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RT @wallstengine: Bill Ackman explains his investment research process: https://t.co/pm6b0tucCO
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RT @wallstengine: Bill Ackman explains his investment research process: https://t.co/pm6b0tucCO
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RT @wallstengine: Morgan Stanley says Tesla’s $TSLA drone potential could turn it into a defense stock. Analyst Adam Jonas sees drones and urban air mobility as a $1T market by 2040, $9T by 2050. If Tesla grabs a slice, it could add $1,000 per share.
h/t to @trader_53 https://t.co/l7IfFofgCE
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RT @wallstengine: Morgan Stanley says Tesla’s $TSLA drone potential could turn it into a defense stock. Analyst Adam Jonas sees drones and urban air mobility as a $1T market by 2040, $9T by 2050. If Tesla grabs a slice, it could add $1,000 per share.
h/t to @trader_53 https://t.co/l7IfFofgCE
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SPACEX TO BUILD ADVANCED CHIP PACKAGING FAB IN TEXAS
SpaceX is entering the FOPLP chip packaging space and is setting up its own facility in Texas, per DigiTimes. While the plant is under construction, STMicro $STM is handling packaging orders, with overflow going to Taiwan’s Innolux.
Sources say SpaceX plans to use massive 700mm x 700mm substrates — the largest in the industry — to meet growing demand from Starlink and other satellite systems.
Additionally, Elon Musk expects Starlink to hit $15.5B in revenue in 2025, and he’s betting on vertical integration to bring down chip costs and boost performance, similar to how Tesla built out its own TPAK tech.
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SPACEX TO BUILD ADVANCED CHIP PACKAGING FAB IN TEXAS
SpaceX is entering the FOPLP chip packaging space and is setting up its own facility in Texas, per DigiTimes. While the plant is under construction, STMicro $STM is handling packaging orders, with overflow going to Taiwan’s Innolux.
Sources say SpaceX plans to use massive 700mm x 700mm substrates — the largest in the industry — to meet growing demand from Starlink and other satellite systems.
Additionally, Elon Musk expects Starlink to hit $15.5B in revenue in 2025, and he’s betting on vertical integration to bring down chip costs and boost performance, similar to how Tesla built out its own TPAK tech.
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PROCTER & GAMBLE TO CUT 7,000 JOBS, TRIM BRAND LINEUP – WSJ
$PG plans to lay off around 7,000 non-manufacturing employees globally over the next two years — about 15% of its office workforce — as part of a company-wide reorg. The cuts aren't about cost savings, according to execs, but about reshaping roles and teams. The consumer goods giant also said it’ll scale back its brand portfolio and exit some categories as it adjusts to slower sales and tighter consumer spending.
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PROCTER & GAMBLE TO CUT 7,000 JOBS, TRIM BRAND LINEUP – WSJ
$PG plans to lay off around 7,000 non-manufacturing employees globally over the next two years — about 15% of its office workforce — as part of a company-wide reorg. The cuts aren't about cost savings, according to execs, but about reshaping roles and teams. The consumer goods giant also said it’ll scale back its brand portfolio and exit some categories as it adjusts to slower sales and tighter consumer spending.
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JAPAN TO PUSH RARE EARTHS DEAL IN TARIFF TALKS – REUTERS
Japan 🇯🇵 plans to propose closer cooperation on rare earth supply chains during upcoming trade talks with the U.S., per Nikkei. With China tightening exports, Japan’s looking to shore up alternatives. Meanwhile, Washington is signaling it may lower part of Trump’s paused 24% tariffs on Japanese goods — though a 10% base rate still applies. Japan’s top negotiator heads to D.C. today; auto tariffs remain a key sticking point.
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JAPAN TO PUSH RARE EARTHS DEAL IN TARIFF TALKS – REUTERS
Japan 🇯🇵 plans to propose closer cooperation on rare earth supply chains during upcoming trade talks with the U.S., per Nikkei. With China tightening exports, Japan’s looking to shore up alternatives. Meanwhile, Washington is signaling it may lower part of Trump’s paused 24% tariffs on Japanese goods — though a 10% base rate still applies. Japan’s top negotiator heads to D.C. today; auto tariffs remain a key sticking point.
