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Institutional exposure to tech remains light, with $7T still parked in cash funds. Additionally, CTAs and vol control funds are neutral and have plenty of room to add risk https://t.co/pOdaY9YLNx
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Institutional exposure to tech remains light, with $7T still parked in cash funds. Additionally, CTAs and vol control funds are neutral and have plenty of room to add risk https://t.co/pOdaY9YLNx
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Wall St Engine
UBS REITERATES NEUTRAL RATING ON $RIVN, PT $13
Analyst comments: "In this report, we focus on Rivian-specific trends from our 2025 UBS Evidence Lab Global EV survey results. While an increasing number of U.S. consumers are aware of the Rivian brand, overall awareness remains low (13% vs. 10% last year). Further, only ~5% of BEV owners/buyers indicated they would consider purchasing a Rivian (up from 4.5% last year). For reference, we estimate Rivian's 2024 U.S. BEV share (excluding vans) was ~3%. The survey indicates that consumers still want more EV choices and alternatives, which may be positive for Rivian. In fact, of those who would consider buying a Tesla, ~30% are more likely to consider purchasing a Rivian (up from 26% last year).
However, overall U.S. interest in EVs has declined, and given potential pushout of EPA requirements and repeal of the California waiver, the EV inflection may be further out than expected. The removal of the California waiver may also limit Rivian's ability to generate and sell ZEV credits. Slower EV growth is likely exacerbated by a lack of affordable options—only ~35% of respondents believed EVs are affordable vs. internal combustion engine vehicles. Rivian's R1S SUV starts at $75,900 while the R1T pickup starts at $69,900. The average vehicle price in the U.S. is currently $47,900, while the average BEV (including tax credits) is $57,400.
The potential removal of consumer clean vehicle tax credits (CVC), including the 'leasing loophole,' could further limit EV adoption. In 2024, we estimate that ~59% of Rivian R1s were leased. While not all demand would be destroyed if CVCs are removed, we believe it would still be a headwind. These are key reasons why the R2 model launch is so critical to the equity story. R2 remains on track for 2026 with a starting price of ~$45,000.
Near-term, especially if U.S. policies move away from an EV focus, continued cost reductions on the R1 and increased manufacturing efficiencies are key. We remain Neutral rated on Rivian given a likely tougher near-term EV environment, but we do see potential for a positive longer-term outlook, particularly as we get closer to the R2 launch and gain more clarity on the potential ramp."
Analyst: Joseph Spak
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UBS REITERATES NEUTRAL RATING ON $RIVN, PT $13
Analyst comments: "In this report, we focus on Rivian-specific trends from our 2025 UBS Evidence Lab Global EV survey results. While an increasing number of U.S. consumers are aware of the Rivian brand, overall awareness remains low (13% vs. 10% last year). Further, only ~5% of BEV owners/buyers indicated they would consider purchasing a Rivian (up from 4.5% last year). For reference, we estimate Rivian's 2024 U.S. BEV share (excluding vans) was ~3%. The survey indicates that consumers still want more EV choices and alternatives, which may be positive for Rivian. In fact, of those who would consider buying a Tesla, ~30% are more likely to consider purchasing a Rivian (up from 26% last year).
However, overall U.S. interest in EVs has declined, and given potential pushout of EPA requirements and repeal of the California waiver, the EV inflection may be further out than expected. The removal of the California waiver may also limit Rivian's ability to generate and sell ZEV credits. Slower EV growth is likely exacerbated by a lack of affordable options—only ~35% of respondents believed EVs are affordable vs. internal combustion engine vehicles. Rivian's R1S SUV starts at $75,900 while the R1T pickup starts at $69,900. The average vehicle price in the U.S. is currently $47,900, while the average BEV (including tax credits) is $57,400.
The potential removal of consumer clean vehicle tax credits (CVC), including the 'leasing loophole,' could further limit EV adoption. In 2024, we estimate that ~59% of Rivian R1s were leased. While not all demand would be destroyed if CVCs are removed, we believe it would still be a headwind. These are key reasons why the R2 model launch is so critical to the equity story. R2 remains on track for 2026 with a starting price of ~$45,000.
Near-term, especially if U.S. policies move away from an EV focus, continued cost reductions on the R1 and increased manufacturing efficiencies are key. We remain Neutral rated on Rivian given a likely tougher near-term EV environment, but we do see potential for a positive longer-term outlook, particularly as we get closer to the R2 launch and gain more clarity on the potential ramp."
