Wall St Engine
$TGT | Target Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $23.85B (Est. $24.35B) 🔴; DOWN -2.8% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $1.30 (Est. $1.65) 🔴
FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: Now expects low-single-digit decline (Previously: growth) 🔴
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $7.00–$9.00 (Prior: $8.80–$9.80, Est. $8.43) 🔴
Q1 Comparable Sales:
🔹 Total Comp Sales: -3.8% (Est. -1.96%) 🔴
🔹 Comp Store Sales: -5.7%
🔹 Comp Digital Sales: +4.7%
🔹 Same-Day Delivery (via Target Circle 360): +36% YoY
Other Metrics:
🔹 Operating Income: $1.5B; UP +13.6% YoY
🔹 Adj Operating Margin: 3.7% (Excludes settlement impact)
🔹 SG&A Expense Rate: 19.3% (vs. 21.0% YoY); Adjusted SG&A Rate: 21.7%
🔹 Interest Expense: $116M (vs. $106M YoY)
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 25.0% (vs. 22.7% YoY)
Strategic and Operational Updates:
🔸 Designer collaboration with Kate Spade was Target’s strongest in over a decade
🔸 Seasonal sales during Valentine’s Day and Easter outperformed non-seasonal periods
🔸 A new multi-year "acceleration office" launched, led by Michael Fiddelke, to improve agility and drive long-term growth
🔸 Settlement of credit card interchange fee litigation added $593M in pre-tax gains in Q1
Capital Allocation:
🔹 Dividend Paid: $510M (UP +1.8% YoY)
🔹 Share Buybacks: $251M; 2.2M shares at avg. $114.60
🔹 Remaining Buyback Authorization: $8.4B
🔹 ROIC (Trailing 12 Months): 15.1% (vs. 15.4% YoY)
CEO Brian Cornell’s Commentary:
🔸 "While our sales fell short of expectations, digital grew healthily, with Target Circle 360 driving 36% YoY same-day delivery growth. Kate Spade for Target was our strongest designer collaboration in over a decade. We’re not satisfied with current performance and have initiated leadership changes and strategic acceleration to unlock future growth."
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$TGT | Target Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $23.85B (Est. $24.35B) 🔴; DOWN -2.8% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $1.30 (Est. $1.65) 🔴
FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: Now expects low-single-digit decline (Previously: growth) 🔴
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $7.00–$9.00 (Prior: $8.80–$9.80, Est. $8.43) 🔴
Q1 Comparable Sales:
🔹 Total Comp Sales: -3.8% (Est. -1.96%) 🔴
🔹 Comp Store Sales: -5.7%
🔹 Comp Digital Sales: +4.7%
🔹 Same-Day Delivery (via Target Circle 360): +36% YoY
Other Metrics:
🔹 Operating Income: $1.5B; UP +13.6% YoY
🔹 Adj Operating Margin: 3.7% (Excludes settlement impact)
🔹 SG&A Expense Rate: 19.3% (vs. 21.0% YoY); Adjusted SG&A Rate: 21.7%
🔹 Interest Expense: $116M (vs. $106M YoY)
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 25.0% (vs. 22.7% YoY)
Strategic and Operational Updates:
🔸 Designer collaboration with Kate Spade was Target’s strongest in over a decade
🔸 Seasonal sales during Valentine’s Day and Easter outperformed non-seasonal periods
🔸 A new multi-year "acceleration office" launched, led by Michael Fiddelke, to improve agility and drive long-term growth
🔸 Settlement of credit card interchange fee litigation added $593M in pre-tax gains in Q1
Capital Allocation:
🔹 Dividend Paid: $510M (UP +1.8% YoY)
🔹 Share Buybacks: $251M; 2.2M shares at avg. $114.60
🔹 Remaining Buyback Authorization: $8.4B
🔹 ROIC (Trailing 12 Months): 15.1% (vs. 15.4% YoY)
CEO Brian Cornell’s Commentary:
🔸 "While our sales fell short of expectations, digital grew healthily, with Target Circle 360 driving 36% YoY same-day delivery growth. Kate Spade for Target was our strongest designer collaboration in over a decade. We’re not satisfied with current performance and have initiated leadership changes and strategic acceleration to unlock future growth."