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Jefferies Downgrades $MELI to Hold from Buy, Raises PT to $2,800 from $2,450
Analyst comments: "We raise our DCF-driven price target to $2,800 from $2,450, largely driven by higher levels of profitability and cash flow in 2029 and beyond. We step back to assess the total addressable markets in commerce, acquiring, credit, and advertising. We continue to view MercadoLibre as a high-quality long-term holding in the region, with multiple ongoing growth opportunities. However, with the shares up over 50% year-to-date and following strong relative performance in 2023, we downgrade to Hold."
Analyst: Alex Wright
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Jefferies Downgrades $MELI to Hold from Buy, Raises PT to $2,800 from $2,450
Analyst comments: "We raise our DCF-driven price target to $2,800 from $2,450, largely driven by higher levels of profitability and cash flow in 2029 and beyond. We step back to assess the total addressable markets in commerce, acquiring, credit, and advertising. We continue to view MercadoLibre as a high-quality long-term holding in the region, with multiple ongoing growth opportunities. However, with the shares up over 50% year-to-date and following strong relative performance in 2023, we downgrade to Hold."
Analyst: Alex Wright
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Japanese 🇯🇵 government bonds got a bit of a break after Thursday’s 30-year debt auction came in better than feared. The bid-to-cover ratio hit 2.92, down from the 3.07 prior month and well under the 12-month average, but still within expectations. Yields on the 30Y fell to 2.875%, down 7bps, and 40Y dropped as much as 8.5bps.
Note: Traders are now eyeing the BOJ’s June 16–17 meeting to see what happens with bond buying plans. Investors remain cautious ahead of Japan’s finance ministry talks with dealers on June 20.
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Japanese 🇯🇵 government bonds got a bit of a break after Thursday’s 30-year debt auction came in better than feared. The bid-to-cover ratio hit 2.92, down from the 3.07 prior month and well under the 12-month average, but still within expectations. Yields on the 30Y fell to 2.875%, down 7bps, and 40Y dropped as much as 8.5bps.
Note: Traders are now eyeing the BOJ’s June 16–17 meeting to see what happens with bond buying plans. Investors remain cautious ahead of Japan’s finance ministry talks with dealers on June 20.
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Mizuho Raises $MU PT to $130 from $124 - Outperform
Analyst comments: "Ahead of its earnings on June 25, we take a deeper look at Micron and the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market. We see: 1) industry HBM revenue growing at a 55% three-year CAGR (2024–2027E) driven by HBM4/4e ramps into 2026–2027, 2) Micron HBM revenue growing at a 90% three-year CAGR, gaining market share and reaching over 45% of Micron’s DRAM revenue, supporting top-line and gross margin upside, 3) Micron gaining HBM market share from ~10% last year to 20–25% in 2025–2026, with HBM3e 12Hi remaining a two-player race, and 4) NAND showing a strong roadmap with continued mix shift toward more 3XXL nodes. We maintain our Outperform rating, raise estimates, and increase our price target to $130 from $124. We are buyers into the June 25 earnings, given potential upside to HBM shipments in 2025–2026 and ASP/layer count strength driven by HBM4."
Analyst: Vijay Rakesh
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Mizuho Raises $MU PT to $130 from $124 - Outperform
Analyst comments: "Ahead of its earnings on June 25, we take a deeper look at Micron and the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market. We see: 1) industry HBM revenue growing at a 55% three-year CAGR (2024–2027E) driven by HBM4/4e ramps into 2026–2027, 2) Micron HBM revenue growing at a 90% three-year CAGR, gaining market share and reaching over 45% of Micron’s DRAM revenue, supporting top-line and gross margin upside, 3) Micron gaining HBM market share from ~10% last year to 20–25% in 2025–2026, with HBM3e 12Hi remaining a two-player race, and 4) NAND showing a strong roadmap with continued mix shift toward more 3XXL nodes. We maintain our Outperform rating, raise estimates, and increase our price target to $130 from $124. We are buyers into the June 25 earnings, given potential upside to HBM shipments in 2025–2026 and ASP/layer count strength driven by HBM4."
Analyst: Vijay Rakesh
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Mizuho Upgrades $V to Outperform from Neutral, Raises PT to $425 from $359
Analyst comments: "Upgrading to Outperform. With cash-to-card historically driving two-thirds of Visa’s volume growth, the length of the U.S. cash conversion runway is a key debate. Our in-depth category analysis shows that Visa’s subdued excess growth versus U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) post-COVID has largely been due to vertical mix shift, as less-card-based categories have outgrown more-card-based categories since the pandemic. Although this adverse trend has started to reverse, we see growing reason for optimism. We estimate true U.S. card penetration at approximately 75%, versus the 80–90% consensus, suggesting a longer remaining cash-to-card runway than previously expected—potentially another decade of solid domestic top-line growth.