Analyst: Joseph Spak
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Wall St Engine
UBS Reiterates Sell Rating on $TSLA, Maintains PT at $190
Analyst comments: "Survey shows declining interest in EVs and the Tesla brand around the world. In this report, we focus on Tesla-specific trends from the 9th wave of the UBS Evidence Lab Global EV Adoption Outlook Consumer Survey. Overall, the theme of this survey is declining Tesla interest in the three major regions of the world: the U.S., China, and Europe, though the reasons vary by region. In the U.S., we see Tesla saturation (~48% U.S. BEV share), a limited vehicle lineup, and affordability as concerns. In China, there is intense competition, and Tesla is no longer seen as the technology leader. In Europe, we believe there may have been brand damage from Elon Musk's political involvement.
Overall, we remain cautious on Tesla stock. While we understand the enthusiasm over robo-taxis and humanoid robots, the automotive business faces mounting challenges and a source of earnings and cash flow may be at risk with the potential removal of the California waiver. Musk has indicated the value of Tesla lies in autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. This may be true, but given the deteriorating outlook for the auto business, the implied valuation assigned to these ventures already appears quite robust."
Analyst: Joseph Spak
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UBS Reiterates Sell Rating on $TSLA, Maintains PT at $190
Analyst comments: "Survey shows declining interest in EVs and the Tesla brand around the world. In this report, we focus on Tesla-specific trends from the 9th wave of the UBS Evidence Lab Global EV Adoption Outlook Consumer Survey. Overall, the theme of this survey is declining Tesla interest in the three major regions of the world: the U.S., China, and Europe, though the reasons vary by region. In the U.S., we see Tesla saturation (~48% U.S. BEV share), a limited vehicle lineup, and affordability as concerns. In China, there is intense competition, and Tesla is no longer seen as the technology leader. In Europe, we believe there may have been brand damage from Elon Musk's political involvement.
Overall, we remain cautious on Tesla stock. While we understand the enthusiasm over robo-taxis and humanoid robots, the automotive business faces mounting challenges and a source of earnings and cash flow may be at risk with the potential removal of the California waiver. Musk has indicated the value of Tesla lies in autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. This may be true, but given the deteriorating outlook for the auto business, the implied valuation assigned to these ventures already appears quite robust."
Analyst: Joseph Spak
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Wall St Engine
JPMORGAN: 'REITERATING THE TACTICAL BULLISH VIEW'
"The $SPX fell 2.6% last week, trimming the MTD gain to 4.2% and pushing the YTD return back into negative territory, -1.3%. On the week, SPX outperformed, SPW and RTY while trailing NDX; the US underperformed most major International DM markets and well as the EM index as the dollar (DXY) fell another 2%. Headwinds in the US were created by bond volatility surrounding the US fiscal situation in an otherwise quiet macro data week. While the 10Y yield only rose 3.4bps on the week, it traded in a 20bp range as the MOVE index increased 4.4%. With the SPX less than 6% from ATHs, is the next 300 points up or down? We think higher; we had flagged pullback risk and believe that we experienced that last week. Key part of the tactical bullish hypothesis remains (i) stable macro data; (ii) positive earnings; and (iii) a further de-escalation of the trade war. NVDA earnings loom large as a catalyst with US/EU escalated and de-escalated over the course of the weekend."
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JPMORGAN: 'REITERATING THE TACTICAL BULLISH VIEW'
"The $SPX fell 2.6% last week, trimming the MTD gain to 4.2% and pushing the YTD return back into negative territory, -1.3%. On the week, SPX outperformed, SPW and RTY while trailing NDX; the US underperformed most major International DM markets and well as the EM index as the dollar (DXY) fell another 2%. Headwinds in the US were created by bond volatility surrounding the US fiscal situation in an otherwise quiet macro data week. While the 10Y yield only rose 3.4bps on the week, it traded in a 20bp range as the MOVE index increased 4.4%. With the SPX less than 6% from ATHs, is the next 300 points up or down? We think higher; we had flagged pullback risk and believe that we experienced that last week. Key part of the tactical bullish hypothesis remains (i) stable macro data; (ii) positive earnings; and (iii) a further de-escalation of the trade war. NVDA earnings loom large as a catalyst with US/EU escalated and de-escalated over the course of the weekend."
