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Hidden Value Gems
Interesting facts:
✅ Switzerland has had the strongest currency over decades
✅ Yet manufacturing accounts for 18% of GDP, one of the highest share among developed nations
✅ Over half its exports are “high-tech” — more than double the US level
✅ Its current account has remained in surplus averaging 4% of GDP since 1980s
✅ It generates more than $100 in GDP per hour worked — that’s more productive than any of the other 20 largest economies.
US administration may consider other ways to support domestic manufacturing, not just weakening the dollar.
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Interesting facts:
✅ Switzerland has had the strongest currency over decades
✅ Yet manufacturing accounts for 18% of GDP, one of the highest share among developed nations
✅ Over half its exports are “high-tech” — more than double the US level
✅ Its current account has remained in surplus averaging 4% of GDP since 1980s
✅ It generates more than $100 in GDP per hour worked — that’s more productive than any of the other 20 largest economies.
US administration may consider other ways to support domestic manufacturing, not just weakening the dollar.
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Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 06/03/2025
08:55: US Redbook YoY
10:00: US JOLTS Job Openings
10:00: US Factory Orders MoM
10:00: SEC Chair Atkins Testifies (Tentative)
12:45: Fed's Goolsbee
13:00: Fed's Cook
15:30: Fed's Logan
Before Open 👇
05:30: $NIO
06:00: Donaldson Company $DCI
06:45: Ferguson $FERG
06:50: Dollar General $DG
06:50: Signet Jewelers $SIG
07:30: Ollie's Bargain Outlet $OLLI
After Hours 👇
04:00: HealthEquity $HQY
04:05: Hewlett Packard Enterprise $HPE
04:05: Asana $ASAN
04:05: Couchbase $BASE
04:05: Mama’s Creations $MAMA
04:05: Yext $YEXT
04:05: Sportsman's Warehouse $SPWH
04:10: CrowdStrike $CRWD
04:15: Guidewire Software $GWRE
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Today's Key Events (All EST) — 06/03/2025
08:55: US Redbook YoY
10:00: US JOLTS Job Openings
10:00: US Factory Orders MoM
10:00: SEC Chair Atkins Testifies (Tentative)
12:45: Fed's Goolsbee
13:00: Fed's Cook
15:30: Fed's Logan
Before Open 👇
05:30: $NIO
06:00: Donaldson Company $DCI
06:45: Ferguson $FERG
06:50: Dollar General $DG
06:50: Signet Jewelers $SIG
07:30: Ollie's Bargain Outlet $OLLI
After Hours 👇
04:00: HealthEquity $HQY
04:05: Hewlett Packard Enterprise $HPE
04:05: Asana $ASAN
04:05: Couchbase $BASE
04:05: Mama’s Creations $MAMA
04:05: Yext $YEXT
04:05: Sportsman's Warehouse $SPWH
04:10: CrowdStrike $CRWD
04:15: Guidewire Software $GWRE
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Wall St Engine
Microsoft $MSFT has cut another 300+ jobs, just weeks after laying off 6,000 staff. The company says the move is part of “organizational changes” to stay competitive in a shifting market. https://t.co/QzLE1KWtBY
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Microsoft $MSFT has cut another 300+ jobs, just weeks after laying off 6,000 staff. The company says the move is part of “organizational changes” to stay competitive in a shifting market. https://t.co/QzLE1KWtBY
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Wall St Engine
Thames Water just lost its preferred bidder. KKR has pulled out of the £4B rescue deal, a major setback as the UK utility faces £20B in debt. With KKR out, senior creditors will now push forward with their own plan. Thames warned that if equity talks fail, it could still end up in special administration.
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Thames Water just lost its preferred bidder. KKR has pulled out of the £4B rescue deal, a major setback as the UK utility faces £20B in debt. With KKR out, senior creditors will now push forward with their own plan. Thames warned that if equity talks fail, it could still end up in special administration.
