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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $SNPS ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 30.84x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 37.80x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 2.42%
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 2.67%

As you can see, $SNPS appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~22% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% LESS in FCF per share ๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $SNPS is a good business

BALANCE SHEET๐Ÿ†—
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $2.59B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $14.32B

$SNPS has a good balance sheet & 5.38x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ†—
โ€ข2020: 11.8%
โ€ข2021: 12.9%
โ€ข2022: 18.7%
โ€ข2023: 19.3%
โ€ข2024: 14.0%
โ€ขLTM: 2.6%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ†—
โ€ข2020: 14.7%
โ€ข2021: 14.8%
โ€ข2022: 17.8%
โ€ข2023: 20.7%
โ€ข2024: 18.6%
โ€ขLTM: 6.5%

$SNPS had stronger return metrics, but they decreased in the LTM due to the Ansys acquisition (to be expected)

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2019: $3.36B
โ€ข2024: $6.13B
โ€ขCAGR: 12.77%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2019: $602.38M
โ€ข2024: $1.28B
โ€ขCAGR: 16.34%

*FCF revised down in 2025 to $954.74M, with 2026E at $2.04B

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2019: $4.56
โ€ข2024: $13.20
โ€ขCAGR: 23.68%

SHARE BUYBACKSโŒ
โ€ข2019 Shares Outstanding: 154.19M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 157.68M

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 81.1%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 17.2%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 18.1%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~22% MORE in EPS & ~9% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $SNPS has to grow earnings at a 15.42% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.42%) required growth rate:

2025E: $12.82 (-3% YoY) *FY Oct

2026E: $14.02 (9% YoY)
2027E: $17.10 (22% YoY)
2028E: $20.17 (18% YoY)

$SNPS had a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $SNPS ends 2028 with $20.17 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:

32x P/E: $645.44๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~17.6% CAGR

31x P/E: $625.27๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~16.4% CAGR

30x P/E: $605.10๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~15.2% CAGR

29x P/E: $584.93๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~14.0% CAGR

28x P/E: $564.76๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~12.7% CAGR

27x P/E: $544.59๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~11.4% CAGR

Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on a ~28x multiple, making $SNPS a great consideration today at $387๐Ÿ’ต

$SNPS will thrive as AI and tech advancements drive chip demand, boosting the need for its cutting-edge semiconductor design software that helps create faster, smarter chips, among other things

Of course recent downward revisions impose a level of skepticism over the short-term, however EDA (75% of revenue) continues to be a strong segment, growing +23% YoY in its latest Q3 report

I consider $SNPS a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $350๐Ÿ’ต, or ~27x NTM earnings (~10% below todays price)

Given todayโ€™s estimates, at $350๐Ÿ’ต I can reasonably expect ~13.7% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 26x multiple
___

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๏ฟฝ[...]
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $SNPS ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 30.84x โ€ข5-Year Mean: 37.80x โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 2.42% โ€ข5-Year Mean: 2.67% As you can see, $SNPS appears to be trading somewhere below fair valueโ€ฆ
๏ฟฝ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
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"A hyper-realistic, surreal transition. The shot begins on a detailed pencil sketch of a superhero on a piece of paper, which then comes to life, bursting from the page into a fully-realized, three-dimensional world.", "mood": "Epic, powerful, heroic, awe-inspiring, magical.", "style": "Cinematic realism, photorealistic CGI, 8K resolution, combining the aesthetics of comic book art and a blockbuster superhero film." }, "camera": { "type": "Static, Overhead Shot", "lens": "50mm Macro Lens", "aperture": "f/4.0", "position": "Starts directly overhead, looking down at a piece of drawing paper on a wooden artist's desk.", "movement": "No physical camera movement. The transition and animation create the sense of dynamic action." }, "environment": { "initial_location": "An artist's messy but organized drafting table.", "initial_details": "The paper is a high-quality, textured drawing paper. Surrounding the main drawing are various drafting pencils, erasers, and architectural rulers. The desk has a warm, wooden grain.", "final_location": "A war-torn, destroyed urban environment, seen only from the ground up as the character lands.", "final_details": "The ground is cracked asphalt littered with small chunks of concrete and rebar. The transition happens so quickly that the final environment is only glimpsed." }, "lighting": { "initial_lighting": { "type": "Soft, Diffused Studio Light", "position": "From the side.", "color_temperature": "5000K (Neutral white)", "intensity": "Evenly illuminates the drawing paper." }, "transition_lighting": { "type": "Magical, Emissive Light", "source": "Emanates from the drawing itself.", "color": "Bright, heroic blue and white.", "intensity": "Grows rapidly, overpowering the studio light, casting dynamic shadows from the pencils on the desk." }, "final_lighting": { "type": "Dramatic, Late-Afternoon Sun", "position": "Low in the sky, casting long shadows in the final environment." } }, "main_subject": { "form": "Captain America, as depicted in the provided image.", "sketch_version": "A highly-detailed, photorealistic pencil sketch with visible texturing, cross-hatching, and smudging. The background is an architectural blueprint of a city map.", "real_version": "A hyper-realistic 3D model with incredible detail. His suit has PBR materials showing the texture of the fabric, the scuffed leather of his boots and gloves, and the battle-worn, scratched surface of his vibranium shield." }, "animation": { "transition_effect": "A '2D to 3D' transformation.", "action_sequence": [ { "time": "0.0s - 2.0s", "action": "The camera holds on the static drawing. A faint, blue energy starts to glow from the lines of the sketch." }, { "time": "2.1s - 4.0s", "action": "The energy intensifies. The pencil lines begin to lift off the page as 3D particles. The character's arm and shield begin to materialize, pushing upwards from the paper's surface." }, { "time": "4.1s - 6.0s", "action": "In a burst of energy and shattering pencil particles, the fully-formed, realistic Captain America leaps out of the drawing. The paper below is left scorched and torn where he emerged." }, { "time": "6.1s - 8.0s", "action": "He lands powerfully on the 'real' ground of the destroyed city, shield raised. The camera angle is now at ground level, looking up at him heroically as dust and debris settle." } ] }, "audio_design": { "style": "Epic, powerful, and transitional.", "timeline": [ { "time": "0.0s - 2.0s", "sound": "The gentle, scratching sound of a pencil on paper, mixed with a faint, magical, humming sound that grows in intensity." }, { "time": "2.1s - 6.0s", "sound": "The humming crescendos into a powerful surge of energy, with crackling electrical sounds and the sound of shattering graphite." }, { "time": "6.1s", "sound": "A massive, impactful 'THOOM' as he lands, combined with the crunch of rubber under his boots."
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Kalshi just signed a deal with Statscore, although unclear which sports they will use that data for. The more complex the in-game/live markets, the more likely GENI/SRAD will be needed.
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