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Wall St Engine
WeRide $WRD is scaling into Saudi Arabia, launching Robotaxi trials on Uber and deploying Robobuses and Robosweepers across Riyadh and AlUla. Backed by Vision 2030, the move supports Saudi’s smart city push. Full rollout expected by late 2025, following similar launches in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
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WeRide $WRD is scaling into Saudi Arabia, launching Robotaxi trials on Uber and deploying Robobuses and Robosweepers across Riyadh and AlUla. Backed by Vision 2030, the move supports Saudi’s smart city push. Full rollout expected by late 2025, following similar launches in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
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Wall St Engine
Jefferies Upgrades $LUV to Hold from Underperform, Raises PT to $33 from $24
Analyst comments: "We met with CEO & Vice Chair Bob Jordan and CFO Tom Doxey on our Dallas Bus Tour. Key takeaways: (1) $1.8 billion of initiatives to drive EBIT—$1 billion from revenue management (yield, service cuts, distribution), $370 million in cost reductions, and $400 million from bags, basic fares, and loyalty programs; (2) 26% ELR seats maximizes revenue per square foot and maintains scarcity; (3) two-thirds of managers beat on Q1 costs; (4) unlocking trapped earnings in the order book with maintenance certainty via long-term service agreements; and (5) continued evaluation of product and network. We upgrade to Hold on the trajectory of these initiatives."
Analyst: Julian Dumoulin-Smith
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Jefferies Upgrades $LUV to Hold from Underperform, Raises PT to $33 from $24
Analyst comments: "We met with CEO & Vice Chair Bob Jordan and CFO Tom Doxey on our Dallas Bus Tour. Key takeaways: (1) $1.8 billion of initiatives to drive EBIT—$1 billion from revenue management (yield, service cuts, distribution), $370 million in cost reductions, and $400 million from bags, basic fares, and loyalty programs; (2) 26% ELR seats maximizes revenue per square foot and maintains scarcity; (3) two-thirds of managers beat on Q1 costs; (4) unlocking trapped earnings in the order book with maintenance certainty via long-term service agreements; and (5) continued evaluation of product and network. We upgrade to Hold on the trajectory of these initiatives."
Analyst: Julian Dumoulin-Smith
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Wall St Engine
DA Davidson Upgrades $BRBR to Buy from Neutral, Sets PT at $85; "screens as a potential takeout target"
Analyst comments: "In the wake of its 21% selloff post 2Q25 results on May 6, we upgrade BRBR to Buy and insert it as our best idea in Food. Near term, we don't think retailer inventory reductions portend a bigger headwind, supported by our analysis herein which suggests: (1) Premier Protein is punching above its weight on shelf; (2) more broadly, allocation for protein shakes—and the performance subsegment in particular—should continue to grow. Long term, secular tailwinds and BRBR levers point to sustained above-algorithm growth into the foreseeable future. On weakness, BRBR also screens as a potential takeout target."
Analyst: Brian Holland
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DA Davidson Upgrades $BRBR to Buy from Neutral, Sets PT at $85; "screens as a potential takeout target"
Analyst comments: "In the wake of its 21% selloff post 2Q25 results on May 6, we upgrade BRBR to Buy and insert it as our best idea in Food. Near term, we don't think retailer inventory reductions portend a bigger headwind, supported by our analysis herein which suggests: (1) Premier Protein is punching above its weight on shelf; (2) more broadly, allocation for protein shakes—and the performance subsegment in particular—should continue to grow. Long term, secular tailwinds and BRBR levers point to sustained above-algorithm growth into the foreseeable future. On weakness, BRBR also screens as a potential takeout target."
Analyst: Brian Holland
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Wall St Engine
$PDD Holdings Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: RMB95.67B (Est. RMB102.98B) 🔴; +10% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: RMB11.41 (Est. RMB19.44) 🔴; -45% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Net Income: RMB16.92B; -45% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Profit: RMB18.26B; -36% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 16.8% (vs. 29.9% YoY)
Segment Revenue Breakdown:
🔹 Online Marketing Services & Others: RMB48.72B; +15% YoY
🔹 Transaction Services: RMB46.95B; +6% YoY
Cost & Expense Trends:
🔹 Cost of Revenue: RMB40.95B; +25% YoY
🔹 Total Operating Expenses: RMB38.64B; +37% YoY
↳ Sales & Marketing: RMB33.40B; +43% YoY
↳ R&D: RMB3.58B; +23% YoY
↳ G&A: RMB1.66B; -9% YoY
Strategic Investments:
🔸 Management significantly ramped up ecosystem investments to support merchants and adapt to shifting trade dynamics.