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Wall St Engine
$TSM CEO Wei says demand for AI chips remains strong. TSMC expects record revenue and earnings in 2025, driven by AI and HPC chips: “AI will be something you absolutely can’t live without in the future.” The outlook for the next five to ten years is very good. https://t.co/VbzYh7MeWm
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$TSM CEO Wei says demand for AI chips remains strong. TSMC expects record revenue and earnings in 2025, driven by AI and HPC chips: “AI will be something you absolutely can’t live without in the future.” The outlook for the next five to ten years is very good. https://t.co/VbzYh7MeWm
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Wall St Engine
TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said in a conversation with Trump that completing the company’s full $100B U.S. investment in 5 years would be “very, very difficult” due to skilled labor and construction hurdles in Arizona. Trump replied: “Mr. Wei, do your best, that’s enough” https://t.co/Pp2OKaPYqD
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TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said in a conversation with Trump that completing the company’s full $100B U.S. investment in 5 years would be “very, very difficult” due to skilled labor and construction hurdles in Arizona. Trump replied: “Mr. Wei, do your best, that’s enough” https://t.co/Pp2OKaPYqD
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Wall St Engine
Barclays Downgrades $ASML to Equalweight from Overweight, Lowers PT to €650 from €770
Analyst comments: "Given lack of positive catalysts and downside risk to 2026 consensus along with muted growth prospects, we see limited chance of a rerating near term. The biggest positive surprises would be Samsung or Intel restarting material spending, but we see this as unlikely before 2027 at the earliest if at all. We also see limited content growth nearer term and customer efficiency is also minimising tool requirements. Delays to high NA adoption could also be unhelpful for ASML's growth perception. We think that will be unfair as we model a revenue CAGR of 11% between 2026-2030, meaning we remain positive on the long-term outlook, but think growth could just be volatile in the coming years."
Analyst: Simon Coles
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Barclays Downgrades $ASML to Equalweight from Overweight, Lowers PT to €650 from €770
Analyst comments: "Given lack of positive catalysts and downside risk to 2026 consensus along with muted growth prospects, we see limited chance of a rerating near term. The biggest positive surprises would be Samsung or Intel restarting material spending, but we see this as unlikely before 2027 at the earliest if at all. We also see limited content growth nearer term and customer efficiency is also minimising tool requirements. Delays to high NA adoption could also be unhelpful for ASML's growth perception. We think that will be unfair as we model a revenue CAGR of 11% between 2026-2030, meaning we remain positive on the long-term outlook, but think growth could just be volatile in the coming years."
Analyst: Simon Coles
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Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Downgrades $BMBL to Underweight from Neutral, PT $5
Analyst comments: "Bumble shares have traded up over 50% since Liberation Day, and are now more than 10% above our PT. The move higher largely reflects significant profit upgrades at 1Q earnings due to marketing / opex cuts, which more than offset weaker revenue trends. We struggle to justify raising our price target given our expectation for revenue and payer declines to accelerate, regardless of the macro environment. Intra-qtr US download trends took another step down (see slide 9), and we see downside risk to consensus revenue and Bumble app net add estimates in 2H – we are below the Street. We expect margins to moderate in 2H as brand marketing resumes (i.e., another big upgrade seems unlikely). Online dating category remains challenged, with Gen Z product/market fit issues. Tinder is further along in its turnaround effort, but revenue is still in decline with MTCH shares near all-time lows. BMBL valuation is undemanding at ~7x 2025 FCF, but our rating system is relative to our coverage and there are cheaper stocks with stronger growth profiles."
