App Economy Insights
$NFLX Netflix Q3 FY25:

• Revenue +17% Y/Y to $11.5B (in-line).
• Operating margin 28% (-1pp Y/Y).
• EPS $5.87 ($1.10 miss).

FY25 Guidance:
• Revenue ~$45.1B ($0.1B raise).
• Operating margin 29% (0.5pp cut). https://t.co/jABYj1agzF
tweet

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Intuitive Surgical $ISRG Q3 2025 Report 🗓️

✅ REV: $2.51B (+18% YoY)
✅ EPS: $2.40 (+30% YoY) https://t.co/xjXfHpWlfo

5. Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (Tue PM)

🗓️ REV Est: $2.41B (+18%)
🗓️ EPS Est: $1.99 (+8%)

💵 NTM P/E: 52x
💵 NTM FCF Yield: 2.06%

$ISRG exemplifies the razor-and-blades model https://t.co/TO12y9YJCU - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
tweet

App Economy Insights
Full breakdown of $NFLX Q3 is out!

🍿 The KPop Demon Hunters effect.
🎙️ Why podcasts are coming to Netflix.
🎮 The new gaming push.
▶️ Netflix's YouTube problem.
https://t.co/YgFavVrFzM
tweet

AkhenOsiris
$AMZN $GOOGL

We all remember last year November when the AWS/Anthropic relationship deepened.

"Anthropic is now naming AWS its primary training partner, in addition to continuing to be its primary cloud provider, and will use AWS Trainium and Inferentia chips to train and deploy its future foundation models. Both companies will continue to work closely to keep advancing Trainium's hardware and software capabilities."

Is whatever Anthropic spending on GCP smaller than what they will spend on AWS? That would be the logical conclusion with AWS being the primary cloud/training provider. With Project Rainier ramping, the Anthropic spend on AWS increasing this year (some numbers from Ed Zitron yesterday) and SemiAnalysis and other sell-side predicting Claude AI related inflection (recently leaked Anthropic growth aspirations for 2026 are strong), it follows AWS will be enjoying the fruits as well here.

https://t.co/mAjvJRPWvu
tweet

Yellowbrick Investing
$VICR

$vicr has $360M in cash with no debt. Theyre vertically integrated with $1B+ all US mfg capacity in MA.

On tonight’s call they said they and two competitors were competing for business from a hyperscaler and they were told only their product matched the requirements and so they will be ramping with that hyperscaler in Q1 plus two OEM’s in q3 next yr. Sounded like Google to me but could be wrong.

Also said high margin licensing rev now at a 90M annual run rate with line of sight to 200M in next two years and that doesn’t include many other assets they can monetize with licensing deals (they basically own most the IP in this industry)

This is a 500M rev business trading at just a 2B EV that’s taking a big step up in profitability and talked confidently about filling out their factory completely which has been under utilized. Talked about 98% yields where previously they had issues with poor yields which has now been more than fixed. Estimates for next year don’t include any of this ramp from these three new large customers since they have rev increasing just 3% and margins way too low given licensing step up.

People out here paying 3B for a 60M rev company in $nvts who’s selling stock to raise $… in that case $vicr would be over $300 from mid 60’s.

Meanwhile the float dynamics on $vicr are such that the free float is only 22M shares so things could get crazy on any big run up as we’ve seen with $arm and many others that go on huge runs from that… The 78 year old CEO owns about half the company limiting the free float substantially…

Given the age of the CEO and all of $vicr IP would be a great m&a candidate as well. - TrumpGrift Capital🇺🇦
tweet

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: At 26x Earnings & a 4.16% FCF Yield, $SPGI appears to be one of the better risk/reward long-term opportunities in today’s market

*(NTM) https://t.co/17nSo9cLlK
tweet

Capital Employed
Another fresh batch of Q3 letters added. ✍️

Including @eriksen_tim who always seems to an array of interesting ideas in OTC markets.

The letter from @HiddenGemsInves is a great read too, mentions some decent and undervalued UK companies.

https://t.co/wUDSfhTdYl https://t.co/pGHjMKDntV
tweet

Capital Employed
Forager Funds have highlighted four interesting Japanese stocks... 🇯🇵

1) OBIC Business Consultants $4733 - software business.
2) DreamArts $4811 - micro-cap software business.
3) Visional $4194 - recruitment.
4) eWeLL $5038 - subscription business to do with nursing.

Any good?
tweet

Yellowbrick Investing
$AIRO short

$AIRO (AIRO Group Holdings Inc.) is an interesting potential short to watch over the next few months. Have a more in-depth write-up that I'm working on and willing to share to anyone interested.

To summarize:

AIRO is a roll-up of small aerospace businesses with little strategic alignment. Management touts this as a "aerospace and defense innovator", capitalizing on the broader hype going on with drones and eVTOLs.

Potential short because:

1. AIRO is reliant on dilutive and predatory related-party financings to sustain operations. Management has already shown a willingness early on overpromise and underdeliver, and to disregard governance and engage in value-destructive practices for their own benefit

(Primary offering raised $69mm gross, only ~$17mm going towards supporting the growth narrative management promotes, the rest of the funds were used to repay investor notes which carried predatory terms. Disclosure around these notes is intentionally left opaque, but form 4s reveal that the Chairman, CEO, and COO were beneficiaries / secondary offering only 2-months after IPO, with a significant portion of proceeds noted to be used for buying out material management stakes prior to lock-up expiry; 15% implied dilution).

2. AIRO currently screens well due to one-time accounting gimmicks that will subside – ~$6mm reported vs. ~($30mm) normalized net income (from debt-to-equity settlements and adjustments to FV of contingent consideration). Business is fundamentally weak – eVTOL business exists as only AI images on their website, and the company itself derives ~90% of revenue from Sky-Watch (drone segment with only 1 major product), which has no discernable competitive advantage or durable contracts. Sky-Watch has temporarily benefited from donations and defense hardware testing initiatives in Ukraine (third-party expert calls echo this), meaning sales are likely to deflect

3. Executives (Chairman and COO) were key figures at UpHealth and Ocean Biomedical (both heavily embroiled in lawsuits, accused of fraud, and went to zero)

The tricky part here is when and how does this break, which I don't have a view on at this point. However, some things to consider is that AIRO has ~$101mm of cash on the BS and $21.8mm of debt to pay off NTM, with ~3-4 Qs left using last quarters burn as run-rate. There's a case to be made that burn should be a lot higher given near term pressures on working capital (mentioned by mgmt), along with unfunded capex in their eVTOL segment. Past companies ran by these guys have also had a history of diluting their investors (17% dilution through PP at UpHealth, ATM and toxic convertible structure at Ocean Biomed). - Penny Dust
tweet

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Moody’s $MCO Q3 2025 Report 🗓️

✅ REV: $2.01B (+11% YoY)
✅ EPS: $3.92 (+22% YoY) https://t.co/e82YBsJ5he

7. Moody’s $MCO (Wed AM)

🗓️ REV Est: $1.95B (+7%)
🗓️ EPS Est: $3.68 (+15%)

💵 NTM P/E: 31x
💵 NTM FCF Yield: 3.25%

$MCO analytics segment has been its primary growth engine over the past decade https://t.co/ImtOhHyi7g - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
tweet