 2024, it doubled that to 400 million users in February 2025, and it doubled it again to 800 million users last month. The company had $5.5 billion in annualized revenue in 2024, it’s on track for $20 billion annualized revenue by the end of this year. It is the fastest-growing startup of all time, and it’s not particularly close.
To his credit, Altman said he’d welcome public-market scrutiny, at least to some degree, after making his “If you want to sell your shares, I’ll find you a buyer,” remark to investor Brad Gerstner. Speaking of his skeptics, Altman said, “I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that.”
But until that happens, the public will look at whatever Altman and his lieutenants say to make their best guess as to whether this historic private company might tank the stock market or send it to new heights (and the economy, potentially, as well).
This will magnify every little utterance, and the OpenAI team will need to appreciate that to avoid further episodes like the one it’s just experienced. It may not be totally fair, but it is the new normal."
tweet
Clark Square Capital
RT @InvestSpecial: @ClarkSquareCap shared interesting thoughts on $VRA, check his write-up for more details.
In short: VRA got even cheaper since Fund 1 filed a 13D in January.
They’re now exploring a $30M sale-leaseback on one facility vs. a $54M EV. Could be getting interesting now.
tweet
RT @InvestSpecial: @ClarkSquareCap shared interesting thoughts on $VRA, check his write-up for more details.
In short: VRA got even cheaper since Fund 1 filed a 13D in January.
They’re now exploring a $30M sale-leaseback on one facility vs. a $54M EV. Could be getting interesting now.
A potential sale of $VRA could be around the corner due to activist pressure.
Fund 1 Investments, an activist with a 10% stake, filed a 13D at the start of January urging VRA, a women’s handbag maker, to explore strategic alternatives, including an outright sale.
Fund 1 is an experienced player specializing in the apparel and consumer discretionary sectors, with stakes in several other retailers. They have a clear understanding of the brand’s value and its turnaround potential.
FYI, Fund 1 is also currently attempting to buy out another retailer, $DXLG, which is covered on SSI.
A few months prior, the prominent small-cap value fund Royce & Associates established a 5.6% stake. Notably, Royce & Associates increased its stake to 6.8% just weeks after Fund 1 Investments disclosed its 13D.
The activist believes the company could be sold for a meaningful premium.
“Vera Bradley generated $366 million of revenue and nearly $50 million of free cash flow, translating into a $1.5 billion enterprise value company. Today, analysts expect $380 million of revenue – essentially the same topline as when the Company IPO’d. Except, that same $360+ million of revenue is expected to burn cash and that $1.5 billion enterprise value implies negative value today, adjusted for the acquisition of Pura Vida.”
“We believe Vera Bradley can be a much more valuable company and has a timely opportunity to return to its winning ways. If the Company were out of the public spotlight, there are many advantages for Vera Bradley: i) ability to focus on the brand revival without quarterly earnings, ii) cost savings opportunities unavailable in the public markets, and iii) more time for management to focus on the business as opposed to frequent meetings with shareholders.”
The company does look cheap, trading at around 0.4x EV/historically low sales. Gross margins aren’t terrible at 52% on an LTM basis either. So with some cost-cutting, the company could actually become profitable again. If they can reach about 5% EBIT margins on LTM sales, they could generate around $50M in EBITDA, valuing the company at 5x EV/EBITDA. Historical margins are significantly higher than 5%, so it’s not totally unimaginable for them to return to those levels. Management has already announced a $20m cost cut so clealy there is a way to improve earnings here.
In this context, the activist interest isn’t surprising. The question is whether the founders—who own about 20% of the company, with at least one still actively involved—are willing to sell at this point.
I’m staying on the sidelines, mainly due to my limited understanding of the brand and its competitive positioning. However, the setup certainly looks interesting, especially with Fund 1 Investments involved—they’re clearly better equipped to evaluate VRA’s potential in a sale scenario. Also, if any of you have looked into this, I’d love to hear your thoughts as always. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Dalius - Special Sits (@InvestSpecial) on X
A potential sale of $VRA could be around the corner due to activist pressure.
Fund 1 Investments, an activist with a 10% stake, filed a 13D at the start of January urging VRA, a women’s handbag maker, to explore strategic alternatives, including an outright…
Fund 1 Investments, an activist with a 10% stake, filed a 13D at the start of January urging VRA, a women’s handbag maker, to explore strategic alternatives, including an outright…
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
RT @BradoCapital: The rise of AUM for the publicly traded Private Equity giants.
