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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: $INTU is proof that ‘expensive stocks’ can be a bargain in disguise 👀
10-Years ago $INTU traded for 35.72x & today it trades for 31.86x NTM EPS 💵
Meanwhile, the company delivered a 22.3% 10-year CAGR, translating to a remarkable 637% total return 📈
This is why the price you pay (valuation) for a company isn’t necessarily everything 💭
What primarily matters is choosing the right companies to invest in because even if you pay a premium for a company with strong growth potential, it can end up looking like a bargain years later if the company delivers strong & consistent earnings growth 💸
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RT @DimitryNakhla: $INTU is proof that ‘expensive stocks’ can be a bargain in disguise 👀
10-Years ago $INTU traded for 35.72x & today it trades for 31.86x NTM EPS 💵
Meanwhile, the company delivered a 22.3% 10-year CAGR, translating to a remarkable 637% total return 📈
This is why the price you pay (valuation) for a company isn’t necessarily everything 💭
What primarily matters is choosing the right companies to invest in because even if you pay a premium for a company with strong growth potential, it can end up looking like a bargain years later if the company delivers strong & consistent earnings growth 💸
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $CRM 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 25.38x
•3-Year Mean: 28.15x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.93%
•3-Year Mean: 4.39%
As you can see, $CRM appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share & ~12% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $CRM is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $14.03B
•Long-Term Debt: $8.43B
$CRM has an excellent balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 43x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗
•2021: 0.9%
•2022: 0.8%
•2023: 2.5%
•2024: 8.2%
•2025: 10.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2021: 10.8%
•2022: 2.9%
•2023: 0.4%
•2024: 7.0%
•2025: 10.3%
$CRM return metrics are ok, although more recently trending in the right direction
REVENUES✅
•2020: $17.10B
•2025: $37.90B
•CAGR: 17.25%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $3.69B
•2025: $12.43B
•CAGR: 27.49%
$CRM FCF Margins expanded from 21.6% to 32.8% from 2020-2025 🔥
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $2.99
•2025: $10.20
•CAGR: 27.81%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2020 Shares Outstanding: 850M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 974M
By increasing its shares outstanding ~14.5%, $CRM diluted its EPS by ~13% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 77.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 20.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS & ~12% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $CRM has to grow earnings at a 12.69% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be near the (12.69%) required growth rate:
2026E: $11.17 (9.5% YoY) *FY Jan
2027E: $12.54 (12.2% YoY)
2028E: $14.58 (16.3% YoY)
$CRM has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $CRM ends 2028 with $14.58 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
27x P/E: $393.66💵 … ~14.4% CAGR
26x P/E: $379.08💵 … ~12.8% CAGR
25x P/E: $364.50💵 … ~11.2% CAGR
24x P/E: $349.92💵 … ~9.5% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume >25x earnings for $CRM to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple justified by its growth rate, predictability, & moat)
Today at $278💵 $CRM appears to be worthwhile consideration for investment especially when you assess the trajectory of the company’s FCF & Net Income margins (steadily trending higher with room to expand)
To ensure some margin of safety, if there’s further weakness, it could be wise to piece into the position, for example:
Initiating ~50% of the position at ~$283💵 & adding a second tranche at ~$230💵 or at ~20x NTM earnings
At $230💵 I consider $CRM a strong consideration with a substantial margin of safety
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 �[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $CRM 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 25.38x
•3-Year Mean: 28.15x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.93%
•3-Year Mean: 4.39%
As you can see, $CRM appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share & ~12% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $CRM is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $14.03B
•Long-Term Debt: $8.43B
$CRM has an excellent balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 43x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗
•2021: 0.9%
•2022: 0.8%
•2023: 2.5%
•2024: 8.2%
•2025: 10.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2021: 10.8%
•2022: 2.9%
•2023: 0.4%
•2024: 7.0%
•2025: 10.3%
$CRM return metrics are ok, although more recently trending in the right direction
REVENUES✅
•2020: $17.10B
•2025: $37.90B
•CAGR: 17.25%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $3.69B
•2025: $12.43B
•CAGR: 27.49%
$CRM FCF Margins expanded from 21.6% to 32.8% from 2020-2025 🔥
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $2.99
•2025: $10.20
•CAGR: 27.81%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2020 Shares Outstanding: 850M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 974M
By increasing its shares outstanding ~14.5%, $CRM diluted its EPS by ~13% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 77.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 20.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS & ~12% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $CRM has to grow earnings at a 12.69% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be near the (12.69%) required growth rate:
2026E: $11.17 (9.5% YoY) *FY Jan
2027E: $12.54 (12.2% YoY)
2028E: $14.58 (16.3% YoY)
$CRM has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $CRM ends 2028 with $14.58 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
27x P/E: $393.66💵 … ~14.4% CAGR
26x P/E: $379.08💵 … ~12.8% CAGR
25x P/E: $364.50💵 … ~11.2% CAGR
24x P/E: $349.92💵 … ~9.5% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume >25x earnings for $CRM to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple justified by its growth rate, predictability, & moat)
Today at $278💵 $CRM appears to be worthwhile consideration for investment especially when you assess the trajectory of the company’s FCF & Net Income margins (steadily trending higher with room to expand)
To ensure some margin of safety, if there’s further weakness, it could be wise to piece into the position, for example:
Initiating ~50% of the position at ~$283💵 & adding a second tranche at ~$230💵 or at ~20x NTM earnings
At $230💵 I consider $CRM a strong consideration with a substantial margin of safety
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 �[...]
Offshore
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Investing visuals
$TSLA: a declining business today, a flourishing business in the future? https://t.co/E4ObxhRU2r
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$TSLA: a declining business today, a flourishing business in the future? https://t.co/E4ObxhRU2r
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Wall St Engine
Trump says he is recommending a 50% tariff on EU, starting on June 1, 2025 https://t.co/J8usAGSG60
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Trump says he is recommending a 50% tariff on EU, starting on June 1, 2025 https://t.co/J8usAGSG60
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App Economy Insights
👓 Are glasses the new phones?
From Google IO to OpenAI io.
What we learned this week.
https://t.co/mvBUgCfDA8
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👓 Are glasses the new phones?
From Google IO to OpenAI io.
What we learned this week.
https://t.co/mvBUgCfDA8
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Senator Michael Bennet has proposed legislation to ban members of Congress from ever becoming lobbyists https://t.co/hZ5V5N48Rz
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JUST IN: Senator Michael Bennet has proposed legislation to ban members of Congress from ever becoming lobbyists https://t.co/hZ5V5N48Rz
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Investing visuals
$MELI's revenue growth is pure eye candy for any investor. https://t.co/gxGISrkcdF
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$MELI's revenue growth is pure eye candy for any investor. https://t.co/gxGISrkcdF
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