Additionally, Visa’s performance in Canada and the Nordics shows above-PCE growth even in markets with card penetration exceeding 90%. We are raising our FY26/FY27 estimates on improved U.S. volume growth expectations. We now value Visa at 31x our FY26 estimate (versus 28x previously). Price target raised to $425 from $359."
Analyst: Dan Dolev
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Mizuho Upgrades $V to Outperform from Neutral, Raises PT to $425 from $359
Analyst comments: "Upgrading to Outperform. With cash-to-card historically driving two-thirds of Visa’s volume growth, the length of the U.S. cash conversion runway is a key debate. Our in-depth category analysis shows that Visa’s subdued excess growth versus U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) post-COVID has largely been due to vertical mix shift, as less-card-based categories have outgrown more-card-based categories since the pandemic. Although this adverse trend has started to reverse, we see growing reason for optimism. We estimate true U.S. card penetration at approximately 75%, versus the 80–90% consensus, suggesting a longer remaining cash-to-card runway than previously expected—potentially another decade of solid domestic top-line growth.
Additionally, Visa’s performance in Canada and the Nordics shows above-PCE growth even in markets with card penetration exceeding 90%. We are raising our FY26/FY27 estimates on improved U.S. volume growth expectations. We now value Visa at 31x our FY26 estimate (versus 28x previously). Price target raised to $425 from $359."
Analyst: Dan Dolev
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Capital Employed
RT @capitalemployed: There’s no shortage of cheap quality companies in Europe and Asia for small active investors to get busy researching.
Poland, UK, Italy, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore - they’re all there in plain sight being ignored by the big boys/passive parrots.
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RT @capitalemployed: There’s no shortage of cheap quality companies in Europe and Asia for small active investors to get busy researching.
Poland, UK, Italy, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore - they’re all there in plain sight being ignored by the big boys/passive parrots.
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Morgan Stanley Reiterates Overweight on $AAPL, PT $235
Analyst comments: "U.S. App Store grew 10% year-over-year in May, a 2-point acceleration from 8% growth in April, with revenue per download growing 5% year-over-year, a 3-point acceleration from April. Overall, the App Store is tracking 1.5 points ahead of our forecast, implying 40 basis points (or approximately $110 million) of June quarter Services revenue upside if the quarter ended today, all else equal.
That said, our May 2025 AlphaWise Survey shows 28% of U.S. iPhone users are 'Extremely Likely' to circumvent the App Store in-app purchase system, consistent with our 2022 survey. If these results materialize, we see 10% of App Store revenue, 3% of Services revenue, and 2% of Apple EPS 'at risk.'
Next events: WWDC (June 9), ongoing tracking of June quarter App Store performance (daily), and a pending decision from the 9th Circuit on whether to proceed with Apple’s injunction appeal (TBD)."
Analyst: Erik Woodring
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Morgan Stanley Reiterates Overweight on $AAPL, PT $235
Analyst comments: "U.S. App Store grew 10% year-over-year in May, a 2-point acceleration from 8% growth in April, with revenue per download growing 5% year-over-year, a 3-point acceleration from April. Overall, the App Store is tracking 1.5 points ahead of our forecast, implying 40 basis points (or approximately $110 million) of June quarter Services revenue upside if the quarter ended today, all else equal.
That said, our May 2025 AlphaWise Survey shows 28% of U.S. iPhone users are 'Extremely Likely' to circumvent the App Store in-app purchase system, consistent with our 2022 survey. If these results materialize, we see 10% of App Store revenue, 3% of Services revenue, and 2% of Apple EPS 'at risk.'
Next events: WWDC (June 9), ongoing tracking of June quarter App Store performance (daily), and a pending decision from the 9th Circuit on whether to proceed with Apple’s injunction appeal (TBD)."
Analyst: Erik Woodring
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BofA Reiterates Buy on $NVDA, PT $180; remains best positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI tide
Analyst comments: "We were pleased to host NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress and VP of Investor Relations Toshiya Hari for an investor dinner, as well as VP/GM of Hyperscale and HPC Computing Ian Buck for a keynote session in San Francisco. Overall, the tone was very positive regarding demand and continued customer interest across cloud and enterprise, now supported by a full-scale supply ramp.
