Yellowbrick Investing
Added 54 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final):
@PineGroveCap04 - $CSU.TO (update)
@ashwinkrish1208 - $BUKS
@Manateeres - $SLDE (short)
@TheParadoxIntel - $FWONK
@boujee_banker - $PBAM
@OSA_Rochester - $KBSX (overview)
fund letters
and more... https://t.co/5se3nue8gp
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Investing visuals
September Portfolio Recap! 🌟

I shared the full recap and plan for October in the Savvy community today (link in bio).

Highlights:
• Portfolio +50.7% YTD and +16.8% in September
• Closed a long-term multibagger
• New position: a high quality software name
• Trimmed 3 positions
• Added to 2 position with great risk/reward

Community highlights:
• Tech talk: is AI hype or megatrend (my view from working in the industry)
• Market thoughts: a ball game
• 30+ position related updates and thoughts

If you'd like to see my real-time moves, thoughts on tech, research notes, full portfolio and more, consider joining our Savvy community!
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Quiver Quantitative
Wow.

Marjorie Taylor Greene filed an April 4th purchase of Lam Research stock earlier this year.

$LRCX has now risen 148% since her trade.

Also a purchase of Palantir on the same week. $PLTR is up 140% since.

Also Impinj. $PI is up 149% since.

Look at these charts: https://t.co/YyutObX29o
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Yellowbrick Investing
$LUXE

Surprised to see $LUXE trade down below $8 on a strong print for Mytheresa, and now at $7.70.

For those interested, here's how I'm thinking about it.

LUXE has 150m shs FD. At USD $7.70, the market cap is $1,115M USD, or EUR 980 million.

Now, LUXE has EUR 600m in cash (EUR 555 from the Richemont deal).

Mgmt had said they will spend EUR 400m on restructuring and cash burn for the off-price biz. But we also know that they will likely shut down Outnet and sell Yoox. They are likely to get some $ for Yoox and get some $ from inventory, etc. So call it EUR 300m.

That's an EV of EUR 680m.

Mytheresa on its own will do EUR 1 billion in sales this coming year. Last year they did 5% EBITDA margins, but I think they can do ~6% this year. That's EUR 60m in EBITDA. So you can essentially get the biz for 11x Mytheresa EBITDA only. In ~2/3 years, I think Mytheresa can get to the 7-9% margins management has as a target.

Now, you also have Net-a-Porter/Mr.Porter. That's another EUR 1B in sales. Mgmt thinks they can also get this to ~8% margins in a couple of years. I think it's doable. NAP/MRP spend ~800bps more as a % of revenue than Mytheresa on SG&A. Just right-sizing this should get them to the target, not to mention the considerable synergies that exist between these businesses (advertising, shipping, mgmt, etc).

So in ~3 years, Mytheresa/NAP/MRP will be at EUR 2.4B in sales, at an 8% margin, that's EUR 200m in EBITDA. At a 10x multiple (which is conservative), and with EUR 300m in cash, that's worth EUR 2,300m or $2.7B in USD -- $18 per share in USD. Considerable upside from the current price of <$8.- Clark Square Capital
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.13x
•5-Year Mean: 22.10x

•NTM FCF Yield: 1.10%
•5-Year Mean: 2.60%

As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in operating cash flow & ~57% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $93.18B
•Long-Term Debt: $57.92B

$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 54x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•2024: 15.5%
•LTM: 15.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•2024: 24.3%
•LTM: 24.8%

$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2019: $280.52B
•2024: $637.96B
•CAGR: 17.85%

FREE CASH FLOW🆗(✅)
•2019: $21.65B
•2024: $32.88B
•CAGR: 8.71%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $1.15
•2024: $5.53
•CAGR: 36.90%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.78B

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 49.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%

*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in OCF & ~57% LESS in FCF per share

We’re using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:

2025E: $13.11 (21% YoY) *FY Dec

2026E: $16.21 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.90 (23% YoY)

$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):

17x P/OCF: $338.24💵 … ~21% CAGR

16x P/OCF: $318.34💵 … ~18% CAGR

15x P/OCF: $298.45💵 … ~14% CAGR

14x P/OCF: $278.55💵 … ~11% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate & below its historical average

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:

☁️AWS revenue: $116.38B
📈Ads revenue: $61.23B

Combined, these segments generated $177.61B net revenue … with ~37% Operating Income Margin

Today at $219💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing

Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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App Economy Insights
OpenAI just hit a $500B valuation.

Now the world's most valuable private company.

Here’s how the top 10 stack up. https://t.co/ISzEp5kJED
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AkhenOsiris
WSJ:

Huang and various Nvidia executives have complained privately about Lutnick’s tactics and the slow progress to other administration officials, some of the people said. Sacks and others in the administration are also annoyed, they said. One senior administration official said Lutnick hasn’t held up the deal, but other administration officials contended he had slowed the process down.

The U.A.E. is progressing ahead with its agreement using a 1:1 ratio of the nation’s investment in the U.S. in exchange for billions of dollars worth of Nvidia’s chips, the senior administration official said. At least $1 billion will be sent from the U.A.E. to the U.S. in exchange for at least $1 billion worth of Nvidia chips by the end of the year, according to the official. The U.A.E. would have to pay separately for the chips, some other people said.
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