Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
The TransDigm acquisition checklist $TDG
1. Proprietary?
2. Aerospace?
3. Sole source?
4. Significant aftermarket?
If yes…
Does it meet management’s 20% IRR threshold over a 5 year period? https://t.co/iGgN1ldv6V
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The TransDigm acquisition checklist $TDG
1. Proprietary?
2. Aerospace?
3. Sole source?
4. Significant aftermarket?
If yes…
Does it meet management’s 20% IRR threshold over a 5 year period? https://t.co/iGgN1ldv6V
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: The White House has reportedly begun demolishing the East Wing to build President Trump's ballroom. https://t.co/DJF5Yzboac
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BREAKING: The White House has reportedly begun demolishing the East Wing to build President Trump's ballroom. https://t.co/DJF5Yzboac
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AkhenOsiris
Preach Eric, preach!
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Preach Eric, preach!
The setup for $AMZN is starting to remind me some of $GOOG's a few months ago.
Not long ago, Alphabet’s shares were depressed due to worries about query share loss to third-party LLMs. But fixating on query share loss (though it was very much going on) made investors lose sight of a bunch of AI tailwinds: AI boosting total query volumes and improving ad ROIs, GCP taking share with the help of TPUs and the infra cost advantage they help enable, and TPUs getting sold externally (to Anthropic, xAI, etc.) for the first time.
Much the same way, Amazon has been pressured by worries about AWS (hampered some by its reliance on Trainium) seeing slower cloud revenue growth than Google, $MSFT, $ORCL and neoclouds. But fixating on recent AWS share losses is making investors lose sight of:
- How Anthropic’s breakneck growth (annualized revenue up ~7x already this year) is poised to be a strong tailwind (even if some of Anthropic’s compute needs are being met by Google)
- AWS (aided by its unmatched customer base and product breadth) being well-positioned to benefit as AI compute demand from enterprises and ISVs picks up
- AWS probably benefiting more than anyone as agents start boosting demand for non-AI cloud computing workloads
- Amazon getting serious – probably more so than any other tech giant – about using AI to cut costs and drive margins higher
Also, it looks like Amazon's ad business is doing well, with reports/checks pointing to strong CTV growth and DSP share gains.
One difference between Amazon today and Alphabet a few months ago is that Alphabet’s stock was also pressured by DOJ lawsuit fears, with shares popping after a court’s proposed remedies weren’t as bad as feared. Amazon’s stock isn’t dealing with any kind of similar antitrust overhang. But the similarities in terms of markets focusing on AI headwinds while ignoring a bunch of AI tailwinds look pretty strong. tweet
Yellowbrick Investing
$SPHR
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$SPHR
$SPHR confirmed $130m ticket sales / 51 calendar days = $2.55m ticket bookings/calendar day.
Probably $145m including F&B at showing or $2.8m Experiences "bookings"/day.
Sellside '26e Experiences estimate = $452m or $1.24m/calendar day.
Good setup...
https://t.co/6zl7yi6HQq tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Paris Analyst (@ParisAnalyst) on X
$SPHR confirmed $130m ticket sales / 51 calendar days = $2.55m ticket bookings/calendar day.
Probably $145m including F&B at showing or $2.8m Experiences "bookings"/day.
Sellside '26e Experiences estimate = $452m or $1.24m/calendar day.
Good setup...…
Probably $145m including F&B at showing or $2.8m Experiences "bookings"/day.
Sellside '26e Experiences estimate = $452m or $1.24m/calendar day.
Good setup...…
Offshore
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Capital Employed
Five new Q3 fund letters just added.
If you're interested in gold, the letters from Auscap Capital Management and @LawrenceLepard are definitely worth a read.
https://t.co/wUDSfhTdYl https://t.co/a1uxfk10pm
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Five new Q3 fund letters just added.
If you're interested in gold, the letters from Auscap Capital Management and @LawrenceLepard are definitely worth a read.
https://t.co/wUDSfhTdYl https://t.co/a1uxfk10pm
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Offshore
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Capital Employed
Make that 7. Q3 letters from @DeepSailCapital and @LaughingH20Cap have just been added too. 👇
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Make that 7. Q3 letters from @DeepSailCapital and @LaughingH20Cap have just been added too. 👇
Five new Q3 fund letters just added.
If you're interested in gold, the letters from Auscap Capital Management and @LawrenceLepard are definitely worth a read.
https://t.co/wUDSfhTdYl https://t.co/a1uxfk10pm tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
GE Aerospace $GE Q3 2025 Report 🗓️
✅ REV: $12.18B (+24% YoY)
✅ EPS: $1.66 (+44% YoY)
•FCF $2.4B, +30% YoY
•Raising FY 2025 Guidance
•FY 25’ EPS $6.00 - $6.25
•FY 25’ FCF $7.1B - $7.3B https://t.co/fkXyJ8Eu8B
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GE Aerospace $GE Q3 2025 Report 🗓️
✅ REV: $12.18B (+24% YoY)
✅ EPS: $1.66 (+44% YoY)
•FCF $2.4B, +30% YoY
•Raising FY 2025 Guidance
•FY 25’ EPS $6.00 - $6.25
•FY 25’ FCF $7.1B - $7.3B https://t.co/fkXyJ8Eu8B
1. GE Aerospace $GE (Tue AM)
🗓️ REV Est: $10.38B (+5%)
🗓️ EPS Est: $1.47 (+29%)
💵 NTM P/E: 49x
💵 NTM FCF Yield: 2.37%
As of LTM, services revenue comprises ~71% of total revenue, with GE’s installed base steadily expanding https://t.co/48iOpwr6Q0 tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Philip Morris $PM Q3 2025 Report 🗓️
✅ REV: $10.85B (+9% YoY)
✅ EPS: $2.24 (+17% YoY)
•Smoke-free business (SFB) shipment volumes +17% YoY
$PM has done an exceptional job transforming the business over the last 5 years
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Philip Morris $PM Q3 2025 Report 🗓️
✅ REV: $10.85B (+9% YoY)
✅ EPS: $2.24 (+17% YoY)
•Smoke-free business (SFB) shipment volumes +17% YoY
$PM has done an exceptional job transforming the business over the last 5 years
2. Philip Morris $PM (Tue AM)
🗓️ REV Est: $10.66B (+8%)
🗓️ EPS Est: $2.10 (+10%)
💵 NTM P/E: 19x
💵 NTM FCF Yield: 1.25%*
Smoke-free products now make up over half of $PM total revenue, marking a remarkable transformation of the business https://t.co/HRr03YRoXa tweet
Offshore
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ToffCap
👇👇
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👇👇
Out with TMM #75, our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥
A reminder that there's always plenty of free stuff in front of the paywall!!
This week:
- insiders showing the way
- upcoming deal busts (ioo)
- steady liquidations at still great r/r
- stocks with some juicy hype potential (we've been hitting quite a few home-runs on these ones)
- a lot of activist action (one of our highest alpha generating flags)
- some interesting rights issues
- 'just' some great lookin' companies
- ... and much more.
As always @ToffCap
Enjoy! tweet