Importantly, we believe NVIDIA addressed three key investor debates that have weighed on the stock over the past year: 1) Blackwell rack ramp and execution, 2) AI diffusion and sovereign demand, and 3) China AI shipments. We maintain our Buy rating and $180 price objective, viewing NVIDIA as a top sector pick. We believe the company remains best positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI tide, backed by a multi-year lead in performance (AI scaling), a strong pipeline, incumbency, scale, and developer support.
The current 30x next-twelve-month P/E is attractive versus the 5-year historical median of 39x, and the stock trades at a PEG ratio of less than 1.0x compared to a 2.4x median for the rest of the Magnificent Seven, excluding NVIDIA."
Analyst: Vivek Arya
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BofA Reiterates Buy on $NVDA, PT $180; remains best positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI tide
Analyst comments: "We were pleased to host NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress and VP of Investor Relations Toshiya Hari for an investor dinner, as well as VP/GM of Hyperscale and HPC Computing Ian Buck for a keynote session in San Francisco. Overall, the tone was very positive regarding demand and continued customer interest across cloud and enterprise, now supported by a full-scale supply ramp.
Importantly, we believe NVIDIA addressed three key investor debates that have weighed on the stock over the past year: 1) Blackwell rack ramp and execution, 2) AI diffusion and sovereign demand, and 3) China AI shipments. We maintain our Buy rating and $180 price objective, viewing NVIDIA as a top sector pick. We believe the company remains best positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI tide, backed by a multi-year lead in performance (AI scaling), a strong pipeline, incumbency, scale, and developer support.
The current 30x next-twelve-month P/E is attractive versus the 5-year historical median of 39x, and the stock trades at a PEG ratio of less than 1.0x compared to a 2.4x median for the rest of the Magnificent Seven, excluding NVIDIA."
Analyst: Vivek Arya
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Barclays on $AMZN (OW; PT $240): "The key takeaway: It shouldn't come as a major surprise that Project Kuiper is running behind, as the satellite launch delays were fairly well telegraphed and are already baked into our published numbers. This note provides detail on these changes and their impact.
We now expect 10 Kuiper launches in 2025—including one completed on April 28, one scheduled for late next week, and the remaining eight occurring in the second half of the year—down from our initial estimate of 12 (see our Kuiper Deep Dive). Kuiper is projected to cost Amazon around $2.5 billion in 2025, with quarterly costs skewing higher in the second half. We slightly increased our 2025 cost assumptions by approximately $70 million, reflecting higher satellite production costs, partially offset by lower launch costs."
Analyst: Ross Sandler
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Barclays on $AMZN (OW; PT $240): "The key takeaway: It shouldn't come as a major surprise that Project Kuiper is running behind, as the satellite launch delays were fairly well telegraphed and are already baked into our published numbers. This note provides detail on these changes and their impact.
We now expect 10 Kuiper launches in 2025—including one completed on April 28, one scheduled for late next week, and the remaining eight occurring in the second half of the year—down from our initial estimate of 12 (see our Kuiper Deep Dive). Kuiper is projected to cost Amazon around $2.5 billion in 2025, with quarterly costs skewing higher in the second half. We slightly increased our 2025 cost assumptions by approximately $70 million, reflecting higher satellite production costs, partially offset by lower launch costs."
Analyst: Ross Sandler
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Jefferies Downgrades $CHWY to Hold from Buy, Raises PT to $43 from $41
Analyst comments: "Chewy shares are up 41% this year and trade at 24x 2026 EBITDA—a valuation primed for a beat and raise. We think it's unlikely in Q1. The pet macro environment appears relatively stable, and Chewy is performing well. However, a CFO transition is underway, and current share levels already reflect the positives, including growth in sponsored ads and favorable web/app alternative data. We see limited upside to numbers beyond the high end of guidance at this point and downgrade to Hold on valuation. Price target raised to $43."
Analyst: Kaumil Gajrawala
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Jefferies Downgrades $CHWY to Hold from Buy, Raises PT to $43 from $41
Analyst comments: "Chewy shares are up 41% this year and trade at 24x 2026 EBITDA—a valuation primed for a beat and raise. We think it's unlikely in Q1. The pet macro environment appears relatively stable, and Chewy is performing well. However, a CFO transition is underway, and current share levels already reflect the positives, including growth in sponsored ads and favorable web/app alternative data. We see limited upside to numbers beyond the high end of guidance at this point and downgrade to Hold on valuation. Price target raised to $43."
Analyst: Kaumil Gajrawala
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