Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
OpenAI reportedly plans a potential $1 TRILLION IPO in 2027.
For their sake, I hope they still have some market share left by then.
$GOOGL and Anthropic are eating their lunch ๐ https://t.co/rTQErtFbOD
tweet
OpenAI reportedly plans a potential $1 TRILLION IPO in 2027.
For their sake, I hope they still have some market share left by then.
$GOOGL and Anthropic are eating their lunch ๐ https://t.co/rTQErtFbOD
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
$DUOL storytime:
โข 2022 ~ $83: A green whatโฆ? ๐ฆ
โข 2023 ~ $153: Looks interesting
โข 2024 ~ $226: Great business
โข 2025 ~ $329: 100x generational buy
March 2025 ~ $283: AI will kill it.
May 2025 ~ $519: Just kidding, 100x generational buy.
September 2025 ~ $271: AI will kill it.
Early October ~ $322: Or maybe it wonโt.
Today ~ $268: AI will definitely kill it.
Oh man, the stock market really is an entertaining show ๐คญ
tweet
$DUOL storytime:
โข 2022 ~ $83: A green whatโฆ? ๐ฆ
โข 2023 ~ $153: Looks interesting
โข 2024 ~ $226: Great business
โข 2025 ~ $329: 100x generational buy
March 2025 ~ $283: AI will kill it.
May 2025 ~ $519: Just kidding, 100x generational buy.
September 2025 ~ $271: AI will kill it.
Early October ~ $322: Or maybe it wonโt.
Today ~ $268: AI will definitely kill it.
Oh man, the stock market really is an entertaining show ๐คญ
$DUOL visualized:
โข How they make money
โข Sentiment
โข Geography
โข Business segments
โข Financials
โข Cash
โข Margins
โข Valuation
โข My thoughts: will AI make $DUOL obsolete?
Let's dive in! ๐งต๐ https://t.co/z07EkovQVS tweet
Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
$AMZN delivered a very strong Q3
โข Revenue $180.1B vs Est. $177.8B
โข EPS $1.95 vs Est. $1.57
โข AWS revenue $33.0B vs Est. $32.4B
Q4 Guidance
โข Revenue $210B vs Est. $209B
Beat & raise๐ https://t.co/SFHyeQpYAH
tweet
$AMZN delivered a very strong Q3
โข Revenue $180.1B vs Est. $177.8B
โข EPS $1.95 vs Est. $1.57
โข AWS revenue $33.0B vs Est. $32.4B
Q4 Guidance
โข Revenue $210B vs Est. $209B
Beat & raise๐ https://t.co/SFHyeQpYAH
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
Amazon $AMZN Q3 2025 Report ๐๏ธ
โ REV: $180.17B (+13% YoY)
โ EPS: $1.95 (+36% YoY)
โ๏ธ AWS $33.01B (+20% YoY)
๐ต ADS $17.70B (+24% YoY) https://t.co/KiVF7e0cqQ
tweet
Amazon $AMZN Q3 2025 Report ๐๏ธ
โ REV: $180.17B (+13% YoY)
โ EPS: $1.95 (+36% YoY)
โ๏ธ AWS $33.01B (+20% YoY)
๐ต ADS $17.70B (+24% YoY) https://t.co/KiVF7e0cqQ
17. Amazon $AMZN (Thurs PM)
๐๏ธ REV Est: $177.72B (+12%)
๐๏ธ EPS Est: $1.58 (+10%)
๐ต NTM P/E: 32x
๐ต NTM FCF Yield: 1.20% https://t.co/7zx5Sx9qiF tweet
Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
$TEAM posting a solid Q3:
โข Revenue: $1.43B vs. Est. $1.40B
โข EPS: $1.04 vs. Est. $0.67
Subscription Revenue: $998M +26% YoY https://t.co/989m0yBBA3
tweet
$TEAM posting a solid Q3:
โข Revenue: $1.43B vs. Est. $1.40B
โข EPS: $1.04 vs. Est. $0.67
Subscription Revenue: $998M +26% YoY https://t.co/989m0yBBA3
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.13x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 1.10%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.60%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in operating cash flow & ~57% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $93.18B
โขLong-Term Debt: $57.92B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 54x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
โขLTM: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
โขLTM: 24.8%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW๐(โ )
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $32.88B
โขCAGR: 8.71%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.78B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 49.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in OCF & ~57% LESS in FCF per share
Weโre using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.11 (21% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.21 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $338.24๐ต โฆ ~21% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $318.34๐ต โฆ ~18% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $298.45๐ต โฆ ~14% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $278.55๐ต โฆ ~11% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $116.38B
๐Ads revenue: $61.23B
Combined, these segments generated $177.61B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $219๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.13x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 1.10%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.60%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in operating cash flow & ~57% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $93.18B
โขLong-Term Debt: $57.92B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 54x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
โขLTM: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
โขLTM: 24.8%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW๐(โ )
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $32.88B
โขCAGR: 8.71%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.78B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 49.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in OCF & ~57% LESS in FCF per share
Weโre using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.11 (21% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.21 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $338.24๐ต โฆ ~21% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $318.34๐ต โฆ ~18% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $298.45๐ต โฆ ~14% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $278.55๐ต โฆ ~11% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $116.38B
๐Ads revenue: $61.23B
Combined, these segments generated $177.61B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $219๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
tweet