Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @TheShortBear: On Bubbles.
There are certain lessons in this profession that cannot be taught, only endured. To understand the true nature of a mania, I often wish one could have lived through the final days of Bitcoin in 2017. It remains the most clarifying portrait of what it means for "everyone" to finally be in.
You could feel it.
It was the day two different taxi drivers, offered you unsolicited advice on digital gold. It was in the lecture halls, where classmates who had never spoken of markets were suddenly experts, their positions barely two weeks old.
Every last soul who joined the chorus because they heard the music from the street was, without exception, destined for ruin.
I had the discipline to buy at eight thousand and the foresight to sell near thirteen, only to watch it scream towards twenty in less than ten days.
That is the moment the true test begins. The siren's call of the crowd grows deafening, tempting you to abandon all reason and leap back into the frenzy.
A true bubble, you learn, is a relentless force.
It seeks out every corner of society, lighting the fire of FOMO in hearts that would otherwise have nothing to do with the markets. It is a contagion that travels down the chain of conviction, from the seasoned professional to the last holdout, your grandfather's taxi driver.
Only then, when the last skeptic has been converted, is the dream ready to collapse. You know you are in the presence of something more than a simple hype bubble when the social calculus shifts entirely.
It is that rare moment when holding a preposterous, heterodox idea provides you less pain than being marginalized.
When the trade is no longer about profit, but about conforming.
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RT @TheShortBear: On Bubbles.
There are certain lessons in this profession that cannot be taught, only endured. To understand the true nature of a mania, I often wish one could have lived through the final days of Bitcoin in 2017. It remains the most clarifying portrait of what it means for "everyone" to finally be in.
You could feel it.
It was the day two different taxi drivers, offered you unsolicited advice on digital gold. It was in the lecture halls, where classmates who had never spoken of markets were suddenly experts, their positions barely two weeks old.
Every last soul who joined the chorus because they heard the music from the street was, without exception, destined for ruin.
I had the discipline to buy at eight thousand and the foresight to sell near thirteen, only to watch it scream towards twenty in less than ten days.
That is the moment the true test begins. The siren's call of the crowd grows deafening, tempting you to abandon all reason and leap back into the frenzy.
A true bubble, you learn, is a relentless force.
It seeks out every corner of society, lighting the fire of FOMO in hearts that would otherwise have nothing to do with the markets. It is a contagion that travels down the chain of conviction, from the seasoned professional to the last holdout, your grandfather's taxi driver.
Only then, when the last skeptic has been converted, is the dream ready to collapse. You know you are in the presence of something more than a simple hype bubble when the social calculus shifts entirely.
It is that rare moment when holding a preposterous, heterodox idea provides you less pain than being marginalized.
When the trade is no longer about profit, but about conforming.
tweet
Offshore
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ToffCap
RT @ToffCap: Out with a new TMM, our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥
This week:
- profitable companies selling assets and returning capital
- some very intriguing merger arbs
- odd-lot provisions
- busted stocks but with insiders massively purchasing shares
- cash shells with some (upcoming) action
- a lot of activist action (one of our highest alpha generating flags)
- drugs
- small softwarecos ready to fly
- ... and much more.
As always @ToffCap
Enjoy!
tweet
RT @ToffCap: Out with a new TMM, our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥
This week:
- profitable companies selling assets and returning capital
- some very intriguing merger arbs
- odd-lot provisions
- busted stocks but with insiders massively purchasing shares
- cash shells with some (upcoming) action
- a lot of activist action (one of our highest alpha generating flags)
- drugs
- small softwarecos ready to fly
- ... and much more.
As always @ToffCap
Enjoy!
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
ASML Holding $ASML is set to report Q3 2025 earnings in less than 8 hours 🗓️
REV est: €7.74B (+4% YoY)
EPS est: €5.36 (+2% YoY) https://t.co/iIFeCv2REH
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ASML Holding $ASML is set to report Q3 2025 earnings in less than 8 hours 🗓️
REV est: €7.74B (+4% YoY)
EPS est: €5.36 (+2% YoY) https://t.co/iIFeCv2REH
ASML Holding $ASML Stock in 4 Charts 📊
1. Grew RPS & EPS at 21% & 22% CAGRs since 2015
2. Reduced Total Shares Outstanding by -7% over the last 5 years
3. Expanded Gross, Operating, & Net Margins
4. Service & Field Option Revenue rose at a +16% CAGR, now >23% of Total Revenue tweet
AkhenOsiris
Is there a more Peter Lynch stonk out there than $AMZN?...every Tom, Dick, and Harry (both senior amd junior) know the company and rely on it...has one of the best software businesses ever in existence, premier margins, exceptional growth at scale...has built up an advertising business that only ranks behind Meta and Google...is home to the NFL and NBA for years to come.
Valuation at the low end of its 10yr range. Lots of smoke that Anthropic revs will finally spark that AWS inflection (stonk still hostage to the cloud biz).
The problem? AI loser tag is sticking. But the company has a shit ton to gain from AI on the retail side, where profitability can really scale with physical AI.
If only Rip Van @ajassy would wake up. Let's fucking go.
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Is there a more Peter Lynch stonk out there than $AMZN?...every Tom, Dick, and Harry (both senior amd junior) know the company and rely on it...has one of the best software businesses ever in existence, premier margins, exceptional growth at scale...has built up an advertising business that only ranks behind Meta and Google...is home to the NFL and NBA for years to come.
Valuation at the low end of its 10yr range. Lots of smoke that Anthropic revs will finally spark that AWS inflection (stonk still hostage to the cloud biz).
The problem? AI loser tag is sticking. But the company has a shit ton to gain from AI on the retail side, where profitability can really scale with physical AI.
If only Rip Van @ajassy would wake up. Let's fucking go.
tweet
Offshore
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Offshore
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Umesh
Wonderful sref!
[PROMPT] --chaos 50 --sref 506925685 --profile 6xd26z9 --stylize 500 https://t.co/NFOMDfhJZG
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Wonderful sref!
[PROMPT] --chaos 50 --sref 506925685 --profile 6xd26z9 --stylize 500 https://t.co/NFOMDfhJZG
tweet