AkhenOsiris
$DKNG $FLUT $SRAD $GENI
Jefferies report casts some doubt on the prediction market opportunity.
Jefferies said the idea of a global TAM of $100 billion “greatly overstates the potential profitability.”
One of the biggest questions is the apples-to-oranges comparison of betting handle and trading volume, with Jefferies estimating that prediction volumes “would appear” to be between 50% and 95% lower than currently being reported.
“Jefferies estimates Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined handle in H125 was $1.5 billion vs. US OSB handle over the same period of $85.2 billion.”
“Yes, the opportunity (for an individual operator) is massive if the space is controlled by a handful of players, but if everyone and their brother is offering these contracts, with the same structure, sports contracts will be just another offering within the larger financial market field.
If FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, bet365, and Underdog can all offer prediction markets on sports, then it’s just another product in a crowded marketplace that is also competing against traditional sportsbooks, DFS, sweepstakes, and everything else. The advantages of being a prediction market evaporate, and it becomes a battle of UX, marketing budgets, and brand recognition.
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$DKNG $FLUT $SRAD $GENI
Jefferies report casts some doubt on the prediction market opportunity.
Jefferies said the idea of a global TAM of $100 billion “greatly overstates the potential profitability.”
One of the biggest questions is the apples-to-oranges comparison of betting handle and trading volume, with Jefferies estimating that prediction volumes “would appear” to be between 50% and 95% lower than currently being reported.
“Jefferies estimates Kalshi and Polymarket’s combined handle in H125 was $1.5 billion vs. US OSB handle over the same period of $85.2 billion.”
“Yes, the opportunity (for an individual operator) is massive if the space is controlled by a handful of players, but if everyone and their brother is offering these contracts, with the same structure, sports contracts will be just another offering within the larger financial market field.
If FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, bet365, and Underdog can all offer prediction markets on sports, then it’s just another product in a crowded marketplace that is also competing against traditional sportsbooks, DFS, sweepstakes, and everything else. The advantages of being a prediction market evaporate, and it becomes a battle of UX, marketing budgets, and brand recognition.
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Offshore
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ToffCap
Out with a new one!
We’re looking at a company trading at <5x20% with the potential to do it for a long time.
The company has quietly (but rapidly) become a European (e-)commerce infrastructure play.
- it has proven that its flywheel generates strong organic growth.
- it has delivered operating leverage, pushing margins upwards.
- it continues to acquire at 3-5x ev/ebitda, with plenty more to come.
- and it has managed its balance sheet such that leverage is falling, even while acquisitions continue.
On the stack.
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Out with a new one!
We’re looking at a company trading at <5x20% with the potential to do it for a long time.
The company has quietly (but rapidly) become a European (e-)commerce infrastructure play.
- it has proven that its flywheel generates strong organic growth.
- it has delivered operating leverage, pushing margins upwards.
- it continues to acquire at 3-5x ev/ebitda, with plenty more to come.
- and it has managed its balance sheet such that leverage is falling, even while acquisitions continue.
On the stack.
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Offshore
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Investing visuals
Top 12 widest moats in tech:
• Elite: $ASML, $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA
• Extremely wide: $AAPL, $GOOGL, $META, $TSLA
• Very wide: $PLTR, $TSLA, $NOW, $AXON https://t.co/oMyvOqTCLT
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Top 12 widest moats in tech:
• Elite: $ASML, $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA
• Extremely wide: $AAPL, $GOOGL, $META, $TSLA
• Very wide: $PLTR, $TSLA, $NOW, $AXON https://t.co/oMyvOqTCLT
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Offshore
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Simplifying Stocks, CPA
OH MY GOODNESS
Construction quits at GFC levels ⚠️
The FED needs to cut rates ASAP. This is not a 4.5% fed funds economy! https://t.co/ssl6pqsIfY
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OH MY GOODNESS
Construction quits at GFC levels ⚠️
The FED needs to cut rates ASAP. This is not a 4.5% fed funds economy! https://t.co/ssl6pqsIfY
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Offshore
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Yellowbrick Investing
$DALN up almost 300% since it was pitched in Middle Coast Investing's fund letter earlier this year.
A handful of others pitched it too and are up over 100% - @TiehackCapital @Sophoninvest @boujee_banker https://t.co/vQpS1LLJ02
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$DALN up almost 300% since it was pitched in Middle Coast Investing's fund letter earlier this year.
A handful of others pitched it too and are up over 100% - @TiehackCapital @Sophoninvest @boujee_banker https://t.co/vQpS1LLJ02
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Offshore
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Aadit Sheth
RT @aaditsh: This guy just dropped the most useful AI project template I’ve seen this year https://t.co/iprq1wD5rs
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RT @aaditsh: This guy just dropped the most useful AI project template I’ve seen this year https://t.co/iprq1wD5rs
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