Analyst: Cory Carpenter
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JPMorgan Downgrades $BMBL to Underweight from Neutral, PT $5
Analyst comments: "Bumble shares have traded up over 50% since Liberation Day, and are now more than 10% above our PT. The move higher largely reflects significant profit upgrades at 1Q earnings due to marketing / opex cuts, which more than offset weaker revenue trends. We struggle to justify raising our price target given our expectation for revenue and payer declines to accelerate, regardless of the macro environment. Intra-qtr US download trends took another step down (see slide 9), and we see downside risk to consensus revenue and Bumble app net add estimates in 2H – we are below the Street. We expect margins to moderate in 2H as brand marketing resumes (i.e., another big upgrade seems unlikely). Online dating category remains challenged, with Gen Z product/market fit issues. Tinder is further along in its turnaround effort, but revenue is still in decline with MTCH shares near all-time lows. BMBL valuation is undemanding at ~7x 2025 FCF, but our rating system is relative to our coverage and there are cheaper stocks with stronger growth profiles."
Analyst: Cory Carpenter
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Wall St Engine
Jefferies Raises $NFLX PT to $1,400 from $1,200 - Buy
Analyst comments: "We continue to see a favorable catalyst path for NFLX over the short, medium, and long-term. Firstly, the combination of US price increases and one of the best 2H release slates in recent memory (e.g. Squid Game, Stranger Things Final Season, Wednesday, NFL Games) position the company well to achieve at least the high end of the FY25 rev guide. In FY26, we are below the street on UCAN net adds (2.2M vs. cons. 3.2M). However, we believe the combination of ad tier monetization improving, and the full year benefit of price hikes should drive ARM growth. Over the next 5yrs, we believe NFLX should sustain 20%+ EPS and FCF growth with high margin ad rev, expansion into live sports, and price hikes the key drivers."
Analyst: James Heaney
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Jefferies Raises $NFLX PT to $1,400 from $1,200 - Buy
Analyst comments: "We continue to see a favorable catalyst path for NFLX over the short, medium, and long-term. Firstly, the combination of US price increases and one of the best 2H release slates in recent memory (e.g. Squid Game, Stranger Things Final Season, Wednesday, NFL Games) position the company well to achieve at least the high end of the FY25 rev guide. In FY26, we are below the street on UCAN net adds (2.2M vs. cons. 3.2M). However, we believe the combination of ad tier monetization improving, and the full year benefit of price hikes should drive ARM growth. Over the next 5yrs, we believe NFLX should sustain 20%+ EPS and FCF growth with high margin ad rev, expansion into live sports, and price hikes the key drivers."
Analyst: James Heaney
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Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Upgrades $PINS to Overweight from Neutral, Raises PT to $40 from $35
Analyst comments: "While Pinterest shares have outperformed YTD at +10% vs. the SPX +1%, they remain down -18% from the February market highs compared to the SPX more fully recovered at -3%. We believe PINS has made solid progress across its 2023 Investor Day priorities to: 1) grow users & deepen engagement; 2) improve monetization/ARPU (mid-high teens revenue CAGR); & 3) drive profitable growth (30-34% adj. EBITDA margin target). Importantly, we believe PINS is leveraging its full funnel ad approach and automation/AI capabilities — including Performance+ — to capture a greater share of ad spending among the next tranche of advertisers ($1B-$30B in sales), while some of the larger & more sophisticated advertisers already allocate 5-10% of their budgets to PINS."
Analyst: Doug Anmuth
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JPMorgan Upgrades $PINS to Overweight from Neutral, Raises PT to $40 from $35
Analyst comments: "While Pinterest shares have outperformed YTD at +10% vs. the SPX +1%, they remain down -18% from the February market highs compared to the SPX more fully recovered at -3%. We believe PINS has made solid progress across its 2023 Investor Day priorities to: 1) grow users & deepen engagement; 2) improve monetization/ARPU (mid-high teens revenue CAGR); & 3) drive profitable growth (30-34% adj. EBITDA margin target). Importantly, we believe PINS is leveraging its full funnel ad approach and automation/AI capabilities — including Performance+ — to capture a greater share of ad spending among the next tranche of advertisers ($1B-$30B in sales), while some of the larger & more sophisticated advertisers already allocate 5-10% of their budgets to PINS."
Analyst: Doug Anmuth
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