🔸 Increased promotional and marketing spend to drive demand across both Pinduoduo and Temu platforms.
Macro & Platform Commentary:
🔸 Pinduoduo impacted by weak domestic consumption in China despite stimulus and price discounts.
🔸 Temu’s growth outlook clouded by shifting global trade policy—particularly U.S. tariff policy under the de minimis rule.
🔸 Management highlighted “substantial ecosystem investments” to aid long-term platform resilience despite short-term profitability drag.
Cash Position:
🔹 Net Cash from Operations: RMB15.52B (US$2.14B)
🔹 Cash & Short-Term Investments: RMB364.5B (US$50.2B)
Executive Commentary:
Chairman Lei Chen:
🔸 “We made substantial investments this quarter to support merchants amid rapid change—trading short-term profitability for long-term platform health.”
Co-CEO Jiazhen Zhao:
🔸 “Building a stronger merchant ecosystem is vital in delivering great consumer experience. These ecosystem investments are essential during uncertain times.”
VP of Finance Jun Liu:
🔸 “Growth is expected to slow as our business matures and macro challenges intensify. Results will reflect sustained ecosystem investments.”
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$PDD Holdings Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: RMB95.67B (Est. RMB102.98B) 🔴; +10% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: RMB11.41 (Est. RMB19.44) 🔴; -45% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Net Income: RMB16.92B; -45% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Profit: RMB18.26B; -36% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 16.8% (vs. 29.9% YoY)
Segment Revenue Breakdown:
🔹 Online Marketing Services & Others: RMB48.72B; +15% YoY
🔹 Transaction Services: RMB46.95B; +6% YoY
Cost & Expense Trends:
🔹 Cost of Revenue: RMB40.95B; +25% YoY
🔹 Total Operating Expenses: RMB38.64B; +37% YoY
↳ Sales & Marketing: RMB33.40B; +43% YoY
↳ R&D: RMB3.58B; +23% YoY
↳ G&A: RMB1.66B; -9% YoY
Strategic Investments:
🔸 Management significantly ramped up ecosystem investments to support merchants and adapt to shifting trade dynamics.
🔸 Increased promotional and marketing spend to drive demand across both Pinduoduo and Temu platforms.
Macro & Platform Commentary:
🔸 Pinduoduo impacted by weak domestic consumption in China despite stimulus and price discounts.
🔸 Temu’s growth outlook clouded by shifting global trade policy—particularly U.S. tariff policy under the de minimis rule.
🔸 Management highlighted “substantial ecosystem investments” to aid long-term platform resilience despite short-term profitability drag.
Cash Position:
🔹 Net Cash from Operations: RMB15.52B (US$2.14B)
🔹 Cash & Short-Term Investments: RMB364.5B (US$50.2B)
Executive Commentary:
Chairman Lei Chen:
🔸 “We made substantial investments this quarter to support merchants amid rapid change—trading short-term profitability for long-term platform health.”
Co-CEO Jiazhen Zhao:
🔸 “Building a stronger merchant ecosystem is vital in delivering great consumer experience. These ecosystem investments are essential during uncertain times.”
VP of Finance Jun Liu:
🔸 “Growth is expected to slow as our business matures and macro challenges intensify. Results will reflect sustained ecosystem investments.”
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Wall St Engine
Morgan Stanley Reiterates Overweight Rating on $AAPL, Maintains PT at $235; Is a 25% tariff enough to incentivize Apple to move iPhone production to the US?
Analyst comments: "Last Friday, President Trump - via his social media platform - threatened a 25% tariff on smartphones, including the iPhone, imported into the US after the end of June.
The post was seemingly a response to recent reports of Apple's contract manufacturing partners expanding component production and assembly facilities in India as Apple shifts US-bound iPhone production from China to India.
While questions of legality remain (and are discussed below), big picture, our view remains unchanged that a 25% import tariff is not enough to incentivize Apple to shift production of US-bound iPhones to the United States - the time to market would be too long, and the costs associated with building an iPhone in the US would be too high relative to the incremental cost burden of a 25% tariff.
Of course, Apple's defiance to this directive: (1) likely means CEO Tim Cook's status with the current administration deteriorates from here; and (2) risks further tariff escalation (is a 50% tariff enough to shift production to the US?) - adding another brick to the wall of worry Apple investors need to climb - though recent history suggests that any form of negotiation, potentially including an incremental commitment to the $500B Apple has committed to investing in the US, could be a way to neutralize Friday's threat."