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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Gerry Connolly just passed away this morning: https://t.co/p7w4whHMJu
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Representative Gerry Connolly just passed away this morning: https://t.co/p7w4whHMJu
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Novo Nordisk $NVO credit rating upgraded to AA from AA- by S&P Global $SPGI ✅
Don’t miss the fourth photo❗️
I believe few investors truly grasp the potential of GLP-1s:
•Reduces chronic disease risks
•Addresses obesity
•Reduces cardiovascular risks
•Delays neurodegenerative disorders (e.g. Alzheimer’s)
•Lowers cancer risk (e.g. colon cancer)
•Enhances metabolic health
•Decreases reliance on other meds
•Minimizes invasive treatments
•Combats addiction
•Could slow aging
•Lowers healthcare costs
$NVO trades for ~16x NTM earnings, near its lowest valuation in the last decade
$NVO has averaged a 59% ROIC over the past 20 years
$NVO has $6.02B in cash & $13.96B in long-term debt
With all this being said, and down -55% from all time highs, today $NVO is a strong consideration for investment at $67💵
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Novo Nordisk $NVO credit rating upgraded to AA from AA- by S&P Global $SPGI ✅
Don’t miss the fourth photo❗️
I believe few investors truly grasp the potential of GLP-1s:
•Reduces chronic disease risks
•Addresses obesity
•Reduces cardiovascular risks
•Delays neurodegenerative disorders (e.g. Alzheimer’s)
•Lowers cancer risk (e.g. colon cancer)
•Enhances metabolic health
•Decreases reliance on other meds
•Minimizes invasive treatments
•Combats addiction
•Could slow aging
•Lowers healthcare costs
$NVO trades for ~16x NTM earnings, near its lowest valuation in the last decade
$NVO has averaged a 59% ROIC over the past 20 years
$NVO has $6.02B in cash & $13.96B in long-term debt
With all this being said, and down -55% from all time highs, today $NVO is a strong consideration for investment at $67💵
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Investing visuals
$PLTR vs. $SNOW: not all companies are created equally. https://t.co/0B2Nq2hxX8
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$PLTR vs. $SNOW: not all companies are created equally. https://t.co/0B2Nq2hxX8
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Offshore
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: We just received data on a new congressional crypto trade.
Representative Guy Reschenthaler just filed a sale of up to $15K of Solana, $SOL. https://t.co/zmCtVoPyM0
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BREAKING: We just received data on a new congressional crypto trade.
Representative Guy Reschenthaler just filed a sale of up to $15K of Solana, $SOL. https://t.co/zmCtVoPyM0
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Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
Google's Innovator's Dilemma: Sundar Answers the Bell with AI Mode in Search
@friedberg:
"You're at a pivotal moment in the company's history today. Have you read The Innovator's Dilemma?"
@sundarpichai:
"I'm obviously very, very familiar with the concept."
"I don't think I've read the book actually."
"But you know, it's one of those things which is so much in the ether, you think you know it."
Friedberg:
"I say it in jest because that's the talk of the town."
"The talk on Wall Street, the talk in Silicon Valley, is Google getting disrupted in this moment?"
"Consumers are asking AI questions through chat interfaces. They're getting complete answers. They're engaging with AI systems in a way that they traditionally didn't do with the classical search interface."
"Is Google at risk of being truly disrupted from AI?"
"Is the core search business, which the ad revenue on search is about a $200B run rate out of $360B of your total revenue, most of your profits."
"Is Google being disrupted by AI at this moment, or is Google leading?"
Sundar:
"I viewed this as an extraordinary opportunity for search."
"We launched AI Overviews about a year ago."
"Getting the feedback from AI Overviews, recently, we are testing it in labs, this whole new dedicated AI experience called AI Mode coming to Search."
"And in AI mode you can have a full-on AI experience in Search, including follow on conversational queries."
"People are typing in queries like literally long paragraphs. So we are seeing people respond."
"We kind of know what works. Users are our North Star. And empirically we see that people are engaging more and using the product more, right?"
"So to your question about innovator's dilemma, I think the dilemma only exists if you treat it as a dilemma."
"All along in technology you have these massive periods of innovation and you lean into it as hard as you can. It's the only way to do it."
tweet
Google's Innovator's Dilemma: Sundar Answers the Bell with AI Mode in Search
@friedberg:
"You're at a pivotal moment in the company's history today. Have you read The Innovator's Dilemma?"
@sundarpichai:
"I'm obviously very, very familiar with the concept."
"I don't think I've read the book actually."
"But you know, it's one of those things which is so much in the ether, you think you know it."
Friedberg:
"I say it in jest because that's the talk of the town."
"The talk on Wall Street, the talk in Silicon Valley, is Google getting disrupted in this moment?"
"Consumers are asking AI questions through chat interfaces. They're getting complete answers. They're engaging with AI systems in a way that they traditionally didn't do with the classical search interface."
"Is Google at risk of being truly disrupted from AI?"
"Is the core search business, which the ad revenue on search is about a $200B run rate out of $360B of your total revenue, most of your profits."
"Is Google being disrupted by AI at this moment, or is Google leading?"
Sundar:
"I viewed this as an extraordinary opportunity for search."
"We launched AI Overviews about a year ago."
"Getting the feedback from AI Overviews, recently, we are testing it in labs, this whole new dedicated AI experience called AI Mode coming to Search."
"And in AI mode you can have a full-on AI experience in Search, including follow on conversational queries."
"People are typing in queries like literally long paragraphs. So we are seeing people respond."
"We kind of know what works. Users are our North Star. And empirically we see that people are engaging more and using the product more, right?"
"So to your question about innovator's dilemma, I think the dilemma only exists if you treat it as a dilemma."
"All along in technology you have these massive periods of innovation and you lean into it as hard as you can. It's the only way to do it."
tweet