>$5 Trillion now
$BN $BX $APO $KKR $CG $ARES $TPG https://t.co/mgTykoeU5R
tweet
RT @BradoCapital: The rise of AUM for the publicly traded Private Equity giants.
>$5 Trillion now
$BN $BX $APO $KKR $CG $ARES $TPG https://t.co/mgTykoeU5R
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
$XYZ Cash App gross profit rose 24% Y/Y in Q3.
The segment is now 61% of Block's gross profit. https://t.co/f1uxWjHhmc
tweet
$XYZ Cash App gross profit rose 24% Y/Y in Q3.
The segment is now 61% of Block's gross profit. https://t.co/f1uxWjHhmc
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
Innovator's Dilemma?
Digital remittance provider Remitly looks set to surpass Western Union in North America.
$RELY $WU https://t.co/t2aRijVT4y
tweet
Innovator's Dilemma?
Digital remittance provider Remitly looks set to surpass Western Union in North America.
$RELY $WU https://t.co/t2aRijVT4y
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals
$BRK $MCD $QCOM $ARM $ANET $NVO $AMGN $PFE $HOOD $SBUX $RACE $MAR $ABNB $DDOG $FTNT $CPNG $AXON $TTWO $XYZ $YUM $LYV $EXPE $FIG $TTD $TOST $HUBS $TWLO $GPN $PINS $DKNG $SNAP $TEM $NYT $CELH $HIMS $PAYC $DUOL $KVYO $MTCH $DOCN $PTON
https://t.co/ZdcVNsAuAs
tweet
📊 This Week in Visuals
$BRK $MCD $QCOM $ARM $ANET $NVO $AMGN $PFE $HOOD $SBUX $RACE $MAR $ABNB $DDOG $FTNT $CPNG $AXON $TTWO $XYZ $YUM $LYV $EXPE $FIG $TTD $TOST $HUBS $TWLO $GPN $PINS $DKNG $SNAP $TEM $NYT $CELH $HIMS $PAYC $DUOL $KVYO $MTCH $DOCN $PTON
https://t.co/ZdcVNsAuAs
tweet
Clark Square Capital
RT @atelicinvest: Tag your fav twitter accounts that do fundamental research.
Self-tag if you research and post ideas.
Looking to integrate tweet feed into ticker-notes.
Retweet for visibility pls.
tweet
RT @atelicinvest: Tag your fav twitter accounts that do fundamental research.
Self-tag if you research and post ideas.
Looking to integrate tweet feed into ticker-notes.
Retweet for visibility pls.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
It costs $13 more per night to stay at a Marriott than an Airbnb, on average.
Average Daily Rate:
Marriott: $184
Airbnb: $171
$ABNB $MAR https://t.co/BUuKb1v5gL
tweet
It costs $13 more per night to stay at a Marriott than an Airbnb, on average.
Average Daily Rate:
Marriott: $184
Airbnb: $171
$ABNB $MAR https://t.co/BUuKb1v5gL
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
🗓️ What are you watching this week?
• Monday: $CART $CRWV $MNDY $PSKY
• Tuesday: $SE $SONY
• Wednesday: $CRCL $CSCO $DLO $FLUT $ONON
• Thursday: $AMAT $DIS $JD $NU $TCEHY
All visualized in our newsletter. https://t.co/hXje0DiQMM
tweet
🗓️ What are you watching this week?
• Monday: $CART $CRWV $MNDY $PSKY
• Tuesday: $SE $SONY
• Wednesday: $CRCL $CSCO $DLO $FLUT $ONON
• Thursday: $AMAT $DIS $JD $NU $TCEHY
All visualized in our newsletter. https://t.co/hXje0DiQMM
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
Cloud computing flipped the IT infrastructure market on its head in less than a decade.
10 years ago, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (the leading server supplier) was generating 4x as much revenue as AWS.
Today, AWS generates ~4x more than HPE.
$AMZN $HPE https://t.co/aDoxLgA3FD
tweet
Cloud computing flipped the IT infrastructure market on its head in less than a decade.
10 years ago, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (the leading server supplier) was generating 4x as much revenue as AWS.
Today, AWS generates ~4x more than HPE.
$AMZN $HPE https://t.co/aDoxLgA3FD
tweet
AkhenOsiris
😂
tweet
😂
two constants on Twitter....
hate for Boomers..
and hate for Indians.
Damn! I qualify on both counts!
:) tweet