Analyst: Erik Woodring
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Morgan Stanley Reiterates Overweight Rating on $AAPL, Maintains PT at $235; Is a 25% tariff enough to incentivize Apple to move iPhone production to the US?
Analyst comments: "Last Friday, President Trump - via his social media platform - threatened a 25% tariff on smartphones, including the iPhone, imported into the US after the end of June.
The post was seemingly a response to recent reports of Apple's contract manufacturing partners expanding component production and assembly facilities in India as Apple shifts US-bound iPhone production from China to India.
While questions of legality remain (and are discussed below), big picture, our view remains unchanged that a 25% import tariff is not enough to incentivize Apple to shift production of US-bound iPhones to the United States - the time to market would be too long, and the costs associated with building an iPhone in the US would be too high relative to the incremental cost burden of a 25% tariff.
Of course, Apple's defiance to this directive: (1) likely means CEO Tim Cook's status with the current administration deteriorates from here; and (2) risks further tariff escalation (is a 50% tariff enough to shift production to the US?) - adding another brick to the wall of worry Apple investors need to climb - though recent history suggests that any form of negotiation, potentially including an incremental commitment to the $500B Apple has committed to investing in the US, could be a way to neutralize Friday's threat."
Analyst: Erik Woodring
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JPMORGAN: 'INTERNATIONAL MARKETS SHOULD CONTINUE TRADING INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLY THIS YEAR'
"Over the following months, our view is that bond yields could move up for the wrong reasons, due to tariff-driven inflation pickup and rising fiscal concerns, while at the same time activity sees softening given the payback for frontloading of orders. We are not advocates of decoupling, but one should be using this period for rotation; our broader Strategy view remains that International markets should continue trading increasingly more favorably this year. Within Europe, the performance has been very selective so far, where winners were Defense, Financials, Utilis, Telcos, Industrials and Construction, but many areas failed to participate, including a range of cyclical sectors, such as Autos, Luxury, Mining, Energy, Chemicals and Semiconductors.'
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JPMORGAN: 'INTERNATIONAL MARKETS SHOULD CONTINUE TRADING INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLY THIS YEAR'
"Over the following months, our view is that bond yields could move up for the wrong reasons, due to tariff-driven inflation pickup and rising fiscal concerns, while at the same time activity sees softening given the payback for frontloading of orders. We are not advocates of decoupling, but one should be using this period for rotation; our broader Strategy view remains that International markets should continue trading increasingly more favorably this year. Within Europe, the performance has been very selective so far, where winners were Defense, Financials, Utilis, Telcos, Industrials and Construction, but many areas failed to participate, including a range of cyclical sectors, such as Autos, Luxury, Mining, Energy, Chemicals and Semiconductors.'
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In a global first, the UAE will give every resident free access to ChatGPT Plus as part of a major partnership with OpenAI. The deal includes building Stargate UAE, a 1GW AI data center in Abu Dhabi, and is part of OpenAI’s new “OpenAI for Countries” push to help nations build their own AI stack.
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In a global first, the UAE will give every resident free access to ChatGPT Plus as part of a major partnership with OpenAI. The deal includes building Stargate UAE, a 1GW AI data center in Abu Dhabi, and is part of OpenAI’s new “OpenAI for Countries” push to help nations build their own AI stack.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 High-Quality Stocks with Double-Digit EPS CAGR Estimates for the Next 3 Years 💸
💵 Visa $V 13%
💰 Intuit $INTU 13%
🖱️ Google $GOOG 12%
📦 Amazon $AMZN 19%
💳 Mastercard $MA 16%
☁️ Microsoft $MSFT 15%
📊 Salesforce $CRM 13%
📈 S&P Global $SPGI 11%
🤝 MercadoLibre $MELI 35%
☀️ ASML Holding $ASML 19%
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10 High-Quality Stocks with Double-Digit EPS CAGR Estimates for the Next 3 Years 💸
💵 Visa $V 13%
💰 Intuit $INTU 13%
🖱️ Google $GOOG 12%
📦 Amazon $AMZN 19%
💳 Mastercard $MA 16%
☁️ Microsoft $MSFT 15%
📊 Salesforce $CRM 13%
📈 S&P Global $SPGI 11%
🤝 MercadoLibre $MELI 35%
☀️ ASML Holding $ASML 19%
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